1 climate “sensitivity” and impact on agriculture in the sahel abdoulaye sarr aiacc- af20...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Climate “Sensitivity” and Impact on Agriculture In The Sahel
Abdoulaye SARR AIACC- AF20 Johannesburg S.A March 10-14, 2003
Problem? Climate Circulation Anomalies Long and Frequent dry spells Critical Agricultural Campain Below normal rainfall Negative Impact on Production
Socio-economic Consequences
Climate Caracteristics Long drought 1968- 1987
Improvement Since 1988 - With irregular occurrence of
dry years- High Spatial Variability
Review of Documented Dynamical Factors Influencing Rainfall in Sahel:
Anomalous warm SST in the tropical atlantic anomalous atmospheric circulation in the
tropics Most consistently demonstrated difference
between wet and dry years in the Sahel is the strength of the AEJ and its location in latitude (Farther N in Wet Years).
The TEJ may also play an important role :dry years (weak TEJ), Wet years (strong TEJ).
Authors among Many others
( Kidson 1977; Tanaka 1975; Kanamitsu and
Krishnamurti 1978; Lamb, 1978 a,b;Nevell and Kidson 1979, 1984; Dennet 1985; Folland 1986; Fontaine and Janicot 1992; Fontaine 1995, Jenkins, 1998; Grist and
Nicholson, 2001)