the changing shape of business – the impact of technology on the business

model

Jerry Fishenden, 2007

[Edited copy]

agenda

• big picture• the bank• the pervasive age• the future organisation in the user-centric age

big picture

... when the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ...

… re-thinking the work model in Britain

• building / location centric• low productivity• log-jammed in email and paper-process hell• heating already over-heated wealthy parts of the

country• wasting £18Bn a year (1.5% of GDP) through inefficient

use of property (source: UK Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors)

• traffic congestion is costing UK business £20Bn per annum (source: CBI)– 62% of UK citizens get to/from work by car (source: ONS) – 85% of all journeys are by car– transport contributes 25% of carbon dioxide emissions,

85% of this is from road transport• UK initiatives on:

– bringing the disabled into the workforce– transport– Kyoto targets– flexible retirement / benefits / patterns of working… do not even mention the transformational and economic

impact of technology as part of core public policy …

questions• if you were designing an

organisation today, would you start by assuming you need geographic premises and a traditional "head office“ or town hall?

• if you were designing your bank today, would you design it the way it is now?

• if you had the luxury of a clean sheet of paper – what would your ideal vision for your bank look like? And what role would technology play in bringing that vision alive?

... if you’re too focused on your current business, it’s hard to look ahead and even harder to make

the changes you need to ...

… a longer look in the rear-view mirror

• agrarian revolution– four crop rotation

• industrial revolution– Joseph Jacquard’s Loom

• mass production– division and specialisation of

labour • “digital revolution”– economic and societal innovation:

enabled by IT

1876 1970’-1990’s2006

an innovation explosion

Mobile, VOIP, Video, IM, Blogs ….

the landline era

Forrester Research, Benchmark 2006

“Online seniors are more likely than Boomers to get photos by email”

“Online seniors are more than twice as likely as Gen Yers to check stock online”

“Online Gen Yers are twice as likely as Younger Boomers to pay to download music”

Forrester Research, Benchmark 2006

41% of US households shopping online … (a 5 million increase in 2005 alone …)

5 million seniors shopped online in 2005 ….

the myth of fast technology

• the mouse – invented 1964• the CD – 1965• the fax – 1843 • LCDs – 1888 • ... “the period from concept to

product is about 20 years in the industry in general ...”

• “any technology that is going to have significant impact over the next 10 years is already 10 years old” [source: Sketching User Experiences, Bill Buxton]

... the future workstation?

Source: Sketching User Experiences, Bill Buxton

Your bank … what business is it in anyway?

what is your bank anyway?

• a bank?• a financial (services)

organisation?• something else entirely …?

(hint: third option above ….)

reality?

• isn’t your business really about ... storing and managing digital bits – and providing the most effective complementary services?

• why focus on some digital bits – and not others?

• if you can handle financial bits … why not everything else digital?

future competition?

• ... where will competition come from?:– ... other banks, financial institutions ....?– ... or from another business sector that stores

other digital bits moving into financial digital bits? (Amazon, Google, etc.)

• why does this matter? Well ...– who has big data centres, just like banks?– who has mass consumer reach, just like banks?– and do you understand how they structure and

organise their employees and physical facilities and operations?

– are you benchmarking yourself against the wrong (potential) competitors?

• and what are your real assets and strengths: not just secure data management, but the value of related services such as identity/authentication

mining without the miner

mining services transformationtechnology adoption enablers

• robust, low latency IP based fiber networks

• vision enhanced robotics• immersive VR• real-time data-mining and analytics• …. and (most importantly)…• a business culture/vision that

understood the need for change and how technology would enable it to happen

talent• how do you identify, recruit and retain the best

talent?• typical hi-tech employer examples:

– workplace benefits (restaurant, crèche, healthcare etc)

– latest s/w and h/w– incentive programmes for recognition– stock awards for long-term retention– broadband provided at home– mail redirected to home– home health & safety checks– flexible working– ability to work reduced / compressed hours (one

Exec working full week over just 3 days)– outcome-based rewards (not input or output)– flat(ish) hierarchy

the pervasive age – its implications

(pervasive = ubiquitous = seamless = ambient …)

beyond mobility:pervasive computing

• pervasive, personal and ubiquitous

• any time, any place, anywhere, any device

• interact using …– speech and non-speech

sounds– gestures and tactile interfaces– navigation through context

(glancing)– physiological means

ambient-assisted living• independent living enabled by technology• centred on citizens and their needs• example:

– enabling the elderly to continue living in their own home as long as possible, living independently under their own control, with a higher quality of life

– bathroom scales, blood pressure monitors, blood glucose monitors, heart-rate monitors that update the patient and their GP (eg. via wireless & broadband)

– drugs that tell you when they’re out of date, or if you’ve forgotten a dose

• involves sensing and smart processing, evaluation and communication

• involves measuring a person's location and using location data in a way that benefits them

• (see the EU’s Framework Program 6 & 7)

intelligent environments

• office, home and public buildings running embedded technologies:– controlling lighting, heating

(energy efficiency) and security– entertainment (music/film etc

following you around the house)– dynamically moving calls and

content between desk/mobile phones, PCs other devices

– knowing you’re there– telling you what’s available

… more than just conferencing …

towards digital communities

the future organisation in the user centric age

towards the organisation of tomorrow

• re-thinking the requirements for real estate– new real estate requirements postponed for years – organisations more geographically dispersed– existing building space re-purposed

• increase in staff work/home satisfaction• increase in citizen satisfaction – direct contact

point• “localisation” of work a reality in ways never

previously possible• organisations seen as thought leaders in new ways

of working – with technology that employees want to use and citizens and businesses able to interact with services in new ways

the digital community• employees key

part of the local economy

• key – partnerships between business and the community

• drives bigger picture agenda– e-services

programme– accessibility –

access to work for all

.. its getting personal!

• lifetime stores of everything:– articles, books,

cards, CDs, letters, memos, papers, photos, pictures, presentations, home movies, videotaped lectures, voice recordings, phone calls, IM transcripts, television, radio …. (mylifebits)

MyLifeBits

MyLifeStore

Gordon Bell, Microsoft Research, http://www.mylifebits.com

from personal computing to community computing – grid in the wild

• today, SETI@Home• tomorrow …?

supercomputing?

… moving out of the lab, and under your desk …

the user at the centre

• users as reviewers (Amazon, etc)

• users as producers:– videos online– blogs– social networking / tagging,

tag gardens and the harvest– personal channels on IPTV

• declarative living• impact on business

not user centric – password fatigue

• service-provider and ad-hoc repositories• peer-to-peer• “the Internet as grid”• personalisation: each user has distinct data•“outside in” organisations, as users/employees bring their tech to work• privacy: user information propagates only to trusted parties• trust and veracity: information is pulled only from trusted parties

handwriting

speech

amazing, immersive visualisation

new modes of interaction, experience

Microsoft IP Ventures - http://www.microsoft.com/about/legal/intellectualproperty/ipventures/default.mspxEON Reality - http://www.eonreality.com/

zztest.swfhttp://zenzui.com/ http://labs.live.com/Deepfish/default.aspx

Visit Jerry’s blog at http://ntouk.com

dynamic content –“every loudspeaker is also a microphone”

http://research.microsoft.com/sds/default.aspx

whereabouts clock

text2paper

TextIt Notes

peripheral ink display

HomeNote

content connectionscontent presentations/interactions

people need to find and act on ANY content relevant to their

activities, from ANY application, on ANY device - in the context of

their current activity

gotchya! identity, privacy, security, social/cultural

shops at Morrisons

(source: loyalty card and credit card)

shops at Morrisons

(source: loyalty card and credit card)

subscribes to Vodaphone

(source: mobile phone)

subscribes to Vodaphone

(source: mobile phone)

overweight(source: connected bathroom scales)

overweight(source: connected bathroom scales)

iPod owner(source: RFID tag

iPod owner(source: RFID tag

alcoholic(source: The Red Lion

EPOS)

alcoholic(source: The Red Lion

EPOS)

fashion victim(source: street CCTV)

fashion victim(source: street CCTV) design with human dignity,

privacy and security in mind

... and finally ...

new world of work – key trends• economic transformation: the move from a

manufacturing-based economy to a services-based economy will accelerate

• one world of business: political and economic dynamics are forging a single global market, a global workforce, global customers, partners, and suppliers. Collaboration across time-zones, across organisations, across firewalls will be commonplace

• always on, always connected: the challenges of the “always on, always connected” world will be converting information into insights; managing time and staying focused on high priority tasks; finding the right information and connecting with the right people in an organisation via the best channel; staying in sync with colleagues; and managing the balance between work and family life

new world of work – key trends• the transparent organisation: The systems that make

organizations more agile also make them more accountable. • “NetGen meets Baby Boom”: the “net generation” that’s

coming of age today has lived its entire life in the digital age. They are rapid adopters of new information technology and are not only comfortable, but expect to work collaboratively with others. They multi-task in ways that seem unfathomable to many and increasingly will use their own devices – blurring work/personal use and turning the workplace inside-out. Email, the Internet, vivid real-time interactive games, instant messaging and mobile devices are as natural to children today as the telephone, television and ballpoint pen were to the previous generation

• competing for talent in a shrinking workforce: demographics show an aging, shrinking workforce in most of the developed world over the next 50 years, so maximising the productivity of the workers that are available is critical

talking points• what is an “office” in our new always-connected

world?• what does an automated reply with a subject line

pre-fix of “Out Of Office” mean? Or a calendar schedule that says I’m “Out Of Office”. Huh? What “office”?

• mobility and flexible working are the new reality• ambient / pervasive computing is here• society is changing … can technology keep up?• technology is changing … can society keep up?

– eg. how will we cope with people who are both retired and working and moving rapidly, and continually, between both states?

– where do jurisdictions start and end? If I work for a “UK company” but choose to do my work from France, what does that mean?

• … do we understand these implications? Are we planning for them?

if we can get this right – sample impacts

• transport– reduction in commuting, pressure off roads and

transport infrastructure

• energy– reduction in petrol demand, and the surplus energy

requirements of large office environments (potential Kyoto synergies)

• housing and communities– impact on distribution and localisation (reduction in

tendency for one or two economic hotspots)– preservation of smaller communities through

renewed economic viability– citizens staying longer and more capably in their

communities

• equality of access– disability at work (reducing those in benefits, outside

the productive workforce), enabling greater inclusion through technology

... the reality of technology

anything that is going to significantly impact

us in terms of technology in 10 years is already 10 years old

http://www.billbuxton.com/

summary• the digital era is maturing

– moving from administration/operational support to impact on strategy itself

• digital isn’t about the tech– escape traditional thinking– work anywhere, anytime is reality– users at the centre (creative, interactive, pervasive): both

your own personnel and your customers• engage technology at the inception of business planning

– not as an after-thought• top areas?

– identity / security / privacy (internal /external)– data-sharing/inter-agency working (interop, ontologies, etc)– information/service access (“business APIs”;

intermediaries)– pervasive (ubiquity of access; devices; social impacts)– economics of technological models (what’s best operational

efficiency may not be what’s best for local prosperity)

Source: MIX 07. http://sessions.visitmix.com/ , XB003 - ZAP!, WHAM!, KAPOW!: Windows Presentation Foundation and the Next Generation of Online Comic Book Reading

the changing shape of business – the impact of technology on the business

model

Jerry Fishenden, 2007

[Edited copy: client specific data removed]