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Situation and Outlook for Agricultural Trade

in Colombia and Peru

Including lessons learned from recent trip to South America

Michael DwyerDirector, Global Policy Analysis Division

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

Colombia

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Map of ColombiaLand area is equal with U.K., Germany, and France combined but only 2% is arable

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Exports to Colombia Forecast to Rebound in FY 2011increased competition in grains obscures gains elsewhere – HVPs at record

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Million $

Corn Gluten

Soybeans

Cotton

Wheat

Corn

2000 2010

Columbia Performance Top Commodity Performance

-2%

+99%

+170%

+373%

+2010%

0

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400

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Million

$

2001

2002

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2010

2011

(f)

Consumer Oriented

Intermediate

Bulk Product Exports

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Competition Intensifies in Colombia Imports growing rapidly but Argentina gains ground, particularly in corn

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0.5

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illio

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10%

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U.S

. M

ark

et

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are

U.S. Market Share (%)

Total Agricultural Imports

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Colombia Remains Net Agricultural Exporter United States and EU are the top ag markets for Columbia

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0.5

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1.5

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2.5

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Billion

$

Columbia Ag. Trade Balance

Major exported ag. products are coffee, bananas, cut flowers, beef, and sugar

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Middle Class In Colombia Is Growing…Increases are due to economic growth, urbanization, and broadening distribution of wealth .. implication for future food demand is bullish

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idd

le C

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(m

illi

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15%

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25%

27%

% o

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Middle Class in Columbia

Middle Class Households

% of Pop. in Middle Class

Who Are Our Competitors in Colombia? Value of imports from major suppliers and their market share in FY 2010

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11%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Million $

Peru

Ecuador

Chile

Canada

Bolivia

Brazil

U.S.

Argentina

Competition in Columbia

27%

23%

8%

7%

7%

6%

4%

4%

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Columbia’s Currency Gains vs. the Dollar

Columbia Exchange Rate

1500

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2100

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2500

2700

Pesos / d

ollar

12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10

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FTA Needed to Regain Market Share in ColumbiaCompetitors benefit from growing corn and wheat market in Columbia

Corn Imports Wheat Imports

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Million

$

Other Exporters

U.S.

86%

24%

89%

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Million

$

U.S. Other Exporters

43%

73%

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Market Development in Columbia IncreasesBut remains below $3 million in 2009

MAP & FMD In Columbia

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3.5

Million $

* In 2006 participants in the MAP program transitioned from a year round marketing year to a January-December or July-June marketing year.  To accommodate the transition, the 2005 program year was extended to include 2006 funds.  Thus no funding is reflected for that year. 2005 & 2006 are estimated in the charts

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What Were the Main Trade-Related Findings of the Trip to Colombia?

The numbers don’t lie – overall ag imports rising rapidly. Almost every meeting with gov’t officials and private sector reps confirmed that ag import demand will continue to grow rapidly, due to continued growth in economy, rising middlle class, and a strong Colombian peso. Ag imports could reach almost $5 billion in 2011 – outlook for both bulk commodities and HVPs is promising.

However, lack of an FTA is killing US competitiveness, particularly in grains. FTA with Mercosur and Canada gives greater market access to their corn and wheat. DDGS offer good opportunity but not without elimination of tariff. Growth in US HVPs continues despite tariffs averaging 15% so FTA would boost further. CONCLUSION: FTA would increase annual US exports by $700 million.

Food distribution channels rapidly modernizing. Retail outlets and upscale restaurants proliferating -- mirror those found in the most advanced economies. Helps explain why US HVP exports at record highs.

OUR CHALLENGE: Catching up with our competitors. They know Colombia is a major growth market and targeting the country for bilateral FTAs and market promotion activities (trade shows, in-store promotions, market development).

Does U.S. agribusiness fully appreciate the potential of Colombia? Many view Colombia thru outdated paradigm. Outreach on Colombia’s potential should be a major focus for FAS. Trade mission in June a good start.

Long range threat to import growth? Keep an eye on Meta region – Colombia’s version of Brazil’s Cerrados. Large investors and China eyeing the region for commercial scale farming operations. Could reduce the country’s import demand as local production grows.

Peru

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Map of PeruPeru has the land area of Texas but only 3% is arable

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-20 10 40 70 100 130 160

Million $

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Corn

Cotton

Wheat

2000 2010

Peru Performance Top Commodity Performance

+399%

+613%

+218%

+227%

+65%

0

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Mill

ion

$

Consumer Oriented

Intermediate

Bulk Exports

U.S. Ag Exports to Peru Have More Than QuadrupledExports have surged over the past five years led by grains and cotton

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Peru’s Imports Growing Along with U.S. Share

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Total Ag.Imports ($)

U.S. Market Share (%)

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Peru Reduces Negative Trade BalanceUnited States and EU are the top markets for product from Peru

-0.8

-0.7

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0.1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Billion

$

Peru Ag. Trade Balance

Major exported ag. products are coffee, vegetables (esp asparagus), and fruit (incl mangos)

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Middle Class In Peru Is Growing…Increases are due to economic growth, urbanization, and broadening distribution of wealth .. implication for future food demand is bullish

Middle Class in Peru

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4.5

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7.5M

idd

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% o

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% of Pop. in Middle Class

Middle Class Households

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Who Are Our Competitors in Peru? Value of imports from major suppliers and their market share in FY 2010

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Million $

Brazil

Columbia

Paraguay

Bolivia

Canada

Chile

Argentina

U.S.  28%

18%

8%

8%

7%

5%

7%

Competition in Peru

3%

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FTA and Reduced Competition Helps Increase Market Share in PeruCorn should continue to benefit from rising TRQ

Soybean Oil Corn

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Million

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U.S. Other

86%

35%

0%0

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U.S. Other

35%

12%

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Peru’s Exchange Rate Strengthens vs. Dollar

Peru Exchange Rate

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Nuevo S

ol / dollar

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Market Development in Peru IncreasesBut remains very low – below $500,000 in 2009

MAP & FMD in Peru

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500

* In 2006 participants in the MAP program transitioned from a year round marketing year to a January-December or July-June marketing year.  To accommodate the transition, the 2005 program year was extended to include 2006 funds.  Thus no funding is reflected for that year. 2005 & 2006 are estimated in the charts

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What Were the Main Trade-Related Findings of the Trip to Peru?

Like Colombia, Peru’s overall ag imports rising rapidly. Meetings with gov’t officials and private sector reps confirmed that ag import demand growth is on track – could reach almost $4 billion in 2011. Peru is the new Chile -- commitment to free market principles solid, foreign investment booming, economy growing (one of the fastest in the world in 2010), middlle class expanding, and Peruvian currency to remain strong. All these factors underpin the optimism.

FTA is a factor in the growth of US exports, but macro factors and reduced competition playing a more significant role – right now. Meetings with industry and gov’t officials indicate FTA’s big impacts will come later as economy and food demand expands and market access continues to improve. PROBLEM: Peru signing FTAs with others could undermine our export growth.

Like Colombia, food distribution channels rapidly modernizing. Retail outlets and upscale restaurants proliferating as foreign investment from Chile and elsewhere brings modernization and choice to quality conscious consumers. Helps explain why US HVP exports at record highs.

OUR CHALLENGE: Educating our cooperators of Peru’s potential. Market development is practically non-existent. Competitors are targeting Peru with trade shows and in-store promotions. And with FTAs with competitors proliferating, US exporters should not take Peru for granted.

Does U.S. agribusiness fully appreciate the potential of Peru? No. Like Colombia, many view Peru thru outdated paradigm – Shining Path guerrilas, closed economy and no growth prospects. This is SOOO wrong. Educating U.S. companies on Peru’s potential should be a major focus for FAS. Trade mission in January 2011 a good start.

Questions and Discussion

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