1973-11-03 central intelligence bulletin: arab states-israel

7/29/2019 1973-11-03 Central Intelligence Bulletin: Arab States-Israel

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CARAB STATES - ISRAEL: The cease-f i re is beinghonored on both fronts, but talk of the resumptionof hostilities is being heard on each side.

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Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi informed the USand the UN yesterday that Cairo has agreed to allowUS military aircraft to overfly and land in Egypt inconnection with UN Emergency Force (UNEF) operations.Some observers believe that Egyptian efforts arenow directed more toward bolstering Cairo's military

osition than reinforcing the cease-fire.

(continued)3 Nov 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1

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CThe UN Security Council last night authorizedtroops from Canada, Poland, Panama, Nepal, Ghana,Peru, and Indonesia to join the UN Middle Eastpeacekeeping force. The Canadian and Polish con-tribution will consist of logistic units only.Agreement by the Council on this compromise brokethe stalemate over whether to allow Warsaw Pactand NATO members to participate in the UNEF.

Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, PresidentSadat executed some quick summitry earlier this weekin a whirlwind trip to Kuwait, where he conferredwith President Asad and Kuwait's Shaykh Sabah, afterwhich he flew to Riyadh for a meeting with King Fay-sal. The results of Foreign Minister Fahmi's talksin Washington and coordination of plans for nextweek's discussions with Secretary Kissinger were themain items on the agenda. Upon his return, Sadatalso met with Algerian President Boumediene. Detailson the meeting have not been released, but the Alge-rian leader--unhappy with Egypt's acceptance of thecease-fire--may have tried to persuade Sadat to takea hard position on Israeli withdrawal, and perhapseven to renew hostilities.

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3 Nov 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2

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According to an article from Beirut's An-Naharpublished earlier this week, various Palestiniancircles have suggested that one of the followingproposals on representation be adopted:

--a provisional Palestinian government beformed to represent the Palestinian people;--a high-level delegation from the PalestinianLiberation Organization (PLO) represent thebody of Palestinian people; or-- the PLO appoint independent Palestinianfigures to attend the conference.

The press account goes on to say that the entireissue of participation at the conference will be'studied at an extraordinary session of the Pales-tinian National Council to be held soon, perhapsin Cairo. 25X


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WESTERN EUROPE - MIDDLE EAST: Intra-Europeanrivalries and the uneven effects of the Arab oilcutbacks make prospects seem poor for early andconcerted action by the Europeans to deal with theoil crisis. Tensions between effectively embargoedstates and those with more ample supplies may, infact, increase. There are signs of growing pres-sures from some quarters for a united response,which may provoke a serious confrontation withinthe EC.

The oil problem will be on the agenda of anEC Council meeting on 5-6 November, and Middle Eastpolitical developments will also be taken up at aseparate ad hoc session of the foreign ministers"on the margins" of their Council meeting. TheDutch--singled out for an Arab oil boycott--haverequested joint community measures, including ECsharing of oil supplies, and are ready to holdother areas of community policy-making hostage topositive action on oil. The EC Commission, however,has so far only been able to agree to propose acommunity system of export licensing for petroleumproducts--which could allow The Hague to limit suchexports to other EC members as an emergency step.More far-reaching measures are viewed warily byseveral of the Netherlands' partners who fear thatsharing arrangements could bring down Arab wrathon them.

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Hasty EC action thus seems unlikely and a commonstand is also doubtful at a scheduled Council ses-sion on energy policy on 21 November. Concern isnevertheless mounting about the possible consequencesof a prolonged cutback in oil supplies, and communitymembers may find it increasingly difficult to squaretheir professions of the need for European solidarity--given prominence most recently by President Pompidou'scall for a summit of the Nine--with reluctance to acton a concrete problem. Belgium's temptation, forexample, to distance itself from the Dutch in deal-ing bilaterally with Arab suppliers will be countered'by Belgian concern over maintaining its Benelux andEC links, as well as its dependence on the Rotterdam-Antwerp pipeline and Dutch natural gas. The Dutcheconomics minister, in fact, suggested in parliamentthis week that The Hague might transfer natural gasin return for oil.

The British are unenthusiastic about the Dutchrequest for EC oil sharing, but there are some withinthe government who would go along with the demand.Prime Minister Heath, in an interview published yes-terday, called for a common EC energy policy, butexcluded future North Sea oil from an EC oil-sharingarrangement. The US Embassy believes that Heath willultimately stick by EC commitments and support adetermined Dutch request. Amid growing anxiety inWest Germany over the Arab oil threat, including anew Libyan warning of a possible oil cut-off, a gov-ernment spokesman yesterday. said Bonn assumes thatthe oil crisis "will be met with an all-Europeanaction" at next week's community meetings.

Oil sharing is also on the agenda of the OECDOil Committee's High Level Group session on 19 Novem-ber. Despite a consensus of Oil Committee members


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last week that their economies would be seriouslythreatened should the supply shortfalls continue formore than a brief period, there was evident fear ofthe potential reaction of the Arabs to some formalaction such as reactivating the OECD's oil-industryadvisory body. The OECD secretary general is, never-theless, asking the members to consider whether themeeting of the High-Level Group should not be heldearlier. The US attitude toward participation inoil-sharing schemes may be a decisive influence onEuropean efforts within both the community and theOECD. NATO, meanwhile, is preparing for a possiblestudy of the economic and financial consequences forthe alliance of Arab use of the "oil weapon."

On the EC political front, the nine foreignministers may attempt to frame another common decla-ration on a Middle East peace settlement at theirmeeting next week. According to an Italian ForeignMinistry source, however, events in the Middle Eastare outpacing the EC consultations and are likelyto render outmoded anything the Nine have to say.An existing draft declaration generally endorsesSecurity Council resolutions and emphasizes thatany negotiations must take place within the UNframework. The Italians would also like the Nineto take up contributions they might eventually maketoward juridical and military guarantees in theregion, as well as toward economic assistance tothe war-ravaged areas. Any new declaration islikely to be bland, however, because of continuingdifferences among the Nine over how their interestswould be affected by a forthright stand. The Frenchand British also have a lingering belief in theefficacy of their own diplomacy. Heath, for ex-ample, while approving a "European role" in thesearch for a Middle East settlement, told an in-terviewer yesterday that this may still be a matterfor "private" diplomacy rather than "public initia-tives." Whatever comes out of next week's foreignministers' session, the fact that Paris has appar-ently agreed to hold these political consultationsin the same locale as the formal EC Council session


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represents a concession from the normal French in-sistence that community matters be rigidly separatedfrom "politics."

Pompidou's call earlier this week for a summitreflects the urgency of a European response to theMiddle East situation, but may also have the effectof deferring concrete proposals until the heads ofgovernment can meet. The Danish Prime Minister hasnow invited the Nine to meet in Copenhagen on 15-16December. 25I |


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1973-11-03 central intelligence bulletin: arab states-israel

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