2016 1018 ciwem sw seminar
TRANSCRIPT
Albert S. Chen
Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas (CORFU)
18 Oct 2016 CIWEM SW BranchFlood Resilience and Sustainable Water Management in Urban Areas
Outline
• CORFU overview
• Key methodologies
• Concluding remarks
The CORFU project
• Funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 244047
• Four-year project 2010-2014
• Europe-Asia angle
• €3.5m budget
• www.corfu7.eu
CORFU Team
Project aims
• Assess flood impacts for future scenarios
– Economic development
– Urban growth
– Climate change
• Evaluate resilience measures and strategies
– Flood resilience index
– Cost-effectiveness of resilience measures
Project aims
• Facilitate learning between Europe and Asia
– Two-way process
– Collaborative research
– Improved mutual understanding
• Help create flood resilient cities
– Better planning
– Reduction of impacts
• Saving lives
• Minimizing losses
• Preserving infrastructure
– Faster recovery
Case study cities
Barcelona Beijing Dhaka
Hamburg Mumbai Nice
TaipeiSongdoSeoul
Drivers (WP1)
• Socio-economic pathways
– Common global assumptions
– Regional scenarios for each city
• Combined with plausible climate futures
– Based on 4th IPCC scenarios and regional studies
– Envisaged changes in rainfall patterns
Population growth & urbanisation
201020152020202520302035204020452050205520602010-2060
Dhaka
Models based on:
satellite images
land use
DTM
thematic maps
distance relations
Modelling (WP2)
• Various models used – 1D, 2D, 1D/2D
• Areas up to 1,000 km2
• Calibration
• Real-time warning systems
Validation of surface flow Comparison between flow depths provided by model simulations and youtube video recorded during
the event of 30/07/2011
0.4 m
Modelling (WP2)
Health impact
Flood hazard assessment was carried out for the Raval district according to specific criteria achieved for flooded streets during heavy storm events
High hazard conditions were defined for velocities above 1.88 m/s and flow depths above 10 cm, while for moderate hazard, 1.5 m/s and 6 cm were considered as thresholds.
Hazard level Flow conditions
(for flow depths between 9 and 16 cm)
High v 1.88 m/s
Moderate 1.51 v < 1.88 m/s
Low v < 1.51
Pedestrian Safety
Flood impact typology (WP3)
Tangible Intangible
Direct • Physical damage to assetsBuildingsContentsInfrastructure
• Loss of life• Injuries• Diseases• Loss of ecological goods
Indirect • Loss of industrial production• Traffic disruption
• Inconvenience of recovery• Vulnerability of population
• Flood damage assessment tool
16
Damage on buildings in mega cities
• Challenges in modelling:
– Volume of data and computational cost
– Optimal resolution of 2D models
– “Merging” of buildings
– Locally valid depth-damage curves
• Flood damage assessment tool
– Add-on in ArcGIS
– Interacts with data using built-in geo-processing functions and executables
– Transferable algorithms
Chen et al. 2016, Natural Hazards
Barcelona Taipei Nice
BeijingDhaka
Traffic modelling
Natural dimension
Topography
flood intensity
flood frequency
natural environment
Degradation
Physical dimension
Land use
Urban functions and services,
Warning system and evacuation,
History
Location
Accessibility
Social dimension
Population
Health status
Education and awareness
Social capital
Knowledge and awareness
Economic dimension
Income,
Employment
Households
Assets
Access to financial service
Savings and insurance,
Budget and subsidy
Institutional dimension
Internal institutions and development plan
Effectiveness of internal institutions,
External institutions and networks
Institutional collaboration and coordination
• Flood Resilience Index (FRI)
Evaluation of resilience (WP4)
Concluding remarks
• CORFU approach presented
• Overall project conclusions yet to be formulated
• Details of implementation in case studies depended on:
– Data quality and availability
– Dominant drivers
– Adopted models
– Critical impacts
– Applicable measures
AlbertChenExeter
@AlbertChen_CWS
Contact
Questions?
Dr Albert S. Chen
www.exeter.ac.uk/cws