2017 electric vehicle demand forecast

2017 Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast

Distribution Forecast Working Group

Mark Palmere

May 16, 2018

Transportation Energy Forecasting Unit

Demand Analysis Office

Energy Assessments Division

1

Transportation Demand Cases

▪ Transportation Demand Cases

High Electricity Demand (High Case)• Inputs selected to represent high level of electricity demand

Mid Electricity Demand (Mid Case)

Low Electricity Demand (Low Case)• Inputs selected to represent low level of electricity demand

▪ Inputs

– Income, population, fuel prices, vehicle attributes

2

Cases represent different levels oftransportation electricity demand

Plug-in Electric Vehicle ScenariosPEV SCENARIOS

INPUTS Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend

PREFERENCES

Consumers' PEV Preference

Constant at 2017 LevelIncrease with PEV market

growthIncrease with PEV market



growth

INCENTIVES

Federal Tax Credit Eliminated after 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Constant through 2030 Constant through 2030

State Rebate To 2019 To 2025 To 2025 To 2030 To 2030

HOV Lane Access To 2021 To 2025 To 2025To 2025 for PHEV / 2030

for BEVTo 2025 for PHEV / 2030

for BEV

ATTRIBUTES

Availability of PEVs (in 2030)

PEV models available in 11of 15 CEC LDV classes




PEV models available in all CEC LDV classes

Vehicle / Battery Price (by 2030)

PEV prices based on battery price declining to

~$120/kWh


~$100/kWh


~$89/kWh


~$73/kWh

PEV prices reach parity with gasoline vehicles

Avg. Range (2030) ~230 miles ~230 miles ~270 miles ~270 miles ~270 miles

Refuel Time (2030) 15 -21 min 15 -21 min 10-16 min 10-16 min Same as gasoline

Time to Station (2030) 7-8 min Same as gasoline Same as gasoline Same as gasoline Same as gasoline by 2025

FORECAST RESULTS

PEV STOCK in 2030 2.6 million 3.3 million 3.9 million 5.3 million 5.9 million

Cost of State Rebate, 2018-2025

$577 million $4.2 billion $4.6 billion $5.2 billion $5.4 billion

Cost of State Rebate Extension, 2026-2030

- - - $7.1 billion $8.2 billion

3

Attribute ForecastsBattery Pack Cost Estimates

Largest Component Cost in Electric Vehicles

Projected # of Light-Duty ZEV Models Mid Case

4

BEV Range and Price

▪ Battery costs are falling…▪ But average price of BEVs

rose…“The average price of EVs rose again in 2016, but this reflects faster growth in more expensive models and does not take account of increases in driving range…reductions in battery costs are translating into longer ranges rather than lower vehicle prices”

- International Energy Agency

▪ TEFU is using a new metric to show relative decline in BEV prices.

▪ CEC Forecast of Avg. BEV Range:– 2015 forecast: Flat at ~115 miles– 2017 forecast: Rising to 240-280 miles

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Source: www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/average-ev-price-and-range.html

Transportation ModelsKey Inputs & Outputs

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HIGH

LOW

MID

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cu

mu

lati

ve S

tock

Mill

ion

s

Cumulative On-road BEVs, PHEVs, and FCEVs

ZEV and PHEV Stock Continues to Grow

State Rebate Discontinued after

2025

ARB ZEV Mid-term Review Compliance Estimates

Source: California Energy Commission, California Air Resources Board

7

Regional Distribution of EVsForecasting Zones

▪ California Energy Commission has divided the state into 20 zones when forecasting at the regional level.

▪ Zone lines are drawn in order to distinguish utility coverage.

▪ Larger utilities (SCE, PG&E, LADWP) serve multiple zones.

Regional Distribution of EVsCalculating Zone-level Population

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate statewide vehicle stock, by fuel, class, and vintage.

▪ To allocate stock at a regional level, we use data that are predictors of EV penetration rates.– These are household and per capita income data, which come from Moody’s and the

Department of Finance.

▪ Regression equations are used to estimate PEV distribution by forecast zone.

• BEV Stock = f (Households, Per Capita Income)

• PHEV Stock = f (Households, Per Capita Income)

Regional Distribution of EVsElectricity Consumption Accounting For Travel Differences

▪ Calculate avg. annual VMT by county and year. (Source: ARB’s EMFAC)– Divide total VMT by forecast of total vehicles in each county.

▪ Calculate “VMT Ratio” for each forecast zone, where

𝑉𝑀𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑓𝑧, 𝑡 =𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑣𝑔. 𝑉𝑀𝑇𝑓𝑧, 𝑡

𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑣𝑔. 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑤𝑖𝑑𝑒 𝑉𝑀𝑇𝑡

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate state electricity consumption from all EVs.

▪ Convert to electricity consumption by forecast zone multiplying VMT and vehicle ratios by statewide electricity demand.

Regional Distribution of EVsCalculating Electricity Consumption

▪ Transportation energy demand models calculate state electricity consumption from all EVs.

▪ Convert to electricity consumption by forecast with the following equations:

BEV𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑧, 𝐵𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐶𝐴, 𝐵𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 𝑥 𝐵𝐸𝑉 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑓𝑧, 𝑡 𝑥 𝑉𝑀𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑓𝑧, 𝑡

PHEV

𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑧, 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝐶𝐴, 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 𝑥 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝑉 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑓𝑧, 𝑡 𝑥 𝑉𝑀𝑇 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑓𝑧, 𝑡

𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑧, 𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑧, 𝐵𝐸𝑉, 𝑡 + 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑧, 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝑉, 𝑡

Regional Distribution of EVsResults

BEV and PHEV Population by Utility, Mid Case BEV and PHEV Electricity Consumption by Utility, Mid Case

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Veh

icle

Co

un

t

PG&E SCE SDG&E POUs

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

GW

h)

PG&E SCE SDG&E POUs

Thank You

For further questions, please contact:

– Laura Zaninovich, Transportation Energy Forecasting Unit Supervisor• [email protected]

– Aniss Bahreinian, Lead Transportation Forecaster• [email protected]

– Sudhakar Konala, ZEV Analysis• [email protected]

– Mark Palmere, Light Duty Vehicles• [email protected]

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2017 electric vehicle demand forecast

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