1 john ferree severe storms services leader noaa national weather service partner’s meeting, june...

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John Ferree Severe Storms Services LeaderNOAA National Weather Service

Partner’s Meeting, June 18, 2008

National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service

Storm-Based WarningsStorm-Based Warnings

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OutlineOutline

• Storm-Based Warnings Overview• Active Year - How are we doing? • Improving Severe Storms Services

US Weather BureauTornado Warnings

~1960

Storm-BasedWarnings

Oct. 1, 2007

19501950 19601960 2008200820002000199019901980198019701970

First Tornado Warning

1948

Polygonsadded1998

NOAA Weather Radio (NWR)

1975

NWR S.A.M.EFIPS Codes

1988

S.A.M.EStandard

2003

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County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology

Storm-Based WarningsImplemented October 1, 2007

Storm-Based WarningsImplemented October 1, 2007

Three simultaneous tornadoes within

line of severe thunderstorms

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

70% less area covered~600,000 fewer people warned

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Storm-Based WarningsHow are we doing so far?Storm-Based Warnings

How are we doing so far?

Lot of ways to measure success– Probability of Detection

(Accuracy)– Lead Time– False Alarm Rate – Reduction in False Alarm

Area– Qualitative Assessment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

POD LT FAR FAA

Prelim Goal

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County Area RatioPolygon size to County Size

County Area RatioPolygon size to County Size

Compliments of Daryl Herzmann at Iowa Environmental Mesonet

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2008 – A lot of tornados2008 – A lot of tornados

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2008 - Now at 110 tornado fatalitiesmost since 1998

2008 - Now at 110 tornado fatalitiesmost since 1998

• Super Tuesday Outbreak – Feb 5/6– 56 Fatalities, 391 Injuries, $0.5 Billion in damages

• Mother’s Day Outbreak - May 10/11– EF4 Picher, OK to Neosho MO

• Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak

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Storm-Based Warning IssuesStorm-Based Warning Issues

• Large polygons• Less than 1% of

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

• Large threat areas

• Warnings with too much text

• Related to large polygons

• Odd shaped polygons• Land/Marine interfaces• County Warning Area

boundaries

Tornado Warning Polygonand Velocity Couplet

Little Sioux CampgroundJune 11, 2008

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Large Polygons – Long TextLarge Polygons – Long Text

• Remove this includes the city of• Limit to 12 counties/parishes• New format (2+ yrs away)

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 211 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 207 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BULLUCK... OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF LUVERNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY.

THIS IS SERIOUS. NUMEROUS DAMAGE REPORTS CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE NWES OFFICE IN MOBILE ALABAMA. TAKE COVER NOW!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OBSCURING THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

DO NOT USE YOUR VEHICLE TO TRY TO OUTRUN AN APPROACHING TORNADO. ANY SIZE OF VEHICLE CAN BE EASILY BE TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADIC WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE STRUCTURE IS AVAILABLE... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR

SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

Too much text Too much text

• Takes time to compose and transmit

• Impact of Call-To-Action statements minimized by length

• Add Call-To-Action marker




* UNTIL 230 PM CST




THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE OBSCURING THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

DO NOT USE YOUR VEHICLE TO TRY TO OUTRUN AN APPROACHING TORNADO. ANY SIZE OF VEHICLE CAN BE EASILY BE TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADIC WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...LEAVE THE VEHICLE AND SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE STRUCTURE IS AVAILABLE... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW DEPRESSION AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. DO NOT USE HIGHWAY OVERPASSES FOR SHELTER. OVERPASSES DO NOT PROVIDE PROTECTION FROM TORNADIC WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR

SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.




* UNTIL 230 PM CST




THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FORSOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.




* UNTIL 230 PM CST



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. . .


THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FORSOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

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Odd shaped polygonsOdd shaped polygons

• Land/Marine boundary

• County Warning Area Boundary

• Editing out small portions of counties

• Errors – No QC

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Two other issues of interestTwo other issues of interest

• Use of “Tornado Emergency” headline

• Watch extensions in time and area

Vehicle in Picher OklahomaMay 10, 2008

Hook Echo – Super Resolution WSR-88DTwo TornadoesMay 26, 2008

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Tornado EmergencyTornado Emergency

• First used on May 3, 1999– Moore / Oklahoma City F5

• Used ~ 6 times/year since 1999

• No policyIn exceedingly rare situations, when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a tornado is imminent or ongoing, the forecaster may insert the headline "...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR [GEOGRAPHIC AREA]...". Additionally, in such a situation, this headline should only be used when reliable sources confirm a tornado, or there is clear radar evidence of the existence of a damaging tornado such as the observation of debris.

In exceedingly rare situations, when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a tornado is imminent or ongoing, the forecaster may insert the headline "...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR [GEOGRAPHIC AREA]...". Additionally, in such a situation, this headline should only be used when reliable sources confirm a tornado, or there is clear radar evidence of the existence of a damaging tornado such as the observation of debris.

Proposed Wording for NWSI 10-511

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Watch extensions in time and areaWatch extensions in time and area

• Complex system– Extensions in time must be coordinated

• One watch• All counties not

cancelled are extended

– Extensions in areaonly available toWFO’s alreadyin the watch

• Forecaster Training Tornado between Parkersburg and New Hartford at 5:05 pm. Photo taken by NWS Des Moines

Meteorologist Rod Donavon

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Status of Storm Based WarningsStatus of Storm Based Warnings

• Performance exceeding expectations– A very active year

• Several issues– Large Warnings– Too Much Text– Odd Shaped Polygons

• Policy for “Tornado Emergency”

• Watch-By-County issues– Extensions in time– Extensions in area

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Contact InformationContact Information

[email protected]

John Ferree120 David L. Boren Blvd.Suite 2312Norman, OK 73072

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Proposed Dissemination WorkshopProposed Dissemination Workshop

• Goal– Partner input on new

warning formats• CAP, Grid, GIS, others

• When– 1PM on Nov. 5, 2008

through 5PM on Nov. 6. 2008

• Where– Norman, OK– Silver Spring, MD– Other?

1 john ferree severe storms services leader noaa national weather service partner’s meeting, june...

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