1 milk market situation brussels, 23 february 2012

1

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 23 February 2012

23 February 2012 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU ProductionsEU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Dec 2011 compared to Jan-Dec 2010)

Total Butter+ 2.2%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 2.1%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 12.6%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 3.8%

Cheese+ 0.3%

Fermented milk+ 0.2%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

.

CY only up to November

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Dec 2011 compared to Apr-Dec 2010)

Total Butter+ 2.4%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 11.5%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 7.1%

Cheese+ 0.0%

Fermented milk- 0.1%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.8%

-13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

CY only up to November

23 February 2012 3

-8.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to -2.0% -2.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.0% +2.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +8.0%

+1.3

-7.5

+2.1

-0.6

+2.4

+0.4

+3.9

-7.2+2.0

+5.5

-1.4

+0.8

+5.8

+3.1

-0.3

-2.1

0

0

+4.4

+3.4

+0.7

-1.0+1.2

+1.4

-1.5

-0.3

+1.6


23 February 2012 4

-10.0% to -7.5% -7.5% to -5.0% -5.0% to -2.5% -2.5% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.5% +2.5% to +5.0% +5.0% to +7.5% +7.5% to +10.0%

+0.7

-7.8

+2.7

-0.3

+2.2

-1.6

+1.8

-8.0+1.8

+5.1

-1.3

+1.0

+5.3

+2.1

-0.1

-0.7

0

0

+4.6

+3.6

+0.8

+1.6+1.1

+2.6

-2.0

-0.4

+0.7


23 February 2012 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DecNovOctSepAugJ ulJ unMayAprMarFebJ an

100

0 t

onnes

2008 2009 2010 2011

23 February 2012 6

EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices

1 4

92

1 3

80

1 5

41

1 5

43

1 7

13

1 6

85

1 6

79

1 6

56

1 5

36

1 4

64

1 3

43

1 4

02

1 4

04

1 2

92

1 4

77

1 5

10

1 6

51

1 6

34

1 6

32

1 6

20

1 5

34

1 4

77

1 4

05

1 4

38

1 3

14

1 4

91

1 4

88

1 6

43

1 6

24

1 6

73

1 6

63

1 5

79

1 5

55

1 4

51

1 5

06

9 6

62

9 0

35 10

21

0

10

35

5

10

69

6

10

05

7

9 8

42

9 4

66

8 8

69

9 1

25

8 8

16

9 3

14

9 5

28

8 9

43 10

20

7

10

31

9

10

92

0

10

28

8

10

04

9

9 7

86

9 3

63

9 5

59

9 1

46

9 4

58

9 8

33

9 1

94 10

52

6

10

67

8

11

02

6

10

36

7

10

34

1

9 9

53

9 4

58

9 5

45

9 2

01

9 7

11

1 3

55

23

.36

21

.55

21

.06

21

.12

20

.93

20

.52

20

.99

21

.67

22

.10

22

.89 24

.84

25

.56

26

.05

26

.39

26

.68

26

.60

26

.00

25

.87

25

.99

26

.84

28

.25 3

0.4

4

30

.77

30

.96

31

.11

30

.93

30

.45

30

.48

30

.04

29

.60

30

.14

30

.44

30

.37

30

.33

29

.52

27

.33

25

.06

24

.95

25

.18

25

.51

26

.32

26

.98

27

.57

29

.03

28

.81

29

.40

28

.98

28

.32

28

.41

29

.15

30

.25

31

.33

32

.53

33

.38

33

.50

33

.81

33

.74

33

.64

33

.73

33

.68

33

.32

33

.67

34

.35

34

.85

35

.10

35

.63

35

.71

35

.90

35

.42

30

.12

28

.82

30

.09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ja

n 0

9

Fe

b 0

9

Ma

r 0

9

Ap

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Ju

n 0

9

Ju

l 09

Au

g 0

9

Se

p 0

9

Oc

t 0

9

No

v 0

9

De

c 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Fe

b 1

0

Ma

r 1

0

Ap

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Ju

n 1

0

Ju

l 10

Au

g 1

0

Se

p 1

0

Oc

t 1

0

No

v 1

0

De

c 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Fe

b 1

1

Ma

r 1

1

Ap

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Ju

n 1

1

Ju

l 11

Au

g 1

1

Se

p 1

1

Oc

t 1

1

No

v 1

1

De

c 1

1

Pro

du

ctio

ns

in 1

000

To

ns

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

Pri

ces

in E

UR

/100

kg Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12)

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3

23 February 2012 7Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

Milk Prices Evolution (up to December 2011)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Ap

r 0

1

Oct

01

Ap

r 0

2

Oct

02

Ap

r 0

3

Oct

03

Ap

r 0

4

Oct

04

Ap

r 0

5

Oct

05

Ap

r 0

6

Oct

06

Ap

r 0

7

Oct

07

Ap

r 0

8

Oct

08

Ap

r 0

9

Oct

09

Ap

r 1

0

Oct

10

Ap

r 1

1

Oct

11

EUR/100 kg

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)

23 February 2012 8

EU Milk Prices(December 2011 compared to December 2010)

53.7

47.4 46.645.2

39.137.7 37.6 37.5

36.5 36.4 35.734.7 34.5 33.9 33.7 33.7 32.8 32.7 32.4 32.2 32.2 32.0 32.0

30.2 30.1 30.1 30.028.7

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY EL MT FI IT AT SE NL DK IE DE EU27

LU BG UK BE ES SI PT FR SK EE CZ LV LT HU RO PL

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Milk Price 2010 Milk Price 2011

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

Estimates for BG and CZ

23 February 2012 9Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

EU annual Milk Prices(2011 compared to 2010)

52.1

47.4

38.5 37.936.9

35.7 35.4 34.8 34.433.1 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.3 31.6 31.3 31.3 30.8 30.6 30.5

29.5 29.4 28.8 28.2

34.0

43.043.2

33.3

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT EL FI IT SE NL DK AT DE IE EU27

FR BE LU CZ BG EE SK ES PT HU UK SI PL LV LT RO

in E

UR

/100

kg

.

Average milk price 2010

Average milk price 2011

23 February 2012 10

EU 27 BUTTER+BUTTEROI L Production

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190


100

0 t

onnes

2008 2009 2010 2011

Sources : EUROSTAT Newcronos

Data for DK missing

23 February 2012 11

EU 27 SMP Production

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


100

0 t

onnes

2008 2009 2010 2011


Data for DK missing

23 February 2012 12

EU 25/EU 27 WMP Production

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75


100

0 t

onnes

2008 2009 2010 2011

Data for DK missing

23 February 2012 13

EU 27 CHEESES Production

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740


100

0 t

onnes

2008 2009 2010 2011


Data for DK missing

23 February 2012 14

Monthly EU SMP Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/10

0 k

g

2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

23 February 2012 15

EU SMP Prices(up to 19/02/2012)

249233 232 231 230 229 228 226 226

218

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

UK CZ BE SK LV EU 27 DE PL FR IE

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010

23 February 2012 16

Monthly EU BUTTER Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00

kg

2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009


23 February 2012 17

EU Butter Prices (up to 19.02.2012)

385

354 351337 335 335 328

395

317327327329

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

SK LV GB CZ PT EU 27 BE IE DE ES NL PL

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010

Butter Intervention price

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010

23 February 2012 18

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

334.8

228.6

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan 0

3

Apr

03

Jul 03

Oct

03

Jan 0

4

Apr

04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan 0

5

Apr

05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan 0

6

Apr

06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan 0

7

Apr

07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan 0

8

Apr

08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan 0

9

Apr

09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan 1

0

Apr

10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan 1

1

Apr

11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan 1

2

in E

UR/10

0 k

g .

BUTTER SMP

23 February 2012 19

Monthly EU WMP Prices

150170190210230250270290310330350370390410

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012


23 February 2012 20

Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly EU EDAM Prices

200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011 2009 2010 2012


23 February 2012 21

Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011 2009 2010 2012


23 February 2012 22

EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Jul 1

1

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

Jan

12

EU

R f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: Reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

23 February 2012 23

WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Jul 1

1

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

Jan

12

US

D f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: USDA

23 February 2012 24

USD/EUR

1.3230

Source: European Central Bank

23 February 2012 25

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

3 900

4 410

3 090

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov 0

4

Feb

05

May

05

Aug

05

Nov

05

Feb

06

May

06

Aug

06

Nov

06

Feb

07

May

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news

23 February 2012 26

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

3 350

3 010

2 860

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Nov

04

Feb

05

May

05

Aug

05

Nov

05

Feb

06

May

06

Aug

06

Nov

06

Feb

07

May

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation


23 February 2012 27

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

3 5503 730

3 730

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Nov

04

Feb

05

May

05

Aug

05

Nov

05

Feb

06

May

06

Aug

06

Nov

06

Feb

07

May

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


23 February 2012 28

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

4 138

4 430

3 270

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Nov

04

Feb

05

May

05

Aug

05

Nov

05

Feb

06

May

06

Aug

06

Nov

06

Feb

07

May

07

Aug

07

Nov

07

Feb

08

May

08

Aug

08

Nov

08

Feb

09

May

09

Aug

09

Nov

09

Feb

10

May

10

Aug

10

Nov

10

Feb

11

May

11

Aug

11

Nov

11

Feb

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


23 February 2012 29

BUTTER Exports

36 22623 592

126 236

94 735

255 188245 393

52 49645 489

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)New Zealand (Jan-Dec )Australia (Jan-Dec )United States (Jan-Dec )

23 February 2012 30

BUTTEROIL Exports

27 278

155 446

15 04111 40026 782

147 134

17 76710 514

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

2010 2011


23 February 2012 31

SMP Exports

132 008 140 358

436 233

378 838

517 812

361 602343 371383 933

-50 000

50 000

150 000

250 000

350 000

450 000

550 000

2010 2011


23 February 2012 32

WMP Exports

389 767

1 110 408

52 746 21 835

447 173

948 700

116 241114 540

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2010 2011


23 February 2012 33

CHEESESExports

676 086 682 148

264

819

.

253

142

.

159

910

.

167

669

.

175 143225 933

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2010 2011


23 February 2012 34

EU Exports (1/2)

212 215194

164118 119 126

0

50

100

150

200

250

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

BUTTER exports BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1000 tonnes

2010

2011

WMP exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes

254194

89

203 179231

379

0

100

200

300

400

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SMP exports SMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

23 February 2012 35

EU Exports (2/2)

552 546 584 596 555 578676

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CHEESE exports

512 493438

367

485 463 445

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

WMP exports

CHEESE exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

WMP exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

23 February 2012 36

EU-27 Dairy EXPORTS in 2011in TONNES

Source : EUROSTAT (COMEXT)

BU

TT

ER

BU

TT

ER

OIL

SM

P

WM

P

CH

EE

SE

S

CO

ND

EN

SE

D

WH

EY

PO

WD

ER

CA

SE

INE

S

EXTRA EU27 88 614 22 431 517 443 389 741 678 048 239 116 450 270 62 558Russia 20 316 4 190 17 606 2 498 206 246 253 25 506 406

Algeria 1 016 2 205 120 515 57 261 15 681 1 689 1 867 1 147

China 1 279 280 26 099 5 918 2 648 2 254 139 197 3 113

USA 2 592 32 180 583 108 169 378 160 17 829

Saudi Arabia 2 333 1 654 13 905 17 514 17 510 45 322 3 026 858

Nigeria 395 1 440 26 362 48 047 449 24 003 1 181 144

Indonesia 2 143 1 182 32 228 5 476 721 58 644 1 243

U.A.Emirates 2 219 358 8 368 11 017 10 471 42 847 1 880 13

Egypt 1 365 894 33 906 12 860 11 170 971 9 033 1 131

Japan 3 098 351 4 172 9 43 904 272 10 275 2 211

Switzerland 249 54 107 491 48 883 375 5 327 622

Malaysia 219 452 14 231 335 1 145 187 37 230 178

Thailand 280 661 14 892 713 1 788 184 28 999 2 498

South Korea 488 20 21 721 1 504 11 398 81 9 927 1 800

Singapore 7 266 188 13 996 8 197 2 235 479 13 946 308

Oman 234 128 27 39 973 513 5 148 25

23 February 2012 37

EU-27 Dairy IMPORTS in 2011in TONNES

Source : EUROSTAT (COMEXT)

BU

TT

ER

BU

TT

ER

OIL

SM

P

WM

P

CH

EE

SE

S

CO

ND

EN

SE

D

WH

EY

PO

WD

ER

CA

SE

INE

S

EXTRA EU27 29 909 602 411 271 72 348 50 3 883 7 697Switzerland 9 1 12 19 49 949 1 1 490 9

New Zealand 29 348 550 49 16 14 990 0 107 2 420

Norway 1 0 115 2 777 468 34

Australia 1 2 585 46 113

Ukraine 2 406

USA 19 0 12 10 1 293 0 914 149

China 1 31 23 39 1 462

Israel 0 110 60 767

Belarus 0 760

Iceland 500 240

Croatia 13 356

Algeria 154 26

Russia 20 0 16 15 88

India 1 127

Mexico 105

Vietnam 0 45 16

23 February 2012 38

EU Exports of Dairy products (extra trade)

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

BU

TT

ER

BU

TT

ER

OIL

SM

P

WM

P

CH

EE

SE

S

CO

ND

EN

SE

D

WH

EY

PO

WD

ER

CA

SE

INE

S

To

nn

es

2010

2011

EU Imports of Dairy products (extra trade)

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

BU

TT

ER

BU

TT

ER

OIL

SM

P

WM

P

CH

EE

SE

S

CO

ND

EN

SE

D

WH

EY

PO

WD

ER

CA

SE

INE

S

To

nn

es

2010

2011

23 February 2012 39

BUTTER Imports

66 728 65 902

37 49539 983

6 5105 741

18 36614 902

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)United States (Jan-Dec )Russia (Jan-Dec )China (Jan-Dec )

23 February 2012 40

BUTTEROIL Imports

2 885

6 540

23 047

8 547

2 367

8 185

32 837

17 290

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)United States (Jan-Dec )Mexico (Jan-Nov )China (Jan-Dec )

23 February 2012 41

SMP Imports

88 544

129 868

90 728

3 825 468

27 179

62 81853 334

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)

Russia (Jan-Dec )

China (Jan-Dec )

Algeria (Jan-Jul )

23 February 2012 42

WMP Imports

1 730

140 476

325 530 319 723

1 974

101 023

7 711 8 285

-40 000

10 000

60 000

110 000

160 000

210 000

260 000

310 000

360 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)

Algeria (Jan-Jul )

United States (Jan-Dec )

China (Jan-Dec )

23 February 2012 43

CHEESESImports

82 507 73 533

294 280 295 732

199 081215 262

138 296 142 995

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Dec)Russia (Jan-Dec )Japan (Jan-Dec )United States (Jan-Dec )

23 February 2012 44

Main Dairy Importers (Butter)

70 67

101

67 7550

67

0

25

50

75

100

125

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Russia

Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : - 1.2%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

20102011

32 34 27

0

25

50

75

100

125

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Egypt

Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 15.8%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


1000 tonnes

20102011

2011

Up to Nov 2010

23 February 2012 45

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P.)

141 155

111 121152 165 155

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mexico

Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 25%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000 tonnes

20102011

90 8468

91 105 93 98

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Algeria

Jan-Jul 2011 compared to 2010 : + 70%

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

Up to Nov 2010

23 February 2012 46

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P.)

90 64 73 58 46

177

326

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ChinaJan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : - 2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2009

2010

2011

625 1 144

47

240

149

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Nigeria

Jan-Sep 2011 compared to 2010 : - 58%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

23 February 2012 47

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

213260

218 234 248 229294

0

50

100

150

200

250

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Russia

Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 0%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

219 212 207 225187 184 199

0

50

100

150

200

250

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Japan


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


1000 tonnes

20102011

23 February 2012 48

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

75 79 79 86 68 73 80

0

50

100

150

200

250

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mexico

216 211 205 200171 162 138

0

50

100

150

200

250

1000 Tonnes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

United States

Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : - 1%

0

5

10

15

20


1000 tonnes

2010

2011


0

5

10

15

20


1000 tonnes

2010

2011

23 February 2012 49

Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT)

BUTTER - Top 10 Importers in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010up to

Jan-Dec 2010

Jan-Dec 2011

Russia 75 193 50 102 66 728 66 728 65 902 - 1.2%

Iran 33 076 54 766 55 678 55 678 52 414 - 5.9%

EU27 (External Trade) 56 447 59 206 37 568 37 495 39 983 + 6.6%

Egypt 31 794 33 594 26 671 Nov 22 821 26 454 + 15.9%

Morocco 33 016 28 778 24 850 24 850 26 877 + 8.2%

Australia 16 758 16 142 16 639 16 639 16 792 + 0.9%

Singapore 16 750 14 045 15 934 Nov 14 213 14 702 + 3.4%

China 7 832 17 152 14 902 14 902 18 366 + 23.2%

Taiwan 8 586 8 703 11 984 Nov 10 833 12 564 + 16.0%

Japan 18 154 332 2 033 2 033 14 025 + 589.9%

23 February 2012 50


BUTTEROIL - Top 10 Importers in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010up to

Jan-Dec 2010

Jan-Dec 2011

Mexico 34 848 55 623 36 251 Nov 32 837 23 047 - 29.8%

Nigeria 13 360 18 489 27 150 Sep 23 958 2 868 - 88.0%

Philippines 11 702 17 044 20 419 Nov 18 929 19 476 + 2.9%

India 699 22 571 19 202 Jun 10 583 335 - 96.8%

Indonesia 5 850 8 028 8 683 Nov 8 345 6 357 - 23.8%

China 5 650 10 874 8 547 8 547 17 290 + 102.3%

Thailand 10 838 6 939 8 432 8 432 11 516 + 36.6%

United States 10 550 14 836 8 185 8 185 6 540 - 20.1%

United Arab Emirates 6 859 7 701 Sep 5 154 6 207 + 20.4%

Russia 4 871 3 930 5 360 5 360 7 542 + 40.7%

23 February 2012 51


SMP - Top 10 Importers in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010up to

Jan-Dec 2010

Jan-Dec 2011

Mexico 152 466 165 067 154 895 Nov 143 509 179 292 + 24.9%

Indonesia 77 102 103 800 132 229 Nov 125 211 118 807 - 5.1%

Philippines 80 074 112 431 109 874 Nov 101 909 106 004 + 4.0%

Algeria 104 722 92 624 98 313 Jul 53 334 90 728 + 70.1%

China 54 965 70 443 88 544 88 544 129 868 + 46.7%

Malaysia 78 230 84 044 87 790 Nov 80 578 87 189 + 8.2%

Russia 11 534 7 973 62 818 62 818 27 179 - 56.7%

Singapore 54 348 61 431 61 717 Nov 57 474 56 283 - 2.1%

Thailand 60 666 50 116 59 356 59 356 63 703 + 7.3%

Egypt 36 636 28 137 45 302 Nov 40 558 44 295 + 9.2%

23 February 2012 52


WMP - Top 10 Importers in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010up to

Jan-Dec 2010

Jan-Dec 2011

China 45 963 177 345 325 530 325 530 319 723 - 1.8%

Algeria 152 584 200 176 166 866 Jul 101 023 140 476 + 39.1%

Nigeria 46 854 239 859 148 665 Sep 107 050 44 797 - 58.2%

Singapore 73 248 73 869 82 532 Nov 75 102 73 052 - 2.7%

United Arab Emirates 84 685 77 592 Sep 61 891 64 525 + 4.3%

Sri Lanka 56 996 56 022 67 064 67 064 75 779 + 13.0%

Venezuela 243 037 214 518 50 514 Nov 41 252 98 091 + 137.8%

Indonesia 84 335 50 311 42 838 Nov 39 792 62 365 + 56.7%

Hong Kong 24 893 32 606 38 880 38 880 51 112 + 31.5%

Brazil 22 963 57 204 37 958 37 958 54 827 + 44.4%

23 February 2012 53


CHEESE - Top 10 Importers in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010up to

Jan-Dec 2010

Jan-Dec 2011

Russia 248 279 228 550 294 280 294 280 295 732 + 0.5%

Japan 186 502 184 241 199 081 199 081 215 262 + 8.1%

United States 170 616 162 499 138 296 138 296 142 995 + 3.4%

EU27 (External Trade) 84 462 83 677 82 504 82 507 73 533 - 10.9%

Mexico 68 245 73 074 80 359 Nov 71 407 70 341 - 1.5%

Australia 68 093 65 131 75 612 75 612 72 425 - 4.2%

Egypt 21 238 22 751 67 710 Nov 39 112 43 988 + 12.5%

South Korea 47 386 49 024 60 972 60 972 76 222 + 25.0%

Nigeria 3 697 10 115 55 483 Sep 55 348 520 - 99.1%

Switzerland 41 071 44 103 46 892 46 892 48 893 + 4.3%

23 February 2012 54

BUTTER - Top 15 Exporters in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Dec

to EU 2010to % % up to

New Zealand 269 538 330 539 278 211 Iran 14% 12% 245 392 255 189 + 4%

EU27 (External Trade) 114 612 113 651 122 126 Russia 24% #N/A 126 236 94 735 - 25%

United States 82 997 23 064 47 837 Saudi Arabia 21% 5% 45 489 52 496 + 15%

Australia 29 162 50 213 36 226 Russia 16% #N/A 36 225 23 595 - 35%

Argentina 14 558 14 206 10 582 Russia 32% 1% 10 434 19 332 + 85%

Uruguay 9 701 17 736 9 936 Russia 26% #N/A 6 882 9 941 Sep + 44%

Norway 4 903 4 807 3 381 EU27 34% 34% 2 219 456 - 79%

India 9 440 1 566 #N/A ##### #N/A 507 2 730 Jun + 438%

Brazil 3 838 1 963 4 504 Egypt 34% #N/A 4 505 1 125 - 75%

China 4 393 2 049 3 038 Iran 43% 1% 3 001 3 259 + 9%

Switzerland 30 4 266 4 471 Turkey 50% 7% 4 146 5 425 + 31%

Singapore 3 106 1 923 1 802 Japan 51% 1 604 2 344 Nov + 46%

Ukraine 5 032 645 437 Kazakhstan 50% 0% 400 1 076 Nov + 169%

Chile 1 776 892 3 067 Peru 20% #N/A 3 067 3 698 + 21%

Russia 2 102 2 151 1 445 Azerbaijan 61% 1 444 1 174 - 19%

Main Destination

Jan-Dec

2011

23 February 2012 55

BUTTEROIL - Top 15 Exporters in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Dec


New Zealand 106 840 177 101 147 810 United States 11% 0.5% 147 137 155 447 + 6%

EU27 (External Trade) 31 508 28 008 25 607 Russia 16% #N/A 26 782 27 278 + 2%

Australia 16 728 30 258 17 769 Thailand 12% #N/A 17 767 15 040 - 15%

United States 11 052 6 042 12 356 Mexico 41% 7.7% 11 400 10 515 - 8%

Egypt 9 549 3 147 6 238 Syria 20% 0.5% 5 254 3 932 Nov - 25%

Argentina 7 876 2 581 4 152 Philippines 23% #N/A 4 152 7 238 + 74%

India 9 450 4 209 #N/A ##### #N/A 2 282 3 744 Jun + 64%

Yemen 7 663 2 684 2 475 Ethiopia 64% #N/A 2 179 1 511 Sep - 31%

Singapore 4 190 3 472 3 204 Japan 19% #N/A 3 066 2 134 Nov - 30%

Malaysia 1 545 1 384 3 525 Saudi Arabia 18% #N/A 3 507 2 417 Nov - 31%

Indonesia 275 1 083 974 Philippines 92% #N/A 882 447 Nov - 49%

South Africa 541 405 562 Zimbabwe 88% 503 135 Nov - 73%

United Arab Emirates 423 731 Singapore 24% 0.1% 635 313 Sep - 51%

Canada 713 187 125 United States 95% #N/A 125 163 + 30%

Honduras 84 657 Guatemala 100% #N/A 659 771 + 17%

Main Destination

Jan-Dec

2011

23 February 2012 56

SMP - Top 15 Exporters in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Dec


United States 398 033 248 020 385 013 Mexico 30% 0.3% 383 934 436 233 + 14%

New Zealand 242 036 408 010 343 398 China 15% 0.0% 343 371 361 603 + 5%

EU27 (External Trade) 179 076 231 183 378 412 Algeria 25% #N/A 378 838 517 812 + 37%

Australia 126 264 167 633 132 640 Indonesia 14% 0.5% 132 008 140 358 + 6%

Ukraine 43 624 26 998 13 895 Bangladesh 28% #N/A 11 662 21 167 Nov + 82%

India 43 794 15 413 #N/A ##### #N/A 10 076 2 868 Jun - 72%

Switzerland 6 371 26 733 23 079 Egypt 17% 3.3% 22 324 14 329 - 36%

Argentina 13 935 12 570 19 765 Brazil 47% #N/A 19 765 18 531 - 6%

Uruguay 9 358 19 529 11 360 Brazil 39% 7 582 13 705 Sep + 81%

Singapore 14 892 9 108 9 533 Japan 37% 0.1% 8 611 15 916 Nov + 85%

Canada 11 725 10 443 6 124 Thailand 29% 0.4% 6 100 9 871 + 62%

Malaysia 8 297 5 768 6 680 United Arab Emirates17% #N/A 5 273 8 233 Nov + 56%

Jordan 6 839 6 446 2 970 Iraq 61% #N/A 2 483 2 262 Nov - 9%

Iran 3 109 2 414 7 489 Iraq 79% #N/A 7 491 4 764 - 36%

United Arab Emirates 6 461 3 298 Somalia 41% 2 051 2 840 Sep + 38%

Main Destination

Jan-Dec

2011

23 February 2012 57

WMP - Top 15 Exporters in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Dec


New Zealand 606 666 819 089 949 778 China 31% 0.1% 948 701 1 110 408 + 17%

EU27 (External Trade) 484 939 462 841 444 210 Algeria 15% #N/A 447 173 389 767 - 13%

Australia 140 915 133 418 114 695 Singapore 15% 0.1% 114 541 116 241 + 1%

Argentina 103 419 146 823 128 059 Venezuela 28% #N/A 128 058 200 272 + 56%

Singapore 62 413 57 805 64 199 Japan 41% 0.1% 58 616 46 282 Nov - 21%

Uruguay 39 293 54 381 61 459 Venezuela 25% #N/A 41 794 38 587 Sep - 8%

United States 41 200 23 210 53 789 Mexico 20% 1.9% 52 745 21 835 - 59%

Philippines 44 915 28 570 37 802 Malaysia 28% 0.0% 34 207 40 429 Nov + 18%

Brazil 82 895 12 923 5 078 Algeria 48% 5 078 1 217 - 76%

United Arab Emirates 49 996 43 688 Saudi Arabia 41% 0.1% 36 647 44 324 Sep + 21%

Indonesia 40 691 25 505 16 737 Malaysia 27% #N/A 15 722 9 319 Nov - 41%

China 62 388 9 738 2 781 Myanmar 48% #N/A 2 780 9 127 + 228%

Malaysia 40 226 17 984 13 405 Singapore 23% #N/A 12 595 10 019 Nov - 20%

Chile 14 545 13 928 8 864 Brazil 30% #N/A 8 864 14 043 + 58%

Ukraine 21 218 4 708 6 110 Russia 54% 5 814 2 119 Nov - 64%

Main Destination

Jan-Dec

2011

23 February 2012 58

CHEESE - Top 15 Exporters in 2010

Tons

2008 2009 2010 Jan-Dec


EU27 (External Trade) 554 578 577 850 675 987 Russia 32% #N/A 676 086 682 148 + 1%

New Zealand 262 567 315 780 287 200 Australia 19% 8% 264 818 253 142 - 4%

Australia 166 415 168 255 162 954 Japan 52% 2% 159 909 167 669 + 5%

United States 139 252 112 025 178 017 Mexico 27% 2% 175 142 225 931 + 29%

Egypt 101 025 130 459 167 847 Saudi Arabia 22% 0% 151 452 157 267 Nov + 4%

Switzerland 100 959 105 013 106 101 EU27 45% 45% 58 379 59 904 + 3%

Ukraine 77 427 76 567 79 315 Russia 83% 0% 72 479 72 167 Nov - 0%

Argentina 36 213 48 076 45 103 Brazil 31% #N/A 45 105 60 054 + 33%

Uruguay 28 937 35 170 39 822 Venezuela 46% #N/A 26 850 27 370 Sep + 2%

Nicaragua 29 760 28 535 26 022 El Salvador 78% #N/A 26 022 30 213 + 16%

Turkey 19 825 23 383 26 782 Saudi Arabia 34% 0% 26 781 30 524 + 14%

Russia 23 757 21 196 18 291 Ukraine 39% 0% 18 290 13 825 - 24%

Morocco 17 169 17 701 17 247 Jordan 25% 0% 17 209 15 234 - 11%

Norway 17 496 15 594 16 308 United States 44% 17% 13 543 14 048 + 4%

Iran 7 744 12 581 18 089 Iraq 83% 0% 18 026 22 574 + 25%

Main Destination

Jan-Dec

2011

23 February 2012 59

Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.8% (real monthly production)

in t

on

nes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA

U.S. milk production

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

23 February 2012 60


U.S. milk production

6 000

6 200

6 400

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec


in t

on

nes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA

23 February 2012 61

Source: Dairy Australia

Australian milk production

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Jul-Jan 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 3.8%

in t

on

nes

.

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

23 February 2012 62

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

NZ milk production

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun-Nov 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 8.6%

in t

on

nes

.

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

23 February 2012 63

Prices

in US$/t Mar12 Apr12 May12-Jul12 Aug12-Oct12

Weighted average

price % changeContract period 1

Contract period 2

Contract period 3

Contract period 4

AMF n.a. 3 406 3 632 4 110 3 546 - 10.0% - 10.3% - 10.8% - 4.9%

BMP n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Cheeses n.a. 3 503 3 608 n.a. 3 559 - 2.2% - 2.1% - 2.7%

MPC70 n.a. 5 470 5 660 n.a. 5 571 + 0.0% + 4.8% - 5.5%

Rennet Casein n.a. 7 735 7 725 n.a. 7 730 + 0.2% + 0.1% + 0.3%

SMP 2 830 3 246 3 391 3 473 3 259 - 1.1% - 5.9% - 0.6% - 2.4% + 0.5%

WMP n.a. 3 386 3 446 3 586 3 421 - 3.2% - 3.1% - 5.4% + 4.0%

15.02.2012 1 € = 1.3092 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Mar12 Apr12 May12-Jul12 Aug12-Oct12

Weighted average

price

AMF 2 601 2 774 3 139 2 709BMP n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Cheese 2 675 2 756 #VALUE! 2 718MPC70 4 178 4 323 #VALUE! 4 256Rennet Casein 5 908 5 901 #VALUE! 5 905SMP 2 162 2 479 2 590 2 653 2 490WMP 2 586 2 632 2 739 2 613

Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

% change by contract from previous auction

Results of the Fonterra Auction of 15.02.2012

1 milk market situation brussels, 23 february 2012

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