2010 census lookout 2010 census uss ctpp slides available at
TRANSCRIPT
2010 Census Lookout
2010 Census
USS CTPP
Slides available at http://edthefed.com/
Ed Christopher Resource Center Planning TeamFederal Highway Administration
19900 Governors DriveOlympia Fields, IL 60461
2010 Census
ACS and CTPP
Census 2010It’s Only a Short Form Questionnaire
7 Questions Name Sex Age
Relationship Hispanic Origin
Race Owner/Renter
http://www.census.gov/
Not a bad website
http://www.census.gov/2010census/
2010 and more
2010 Timeline
Department of AdministrationDemographic Services Center101 E. Wilson St., 10th Floor, PO Box 8944Madison, WI 53708-8944Mr. Philip [email protected](608) 266-1927
Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)
Boundary and Annexation Survey (BAS)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/bas/bashome.html
School District Review Program (SDRP)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/schdist/sch_dist.html
Participant Statistical Areas Program (PSAP)
Tribal Statistical Areas Program (TSAP)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tsap2010/tsap2010.html
UZA Definitions
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/
Geography Programs
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/luca2010/luca.html
Appeal Time
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psap2010_main.html
MAF/TIGER Partnership Software
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/cbt/index.htm
PSAP Draft Schedule as of March 2008
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psap2010_main.html
Gail A. Krmenec, Geographic CoordinatorU.S. Census Bureau500 West Madison Street, Suite 1600Chicago, Illinois 60661-4555Voice: (312) 454-2714FAX : (312) 488-1510Email: [email protected]
Urbanized Area Definitions
http://www.chrispy.net/pipermail/ctpp-news/2008-July/001695.html
2000 density based, automated process, identified urban clusters (2,500 pop), ignored place
boundaries
2010 still in internal discussionsInvestigating use of place of work data
Reviewing land use covers and digital elevation maps
Thinking about household densities
Look for criteria for defining urbanized areas and clusters in Spring 2009 in Federal Register
http://trbcensus.com/
The Transportation Side“Long Form” to ACS
1960 OMB Journey-to-Work Tables
1970 and 1980 Urban Transportation Planning Package (UTPP)
1990 and 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
At ResidenceAt Workplace
Flows between Home and Work
Do we all know what the ACS is?
Remember The Long Form is DeadNada, History, Kaput!
Census Transportation
Planning Products
The CTPP embodies a collection of Census Data used for Transportation Planning. With changing data needs and the ACS, there will be a variety of different products useful for transportation planning emanating from Census Data. There will be Special Tabulations, Standard Tables and even Value Added-products. The CTPP captures all of these.
Think of CTPP as a place to look for Census Data products to help with your Transportation needs
Enter the ACS era…
Journey to Work
Data
What were the sizes of the JTW data products and who paid for them?
Buyers/Users Direct Cost Tables
1960 OMB ??? ???
1970 112 $0.6 M 43
1980 152 $2.0 M 82
1990 $2.5 M 120
2000 $3.0 M 203
2005 + AASHTO Consolidated Purchase $5.9 Million
All States and MPOs
$5,920,003 TOTAL
$465,000 Oversight Activities
$2,980,000 Data Products
$920,000 Research
$625,000 Training
$930,000 On-Demand
Technical Assistance
AASHTO Led
Oversight Board
Five Year period ~ 2011
Consolidated (ACS era) CTPP Purchase
Federal Technical Advisory GroupTRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (700 strong)Quarterly Newsletter -- OutreachSeveral Websites
AASHTO Oversight Board
StatesMel Adams, VT (Region I)
Nathan Erlbaum, NY (Region I)Hui Wei Shen, FL (Region II)Mike Thomas, GA (Region II)
Phillip Mescher, IA (Region III)Ahmad Jaber, UT (Region IV)
Ayalew Adamu, CA (Region IV
MPOsKuo-Ann Chiao, NYMTCJerry Duke, RTC Vegas
Steven Gayle, BMTSMell Henderson MARC
Arash Mirzaei, NCTCOGGuy Rousseau, ARC
Ex Officio MembersEd Christopher, FHWA
Alison Fields, Census BureauDeLania Hardy, AMPO
Elaine Murakami, FHWARobert Padgette, APTA
Alan Pisarski, ConsultantSteven Polzin, USF. CUTR
Nanda Srinivasan, TRB
Chair: Kent Cooper, NV (Region IV)Vice Chair: Jonette Kreideweis, MN (Region III)
AASHTO Liaison: Ronald McCready
17 voting members: 9 states and 8 MPOs
Consensus Decision Making
AASHTO Oversight Board
First meeting August 5-6, 2008
Approved Work Program
Program Management--Hire Person
Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation
Training and Technical Assistance
Research
Approved FHWA-CB IAA for $1.19 million
Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation
X
3-year Product Hits Snag Disclosure Review Board
All Tables rounded like 2000
No thresholds on Univariate Mode tables
Cell thresholds on all Mode by “X” tablesTables with failing cells will be suppressedIncludes all Resident and Workplace tables
Worker flows by Total Workers and Flows by Mode [7] no thresholds
So what does all this mean?
Feb 5: Submitted 3-year CTTP Data requestFeb. 14: Staff email suggests new DBR rulesMar. 12: New DRB rules receivedMarch-April: Discussed with communityMay 2: Sent response to DRBMay 12: Met with full DRBJune 2: AASHTO files appeal August 5: FHWA sends support letterAppeal set for August 28, 2008
http://trbcensus.com/drb
DRB Says…
“Too many” cross-tabulations byMeans of Transportation (Mode)
• Age• Class of Worker• Disability status• Earnings• Household Income• Poverty status • Industry• Occupation
• Length of U.S. residence• Minority Status (Y/N)• Time Leaving Home• Time Arriving (Part 2)• Travel Time• Vehicle Availability• Workers in Household• Age of Youngest Child
…makes for micro data record
Are the rules necessary?
We say NO*DRB Says yes
* ..and so does the Committee on National Statistics as well as Westat, a national survey firm
“The Census Bureau should undertake research to develop confidentiality protection rules and procedures for tabulations from the ACS that recognize the protection afforded to respondents by pooling the data over many months.”
---CNSTAT, 2007
The data is already protected
Administratively: Swapping, Imputation, complex weighting
Methodologically: Period estimate not point in time, very large weights and small sample sizes, MOEs at 90% confidence and addressed based sampling
Statistically: Estimated values change over time, data is cohorted, income and age adjustments
Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation
What we were planning a year ago
The TAZ story gets involved
To be paid out of IAA
Business Rules set
Cost estimate in
Last minute cost increase (50%)
Considering options
TAZ Issues, Questions and Options
Work Though contract with the CB Geography to developed TAZs in 2009, have them put into TIGER and yield to yet another last minute CB cost increase
Develop a block to TAZ equivalency process after 2010 blocks are defined that is independent of CB Geography at a potentially reduced cost
Will there be TAZs? What size will they be?What will the process be?When will it start?
5-year data product
Hinges on DRB posture and appeal to Data Stewardship Executive Policy Committee
Likely to be all synthetic
Needs some key research to be done
What else can be said?
X
Geography
The 3-year Product dream
MSA – EACH Principal City
Metropolitan Statistical Area
State-POW PUMA
State-PUMA
State-Place
State-County-MCD
State-County
Nation (US Total)
Product Structure
3-PartsPart 1- Place of Residence
Part 2- Place of Work
Part 3- Flows between Home and Work
(Extraction Software)
State
Stay Tuned
http://trbcensus.com/