106

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

���������� ��

������������������ ����������� !"#$��%�

��&'�()�*+,-.$

/0$1234567�$��

89:���� ;<� =

;<,-.� >?@

ABCD

2011E2F3GHIJKLM=

National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

NARO is the largest organization in Japan that conducts comprehensive research and development on food, agriculture and rural communities.

Forecast of the Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture and the Development of

Adaptive Technologies

Toshihiko SugiuraResearch Team for Effects of Global Warming

on Fruit Trees, National Institute of Fruit Tree Science, National Agriculture

and Food Research Organization

February 3, 2011 at Mita Common Conference Hall

107

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

N !$O8PQRF:$STU,8UVWX4YZ[:

\]^_

\]^`

\`^_

`^`

`^_

]^`

]^_

a^`

]b`` ]ba` ]bc` ]bP` ]bR` a```

U,$SEd8e: 2010E

SE+1.6�

fg

81:hi?jklmUn$12�o)�pqr82:stu v�sqwxyr83:/z{%$|}~?~�84:*+,-.$12�

2010E�O86Q8F:

,-.

m,$�� m���

Average temperature of Japanese summer (June to August) (Data of the Japan Meteorological Agency)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Tem

p. d

iffer

ence

from

nor

mal

yea

r (�C

)

2010

Normal year + 1.6�C

Causes(1) Was not influenced by the high pressure

system on the Sea of Okhotsk.(2) The westerlies blew in higher latitude.(3) El Nino of last spring(4) Global warming?

Summer of 20108June to August)

Warming

Higher frequency of warmer years

108

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

��,-.�������p

��,-.$12���812��:

�����$��867�:

0. How warming is interpreted.

1. Knowing the impact of warming (impact assessment)

2. Development of Countermeasure technologies (adaptive technologies)

109

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

4

,-.$12����r�����

` ]` a` �` c`

��

��

#�

;<

'��� 

¡�¢£

¤¥

c¦

,-. §¨5©��ª©��ª�����$p8��«¬ ­2009.9:

,-.$12$®¯°±82003²2005:47����$���³� �� �V

,-.$12���´ µ¶����

4

Number of prefectures that reported the impact of warming

0 10 20 30 40Paddy rice

Wheat and barley

Soybeans

Fruit trees

Vegetables and flowers

Feed crops

Livestock

47

“What will happen to agriculture and food if warming advances” (Gijutu-Hyoron Co., Ltd.: September 2009)

Current situation surveys on warming impacts (2003, 2005)Subjects: Agricultural research institutes in 47 prefectures

Knowing the impact of warming: Comprehensive knowledge

110

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

5

·¸��12¹

8Gº)²»¼²½¾¿:

�� ������ � ��� ������ �������

���� !�

"# $�����%&���'() *+,�-.

/0 123456789 :;<= ����

>?@'( �4ABCDEF4C��GH IJKLMNO<P-

QRST �U�VW 1234567��H XYZ[\

]^ST�_` abcdefghi@jkOlmn&o

pq rstuvwxyz{H

|k�� }~O���²ÀÁ�ÂÃIJ¡�Å�ÂÃÄ

,-.$12���´ µ¶����

���

5

Examples of effects

Knowing the impact of warming: Comprehensive knowledge

���

111

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

`]`

a`�`c`_`

P`¦`R`b`]``

a``` a``] a``a a``� a``c a``_ a``P a``¦ a``R

Æ!$�ÇÈÉÊ�1005�r5 $7�ST

ËÌ$�ÇÈÉÊ$Í.

����������q��

�

�^_

c

c^_

_

]bR_ ]bb` ]bb_ a``` a``_

ÎÏ8ÐÑ:ÒÓÔ8]]F]GÎÕ?>Ö?×Y:

��ØÙÚÛÜ;ÝÞ?ß8àá��â:

ãäåæ

ÎÕ?>Ö?×�

,-.$12���´ çèéê

0102030405060708090

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Average of seven prefectures with the rate for the whole nation being 100

Changes in the 1st-grade rice rate in Kyushu

Statistical Yearbook of Food (MAFF)

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Surface color of persimmon (Fuyu)(Color chart values on November 1)

Results of the entrusted projects of MAFF (Fukuoka Agricultural Research Center)

White immature grains

Color chart�

Knowing the impact of warming: Statistical analysis

112

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

,-.$12���´ ëì����

íîUVï$ðK

,�ñò>Öóô?

FACE8�õö#UCO2÷ø:ëì

Knowing the impact of warming: Know from experiments

Use of phytotron

Temperature gradient chamber

Free-air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment

113

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

�������� � ������

�� 2060��

0 5 15������

��� �!23��"#�$%&'(�����)*+5���,27.2�-15���,30.0�+

./01�$%&2��8��

�� 2060��

34 (15-18�)

567��48

56���48

�9:;<=>2004-?@ABCD�

E���E F�34�GH

�IJ(>2006-KLM$ABN�

��� �56OP

Knowing the impact of warming: Simulation

Now 2060s

0 5 15Reduction rate (%)

Meat production reduction rates compared with the production when the monthly average temperature was 23�C. 5% reduction – 27.2�C, 15% reduction – 30.0�C.

Changes in broiler meat production

(August)

Now 2060s

Suitable area (15-18�C)

Higher temperature areaLower temperature area

(Sugiura and Yokozawa 2004, Journal of the Japanese Society for Horticultural Science)

Movement of suitable producing areas of

citrus unshiu

Yamazaki et al. 2006, Animal science Journal)

Estimated from annual average temperature

114

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

99

���$��´ ,��Äù�

úûü$ýþ8¢���:²�û����j�$�

�� ü$6�.

����Z��78��:

99

Development of countermeasure technologies: Lowering temperature

Change of seeding period (selection of cropping type)Bolting of Komatsuna

Optimization of cultivation season

Water management (deep water)

115

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

<�p�$��

����

���$��´ ,��Äù�

Water sprinkling from tree top

Mist treatment

Development of countermeasure technologies: Lowering temperature

116

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

�}h?Úó�������$ðK

Þó�$Gº)

���$��´ ,��Äù�

Greenhouse with an openable roofUse of shading materials

“Sunburn” of apple

Development of countermeasure technologies: Lowering temperature

117

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

���$��´ m, !$".�

�#$$6�.8��:�%¢[8��²;<:�&'$ðK8((²Î)>Ö:�*£°+,8-Îó²�Ý:�./�$m¡�8¤¥:

Ý0�-1�� 82�3#: Ã,45!$6&'

Development of countermeasure technologies: High-temperature tolerance enhancing technologies

�Optimization of fertilizer application (paddy rice)�Soil Improvement (paddy rice, fruit trees)�Use of rootstocks (peaches, pumpkins)�Plant regulators (mandarins, pears)�Highly nutritious feed (livestock)

Cyanamide treatment (Utsunomiya University) Chilling requiring, long rootstocks

118

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

7¯8¼89:k;?ó:

���$��´ m, !$".�

�óÝ<�-Îó$»¼

�}1��

Girdling (Aki queen)

Development of countermeasure technologies: High-temperature tolerance enhancing technologies

Fruit puffing of citrus unshiu

Multi-drip cultivation system)

119

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

���$��´ ,-.�7�û$��

�m,Ä%$ãäåÈ�Á =��û©�>{�²>�? Çª�-@%�AB C��[�D�©;E;FG;>ª�HIJ;!���»¼$=�ÎóÏj�û©r{½ª©K5pª�LÔ�MyrÞó��û�NO!�My�×?}�O�k©�ÝP|ª

,�Ú?}�ðK�r��$Qû R~}����ðK�r��$Qû

HIJ;!��

Development of countermeasure technologies: Development of crops that can be grown in warmer climate

�Varieties in which white immature grains occur less at high temperature : Nikomaru, Koshiibuki, etc.�Variety in which ear emergence does not occur too early in warm winter: Iwainodaichi�Parthenocarpic eggplants�Citrus varieties in which fruit puffing occur less: Tamami, Setoka�Apple varieties with good colorability�Summer-hardy tall fescue: Ushibue

Breeding of paddy rice using heated swimming pool Breeding of paddy rice using plastic greenhouses

Parthenocarpic eggplant

120

Toshihiko Sugiura ／ 杉浦　俊彦

-Îó��8ST�:

���$��´ ¢£UV

0W(X��8HY�:

Mandarin cultivation(Niigata Prefecture)

Development of countermeasure technologies: Crop change

Atemoya cultivation(Mie Prefecture)