1Challenge the future

Novel load forecasting technique for three time-horizons in electric power system

Swasti R. Khuntia

2Challenge the future

Thesis Factsheet

• Title of thesis: Novel load forecasting technique for three time-horizons in electric power system

• Name of student: Swasti R. Khuntia• Start Date / End Date: 10/04/2014 – 09/04/2018

(Expected)• Departments involved: Electrical Sustainable Energy

(formal) and Applied Probability (informal)• Supervisor(s): Dr. –Ing. Jose L. Rueda• Promotor(s): Prof. Mart A. M. M. van der Meijden• Companies and funding agencies involved: EU FP7 Project

comprising of 20 partners (8 industries and 12 universities)

• Associated Project Title: GARPUR (Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty modelling and through probabilistic Risk assessment) [www.garpur-project.eu]

3Challenge the future

Thesis content

• Motivation• European power system reliability management

surviving on ‘N-1’ criterion• Time to upgrade the reliability criterion• Demand-side uncertainty• Intermittent energy sources• Part of the project involved, it aims at socio-economic

benefits

• Research question• “Designing, developing, assessing, and evaluating new

reliability criteria”• My contribution: Load forecast model for three time-

horizons using novel data mining technique

4Challenge the future

Thesis content

• Leader: T5.2 and T6.2• Contributor:

• T2.3, T2.4• T4.2, T4.3• T5.1, T5.3, T5.4• T6.3, T6.4• T7.2, T7.3• T9.1

5Challenge the future

Thesis challenge

• Difficulty in modeling for three time-horizons• Data uncertainty• Upgrading the existing reliability criterion• Driving factor: Project implementation in pan-

European level in next decade

6Challenge the future

Methodology

• Literature study on “Understanding the three time-horizons” in electrical transmission system

• Literature study on “Asset management in electrical transmission system”

• Literature study on “Existing methodology used in participating TSOs” [continuing]

• Power flow study on Bayesian Network• One of the most efficient probabilistic graphical models to

represent uncertainty and inferences thereof

• Nothing much done in load forecast area for three time-horizons

• Trying to assess the usability and planning to design a “hybrid”

model

7Challenge the future

Project Plan

Literature

WP5, 6

Test-case study

Writing Thesis

Implementation/Validation

04/2014 2015 2016 2017 04/2018

8Challenge the future