milk market situation brussels, 21 october 2010. market situation, 21 october 20102 !!! data from...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 21 October 2010

Market Situation, 21 October 2010 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Jul 2010 compared to Jan-Jul 2009)

Total Butter- 5.4%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 0.0%

Skimmed-milk powder- 10.9%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 2.8%

Cheese+ 1.8%

Fermented milk+ 2.8%

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(April-Jul 10 compared to April-Jul 09)

Total Butter- 2.7%

Skimmed-milk powder- 7.6%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 4.7%

Cheese+ 2.1%

Fermented milk+ 2.8%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.0%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

Market Situation, 21 October 2010 3Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

9 000

9 500

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2007 2008 2009 2010


Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

Milk Prices Evolution (up to August 2010)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan

01

Jul 0

1

Jan

02

Jul 0

2

Jan

03

Jul 0

3

Jan

04

Jul 0

4

Jan

05

Jul 0

5

Jan

06

Jul 0

6

Jan

07

Jul 0

7

Jan

08

Jul 0

8

Jan

09

Jul 0

9

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

EUR/100 kg

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)


EU Milk Prices(August 2010 compared to August 2009)

51.4

41.8

39.3

36.835.1

34.1 33.832.8 32.2 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.5 31.1

29.929.1 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6

25.324.4

22.921.2

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT FI EL SE FR NL IT DK IE AT DE EU27

BE LU UK ES CZ EE PL PT SK BG SI HU LV LT RO

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Milk Price 2009 Milk Price 2010

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

August data not received from PT, replaced by DG Agri estimates / Agrimer estimate for FR


Monthly EU15/25 SMP Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2007 2008 2009 2 010 I P 2009

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010


EU SMP Prices(up to 14/10/10)

241.1229.0 224.9 224.8 221.7 221.0 217.5 213.5 211.4 210.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

LV FR PL SK EU 27 BE DE IE CZ UK

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Weeks in 2010

EU

R/1

00 k

g kg

SMP Intervention qualityEU weighted average

SMP Animal feed qualityEU weighted average

Comparison of EU weighted average SMP prices for food and feed purposes



Monthly EU15/25 BUTTER Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2007 2008 2009 2 010 I P 2009



EU Butter Prices (up to 17.10.2010)

414

383 377 373 367 362 359359 356 350 345339

298

339

428

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

HU SK DE NL GB DK BE PL CZ FR PT IT IE LV ES

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010

Butter Intervention price

EU-27 weighted average

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

2 217

3 614

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

Jan

03

May

03

Sep

03

Jan

04

May

04

Sep

04

Jan

05

May

05

Sep

05

Jan

06

May

06

Sep

06

Jan

07

May

07

Sep

07

Jan

08

May

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

May

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

May

10

Sep

10

Pri

ces

in E

UR

/to

nn

e

SMP Butter

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

Market Situation, 21 October 2010 12Source: MS’ communications

13 021 T.

Butter Stocks20.10.2010

Private Storage : 63 975 Tons

Intervention Stocks : 4 263 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 1 545 TonsAvailable : 0 Ton

84 T.

254 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

182 T.

0 T.

1 363 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

5 313 T.

8 094 T.

1 T.

0 T.

5 550 T.

17 066 T.

0 T.

104 T.

0 T.

8 039 T.

2 220 T.

12 577 T.

Market Situation, 21 October 2010 13Source: MS’ communications

Intervention Stocks : 195 337 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 93 899 Tonsavailable for sale : 54 705 Tons

SMP Stocks06.10.2010

24 122T.

63 463 T.

32 170 T.

23 888T.

17 835 T.

16 646 T

3 046 T.

3 614 T. 1 052 T.

1 665 T.

4 632 T.

2 597 T.

607 T. 0 T.


Monthly EU15/25 WMP Prices

150170

190210230250

270290310

330350370

390410

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2007 2008 2009 2 010 Virt. I P 2009



Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010

Monthly EU15/25 EDAM Prices

200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2007 2008 2009 2 010



Monthly EU15/25 WheyPowder Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2007 2008 2009 2 010



EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

EU

R f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter


WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

US

D f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter


USD/EUR

1.3861

Source: European Central Bank


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

4 350

5 045

4 815

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Ju

n 0

3

Oct

03

Fe

b 0

4

Jun

04

Oct

04

Fe

b 0

5

Jun

05

Oct

05

Fe

b 0

6

Jun

06

Oct

06

Fe

b 0

7

Jun

07

Oct

07

Fe

b 0

8

Jun

08

Oct

08

Fe

b 0

9

Jun

09

Oct

09

Fe

b 1

0

Jun

10

Oct

10

Pri

ce

s i

n U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

3 150

3 095

2 700

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Jun

03

Oct

03

Feb

04

Jun

04

Oct

04

Feb

05

Jun

05

Oct

05

Feb

06

Jun

06

Oct

06

Feb

07

Jun

07

Oct

07

Feb

08

Jun

08

Oct

08

Feb

09

Jun

09

Oct

09

Feb

10

Jun

10

Oct

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

3 450

3 800

3 725

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000Ju

n 03

Oct

03

Feb

04

Jun

04

Oct

04

Feb

05

Jun

05

Oct

05

Feb

06

Jun

06

Oct

06

Feb

07

Jun

07

Oct

07

Feb

08

Jun

08

Oct

08

Feb

09

Jun

09

Oct

09

Feb

10

Jun

10

Oct

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

4 050

4 385

3 890

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Jun

03

Oct

03

Feb

04

Jun

04

Oct

04

Feb

05

Jun

05

Oct

05

Feb

06

Jun

06

Oct

06

Feb

07

Jun

07

Oct

07

Feb

08

Jun

08

Oct

08

Feb

09

Jun

09

Oct

09

Feb

10

Jun

10

Oct

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation



BUTTER Exports

33 95421 852

81 428 78 918

147 684

174 265

32 957

8 354

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)New Zealand (Jan-Aug )Australia (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )


BUTTEROIL Exports

17 526

89 514

11 8833 368

19 116

111 929

20 963

6 198

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2009 2010



SMP Exports

119

379

73 7

55

223 398

134 755

251 629

220 229

260 689

164 050

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)

New Zealand (Jan-Aug )

Australia (Jan-Aug )

United States (Jan-Aug )


WMP Exports

312 573

580 142

11 080 3 996

327 372

509 11991

406

68 4

42

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)

New Zealand (Jan-Aug )

Australia (Jan-Aug )

Brazil (Jan-Aug )


CHEESESExports

362 488

434 217 1

91 3

48

183

386

102

446

106

161

69 589

114 592

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2009 2010



BUTTER Imports

34 721 36 023

28 138

23 880

3 4075 884

10 29310 384

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)United States (Jan-Aug )Russia (Jan-Aug )China (Jan-Aug )


BUTTEROIL Imports

1 749

7 347

19 233

7 944

1 813

10 529

25 113

5 771

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)United States (Jan-Aug )Mexico (Jan-Jun )China (Jan-Aug )


SMP Imports

45 761

60 008

33 467

3 884 2 702

63 633

88 539

1 502

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)

Mexico (Jan-Jun )

China (Jan-Aug )

Russia (Jan-Aug )


WMP Imports

1 478 5 392

117 356

226 606

136 15 512 205 7 269

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)

United States (Jan-Aug )

Russia (Jan-Aug )

China (Jan-Aug )


CHEESESImports

51 225 53 664

143 150

187 381

117 568130 816

105 233

84 327

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

2009 2010

EU-27 (Jan - Aug)Russia (Jan-Aug )Japan (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )


Prices

in US$/t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11Weighted

average price % changeAMF 5 175 5 126 5 470 5 196 -1.2%BMP 3 000 3 125 no offer 3 033 -1.1%SMP 2 927 3 094 3 250 3 072 -4.7%WMP 3 485 3 470 3 542 3 484 -1.1%

19/10/2010 1 € = 1.3859 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11Weighted

average priceAMF 3 734 3 699 3 947 3 749BMP 2 165 2 255 #VALUE! 2 188SMP 2 112 2 232 2 345 2 216WMP 2 515 2 504 2 556 2 514

Quantitiesin t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11 Total Diff volumeAMF 850 1 500 450 2 800 0BMP 700 300 1 000 0SMP 3 000 3 500 2 000 8 500 1 500WMP 10 500 11 000 2 500 24 000 2 000

Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

Results of the Fonterra Auction of 19.10.2010


Anhydrous Milk Fat

Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

AMF - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

03-Nov-09 01-Dec-09

05-Jan-10 02-Feb-10

02-Mar-10

06-Apr-10 04-May-10

01-Jun-10 06-Jul-10 03-Aug-10

01-Sep-10

15-Sep-10

05-Oct-1019-Oct-10

in t

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

in U

S$

Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price


Buttermilk Powder


BMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

03-Aug-10 01-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 05-Oct-10 19-Oct-10

in t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

in U

S$



Skimmed Milk Powder


SMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

02-Mar-10 06-Apr-10 04-May-10 01-Jun-10 06-Jul-10 03-Aug-10 01-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 05-Oct-10 19-Oct-10

in t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

in U

S$



Whole Milk Powder


WMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

02-Ju

l-08

05-A

ug-0

8

02-S

ep-0

8

01-O

ct-08

04-N

ov-0

8

02-D

ec-0

8

06-Ja

n-09

03-F

eb-0

9

03-M

ar-0

9

01-A

pr-0

9

12-M

ay-0

9

02-Ju

n-09

01-Ju

l-09

04-A

ug-0

9

01-S

ep-0

9

06-O

ct-09

03-N

ov-0

9

01-D

ec-0

9

05-Ja

n-10

02-F

eb-1

0

02-M

ar-1

0

06-A

pr-1

0

04-M

ay-1

0

01-Ju

n-10

06-Ju

l-10

03-A

ug-1

0

01-S

ep-1

0

15-S

ep-1

0

05-O

ct-10

19-O

ct-10

in t

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

4 250

4 500

4 750

in U

S$


milk market situation brussels, 21 october 2010. market situation, 21 october 20102 !!! data from...

Documents

ms communicationssource

milk powdersource

information available

usda market newssource

milk market situationbrussels

standardised milk

eu productions

feed purposessource