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National Air Quality Forecast Capability:

First Steps Toward Implementation

October 28, 2003

Paula Davidson

National Weather Service

Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting

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OutlineOutline

• Background, VisionBackground, Vision

• Planned Capabilities Planned Capabilities

• October 2003 StatusOctober 2003 Status

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National Air Quality ForecastingNational Air Quality ForecastingBackgroundBackground

Congressional interestCongressional interest• H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment)

S. 517, SA 1383, Forecasts and Warnings: “The Secretary of Commerce, through the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (c) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States…”

NOAA-EPA Agreements• DOC Deputy Secretary and EPA Administrator signed MOU/MOA for

AQ forecasting May 6, 2003Constituent interestConstituent interest• AQ managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners

urge NOAA to provide AQ forecastsScience is matureScience is mature

• Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development• Other nations (Canada, Australia) have existing AQ forecast

capability

Congressional interestCongressional interest• H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment)

S. 517, SA 1383, Forecasts and Warnings: “The Secretary of Commerce, through the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (c) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States…”

NOAA-EPA Agreements• DOC Deputy Secretary and EPA Administrator signed MOU/MOA for

AQ forecasting May 6, 2003Constituent interestConstituent interest• AQ managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners

urge NOAA to provide AQ forecastsScience is matureScience is mature

• Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development• Other nations (Canada, Australia) have existing AQ forecast

capability

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National Air Quality ForecastingNational Air Quality ForecastingVision and StrategyVision and Strategy

Vision National Air Quality Forecast System which National Air Quality Forecast System which provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and other pollutant forecasts with enough accuracy and other pollutant forecasts with enough accuracy and advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce adverse effectsadverse effects

Vision National Air Quality Forecast System which National Air Quality Forecast System which provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and other pollutant forecasts with enough accuracy and other pollutant forecasts with enough accuracy and advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce adverse effectsadverse effects

StrategyStrategyWork with EPA, State and Local Air Quality Work with EPA, State and Local Air Quality agencies and private sector to develop end-to-end air agencies and private sector to develop end-to-end air quality forecast capability for the Nationquality forecast capability for the Nation

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Partnerships in Air Quality ForecastingPartnerships in Air Quality Forecasting

EPAEPA > Maintain current national emissions inventory > Maintain national air quality monitoring databases > Disseminate/interpret national air quality forecast information - AQI and links to public health

STATES / LOCALSSTATES / LOCALS > Provide state/local emissions data > Provide state/local air quality monitoring data > Provide local AQI forecasts/warnings

NOAANOAA > Develop and evaluate tools for national/state/local air quality forecasting > Provide operational air quality models and forecast pollutant concentration fields with national coverage

PUBLIC and COMMERCIAL SECTORSPUBLIC and COMMERCIAL SECTORS

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National Air Quality ForecastingNational Air Quality ForecastingPlanned CapabilitiesPlanned Capabilities

Initial: 1-day forecasts of ozone (OInitial: 1-day forecasts of ozone (O33))• Develop and validate in Northeastern US within 2 yearsDevelop and validate in Northeastern US within 2 years

• Deploy Nationwide within 5 yearsDeploy Nationwide within 5 years

Intermediate (5-7 years):Intermediate (5-7 years):• Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM)

concentration concentration – Particulate size Particulate size << 2.5 microns 2.5 microns

Longer range (within 10 years):Longer range (within 10 years):• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursExtend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours

• Include broader range of significant pollutantsInclude broader range of significant pollutants

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National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOCMajor Components: IOC

NWP ModelNWP Model

Eta-12Eta-12

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS

AQ Module: AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor Emissions Preprocessor

PREMAQPREMAQ

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR and and EPA/ORDEPA/ORD

AQ Module: AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive TransportAir Quality Reactive Transport

CMAQCMAQ

NOAA/OARNOAA/OAR and and EPA/ORDEPA/ORD

Weather Weather

ObservationsObservations

EPA’s National EPA’s National

Emissions Inventory:Emissions Inventory:

EPA/OAQPSEPA/OAQPS

IT /CommsIT /Comms

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS

andand

EPA/OAQPSEPA/OAQPS

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AQ Data from S/L Agencies

Predicted Pollutant

Concentration Fields

EPA Data Management Center

O3 Movies/ Forecasts

Public

NOAA National Center NOAA National Center forforEnvironmental PredictionEnvironmental Prediction

State/Local Air AgenciesState/Local Air Agencies

CommercialWeather

Providers

Initial Operating Capabilty:Initial Operating Capabilty: IT LinksIT Links

Media

City-specificAQI forecasts

EPA EPA Emissions Emissions InventoryInventory

Data “pull” - - ->

Data “push” ________>>

Weather Obs

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Production CycleProduction Cycle

Day 0 Day 1 Day 2

Issue Forecast – 00/1730 UTC

Update Forecast 01/13 UTC

00 UTC

Threshold Forecast Valid 01/04 UTC to 02/04 UTC

Model Run time

Forecast Interval

Forecast Objective

Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC

00 UTC

00 UTC

00 UTC

Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC

Threshold Forecast Valid 01/13 UTC to 02/04 UTC

Next Cycle

1-Day ozone forecasts: Target deployment 9/15/04 for NE US 1-hr and 8-hr avg O3 levels: categories for EPA and in parts per billion (ppb) at NWS Gateway

Delivered 2X daily: Primary forecasts for following day: delivered by 1730 UTC valid for 24 hours through 4 UTC, day 2Update forecasts for current day: delivered by 1300 UTC valid for 15 hours through 4 UTC, next day

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National Air Quality ForecastingNational Air Quality ForecastingInitial Operating SystemInitial Operating System

Linked numerical prediction systemLinked numerical prediction systemOperationally integrated on NCEP’s Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputersupercomputer : : • NCEP mesoscale NWP: NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12Eta-12

• NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQCMAQ

Observational Input: Observational Input: • NWS weather observationsNWS weather observations

• EPA emissions inventoryEPA emissions inventory

Gridded forecast guidance productsGridded forecast guidance productsDelivered to Delivered to NWS Telecommunications GatewayNWS Telecommunications Gateway and and EPAEPA for users to pull for users to pull

Verification basisVerification basis

EPA EPA ground-level ozoneground-level ozone observations observations

Customer outreach/feedbackCustomer outreach/feedbackState & Local AQ forecasters coordinated State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPAwith EPA

Public and Private Sector AQ constituentsPublic and Private Sector AQ constituents

EPA Ozone Monitoring NetworkEPA Ozone Monitoring Network

Test Product: Initial Operational DomainTest Product: Initial Operational Domain

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Success Criteria:Success Criteria: Initial Operating CapabilityInitial Operating Capability

Forecast Performance Accuracy:Forecast Performance Accuracy:

Operational model more accurate than persistence Operational model more accurate than persistence forecast: forecast:

Threshold target: critical level “hit accuracy” predicted on 90% Threshold target: critical level “hit accuracy” predicted on 90% of daysof days

On-time delivery On-time delivery

Forecast guidance provided on schedule: Forecast guidance provided on schedule:

At least 95% At least 95%

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Initial Operating SystemInitial Operating SystemStatus: Development, Testing, IntegrationStatus: Development, Testing, Integration

TaskTask LeadLead DatesDates Status Status 9/039/03

Model DevelopmentModel Development NOAA/NWS and NOAA/NWS and NOAA/EPA/ORDNOAA/EPA/ORD

09/02 – 05/0309/02 – 05/03

Acquire/implement IT Resources Acquire/implement IT Resources NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS 02/03 – 09/0302/03 – 09/03

Model IntegrationModel Integration NOAA/NWS and NOAA/NWS and NOAA/EPA/ORDNOAA/EPA/ORD

04/03-06/0304/03-06/03

Model Testing/optimizationModel Testing/optimization NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS 06/03 – 09/0406/03 – 09/04

Initial: Test products to focus Initial: Test products to focus groupgroup

06/03 – 09/0306/03 – 09/03

Final go/no go decisionFinal go/no go decision 09/0409/04

Develop/implement required Develop/implement required verificationverification

NOAA/NWS and NOAA/NWS and NOAA/EPA/ORDNOAA/EPA/ORD

10/02 – 06/0410/02 – 06/04

Develop required product Develop required product archivingarchiving

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWS 04/03 -- 09/04 04/03 -- 09/04

KeyKey Complete On schedule At risk Remedial Action Required

C

G

G

G

G

C

C

C

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Status: October 2003Status: October 2003

Ozone forecasting: NOAA & EPA Planning for IOC in NE Ozone forecasting: NOAA & EPA Planning for IOC in NE USUS

• Models integrated into NCEP operational environment for twice Models integrated into NCEP operational environment for twice daily test-runs daily test-runs

– 12Z “primary” and 6Z “morning update” predictions12Z “primary” and 6Z “morning update” predictions

– Required HPCC hardware acquired and integrated into NCEP operations Required HPCC hardware acquired and integrated into NCEP operations

– NWS IT architecture and links to EPA in place NWS IT architecture and links to EPA in place

• Summer, 2003 Testing: AQ during summer 2003 in NE US Summer, 2003 Testing: AQ during summer 2003 in NE US unusually good; only a few isolated poor-AQ days unusually good; only a few isolated poor-AQ days

– Model predictions generally corroborated by monitoring data, although Model predictions generally corroborated by monitoring data, although predicted surface ozone concentration levels consistently high predicted surface ozone concentration levels consistently high

– Customer focus group feedback on Summer, 2003 test results: Customer focus group feedback on Summer, 2003 test results: • Workshop with focus group, developers held September 9-10: EncouragingWorkshop with focus group, developers held September 9-10: Encouraging

– Upgrades underway to incorporate feedback, improve accuracy for RTT&E Upgrades underway to incorporate feedback, improve accuracy for RTT&E in 2004 in 2004

• RTT&E in Summer 2004 - - >> commissioning by September, 2004RTT&E in Summer 2004 - - >> commissioning by September, 2004

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National Air Quality ForecastingNational Air Quality ForecastingSummary: First StepsSummary: First Steps

IOC: AQ Forecast guidance produced 2X dailyIOC: AQ Forecast guidance produced 2X daily• Numerical prediction of ground-level ozone Numerical prediction of ground-level ozone

driven by weather forecastsdriven by weather forecasts

• Gridded (12km), hour-by-hour through next dayGridded (12km), hour-by-hour through next day

• Developmental testing in 2003 successfulDevelopmental testing in 2003 successful

• RTT&E (experimental products) in 2004RTT&E (experimental products) in 2004

Phased Deployment PlannedPhased Deployment Planned• September, 2004: September, 2004:

Northeastern US, next-day, ozone. Northeastern US, next-day, ozone.

• Five years: Five years:

Nationwide coverage; begin particulates forecastsNationwide coverage; begin particulates forecasts

• Ten years: Ten years:

Extend forecasts to 2 days and beyond; Extend forecasts to 2 days and beyond;

Add additional pollutantsAdd additional pollutants

Test Product: Initial Operational DomainTest Product: Initial Operational Domain

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National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityNational Air Quality Forecast CapabilityImplementation TeamImplementation Team

Special Thanks To:Special Thanks To:

Nelson Seaman Science AdvisorScience Advisor

Ken Schere and RTP research group at NOAA/EPA/ORD CMAQ AdapationCMAQ Adapation

Paul Stokols Services LeadServices Lead

Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, John Ward et al. at NWS/NCEP

Model Adaptation/ Model Adaptation/ Integration at NCEPIntegration at NCEP

Ken Carey AQF Program AQF Program Administration SupportAdministration Support

Pai-Yei Whung NOAA/OAR AQF NOAA/OAR AQF Research LeadResearch Lead

Fred Branski, Allen Darling et al. at NWS/TOC NWS IT/Comms NWS IT/Comms InfrastructureInfrastructure

Dave Rowson; Chet Wayland, Tim Dye et al. at EPA/Airnow EPA-NOAA EPA-NOAA CoordinationCoordination

Jon Adkins IT Architecture SupportIT Architecture Support

Wil Shaffer, Paul Dallavalle et al. at OST/MDL and Brian Eder, et al. at NOAA/EPA/ORD

Verification StatisticsVerification Statistics