2030: a look into the crystal ball - university of manitoba · 2020. 11. 2. ·...
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10.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptxWinnipeg, Manitoba – February 18, 2010
2030: A look into the crystal ball
210.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
What happens when humans predict their future?
CREATIVITY
"Everything that can be invented
has been invented."
Charles Duell,
US patent office, 1899
MEDIA
"Who the hell wants to hear actors
talk?"
H.M. Warner, co-founder of Warner
Brothers, 1927
TRANSPORT
"Heavier-than-air flying machines
are impossible."
Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal
Society, 1895
EQUALITY
"If anything remains more or less
unchanged, it is the role of
women."
David Riesman, Conservative
American social scientist, 1967
CREATIVITY
"Everything that can be
invented has been
invented."
Charles Duell,
US patent office, 1899
MEDIA
"Who the hell wants to
hear actors talk?"
H.M. Warner, co-founder of
Warner Brothers, 1927
TRANSPORT
"Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible."
Lord Kelvin, President of the
Royal Society, 1895
EQUALITY
"If anything remains more
or less unchanged, it is the
role of women."
David Riesman,
Conservative American
social scientist, 1967
Source: Roland Berger
310.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
2030: Consumer needs, values and lifestyles have been shaped by changes in some key areas
Source: Roland Berger
POPULATION GROWTH
TRANSPORTATIONINNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
URBANIZATION
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
410.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Around 2030, Canada will boast approximately 39 million people
Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030
POPULATION GROWTH
GETTING OLDER [%] … …BUT STEADY GROWTH [IN M PEOPLE]
7.1
7.67.84.6
4.54.33.7
3.8
3.9
65 years and over
45 to 64 years
30 to 44 years
20 to 29 years
15 to 19 years
5 to 14 years
Under 5 years
2031
39
9.1
10.0
2.1
1.8
2021
9.6
2.2
1.7
37
6.8
10.1
2.0
1.8
2010
34
4.7
21%21% 20%
14%12% 11%
11% 10% 10%
5% 5%
7%
19%
27%
5%
2010
34
14%
28%
2031
39
23%
26%
5%
5%
2021
37
510.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
For the first time in Canadian history, the share of older exceeds the one of younger generations
Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger
15
171922
62
70696868
23
15
13130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20312015200620011981
10
15-64 years0-14 years >65 years
POPULATION GROWTH
Demographic change over time [%]
TODAY
610.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
This historic change will be underlined by two main factors
Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger
POPULATION GROWTH
NATURAL INCREASE
DOWN BY ~100% AND
NEGATIVE GROWTH
AFTER 2030
NET MIGRATION UP BY
~22%
710.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
TorontoLondon
Kitchener
Hamilton
Oshawa
Windsor
Barrie
Montréal
Québec
Sherbrooke
Ottawa/
Gatineau
Vancouver
Victoria
Calgary
Edmonton
Saskatoon
ReginaWinnipeg
St. Catharines-Niagara
Halifax
NYCPhiladelphia
Boston
Seattle
Portland
Eugene
Chicago
Detroit
Indianapolis Cincinnati
Cleveland
Toronto
London
Kitchener
Hamilton
Oshawa
Windsor
Barrie
Montréal
Québec
Sherbrooke
Ottawa/
Gatineau
Vancouver
Victoria
Calgary
Edmonton
Saskatoon
ReginaWinnipeg
St. Catharines-
Niagara Halifax
CANADA
USA
Even more people will live in urban, densely populated areas
Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger
URBANIZATION
% change in population by 2030
> 20%, Average annual
growth exceeds Canada
High density zone
> 10%
< 10%
< 0%
Size of bubble = city population in 2030
810.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Urbanization comes with side effects
Impact of congestion
• Cost increase
• Fuel consumption
• Congestion charges
• Possible road use charges based on vehicle application, (i.e., business vs. personal travel)
• Travel Time
• Policy making
Source: Source: INRIX traffic scorecard, MEMA, Roland Berger
URBANIZATION
910.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Energy consumption grows – dependence on oil continues
Source: National Energy Board, EIA, Roland Berger
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY END-USE
SECTOR, 1990-2030 [PETAJOULES]
SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL, 1990-2030
[% SHARE]
2,000 2,500 2,700 3,000 3,700
1,300
1,4501,600
1,700
1,800
6,000
1,700
2010
11,000
5,100
1,600
2005
10,250
4,800
1,500
1990
8,100
3,800
1,000
+30%
2030
14,300
6,600
2,200
2015
12,400
Residential TransportationCommercial Industrial
42% 42% 46% 50%
29% 27%
2%
2030
17%
2015
100%
16%
5%6%
100100100
2004
2%
18%
3%6%
31%
1990
100
2%6%
31%
19%
Petroleum
Electric
Other Natural Gas
Biofuels/Emerging energy
1010.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
We expect environmental policies to be strengthened globally, with stricter legislation focused on sustainability
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
Source: National Energy Board, Statistics Canada, Roland Berger
FE
DE
RA
L
OTHER POLICIESTURNING THE CORNER
An action plan to reduce GHG and air
pollution (20% reduction from 2006
levels by 2020)
…Specifically targeted at transportation
industry
PR
OV
INC
IAL
VISION FOR CLEAN ENERGY LEADERSHIP
British Columbia
CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMISSIONS MGMT AMENDMENT ACT
AlbertaGREEN ENERGY ACT
Ontario
ENERGY STRATEGY
QuebecPOLICY DIRECTIVES
Nova Scotia
1110.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
To limit global warming, CO2-emissions have to be reduced on a global basis – transportation one of key contributors
1) IEA (International Energy Agency); 2) 450 parts per million CO2 equivalent in the atmosphere
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008; Roland Berger
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FORECAST1) [GT CO2]
> Reference scenario
– 45% increase in CO2 emissions until 2030
– Likely to lead to >5 C global warming
– No changes in existing
> Scenario 4502)
– Major CO2
reductions need to keep global warming <2 C
22%
44%
34%27.9
23%
41%
36%
Transpor-
tation
Power
generation
Other
40.6
45%
Scen.
450
Ref.
scen
.
22%
36.4
33%
Scen.
450
Ref.
scen
.2020 20302006 2040 2050
32.5
25.7
Scenario 4502)
Reference
Scenario
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
1210.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
1) Only 50% of group sales have to comply with NOx standard; 100% in 2010; 2) Introduction in Shanghai already in 1999; 3) Based on European standards; 4) For domestic new vehicles
EURO III
0.7
EPA 07EPA 10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 20122010 2013 20142000 2001 20021999
0.10
EURO II EURO IV
3.5
EURO V
EPA 04
EURO IVEURO V4)
EURO II
EURO IVEURO III
0.02
0.013
2015
0.01
0.4
0.01
2030
0.02
3.5
0.1
5.0
EURO IVEURO III
EURO V
0.02
2.0
EURO VI
EURO IV
EURO V
0.01
0.4
EURO VI
>EURO VI5.0
>EURO IV
0.01
0.4
>EURO
VI
>EURO
VI
0.013
0.27
>EPA
101.51)
EURO III
EPA 98
EURO I2)
EURO II
Note: Carbon monoxide (CO) and Hydrocarbons (HC) are also subject to regulations; not displayed here
Significant progress has been made on emissions standards – no further regulation expected
Source: Press; dieselnet; govt. websites; Roland Berger
g/kWh
NOx PM
3)
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
1310.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
By 2030, most countries will have enforced similar – strict -CO2 standards.
CO2 emission standards for
commercial vehicles expected
Euro V
Euro IV
Euro II/EPA 94
Euro III/EPA 98
Euro VI / EPA 10
Str
onge
r sta
ndar
ds
Not in focus of study
Forecast emission standards for commercial vehicles, 2030
Source: Delphi; DieselNet; Press; Roland Berger
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
1410.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
PE
RS
ON
AL
IND
US
TR
IAL
ME
DIC
AL
Technology and innovation take an ever-increasing role in shaping consumers' lifestyles
Source: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline, Roland Berger
INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
2008 2030
Mood-
sensitive
home decor
Wearable
computer
Dream
machines
Robotic
surgery
Fully auto-
piloted cars
Accelerated
schooling
3D
printers
Artificial
eyes
Synthetic
bacteria
Childcare
robots
Gene-
based
diets
Sleep
surrogates
Location
device
implanted
into pets
Road
reservation
system
Full voice
interaction
with PC
Computers
that write
most of
their own
software
Face
recognition
doors
Anti-noise
technology
in gardens
Holo-
graphic
TV
Virtual
holidays
Video
wallpaper
Single
global
currency
Self-
repairing
roads
Intelligent
cosmetics
Space
factories
Memory
enhance-
ment in
humans
1510.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Vehicle improvements
Hybrids
Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cells
AlternativeFuels
Powertrainimprovements
There is a broad variety of fields that might help meet future standards
Customer financial benefit
Challenges to be solved
Potential of CO2
reduction
Commer-cial
availability
1) Including improvements on diesel/oil
PO
WE
RT
RA
INF
UE
LS
Other challenges
VE
HIC
LE
Source: Roland Berger
DE
SIG
NM
AT
ER
IAL
SP
RO
CE
SS
ES
INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
1610.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Two powertrain scenarios are likely for 2030, depending on different underlying hypotheses
Source: Roland Berger
CHANGES IN MARKET SHARE
PHEV/EV Fuel based vehicle
AGGRESSIVE: "THE FUTURE DRIVES ELECTRIC"MODERATE: "DOWNSIZED MOBILITY"
Fuels > Fossil fuel prices rising> Fossil fuel prices stabilize at a high level
> Syn/bio fuel prices high> Relative market price decrease for syn/bio fuels
Infrastructure > Charging infrastructure rapidly growing (urban, suburban)
> No hydrogen network
> Charging infrastructure limited to cities> CNG/LPG in major regions > No hydrogen network
Legislation > High tax penalties for high emission cars> Restrictions to enter mega cities with non-ZEV
> Limited regulatory pressure
Customer > Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars)
> Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars)
Technology > Cost efficient batteries> Cost efficient advanced ICE
PHEV/EV Adv. fuel combustion
Alternative fuelsRoland Berger forecast
INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
1710.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
A larger portion of commercial vehicles will have hybrid technology
Source: Roland Berger
SHARE OF HYBRID VEHICLES IN CLASS 4 & 5 SALES [%]
> Penetration will
differ by customer
group – fleets to
adopt first
> Regulations will
support hybrids, but
business case still a
challenge
2020
~20-25%
2015
~15%
2010
~1-2%
2008
0%
CURRENT FORECAST
INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
1810.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
HYBRIDS GROW TO 15-
25% OF SELECT
COMMERCIAL TRUCKS
Given these new developments, what does mobility look like in 2030?
TRANSPORTATION
Source: Roland Berger
PHEVs AND EVs ARE
MORE POPULAR IN
N. AMERICAN
AUTOMOTIVE MARKET
AIR TRAVEL GOES
SUBORBITAL
PUBLIC
TRANSPORTATION
GOES CROSS-COUNTRY
AND CONNECTS
CANADA TO THE WORLD
1910.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Ontario East
Public transportation will see significant changes – Federal and provincial investments are underway in key corridors
Source: National Policy Framework, Roland Berger
TRANSPORTATION
Together handle 73% of trucking traffic value
Hubs
Federal/provincial investments Existing transportation paths
Proposed transportation paths
WINDSOR
FORT ERIE
QUEENSTONSARNIA
LACOLLE
PACIFIC
HIGHWAY
Vancouver Calgary
Edmonton
Regina
Saskatoon
Minneapolis
Winnipeg
ChicagoDetroit
Montreal
Halifax
Toronto
2010.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
1
By 2030, we expect further advancements in today's technology to create a fully intelligent transportation system
INTELLIGENT VEHICLES INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE
Collision notification
Collision warning
Driver assistance
Emergency
management systems
Commercial vehicle
operations
Intermodal freight
Crash prevention and
safety
Roadway operations &
maintenance
Roadway weather
management
Information
management
Traveler information
Electronic pay
system
Incident management
Arterial management
Freeway
management
Transit management
systems
TRANSPORTATION
Auto-pilot vehicles
Source: ITSA.org, Roland Berger
2110.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
In conclusion… what does life look like in 2030?
Source: Roland Berger
PEOPLE
WORK
TRAVEL
HOUSING
2030
2210.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptxSource: Roland Berger
There will be more of us, and we will live longer
Most of us will live in densely populated cities along the Canada-US borders
We'll travel near and far, and in very different ways
We'll still be (very) hungry for energy, but also more environmentally conscious
Our vehicles will be more efficient, and more "intelligent"
In conclusion… what does life look like in 2030?
2310.02.19-DTW-RBI-Canada 2030-F WITH AB NOTES.pptx
Thank you, and remember… predictions are only predictions
CREATIVITY
"Everything that can be
invented has been
invented."
Charles Duell,
US patent office, 1899
MEDIA
"Who the hell wants to
hear actors talk?"
H.M. Warner, co-founder of
Warner Brothers, 1927
TRANSPORT
"Heavier-than-air flying
machines are impossible."
Lord Kelvin, President of the
Royal Society, 1895
EQUALITY
"If anything remains more
or less unchanged, it is the
role of women."
David Riesman,
Conservative American
social scientist, 1967