urban flood forecasting now a reality: ciwem urban drainage group presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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ICMLive & KickingBryony Crickmore Richard Allitt Associates LtdAlex Grist Richard Allitt Associates Ltd
Thursday 5th November 2015
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Contents Introduction
Concept
Process
The Model
Data Streams
Examples
After the Alert
Summary
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Overview
Richard Allitt Associates (RAA) has undertaken an offline trial of ICMLive (flood forecasting software) in partnership with Borough of Poole, Bournemouth Borough Council and Wessex Water.
The Bournemouth & Poole fully integrated models were used to run ‘real-time’ simulations and generate alerts to forewarn of predicted events
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Process
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Concept Aim of trial was to provide a ‘real-time’ model that generated forecasted alerts for
flooding from all sources and spill events
Use Met Office “Nowcast” and “Nimrod” data alongside data provided by Wessex Water
Need originates from pluvial flooding problems
Alerts would be set up that focussed upon predicted flooding and spill events
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Combined Model 394,000
Population
30,802 Nodes
30,702 Conduits
3 details 2D zones
3.9km of river reach
2D ponds
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model
Aim of ‘real-time’ simulations = quick & accurate predictions
Quick AND Accurate model achieved by;1. Model Simplification2. Model Confidence
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Confidence
Model confidence comes through comprehensive verification of the model prior to its use in ICMLive
Verification of the model helps to:- Minimise chance of genuine alerts not being sent
Both the Poole and Bournemouth models were fully verified for the foul/combined, surface water, fluvial and pluvial runoff so we had the necessary confidence in their performance
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Confidence
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
Faster simulations will:1. Save Resources2. Allow decisions to be made quicker3. Allow more informed decisions to be made
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Model - Simplification
Objects•12,050 nodes
•39 outfalls
•12,096 pipes
•1 2D zone
Bournemouth
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 min
Target Time = < 10 minutes
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Merging WaPUG Code of Practice states:-
Grouping a number of similar consecutive pipes together to a single pipe (merging);
WaPUG Code of Practice states:-Excluding small diameter pipes from the periphery of the system and inputting the flows to the next pipe downstream (pruning);
The Model - Pruning
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
Purple lines = Pruned links
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Pruning
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 min
Target Time = < 10 minutes
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification
25 minutes
Baseline
4 minutes
Pruned & Merged
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model - Simplification Simplification was carried out to achieve a quick simulation time
Areas of interest were left unaltered and only the surrounding areas were simplified
The result of this simplification is that the run time was drastically reduced making them fit for purpose
Model was check after each stage of simplification to ensure that the confidence remained in the model
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Data Streams Spatial data:
1. Met Office Nowcast (forecast)2. Met Office Nimrod (hindcast)
A script downloads from the FTP site every 10 minutes and then the ICMLive system automatically loads the data into the system every 10 minutes
Scalar data:1. Rain Gauges2. Flow Monitors
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Frontal Rainfall Example
Nimrod
5 hours warning
Nowcast
02:14 – 29/10/2015
09:14 – 30/10/2015
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Actions & AlertsAlert Definition List
Action List
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & AlertsAlert Definition List
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & AlertsAlert Definition List
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Actions & Alerts
Action List
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example Outputs
Manholes predicted to flood are listed
The onset and the end time of the event included
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example Ouputs Results are displayed in the
operator client interface
Themes have been predefined in the manifest
Customized the theme
Radar rainfall has also been set up to be displayed
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Storm Event 03/07/2015 1 in 100 year storm event hit Bournemouth on the evening of the 3rd of July
this year Localised event of short duration but caused a lot of damage with a
number of properties suffering from internal flooding
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/13370923.Flash_flooding_and_spectacular_skies_as_Dorset_hit_by__megastorm_/?ref=trn
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:00
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23:15
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:30
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
23:45
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00:00
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Forecast Rainfall (03/07)23:00 23:15 23:30
23:4500:00
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Lower Gardens Many of the sewers and drains surcharged in this area as well as river flooding
Were closed for several days due to overflowing sewers
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/11327036.VIDEO__Bournemouth_s_Lower_Gardens_flooded_after_heavy_rain/
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Lower Gardens Series simulations run from 22:00 to 00:30
First simulation where relevant alerts issued = 23:30
Onset time of predicted flooding:
23:15 23:30 WarningFoul/Combined - 00:00 30 minutesStorm - 23:45 15 minutes
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – FloodingAlerts generated from 23:30
simulation highlighted in greenReported/observed flooding cases for 03/07 storm from Bournemouth Borough Council
Predicted and known events in very similar locations
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Example – Flooding
First simulation where relevant alerts issued = 23:30
Onset time of predicted flooding:- Range from 23:40 until 00:20- Warning time ranging from 10 to 50 minutes
597 flooding alerts were generated from the 23:30 simulation (356 alerts foul/combined)
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
This was a ‘thunderstorm’ one of the problems is that this rainfall is not ‘predicted’ well by the current Met Office Nowcast data.
This necessitates the need for a model to run as quickly as possible as the predicted rainfall lead time may only be 30 mins.
Example Flooding
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
The Model – ‘Parent/Child’ Recent software development was that of the ‘Parent/Child’ arrangement
Trigger alert generated
Poole ‘Child’ Model Triggered
Bournemouth ‘Child’ Model Triggered
‘Parent’ Model
Trigger alert not generated
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After the Alert – Benefits
Local CouncilsAccurate prediction of flood;
1. locations2. depths3. extents4. Timings
Enables councils to prepare the catchment by;
1. readying flood response teams2. closing flood gates3. preparing sand bags4. warning the public
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
After the Alert - BenefitsWater CompaniesOperational benefits
Greater control over CSO spills
Reduce impacts by;1. emptying storm tanks in
advance 2. controlling pumping
stations 3. operating sluice gates
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Summary
ICMLive enabled us to set up a fully integrated flood forecasting model for an urban area of 394,000 population
Used in conjunction with Bournemouth Borough Council, The Borough of Poole and Wessex Water
Alerts successfully generated from the model that forecasted flood and spill events
Forecast data still has short comings when predicting flood and spill events due to convective storms
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ICMLive and Kicking 05/11/2015
Next Steps
Use of scalar data
Refining the alert & action lists
Bring it online!
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Any Questions?@raa_ltd