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EPRI Update

Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D.Vice President, Environment & Renewables

Renewable Energy Council

June 30, 2010

2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our History

• Founded by and for the electricity industry in 1973

• Independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research

• Collaborative resource for the electricity sector

• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC; Knoxville, TN– Laboratories in Knoxville,

Charlotte and Lenox, MA Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder


Our Reputation

“I insisted that we give the whole story, the pros, the cons, the black and the white. EPRI reports and EPRI results became technologically accepted in the whole community – the environmental community, public community, scientific community… as being credible work that people could have confidence in. And that credibility has to be maintained. This is a philosophic creed that goes right into the soul of EPRI and it must never get lost.”Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder

“I insisted that we give the whole story, the pros, the cons, the black and the white. EPRI reports and EPRI results became technologically accepted in the whole community – the environmental community, public community, scientific community… as being credible work that people could have confidence in. And that credibility has to be maintained. This is a philosophic creed that goes right into the soul of EPRI and it must never get lost.”Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder


Our Members

• 450+ participants in more than 40 countries

• EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States

• International funding of more than 18% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations


116 119 126 133 134 119 127

40 44 44 49 4741 39

6776

8993 83

72 65

6269

7985

82

57 65

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2006 Act 2007 Act 2008 Act 2009 Act 2010 Plan Q1 2009 Q1 2010

Nuclear Environment Generation PDU

$285$308

$338

$296$289

$360 $346

Our Funding


2009-2010 Funding Projections & Status

2009 CPI 2010 Projection/Status

Stimulus Funding Dependent upon Prime Negotiations

$7M

2009 Actual

DemoPrepays

$190M

$124M

$21M

$21M SUPP TC Policy Change

$3M $12M

SUPP Reduced Operating Budgets

$8M

$201M $201M

$136M$121M

Stimulus

$14M

$10M

$2M

$335M

$360M$346M

STIM

DEMO

SUPP

MEM

LEGEND

+10%

+5%$203M

$103M

$14M

$320M

+2M

$372M

+$52MTo Go

© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Our Management Structure

NeilWilmshurst

VPNuclear

Steve SpeckerPresident & CEO

James L. TurnerChairman,

Board of Directors

This management structure is as of April 6, 2010

Hank CourtrightSVP, Member &

External Relations

Norma FormanekSVP, Administration& General Counsel

Mike HowardSVPR&D

SteveYamamoto

VP, Treasurer& CFO

DennisMurphy

VPMarketing &

Info. Technology

RobChapman

VP Technical AdvisoryServices

ArshadMansoor

VPPower Delivery

& Utilization

BryanHannegan

VPEnvironment &

Renewable Energy

RosaYang

VPInnovation

SalCasente

VPLegal

CarolynShockley

VPGeneration


Making Renewable Energy Work

• Reduce Cost of Generation Technology Options

• Integrate Variable Generation with Transmission and Distribution

• Optimize with Energy Storage and the Smart Grid

• Understand and Minimize Environmental Impacts

More affordable, reliable and sustainable


IGCC

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0 10 20 30 40 50

The Cost Challenge

Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh

Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

All costs are in December 2008 $

PC

Nuclear ($4860/kW)

Wind (35% CF)

Biomass

No investment or production tax credits are assumed for any technology.

Solar thermal LCOE ranges between $225-$290/MWh

Rev. October 2009

NGCC ($5-8/MMBtu)

Renewables “out of the money” without incentives

90% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1019539


The Integration Challenge

High Levels of Variable Wind and Solar PV Will Present an Operating Challenge!


• Understanding the interactions

– Characterizing the renewable resource

– Interactions with species and habitat

– Life cycle assessment

– Human health and safety

• Advancing improved approaches

– Siting methodologies

– Technology and operational improvements

– Mitigation strategies

• Large scale impacts and limitations

– Assess the impacts of “harvesting” renewables at large scales

The Environmental Challenge


EPRI’s Expanding Renewables Portfolio

Energy StorageEnergy Storage

SolarSolar

WindWind

GeothermalGeothermal

BiomassBiomass

Water PowerWater Power

TransmissionTransmissionIntegrationIntegration

DistributionDistributionIntegrationIntegration

TransmissionTransmissionIntegrationIntegration

DistributionDistributionIntegrationIntegration

RenewablesRenewables


RenewablesRenewables


2008 2009 2010

New for 2011: Environmental Aspects

Energy StorageEnergy StorageEnergy StorageEnergy Storage


EPRI Renewables Funding

0

2

4

6

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18

20

2007 2008 2009 2010Goal

2010 YTD

$ m

illio

n

Funnel

Demos

Env

D Int

L Int

Storg

Water

Gen3.3 3.4

2.0

5.00.6

3.6

3.3 3.3

5.6

7.7

12.1

15.0

1.51.2

1.70.7

4.0

0.90.7

1.7

1.20.51.8

5.0

2.0

2.8

3.9

1.60.8

17.6


Broadening Our Reach …

• NREL – EPRI “Partnership Agreement”

– Identified 29 areas for potential collaboration

– Joint projects, funding opportunities, data exchange, use of facilities

• ACORE Electric Services Committee

– Hannegan Co-Chair starting 2H 2010

– Opportunity to interact with vendors, NGOs

• Utility Wind Integration Group

– Brooks ex-officio member of UWIG Board

– Coordinating on several wind/solar projects


Recent EPRI Activities

• Mid-May: EPRI/SEPA/NREL Solar Meetings held jointly in Denver

• 1st Week in June: International PDU Council Meeting in Madrid

– Planning, forecasting, and operations issues related to high-penetration wind integration in Spain

– Toured REE Control Centre for Renewable Energies

• 2nd Week in June: International Renewable Generation Conference

– Hosted by E.ON at Ratcliffe-on-Soar Training Center

– Outlined future R&D needs for all aspects

• 3rd Week in June: Renewable Energy in Alaska Conference

– “Dance Partners: Renewables and the Smart Grid”


Renewable Energy Council

• Cross-cutting advisory council to help guide EPRI’s research in renewable energy

• Provide oversight to entire renewable energy portfolio

• Diverse membership (VP level or above)– Fossil Ops– T&D/Grid Ops– Environmental Compliance– Renewables Strategy

• Upcoming Schedule– TODAY: Biomass– December 2010: Wind Integration– Other topics via webcast


What are some key results from EPRI’s recent workon renewable energy?


Utility-Scale Wind Evaluation (1021319)

• Locations:

– Base Case– California– Texas– Michigan– New York– Offshore NY

• Conceptual design, performance, capitaland O&M cost, levelized COE

Key ResultEngineering/Economic Evaluations


Current Wind Project Cost and Performance

Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

BaseCase

100 MW

California100 MW

Texas 200 MW

Michigan150 MW

New York50 MW

NYOffshore201.6 MW

$/MWhAnnual Capacity Factor

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

BaseCase

100 MW

California100 MW

Texas 200 MW

Michigan150 MW

New York50 MW

NYOffshore201.6 MW

With 30% Investment Tax Credit


Key ResultWind Turbine - Advanced Nondestructive Evaluation

• Cost-effective inspection ofwind turbine components duringfabrication and in-service

• Laser shearography– Tested in collaboration with

NREL and Sandia– Initial results very favorable

• Baseline testing– Detected delamination near trailing edge

root (10 x 25 cm) – Imaged trailing edge and spar web bond– Detection of internally bonded features


Key ResultEngineering/Economic Evaluations

Central Station PV Evaluation (1021320)

• 6 PV Technologies:

– Fixed Flat Plate a-Si

– Fixed Flat Plate CdTe

– Fixed Flat Plate c-Si

– 1-Axis Tracking c-Si

– Tilted 1-Axis Tracking c-Si

– 2-Axis Tracking CPV

• Four Locations:– Las Vegas, NV– Alamosa, CO– Jacksonville, FL– Columbus, OH


Current Solar PV Cost and Performance

Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Fixed a-Si Fixed CdTe Fixed c-Si 1-Axis c-SI Tilted 1-Axis c-Si 2-Axis CPV

PV Technology

Las Vegas, NV Alamosa, CO Jacksonville, FL Columbus, OH

With 30% Investment Tax Credit

$/MWh


Key Result Distributed PV Monitoring at Alabama Power

• 4 different arrays (1.1 kW each)

• Side-by-side performance comparison

• System integration, evaluation using micro-inverters on each panel

• Increased understanding of PV operations in southeast climate

Panel Type(Silicon)

Panel CostJune ‘09

($/W)

Panel Cost May ‘10

($/W)

Polycrystalline $ 3.54 $ 2.42

Monocrystalline $ 3.50 $ 2.74

Thin film (flexible) $ 4.22 $ 3.54

Heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer

$ 4.60 $ 4.46

as purchased today


Groundbreaking for the TVA-EPRI Solar-Assisted EV Charging Station in Knoxville

Kim Greene, TVA Mike Howard Anda Ray, TVA


Prism 2.0 Project Using Realistic Meteorology, Resource Supply, and Turbine Technology

•5,354 sites picked from 200m grid national survey

– Exclusion areas

– 100 MW site minimum

– Distance to grid

– Terrain/wake effects

•12 year hourly simulation based on 1997‐2008 meteorology for

– 80m hub 1.5 MW turbine

– Min/Max energy density

– Power curves

Wind Resource Data

Excluded Areas


Example Analysis Using New Wind Data for NW-Central Region

• State hourly load data for 2007 from Energy Velocity

• Hourly loads and wind output synchronized so driven by same 2007 meteorology

• Add 50 GW new installed wind capacity within region

• Rank sites by capacity factor, build best sites first

NW‐Central


‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

MW

NWC Time Series from 2/28/07 to 3/7/07 w 50 GW Added

Wind

NWC Load

New Wind Data Captures Variability of Resource

Max for year near the 50 GW of capacity Minimum < 5 GW


‐

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

MW

NWC Time Series from 8/9/07 to 8/16/07 w 50 GW Added

Wind

NWC Load

Anti-correlation of Wind with Load Creates Ramping Issues

The morning up-ramp

The evening down-ramp


New Model Allows Dynamic Interplay Between Wind Resources and Transmission

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‐ 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

New Transm

ission (G

W)

Cost of Electricity ($/M

Wh)

Wind Generation (TWh)

Delivered Wind Supply Cost w No New Transmission

Generation Cost

Delivered Cost

X trans only

New Transmission (GW)

EPRI – TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curve

What is required at < $100/MWh?• 350 GW of new turbines

~$785 billion230,000 turbines

• 25 new EHV transmission lines~$ 50 billion17,000 line miles


Frequency of Coal Ramping in NW-Central Shows Challenge for Operators

‐25

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

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25

‐25

‐20

‐15

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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Reference

+ 10 GW wind

+ 100 GW wind

+ 50 GW windHourly Change in Dispatch (GW)

Hours of Year

2007 Total Installed Coal Capacity = 36 GW

2007 Average CF = 73%


• Who: 170+ “C” Level” Executives and key stakeholders and influencers from the global Energy Industry / Electricity Sector

• What: Leadership forum combining outside guest speakers, members and EPRI insights on:

• Prism 2.0…the next generation• The changing energy landscape• Renewables, coal, natural gas, etc.• Policy implications

• When: August 2-3, 2010

• Where: The Four Seasons Hotel, Chicago, IL

• Why: Provide our members and guests the opportunity to learn, share views and discuss critical industry issues

The “5 Ws”…

Summer Seminar 2010 … “Renewing Our Future”


Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

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