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Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

Montréal 29 September 2010

Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO

Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section

Montréal 29 September 2010

ContentContent

Data

Trends

Forecasts

Impact on stakeholders

Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecastsMonitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts

FORECASTINGFORECASTINGMARKET

ANALYSESMARKET

ANALYSES

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STATISTICSSTATISTICS

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Regional traffic overview for 2009 Regional traffic overview for 2009

North AmericaTraffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.7% Load Factor: +0.7 Pt

Europe Traffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: +0.3 Pt

Middle East

Asia PacificTraffic: -0.2%Capacity: -0.9% Load Factor: +0.6 Pt

Latin America Traffic: 0.9%Capacity: 2.2% Load Factor: -0.9 Pt

Africa Traffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: -0.7 Pt

Middle EastTraffic: 9.1%Capacity: 11.9% Load Factor: -1.9 Pt

Load Factor: +0.6 Pt

World Traffic: -2.0%Capacity: -2.2% Load Factor: +0.2 Pt

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Tra

Billio

LCCsNon Scheduled carriersLegacy carriers

Low Cost Carriers progression Low Cost Carriers progression

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

affic

ons RPK

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Market shares* achievedMarket shares* achieved

North America Africa *

3%

International passenger International passenger traffictraffic**** Domestic passenger Domestic passenger

traffictraffic****Africa *

International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger trafficInternational traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic

* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region

Europe 41%

Latin America4%

North America 17%

Asia Pacific 25%

3%

Middle East 10%

North America

55%

Africa *1%

Middle East 1%

Latin America 5%

Europe 8%

Asia Pacific 30%

**Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre

Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impactTraffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact

North America

World

Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012

4.3%

Regional traffic* growth forecastsRegional traffic* growth forecasts

Source: ICAO

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

RPKs Growth in %

1999-2009 average growth

*Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs

Forecasting : basis of any effective planningForecasting : basis of any effective planning

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�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)

Air travel demand drivers

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Tra

ffic

& y

ield

gro

wth

in %

4

5

Traffic growth Real Yield growthReal GDP growth Sep 2010

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Tra

ffic

& y

ield

gro

wth

in %

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GD

P g

row

th in

%

Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight

450500550600

1979

: Ind

ex B

ase

100

World Real GDPWorld Passenger trafficWorld Cargo traffic

Air transport Air transport vsvs Economic growthEconomic growth

100150200250300350400450

1979

19811983198519

871989199119

931995199719

992001200320

0520

072009

1979

: Ind

ex B

ase

100

Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight

Factors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growth

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ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization

40%

50%

60%

40%

50%Number of frequenciesNumber of country-pair routes

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Air transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangements

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995 1999 2004 20090%

10%

20%

30%

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Number of LCCs : 13Deregulation : 1978

Number of LCCs : 33Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%

Network carriers

86%

LCCs

14%

Network carriers

79%

LCCs

21%

Number of LCCs : 48

Deregulation : 1987- 1997

Liberalization: a necessary frame for Low Cost Carriers development

Deregulation : accelerating

Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10

Deregulation : uneven

Number of LCCs : 10

Deregulation : in progress

LCCs development by region

79%

Network carriers

76%

LCCs

24%

Network carriers

91%

LCCs

9%

Source: ICAO

Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitionsToward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitions

3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic

Most well-known Non Aligned airlines

The new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodology

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Emerging markets lead the recovery

Favoring the expansion of some regional air travel marketsFavoring the expansion of some regional air travel markets

Real GDP growth change in % Real GDP growth change in %

� China: 586 B$� India: 8.1 B$� China: 586 B$� India: 8.1 B$

Economic Stimulus planEconomic Stimulus plan

Source: IHS Global Insight, Sep 2010

*BRIC: Brazil Russia India China

Rea

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China & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growthChina & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growth

Top ten traffic flows in 2030Top ten traffic flows in 2030

20-Year Growth % % World RPKs2.6% 15.0%7.9% 10.7%4.3% 7.4%2.6% 5.7%6.7% 4.1%6.7% 4.1%5.3% 3.6%7.8% 3.5%5.0% 3.3%5.9% 3.1%9.0% 2.9%

10000

12000

14000

Wor

ld tr

affic

in B

illio

n R

PK

sLong-term traffic forecast resultsLong-term traffic forecast results

High Scenario

Forecasts

Most Likely scenario��

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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Wor

ld tr

affic

in B

illio

n R

PK

s

Low scenario

History

Source: ICAO

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Regional* passenger traffic forecastsRegional* passenger traffic forecasts

Region Growth2010-2030

Share2030

Growth2010-2030

Share2030

North America 3.9 14 2.6 40

Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5

Pax Traffic International (%) Domestic (%) Total (%)

Growth2010-2030

Share2030

3 23

4.1 25Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5

Asia/Pacific 5.7 32 7.1 47

Latin America 6.1 5 5.3 6

Africa 4.7 3 4.8 1

Middle East 5.2 9 4.8 1

WORLD 4.8 100 4.4 100

*Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs growth and market shares

4.1 25

6.3 38

5.8 5.5

4.7 2.5

5.2 6

4.7 100

Aircraft movements’ forecast methodologyAircraft movements’ forecast methodology

�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :

�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :

Available seat-kilometres =Revenue passenger-

kilometresAverage load factorAverage load factor

Aircraft-kilometres =

Available seat-kilometres

Average aircraft seating capacity

Aircraft movements =

Aircraft-kilometres

Average stage length

2030 Aircraft movements’ forecast2030 Aircraft movements’ forecast

Africa, 2.0%

World total aircraft movements in 2030: 51.708

Asia Pacific, 31.7%

Europe, 23.3%

Latin America, 7.7%

Middle East, 2.9%

North America, 32.3%

Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus , 1975-2009

2000

2500

3000

Nu

mb

er o

f Air

craf

t

Orders1473

1095

2871

Strong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturersStrong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturers

0

500

1000

1500

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989199

1199

3199

5199

7199

9200

1200

3200

5200

7200

9201

1201

3201

5

Nu

mb

er o

f Air

craf

t

Deliveries

715

1473

443

Source: aircraft manufacturers

DeliveriesForecasts

Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth

979

452

Consolidating various ICAO data sourcesConsolidating various ICAO data sources

� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities

� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing,

� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities

� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, (USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training

� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel

� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances

� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology

(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training

� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel

� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances

� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology

*SAAQ: State Aviation Activity Questionnaire

2010 Licensed aviation personnel population2010 Licensed aviation personnel population

NORTH AMERICAICAO

Pilots 290211Mechanics 355009

EUROPEICAO

Pilots 85306Mechanics 85183ATCOs 27401

ASIA PACIFICICAO

Pilots 50344

MIDDLE EASTICAO


LATIN AMERICAICAO




AFRICAICAO

Pilots 4258Mechanics 21906ATCOs

WORLDICAO


80% of the States have a mandatory retirement age of 65 years for pilots

1764

Source: ICAO

Future pilots requirements* vs training capacitiesFuture pilots requirements* vs training capacities

EuropePilots Capacity

ICAO 15 552 7 955

North AmericaPilots Needs Capacity

ICAO 10 449 27 655Middle East

Pilots CapacityICAO 2 458 860

Most likely scenario

*Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters

Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities

Asia / PacificPilots Capacity

ICAO 13 983 4 935

AfricaPilots Capacity

ICAO 3 814 1 010

Pilots capacityICAO 6 250 1 945

Latin America

Pilots Capacity

ICAO 52 506 44 360

World

Source: ICAO preliminary figures

ICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation ProfessionalsICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation Professionals

�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics

�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»

�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics

�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»

�� Facilitating the use of competencyFacilitating the use of competency--based based approachesapproaches

�� Removing regulatory obstaclesRemoving regulatory obstacles

�� A coordinating mechanism is requiredA coordinating mechanism is required

�� Facilitating the use of competencyFacilitating the use of competency--based based approachesapproaches

�� Removing regulatory obstaclesRemoving regulatory obstacles

�� A coordinating mechanism is requiredA coordinating mechanism is required

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