2016 shifting international trade routes tampa, fla. jan...
TRANSCRIPT
2016 Shifting International Trade Routes
Tampa, Fla. Jan.21-22´2016
“Marine Terminal Operator Perspectives”
Elaborated by Ricardo Sproesser
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(est)
Brazil – Port Volume (t) and TEU
Metric Tons (incl. Cntr) TEU
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Brazil - GDP growth (% per year)
Source: Antaq, Datamar (Compcont)
Source: IBGE (historical), World Bank (estimates 2016-18)
Tonnage
Containers
CAGR 4,3%
CAGR 4,7%
Brazil – Economics & Ports Stats
Top 6 out of 34 Ports (2014, t) – all cargoes
#3 Santos 94Mt (container, sugar, grains, etc)
#6 Paranagua 42Mt (container, grains, fertilizers, etc)
#4 Itaguaí 64Mt (iron ore)
Source: Antaq
#1 Itaqui 113Mt (iron ore)
#2 Vitoria 110Mt (iron ore)
#5 Sao Sebastiao 53Mt (oil)
49%
51%
Port Volume (2014, % tons)
Top 6 ports
Others
Total volume = 970Mt (2014)= 1.015Mt (2015 est)
Top 6 out of 23 Container Ports (2014)
#1 Santos 3.6M TEU#3 Paranagua 760K TEU
Source: Antaq
#5 Manaus 650K TEU
#4 Rio Grande 680K TEU
#2 Itajai & Navegantes 1.05M TEU#6 Itapoa 470K TEU
78%
22%
Container Volume (2014, % TEU)
Top 6 ports
Others
Total volume = 9.3M TEU (2014)= 9.7M TEU (2015 est)
62%
38%
Foreign Trade (2015, % tonnage)
Top 10 Countries Others
Country Market Share
(%)
Market Share
(% accum)
China 35,1% 35,1%
U.S.A. 6,5% 41,6%
Japan 4,8% 46,5%
The Netherlands 4,6% 51,1%
South Korea 2,7% 53,8%
Spain 1,8% 55,6%
India 1,7% 57,3%
Nigeria 1,6% 58,9%
Germany 1,6% 60,5%
Argentina 1,6% 62,0%
Others 38,0% 100,0%
Brazil – Foreign Trade Partners
Source: Foreign Trade Ministry (MDIC)
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operators in the near future
Devaluation of local currency (Real R$) reaching2/3 of its value in the last12 mos.
exports
imports
Possible reorganization ofservices considering trends for busier and not so busy traffics.
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operators in the near future (containers)
Deep Sea CAGR = 4%
Cabotage CAGR = 9,7%
hub & spoke effect
Source: Antaq
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Brazil –Deep Sea & Cabotage (TEU/yr)
Deep Sea (TEU) Cabotage (TEU)
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operators in the near future (containers)
Cabotage is favored due to:
Population concentrated within 300Km fromthe coast.
Restrictive law applicable to truck drivers onlong distance routes reduces the competitionfrom road services.
Long distance routes are not secure for high value goods.
Port capacity had been boosted, enabling theterminals to attend additional volume.
Privatization of roads with new toll charges.
Cost reduction of 20-30% compared totrucking.
New Panama Canal
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operators in the near future (containers)
2.3M TEU (2014)140K TEU (2014)
80K TEU (2014)
Volume attractionalso depending ontoll charges.!
380K TEU (2014)
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operatorsin the near future (agribusiness)
Produce Production ExportWorld
Market Share
Sugar 1st 1st 45%
Coffee 1st 1st 28%
Orange Juice 1st 1st 77%
Beef 2nd 1st 22%
Poultry 2nd 1st 35%
Soy beans 2nd 2nd 39%
Corn 3rd 2nd 17%
Soy oil 4th 2nd 12%
Soy bran 4th 2nd 22%
Pork meat 4th 4th 10%
Cotton 5th 3rd 10%
Brazil Agribusiness - World Ranking
Rapid growth of productionof soy and corn products:
- 2011 131Mt
- 2016 183Mt (est)
Sou
rce
: Co
nfe
de
raçã
o d
a A
gric
ult
ura
e P
ecu
ária
(C
NA
)2
01
4 -
20
15
Sou
rce
: C
on
fed
era
ção
da
Agr
icu
ltu
ra e
Pe
cuár
ia (
CN
A)
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operatorsin the near future (dry bulk – soy & corn)
New farming areas very distantfrom traditional ports.
New port capacity beingintroduced in the “North Arch”.
A-B-C-D players already operatingor to operate own terminals (riverand sea), in order to cope withfuture volumes.
New transport infrastructurebeing introduced (rail and road).
New Panama Canal
Drivers impacting Marine Terminal Operatorsin the near future (dry bulk - grains)
Closer toFar-East
Volume attractionalso depending ontoll charges.!
Deep Sea Cabotage
(mill
ion
met
ric
ton
s)
Source: Brazilian Port Ministry (SEP/PR), Brazilian Port Plan 2042 (PNLP)
Future Trends & Investment Opportunities
Nationwide
Per regionBrazil – port capacity gap in 2042
Source: Brazilian Port Ministry (SEP/PR), Brazilian Port Plan 2042 (PNLP)
No
rth
No
rth
eas
tSo
uth
eas
tSo
uth
0.7
5.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Container
Breakbulk
2014
Additional by 2042
119.8
21.6
27
0.8
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Container
Breakbulk
2014
Additional by 2042
171.7
35.1
34.9
7.6
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Container
Breakbulk
2014
Additional by 2042
33.2
0.8
15
2.3
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Container
Breakbulk
2014
Additional by 2042
325.4
57.5
82.5
10.6
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Dry Bulk
Liquid Bulk
Container
Breakbulk
2014 Additional by 2042
Thank you!
Elaborated by Ricardo Sproesser (Jan.21st´2016)+5511 9 [email protected]
2016 Shifting International Trade Routes
Tampa, Fla. Jan.21-22´2016
“Marine Terminal Operator Perspectives”