2010 04-10 future-of_wireless-drobot-v7-printable (1)
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Wireless
Keynote TalkIEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010
19 April 2010Sydney, Australia
Adam DrobotPresident, Advanced Technology Solutionsand CTO TelcordiaPiscataway, NJ 08854, [email protected]
www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 2
Abstract
Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital– These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on
the planet– They account for well over half the business activity of
service providers– Mobile services involve components touching many
technologies, which are on exponential trajectories– We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and
applications– Consumers and users of these services have often surprised
us with what they will spend money on– The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been
profound
Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital– These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on
the planet– They account for well over half the business activity of
service providers– Mobile services involve components touching many
technologies, which are on exponential trajectories– We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and
applications– Consumers and users of these services have often surprised
us with what they will spend money on– The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been
profound
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 3
Abstract (cont’d)
We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic– New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP– Extension to direct communication between devices– A driving force in economic growth around the world
affecting all industries, governments, and individuals– Change in people’s life styles– Changes in who the players are for us in the industry– A global shift in where research and development will occur
We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic– New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP– Extension to direct communication between devices– A driving force in economic growth around the world
affecting all industries, governments, and individuals– Change in people’s life styles– Changes in who the players are for us in the industry– A global shift in where research and development will occur
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 4
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 5
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 6
Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 7
Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 8
Wireless Adoption Milestones
2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US
2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!
2009: Half the world uses cell phones
2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US
2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!
2009: Half the world uses cell phones
* Information-communication-technology producing industries (ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing industries (includes software); information and data processing services; and computer systems design and related services. (US BEA)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 9
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 10
Wireless-only Households in Canada and the US
Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 11
Demographic Groups Most Likely to be Cellular Only
% C
ellp
ho
ne
-On
ly, A
pr
200
7
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 12
Percentage of US Households without Landline Telephones
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 13
Projected North American Business Use of Landline and Cell Phones
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 14
Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person Households
Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 15
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 16
Global Trends: World View over 14 Years
153 countries, 1995 – 2008
Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population Internet Users per 100 population Broadband Subscribers per 100 population
153 countries, 1995 – 2008
Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population Internet Users per 100 population Broadband Subscribers per 100 population
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 17
Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines
Fixed Telephone LinesFixed Telephone Lines
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 18
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2008
Fix
ed L
ines
per
100
po
p,
200
8
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 19
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GDP per Capita, 2008
Fix
ed L
ines
per
100
po
p,
200
8
Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Taiwan
Australia
Iceland
U.S.China
India
Korea
Myanmar
Niger
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.
CanadaGermany
Viet Nam
New Zealand
Sweden
Malta
Eq. GuineaMalaysiaSouth AfricaIndonesia
Burundi
Papua New Guinea
Lux.
Norway
Japan
U.K.
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 20
Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions
Mobile SubscriptionsMobile Subscriptions
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 21
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2008
Mo
bil
e S
ub
s p
er 1
00 p
op
, 2
008
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 22
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
50
100
150
200
GDP per Capita, 2008
Mo
bil
e S
ub
s p
er 1
00 p
op
, 2
008
TaiwanCanada
U.S.
Lux.
ChinaIndia
KoreaNiger
Papua New Guinea
Qatar
Australia.
Japan
Italy
Russia
Switz.
U.K.
Viet Nam
IndonesiaNorway
Gambia
Bulgaria
U.A.E
Ukraine
New Zealand
Eq. Guinea
Bahrain
Lithuania
Burundi
Estonia
Global TrendsMobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 23
Global Trends – Internet Users
Internet UsersInternet Users
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 24
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2008
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op
,
2008
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 25
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP per Capita, 2008
Inte
rnet
Use
rs p
er 1
00 p
op
,
2008
Global TrendsInternet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Taiwan Japan
U.S.Lux.
China
India
Korea
Niger
Papua New Guinea
Qatar
KuwaitRussia
Switz.
Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Portugal
Iceland
Australia
Indonesia
Norway
Burundi
SwedenHolland
Malaysia
Spain
Eq. Guinea
New Zealand
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 26
Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers
Broadband SubscribersBroadband Subscribers
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 27
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2008
Bro
adb
and
Su
bs
per
100
po
p,
20
08
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 28
100 1,000 10,000 100,0000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GDP per Capita, 2008
Bro
adb
and
Su
bs
per
100
po
p,
20
08
Global TrendsBroadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Size shows population
Korea
Japan
U.S.
Denmark
Lux.
China
India
Taiwan
Niger Myanmar
Qatar
Kuwait
Russia
Switz.Canada
ItalyViet Nam
Spain
Portugal
IcelandU.K.
Chile
Indonesia
Sweden
Norway
Holland
Germany
New Zealand
Australia
Russia
Eq. Guinea
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 29
Global Trends – Over 14 Years
Continuing…Continuing…
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Internet Broadband ContinueFixed Mobile
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 30
Global Trends – Mobile Penetration by Region – 2007 & 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 31
Global Trends: Adoption by Developing Nations
Source: Wireless Communications – Q2 2006 Topical
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 32
Global Trends: Wired vs. Wireless Crossover
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 33
ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 34
Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 35
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 36
Pre-cellular
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 37
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1996 (red = new in 1996)
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 38
US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 39
Pre-cellular
Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 40
1996 (red = new in 1996)
Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 41
2010
Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 42
Cellular Sites in the US – 1985-2009
Source: CTIA
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 43
Mobile Sites in Australia – 1985-2009
Data source: ACMA
Dec-8
5
Dec-8
6
Dec-8
7
Dec-8
8
Dec-8
9
Dec-9
0
Dec-9
1
Dec-9
2
Dec-9
3
Dec-9
4
Dec-9
5
Dec-9
6
Dec-9
7
Dec-9
8
Dec-9
9
Dec-0
0
Dec-0
1
Dec-0
2
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1,0
40
1,2
85
2,1
98
3,2
62
4,1
75
5,5
48
6,8
97
8,3
28
10
,52
0
13
,17
3
15
,25
4
18
,39
9
21
,59
2
24
,03
8
26
,48
6
28
,57
5
30
,68
7
32
,77
0
35
,25
2
37
,89
0
41
,03
0
44
,64
4
47
,78
2
52
,90
4
57
,14
3Mobile Sites
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 44
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 45
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 46
??Source: IDC
Mobile TransformationsThe 5 Year Cycles
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 47
Source: IDC
Mobile Transformations – Looking Forward
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 48
Cellphone Milestones
Sat- Phone
Treo
StarTACNokia
iPhone
LG
Sharp – first CameraPhone
Nokia
Motorola
1973
1983
1984
19851986
1987
1988
19891990 1991 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000 2001 20022003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Prototype
Motorola “brick”
AMPS trialIn Chicago
Sony-Ericsson
First TV ad
In movies
iDEN digital
KyoceraSmartPhone
GPRSdigital Bluetooth
BlackBerry
BlackBerry
???
Numberportability
Android
App Store
OpenSource OS
500 billiontext msgs in 2004
1.9 trilliontext msgs in 2007
Wi-Ficellularhybrid
First SmartPhone -- touch screen, pager, calculator, calendar, fax, e-mail
Texting
Vibrates, Flips open
QWERTY kbd
IBM Simon
Wi-Fi-cellularhandoff
250 billion textmsgs in 2001
GPSE-911
Nokia
Patent1975
2002: More mobile substhan wired, worldwide
Color
M I95cl
Games
Mp3player
PolyphonicRingtones
109 Nokia
phones
Concept:1946 1966
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 49
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 50
Computing
2000 2010
Per
form
ance
(o
n l
og
sca
le)
1970 1980 1990
Today
Pentium II
Pentium 4
Pentium 5
PentiumI486
I286/I386
IBM 360/370
At constant cost!
2000 20101970 1980 1990
At constant cost!
Are
al D
ensi
ty (
Mb
its
/ in
2 )
2000 20101970 1980 1990
1
25%CGR
-210
-110
10
510
410
310
210
40%CGR
60%CGR
25%CGR
-210 -210
-110 -110
510 510
410 410
310 310
40%CGR
60%CGR
Storage
Digitization – Computing & Storage
Pentium III
Pentium II
Pentium III
Pentium 4
Duo Core
PentiumI486
I286/I386
IBM 360/370
Quad Core Grid Computing
Autonomic Computing
Blades
Multicore
Latent Semantic Indexing
In-memory Databases
Today
Today
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 51
Digitization – Energy Efficiency
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 52
Digitization – StorageCapacity and Cost
Sources: IDC, "1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and Review,“ Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000*Telcordia projected capacity 1988-1994 & costs 2003-2010.
PetabytesShipped
Cost perGigabyte
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
$10,000.00
$100,000.00
2010
Cost *
Capacity *
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 53
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 54
Role of Technology – Software
Co
mp
lexi
ty
-
ComponentDevelopment
-
Software Quality by Industry
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ran
ge
of
Err
ors
Per
K li
nes
of
cod
e
Auto Military Telecom WWWC&C
Agents,
Service Oriented Architectures
C, COBOL, Fortran, Ada
C++,
Smalltalk
Java, J2EE
.NET
Development
Structured
Object Oriented Development
Model Driven Architectures
Policy Based Designs
Agents
Service Oriented Architectures
Component Based
1970 1980 20201970 1980 1990
TodayProgramming
2000
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 55
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 56
Shape of the Industry & Underlying Infrastructure: Network Layers
global
national
regional
metro
local
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 57
Role of Technology – Networks & Interfaces
Networks
2000 2010
Per
form
ance
1970 1980 1990
Interconnects
Access
WANsEthernet
GbEthernet
10gEthernetHIPPI
SCIInfiniband
PCIExpress
DS1
DS3OC3
ST506
IDE
SCSI
ATA
FChan
OCN
11
100100
10001000
Per
form
ance
Access
WANsEthernet
GbEthernet
10gEthernetHIPPI
SCIPCI
Express
DS1
DS3OC3
ST506
IDE
SCSI
ATA
FChanFChan
OCNOCN
11
100100
10001000
Today
Ad-hoc Networks
OCDMA
AutoRF
User Interfaces
2000 20101940 1960 1980
Su
rfac
e A
rea
of
Dis
pla
y
210
310
410
210 210
310 310
410 410
LCD
Plasma
CRT
6G Services
Appliances
Today
3D
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 58
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 59
Cellular Technology Roadmap
CDMA
GSM
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 60
Mobile Data Users in the U.S.
Wireless Operator
Wireless Technology
Wireless Subscribers*
% Data Subscribers
AT&T GSM 71.4M 28% (20.0M)
T-Mobile GSM 30.8M 25% (07.7M)
Verizon Wireless CDMA 67.2M** 31% (20.8M)
Sprint CDMA 52.8M 25% (13.2M)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 61
Evolution of Three Key ITU IMTS 3G Technologies
TDMA +WCDMA(3GPP)
IMTS: Improved Mobile Telephony Service EV-DO: Evolution - Data OptimizedTDMA: Time Division Multiple Access UMB: Ultra Mobile BroadbandHSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access OFDM: Orthogonal Frequency Division HSPA: High Speed Packet Access (DL+UL) MultiplexingLTE: Long Term EvolutionSAE: System Architecture Evolution
CDMA2000(3GPP2)
EV-DORel 0
EV-DORev A
EV-DORev B
WiMAX802.16-2004
OFDM802.16-2005
OFDMA802.16m
4G
EV-DO Rev C or UMB
WCDMAR-99
HSDPAR5
LTE/SAE R8 …
HSPAR6
HSPA+EDGE Evolution
R7
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 62
Data Rate, Mobility, Cost Comparisons
Source: Alvarion
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 63
GSM Technology Outlook thru 2010
WCDMAR-99
HSDPAR5
LTE/SAER8
HSUPAR6
… 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 …
(3GPP) GSM – WCDMA – LTE
EDGER-98
HSPA+ (MIMO)EDGE EvolutionR7
GSM Global System for Mobile Communications
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
EDGE Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution
WCDMA Wideband CDMA
HSPDA High Speed Downlink Packet Data Access
HSUPA High Speed Uplink Packet Data Access
HSPA+ Enhanced High Speed Packet Access
LTE Long Term Evolution
SAE System Architecture Evolution
Year of Technology Deployment in the US
GSM/GPRS
Source: Telcordia Report, 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 64
Technology RoadmapCellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G…
Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008)
2G 3G 4G
IDEN WIDEN HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+
CDMA9-05A
CDMA9-05B
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DOa 1xEV-DOb
GSM GSM/GPR3
EDGE
TD-SCDMA
LTE, UMB,802.16n
PDC
WCDMA802.16d 802.16e
TDMA 802.20(CFDM)
802.11n& Mesh
Latency: >200ms 100-200ms <100ms <20ms
Data rate: 20 kb/s ~500 kb/s up to 7.2 Mb/s up to 50 Mb/s
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 65
Wireless Technology Roadmap
Source: Docera Public Wiki 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 66
Future Wireless Landscape
Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role
Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE
Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role
Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 67
Future Wireless Landscape
Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path– LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants
for some time– Multi-mode and backward compatible devices
Expect deployment delays– Industry generally says “2010” timeframe– Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base
stations with greater bandwidth– Patents, Patents, Patents.
Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path– LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants
for some time– Multi-mode and backward compatible devices
Expect deployment delays– Industry generally says “2010” timeframe– Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base
stations with greater bandwidth– Patents, Patents, Patents.
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 68
Things to Expect by 2015
Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology
Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies
All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP
More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities.
Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology
Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies
All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP
More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities.
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 69
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 70
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 71
Stages of Wireless Evolution
Stage I – Whom can I reach, and how quickly?
Stage II – When can I reach them? Time shifting – messaging, email & voicemail
Stage III – How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications
Stage IV – Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband
Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one?
Stage I – Whom can I reach, and how quickly?
Stage II – When can I reach them? Time shifting – messaging, email & voicemail
Stage III – How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications
Stage IV – Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband
Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one?
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 72
Stages of Wireless Evolution
Stage VI – How can I access data & information? Initial digitization of information & creationof browser functions
Stage VII – How many applications can I use on my wireless handset?
Stage VIII – How can I use the same applications onmultiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone…
Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipatewhat I need?
Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?
And always… How can I get more for less?
Stage VI – How can I access data & information? Initial digitization of information & creationof browser functions
Stage VII – How many applications can I use on my wireless handset?
Stage VIII – How can I use the same applications onmultiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone…
Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipatewhat I need?
Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?
And always… How can I get more for less?
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 73
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 74
What Will 5G & 6G Look Like?
•Mobility•Ubiquity
• Physical Sciences
•Speed•Bandwidth
• Immediacy•Relevance 5G and 6G
Service Networks
3G and 4GNetworks
VoiceFixed
VoiceWireless,News Text
Video On Demand,Movies
Video on the Spot, Alerts
Anticipation
3D
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 75
5G and 6G Services
Immediacy– Voice & Texting– Emergency
Response– News– Financial Info– Gaming– Selected
Entertainment Products
– Streaming Audio / Video
– . . .
Immediacy– Voice & Texting– Emergency
Response– News– Financial Info– Gaming– Selected
Entertainment Products
– Streaming Audio / Video
– . . .
Anticipation– Social networking– Location Based
Services– Opportunity Driven
Marketing– Scheduling / Alerts– Advanced Healthcare– Telematics– Financial Services– Diagnostics /
Prognostics– . . .
Anticipation– Social networking– Location Based
Services– Opportunity Driven
Marketing– Scheduling / Alerts– Advanced Healthcare– Telematics– Financial Services– Diagnostics /
Prognostics– . . .
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 76
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 77
IP Leading to a Fully Packetized Future
Information / data / content / media – major drivers for applications
1. First, everything must be indexed for searching (now underway)
2. Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many)
3. What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants
4. Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses
Information / data / content / media – major drivers for applications
1. First, everything must be indexed for searching (now underway)
2. Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many)
3. What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants
4. Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 78
Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?
Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging & competing in the same content delivery space
Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad-based vs. subscription-based)
Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors – all jostling for dominance
User experience emerges as new battleground
Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space
Seek to lead, and shape, necessary eco-system
Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models
Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging & competing in the same content delivery space
Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad-based vs. subscription-based)
Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors – all jostling for dominance
User experience emerges as new battleground
Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space
Seek to lead, and shape, necessary eco-system
Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 79
Traffic Impact of Introducing Packet-based Services
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 80
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 81
5G and 6G World: Integration, Convergence
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 82
5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 83
5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications
Source: IDC
150,000 apps… And counting!
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 84
Digitization: 5G and 6G Services
Services, Applications– Games– Bill pay– M-Commerce– Social networking– Store / restaurant finder– Turn-by-turn navigation– . . .
Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue!
Services, Applications– Games– Bill pay– M-Commerce– Social networking– Store / restaurant finder– Turn-by-turn navigation– . . .
Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue!
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 85
Digitization – 5G and 6G Services
The Columbia University
Earth Institute – Millennium Villages
Project in Africa
Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital divide
They are revolutionizing how development assistance works “It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and
quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.” “Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its
isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed isolation of all sorts.”
The Columbia University
Earth Institute – Millennium Villages
Project in Africa
Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital divide
They are revolutionizing how development assistance works “It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and
quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.” “Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its
isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed isolation of all sorts.”
Professor Jeffrey Sachs
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 86
Africa Mobile Penetration
Source: Blycroft: “The Africa and Middle East Mobile Telecoms Market in Figures 2Q 2009“
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 87
ICT Development in Africa
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 88
Millennium Villages Project in East Africa
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 89
Digitization – IP as a Wireless Integration Enabler
Over-the-Top Services App Stores Long-term, it’s all about services!
Over-the-Top Services App Stores Long-term, it’s all about services!
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 90
Mobile Data Services Market: % Revenues by Segment Forecasts: India 2003-2012
Others include mobile commerce & mobile marketing / advertising
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122005
Year
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Revenues
Messaging Entertainment Information Others
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 91
Example: Telematics – Projected Growth in Navigation Devices (millions)
Source: Telematics Research Group 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OEM
Portable
4.21.6
10.5
19.8
30.9
43.4
56.8
71
1.3 1.6
1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.8
OEM market share: 45% in 2005… 6% in 2012
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 92
Example: Telematics – Subscriber Base Growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 93
Example: Telematics – Wireless Revenue Breakdown
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 94
Operators Still Have (the) Key Assets !
Network, backhaul
Spectrum
Customer relationships
OSS / BSS
Transaction-generated information
Spatial coordinates, user location
Most small developers still want ties with operators
Service provider of last resort
Brand and mind share
Regulatory backing (after all is said, they build & operate critical social infrastructure)
Network, backhaul
Spectrum
Customer relationships
OSS / BSS
Transaction-generated information
Spatial coordinates, user location
Most small developers still want ties with operators
Service provider of last resort
Brand and mind share
Regulatory backing (after all is said, they build & operate critical social infrastructure)
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 95
Agenda
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Trends and Projections– Adoption Curves (long term views)– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future– Global Penetration– Infrastructure
Technologies– User Equipment– Computing & Storage– Software– Networks– Roadmaps
Digitization – Beyond 4G– Stages and Evolution– The 5G and 6G World– IP as an Integration Enabler– Explosion of Services
Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 96
Discussion
It’s an Exciting World!
– Moving at an exponential pace– Wireless is the future
It’s an Exciting World!
– Moving at an exponential pace– Wireless is the future
“You ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 97
Thank you!
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 98
G’day