Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Sustainability Transitions &

Transition Management

Jan RotmansJan Rotmans Copenhagen, 08-06-2011Copenhagen, 08-06-2011

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Persistent problems• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems

• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply, water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care

• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedin our societal structuresin our societal structures

• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvementis not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems

transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)Solutions?!

• current policies are not adequatecurrent policies are not adequate

• market offers no real solutions for persistent problems market offers no real solutions for persistent problems

• stakeholder processes aimed at incremental changestakeholder processes aimed at incremental change

what could work?what could work?

• system failures require radical, transformative changes:system failures require radical, transformative changes:

system innovations / transitionssystem innovations / transitions

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)Transition

fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in

societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system

• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions(market, consumption, production), institutions

(rules, regulations, collective actors)(rules, regulations, collective actors)

• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (definingproblems and solutions)problems and solutions)

• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level

incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokendown and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Examples of transitions

• from coal energy supply to gas energy supplyfrom coal energy supply to gas energy supply

• from fossil fuel based energy to renewable energyfrom fossil fuel based energy to renewable energy

• from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economyfrom an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy

• from physical, traditional media to social mediafrom physical, traditional media to social media

partly planned, partly emerging processespartly planned, partly emerging processes

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

20 - 30 years

Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase

20 – 30 years

Multiple Phases

”

Widespread application

of new paradigms

Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages

Tipp

ing

Poin

t

Battle between old and

new paradigm

Build up and decay

of institutions

energy

Time

We are here

Consolidatiion

transport

fisheries

health care

agriculture

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Multiple LevelsMacro-levelglobalization, demographic trendshypermobilityclimate change

Meso-levellimited collective steering capacityfailing mobility policy Increasing norms for CO2, fine particles

Micro-level mobility innovation programmesmobility experiments

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Multiple ScalesMacro-level

+ scarcity fossil fuels + energy security + climate change - financial-economic crisis

Meso-level +/- Copenhagen treaty + WBC Sustainable Development. +/- EU-energy policy + regional / urban initiatives

Micro-level + decentral energy production + solar- and wind energy + energy pioneers (frontrunners) - law- and regulatory

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Multiple Patterns

Transformative Change arises fromTransformative Change arises from small, emerging changes at the micro-level small, emerging changes at the micro-level

bottom-upbottom-up creepingcreeping

induced changes at the meso-levelinduced changes at the meso-levelin betweenin between periodic shocksperiodic shocks

a massive, fast change at the macro-levela massive, fast change at the macro-levelttop-downop-down big bangbig bang

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition is Power Struggle

regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power regime will try to maintain and defend its existing power and will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regimeand will try to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime

regime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofregime has diverse defence mechanisms in the form ofresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicresistances: institutional, governance, technological, economicand social resistanceand social resistance

especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’especially newcomers (niches), together with ‘change-inclined’regime actors can break through the existing order and structure regime actors can break through the existing order and structure

transition = regime-shifttransition = regime-shift = shift in power = shift in power

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Why do transitions often fail?

game, rules and playersgame, rules and players

transition requires a new structure, culture and practicestransition requires a new structure, culture and practices

transition requires new rules, new players and new gametransition requires new rules, new players and new game

dominant players have too many interests to defend anddominant players have too many interests to defend anddondon’’t want to change the rules drasticallyt want to change the rules drastically

only new players can only new players can ‘‘break openbreak open’’ the game and change the game and changethe rulesthe rules

more, different, bettermore, different, better

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Sustainability as orientation

sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transitionsustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition

sustainable development is a socially and scientificallysustainable development is a socially and scientificallycontested notion: contested notion: no unique definition or approachno unique definition or approach

transitiontransition approachapproach

organize reflexive search and learning process with organize reflexive search and learning process with stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilitystakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilityis in a particular contextis in a particular context

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition Governance

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition governancerules of thumbrules of thumb

• long-term thinking as the basis for short term policylong-term thinking as the basis for short term policy

• think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-level)different levels (multi-level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance

• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Complexity characteristics translated in principles TM

Complexity characteristics

Theoretical Principles TM Systemic Instruments for TM

emergence creating space for niches transition arena

dissipative structures focus on frontrunners transition arena and competence analysis

diversity and coherence guided variation and selection transition experiments and transition pathways

new attractors, punctuated equilibria

radical change in incremental steps

envisioning for sustainable futures

co-evolution empowering niches competence development

variation and selection learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning

deepening, broadening, scaling up experiments

interactions, feedbacks multi-level approachmulti-domain approach

complex systems analysis

Patterns, mechanisms anticipation and adaptation multi-pattern & multi-level analysis

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition approachprinciplesprinciples

- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack

- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces

- develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysdevelop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways

- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments

- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments

searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition approach cycle

vision, pathways,transition

agenda

transition arena

transition experiments

evaluation, monitoring

learning

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

society

Transition arenasRegular policy arena- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Transition Experimentsssocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition processa high potential to contribute to a transition process

how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?

- deepeningdeepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment][learn as much as possible from an experiment]

- broadeningbroadening [repeating an experiment in a different context][repeating an experiment in a different context]

- scaling upscaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime[anchoring of an experiment in the regime]]

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Ongoing Transition Processes

in the Netherlands

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Ongoing transition processes

• at the national level ministries have official transition policyat the national level ministries have official transition policy

• energy transitionenergy transition• water transitionwater transition• construction sector transitionconstruction sector transition• materials and waste transitionmaterials and waste transition• mobility transitionmobility transition• biodiversity transitionbiodiversity transition• health care transitionhealth care transition

• at the regional level regional bodies have transition policy at the regional level regional bodies have transition policy

• at the local level municipalities experiment with transition policyat the local level municipalities experiment with transition policy

demand drivendemand driven

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Role of government notnot in a directing role in a directing role

butbut

• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role

• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role

- formulating vision and high ambition levelformulating vision and high ambition level- creating space for frontrunnerscreating space for frontrunners- stimulating and enabling transition experiments stimulating and enabling transition experiments - removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Lessons

• natural tendency to an execution processnatural tendency to an execution process

• natural tendency of the government to fall backnatural tendency of the government to fall backin the command-and-control modein the command-and-control mode

• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisethe first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisewinners and loserswinners and losers

• space for frontrunners is of crucial importancespace for frontrunners is of crucial importance[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space][financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

ROTTERDAM CITY PORTROTTERDAM CITY PORT

Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Rotterdam City Port

= 1600 ha of Rotterdam in transition

= long term transformation [25-50 jaar]

= experimental garden for innovation of the city and harbour

= long term sustainability vision City Port [2030]

= execution programme 2010-2020

= 12 business cases

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Rotterdam City Port organic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory

sustainability vision sustainability vision

arenas with frontrunnersarenas with frontrunners

rules for developmentrules for development

iconsicons [floating pavillion, clean tech delta] [floating pavillion, clean tech delta]

vision-action intertwinedvision-action intertwined

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Sustainability Rules for City Port top 10top 10

1. energy neutral building1. energy neutral building

2. climate proof building2. climate proof building

3. development on the water3. development on the water

4. reuse of existing materials/products4. reuse of existing materials/products

5. green als carrier of development5. green als carrier of development

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Sustainability Rules for City Port

top 10top 10

6. diversity as starting point6. diversity as starting point

7. human standard as starting point7. human standard as starting point

8. building in cultural historical perspective 8. building in cultural historical perspective

9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance

10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Icons

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

incubator for new economy in Rotterdam and the Netherlands

will be located in Merwe/Vierhavens

started by business companies (frontrunners) and municipality

upcycling of waste, clean water, energy production, biomass

living lab = breeding place

Clean Tech Delta

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

ARENA SESSIE 03 M4HAVENS 190111 VRIJSTAAT

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

floating pavilion is learning exercise for floating district

stepping stone

floating district will be a learning exercise for floating city

learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning

Floating Pavillion

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Floating City

water recreation

ecology:wetlands

technology: floating foundation

energy: decentral heat/cold storage

mobility: floating

highway, water taxi

living / working units

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Conclusions• transition thinking offers new perspective for persistent problemstransition thinking offers new perspective for persistent problems

• transition management seems a promising new governance modetransition management seems a promising new governance mode

• we need more empirical evidence for validating the concept ofwe need more empirical evidence for validating the concept of

transition managementtransition management

• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,

working and recreation area working and recreation area

• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires anthis transition process takes about 30 years and requires an

organic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory

Kno

wle

dge

netw

ork

for S

yste

m In

nova

tions

and

trans

ition

s (w

ww

.ksi

netw

ork.

nl)

Growing interest in & outside Europe

Germany, England, Belgium, Austria, Finland

but also outside Europe

Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India, Canada