1 the approach of peak oil bruce robinson convenor ? ? look out !! something serious is looming on...
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The approach of Peak OilBruce Robinson
Convenor
? ? ? ?
Look out !! Something serious
is looming on the radar
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www.ASPO-Australia.org.auAn Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability
ASPO-Australia Working groupsFinance SectorHealth Sector Social Services SectorRemote indigenous communitiesActive transport (bicycle & walking)Agriculture, Fisheries and FoodBiofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industryLocal Government sectorRegional and city working groupsConstruction IndustryPublic transport sectorDefence and Security EconomicsTourism Young Professionals working group
Senate Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply and
alternative transport fuelsFeb 2007
Part of the international ASPO alliance
= Senate inquiry submission
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Outline
What is Peak Oil ?
the time when global oil production stops rising and starts its final decline
We will never "run out of oil"
"Peak Exports" is even more important, and sooner
● When is the most probable forecast date ? ? 2012 +/- 5 years
● Governments & industry should be preparing for Petrol Droughts & Peak Oil
● Conservation and demand management is very promising "exploring for Negabarrels of oil"
● Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is important for all sectors, including the mining industry.
1930 1970 2010 2050
Peak Oilbutwhen?
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Hurricane Katrina New Orleans
US Federal, State and local Governments were shown to be shortsighted, ill-prepared, uncaring and disorganised.
Australian governments are much less organised for Peak Oil
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0
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
US Oil Production 1900-2006
(million barrels/day)
mb/d
US oil peak 1970
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"A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION"A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari National Iranian Oil CompanyMay 2002
Major and inescapable trends The world's supergiant and giant oil fields are dying off
Even OPEC's oil production has its limits
Global oil crunch at the horizon --- most probably within the present decade.
"...It would take a number of miracles to thwart such a rational scenario..
A series of simultaneous miracles is not possible --for there are limits even to God Almighty's mercifulness".
“Noah built his ark before it started raining”
www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002
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Dr. Sadad I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi AramcoOil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007
Oil and NGL production have remained flat in spite of rising prices ...predict a 10 year plateau a structural ceiling determined by geology
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Monday October 22 2007
Fig. 7 Oil production world summary
2007
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Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review, London
The practical realities
• Worry about flows not reserves• "Deliverability"
“It isn't the size of the tank; it’s the size of the tap” (ASPO-USA)
"40 years reserves left at current production rates"....This is a very misleading statement (ASPO-Aus)
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A simple observation -- or why peak will be earlier than most people expect
‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’
Decline
Expansion
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The real oil discovery trendLongwell, 2002
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Why are oil supplies peaking?
• We are not finding oil fast enough• We are not developing fields fast enough• Too many fields are old and declining• 54 of 65 oil producing countries are in decline!
• Oil supply will peak in 2010/2011 at around 92-94 million barrels/day
• Oil supply in internationaltrade may peak earlier
• Collectively we are still in denial
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Jeff Rubin
September 2007
Canadian Imperial Banking Corporation
Iran 10c/litreVenezuela 2c/l
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from Oilwatch Monthly: ASPO-Netherlands
Rembrandt Koppelaar
World Liquids Exports estimate to July 2007
“Peak Exports” occurs before “Peak Oil”
forecastRubin 2007
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•Please put your hand up if you think that we have crossed the Hubbert Peak
•and hands up those who don’t?
•Undecided
Eric StreitbergEric StreitbergExecutive Director Executive Director ARC Energy LimitedARC Energy Limited
Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association conference
APPEAApril 2005Perth
•1/3rd
•1/3rd
•1/3rd
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Perth’s Central Park building is 249 m high, to top of tower
Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each yeara cube of about 370 metres size
100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower
80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport
If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = 9%
=1.3 EfT3
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Australia China United States
1 kml l
Million barrels/ day 2006 BP Statistical Review, 2007
Australia uses 0.9 China 7.4US 20.6World 83.7 US 1 cubic km oil / year
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Million barrels/day
Actual Forecast
Australia
}$12.5 billion06/07
P50
Consumption
Production
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0 5 10 15
5
0
15
25
Years After Crash Program Initiation
Impact (MM bpd)
20
35EOR
Coal Liquids
Heavy Oil
GTL
Efficient Vehicles
Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of Conventional Oil Production Peaking
A Study for US DOE NETLHirsch, Bezdek and Wendling, 2005
Delay / Rapid growth.
Roughly 35 MM bpd at year 20.
2005
Study
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Time
Cost of Error
COST AS A FUNCTION OF START TIME (Notional)
Premature Start
Peaking Scenario I
- 10 Years Scenario II
- 20 Years Scenario III
“It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the
cost of not being ready on time.”
Alannah MacTiernan, 2004
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Mortgage and Oil Vulnerabilityin Perth
at www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/120/55/
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Another analogy:
The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses,on the outer edge of the outer suburbs
Reliable predictions had been ignored
and there was no effective action to minimise the risks
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Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities
with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities
with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities
with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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Oil shocks may well wipe out entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth and other cities
with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages.
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The outskirts of all Australian cities will be hard hit by oil depletion, as public transport infrastructure is very poor
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2007 }Oil
Gboe/pa World All Oil
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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Priorities1: Awareness and engagement
2: Frugality3: EfficiencyLast: Alternative fuels
[email protected] 0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409
Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly.
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is an important way of minimising exposure and maximising opportunities.
Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports.
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a few more slides follow,in case they are needed for questions
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1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy”3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport.
Australian Government Policy and Action Options
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage.5: SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage..6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes”7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management.8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads.9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system.10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks.11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.
33www.ASPO-Australia.org.Au
Bicycles are powered by biofuel, renewable energy,
either Weetbix or abdominal fat
No shortage of either
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0
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30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
World oil shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand Growth
Deprivation, war
City design/lifestyle
Pricing / taxes
Transport mode shifts
Efficiency
Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands
Other fuels
Gb/year
• no single “Magic Bullet” solution, • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil• Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital
2007
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Blue is water, green is water and oil mixed and red/purple is “dry” oil with little water in it
Ghawar is Saudi Arabia's and the world's biggest oilfieldIf it is at peak, then global peak is probably very close
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Petrol taxes OECD
IEA Dec 2003
PortugalUK
Australia
US
€ 0.80
0.60
0.00
0.20
0.40
Au$cents/litre
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The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher
Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Nominal tax per litre (pence)
Real tax
10
30
50
40
20
0
pence
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2007 }Oil
Gboe/pa World All Oil
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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2007}Oil
}Gas
Gboe/pa World All Oil & Gas (gas at 10,000 cft=1bbl)
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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}0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
2007
World oil shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
ForecastProduction
Demand Trend
Gb/year
0
10
20
30
40
50
Shortfall
By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors
2030
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Urban passenger mode shares Australia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mo
de
sh
are
(p
er
cen
t)
Car
Rail
BusOther
Potterton BTRE 2003
High automobile-dependence
Public transport share is very low
Car
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February 2004
By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.
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China
US
Australia
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48EWG: Zittel & Schindler, LBST, October 2007
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60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Mil
lio
n b
/d Supply IEA
Capacity CS
Capacity CERA
Global liquids capacity to 2015
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0
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20
30
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30
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01930 1970 2010 2050
IEA 2002
Shell
Bauquis, Total Deffeyes
ASPO & Skrebowski
Gb pa
0
2007
Past World Oil Production and Forecasts
Prof. BauquisFrance
Dr Ali Samsam BakhtiariIranSchindler & Zittel, Oct 2007Germany
Chris SkrebowskiUK
Prof. Aleklett, ASPOSweden
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Lord Ron OxburghFormer Chairman, Shell UK Chairman, House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology Honorary Professor, Cambridge UniversityFellow of the Royal Society