STATUS OF GLOBAL ACTIVITIES, OVERALL TIMETABLE AND RISKS

3rd Meeting of the ICP Technical Advisory Group

May 2-3, 2019, Paris, France

The Current ICP Landscape

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Recent Wins

� Permanent program & permanent ICP Global Office at the World Bank

� 2017 cycle underway –late regions catching up

� Increased country buy-in for the 3-year cycle/ continuous program –2020 cycle

� Increase in domestic funding – less reliance on country grants

� Increase in uses

Outstanding Challenges

� Quality of results, as perceived by users

� Poverty uses – Atkinson Report interpretation

� Country buy-in challenges – connecting with policymakers

� Securing sustainable funding for the permanent program

ICP 2017 Cycle Outputs

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2017 Results

Revised 2011

Results

Interpolate between 2011

and 2017 results

Incorporate interim regional

results

Global PPP Time Series for 2011-2017

ICP 2017 Status Overview

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� 176 countries participating

� Countries expected to participate at the level of GDP

Country Participation

� Household consumption (HHC) data from 176 countries

� Significant increase in non-HHC data submission; data gaps still exist

Data Submissions

� Regional data validation underway

� Global HHC data validation launched in September 2018

� Global non-HHC data validation launched in February 2019

Quality Assurance

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ICP 2017 Data Submission (1)

Region 1 HHC HOU-R HOU-V EDU

AFR [50] 50 45 42 49

ASI [22] 22 22 19 22

CIS [8] 8 − − −

LAC [36] 36 21 15 23

WAS [12] 12 12 10 12

EUO [49] 49 31 3 24 3 − 3

SP [3] 2 3 1 3 1

1 Total number of participating countries in brackets2 Special Participation: Iran, Georgia and Ukraine 3 EUO are not expected to submit data for all countries for housing, but rather a subset to allow for linking, and they

are not expected to submit data for private education.

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ICP 2017 Data Submission (2)

Region 1 GOV MEQ CON EXP 4 PPP 4

AFR [50] 48 50 50 50 −

ASI [22] 22 22 22 21 22

CIS [8] − 8 − − −

LAC [36] 19 25 21 12 −

WAS [12] 12 12 12 12 −

EUO [49] 48 49 10 3 47 47

SP [3] 2 2 3 3 2 2

1 Total number of participating countries in brackets 2 Special Participation: Iran, Georgia and Ukraine 3 EUO are not expected to submit data for all countries for construction, but rather a subset to allow for linking4 Basic heading level

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ICP 2011 Revised Data Submission

Region 1 PRICES EXP 3 PPP 3

AFR [50] − 50 −

ASI [22] − 22 −

CIS [8] − 8 −

LAC [36] − 25 −

WAS [12] − 12 −

EUO [49] − 47 47

SP [3] 2 − − −

1 Total number of participating countries in brackets 2 Special Participation: Iran, Georgia and Ukraine 3 Basic heading level

Risks to the ICP 2017 Results

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Completeness Risks� Submission of non-household data varies between countries in

certain regions; are all countries participating at GDP level?

Quality Risks� Data quality still needs improvement

� Delays in data submission limit the time for global data validation, especially for non-household data

� Quality of PPP time series and comparability over time still to be assessed

Timeliness Risks� Backcasting and annualizing, regional and global validation,

and results calculation and assessment require time

Mitigation and Quality Assurance Activities

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ICP Region

Regional/ Sub-Regional Workshops

Country Workshops/

TA Missions

Nov 2018 - Apr 2019

PlannedMay-Dec 2019

Nov 2018 - Apr 2019

PlannedMay-Dec 2019

Africa 1 8 12

Asia 2 3

CIS 1 1 1 1

LAC 1 4 5 5

Western Asia 4 2 1

Eurostat-OECD 2 3

Dual participation1 1

Sp. participation2 5

1 Egypt, Morocco and Sudan; 2 Iran, Georgia and Ukraine

Technical Challenges (1)

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Category-specific issues

� Linking education, health and construction (w/Eurostat-OECD)

� Linking housing (w/TF on housing)

� Analytical categories to be produced (goods vs. services)

Country-specific issues

� Countries changing regions between 2011 and 2017 (Colombia, Costa Rica)

� Countries with XR issues (Argentina, Egypt, Sudan, etc.)

� Countries participating in either 2011 or 2017 but with no data for time series (Argentina, Venezuela, Yemen, etc.)

� Countries participating in either 2011 or 2017 but with data for time series (Macau - impute & interpolate or extrapolate or impute every year?)

Technical Challenges (2)

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2011 revisions

� Countries with major national accounts revisions (Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Zimbabwe, etc.)

� Countries with major population revisions (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone, etc.)

� Revisions of Russia’s expenditures, housing in particular, could impact 2011 results for all CIS countries

Results interpretation

� Explaining PPP changes over time

� Explaining the PPP-implied relative inflation vs. the CPI-implied relative inflation [quality and comparability of CPI data?]

Activity2019 2020

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Phase I

4th GB Meeting/UNSC

Data Submission

Data Validation

HHC Prelim Calculation

7th IACG Meeting

3rd TAG Meeting

Phase II

Data Submission

Data Validation

GDP Prelim Calculation

8th IACG Meeting

4th TAG Meeting

5th GB Meeting

Phase III

Final Regional PPPs

Final Global Calculation

Phase IV

TAG Final Results Review

Report Finalization

6th GB Meeting/UNSC

Official Release

Proposed Road Map to Publication of Results

12Acronyms: Governing Board (GB), Inter-Agency Coordination Group (IACG), Technical Advisory Group (TAG)

Research Agenda Items (1)

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Research Agenda Items Progress

1. Compilation of PPP Time Series and the Rolling Survey Approach� Component 1. Moving Towards Rolling Price

SurveysTF03 - Work underway (2017-2019)

� Component 2. Linking Interim Regional Updates into a Global Comparison

TF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

� Component 3. Building PPP Time Series for the Interim Period

TF01/TT01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

2. PPPs and Real Expenditures for Dwelling ServicesTF02 - Work underway (2017-2019)

3. Productivity Adjustment for Government and Construction Labor

TF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

4. Fine Tuning Global Linking ProceduresTF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

5. Quality and Reliability of PPPs

� Component 1. Quality of data and results TAG (2019-2020)

� Component 2. Reliability Measures for PPPs TF06 (2020-2021)

Research Agenda Items (2)

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Research Agenda Items Progress

6. Uses of PPPs for National and International Policy Making

TF04 - TF to be set up (2019-2020)

7. CPI-ICP Synergies and Sub-National PPPsTF03 - Work underway (2017-2019)

8. PPPs for Exports and Imports TF08 (2020-2021)

9. PPPs for Construction TF10 (2020-2021)

10. PPPs for Health and Education TF09 (2020-2021)

11. ICP PPPs and Global Poverty Measurement – Post Atkinson Commission

TF05 - TF to be set up (2018-2020)

12. Exploring Innovations in Technology and Data Sources for PPP Measurement

TF07 (2020-2021)

13. Accounting for Product Quality Differences in PPP Measurement

TBD

Quality of Data and Results

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� The Governing Board stressed the need to ensure the reliability and usability of the ICP results, and asked the ICP TAG to provide an assessment of the quality of the results, once available.

� The Board approved a publication criteria that includes:

� quality and reliability of the expenditures and PPPs for the aggregate to publish

� potential differences in approaches/classifications across regions that could impact the aggregate to publish

� the relevance of the aggregate to users

� The IACG is enhancing the long-standing quality assessment methods for input data and PPPs with additional checks and visualizations; more thought needs to be dedicated to assessing the plausibility of ICP results at various levels of aggregation.

PPPs and Poverty Measurement

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� May 2018 meeting – ICP TAG and the World Bank’s Global Poverty Working Group (GPWG).

� Immediate objective is to assess the impact of 2017 ICP PPPs on global poverty measures.

� Can 2017 PPPs be used without updating the International Poverty Line of $1.90/day?

� Terms of reference for a joint ICP-GPWG task force underway.

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Uses of PPPs (1)

Extensive research was conducted on the use of PPPs by international, regional and national agencies, academia and research centers, and the media.

Over 400 uses of PPP data in 2018 curated for the ICP website.

But frequent mentions of PPPs (~400 a month) indicate wider use of the data.

Uses of PPPs (2)

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� The Global Office is liaising with data custodians across multi-lateral agencies on the update of their socio-economic and development indicators with new ICP data.

� The Global Office is working with new users on the applications of PPPs in:

� The Wealth of Nations

� Worldwide Bureaucracy Indicators

� Nutrition and food project with IFPRI/Tufts

� The proposal is to produce a visual compendium of uses in late 2020. This compendium could catalyze further discussion on the use and impact of PPP data.

Uses of PPPs – Recent examples (1)

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GDP (PPP) growth a key driver of global CO2 emissions.

Poverty thresholds using PPPs help examine all aspects of deprivation.

PPPs used in monitoring progress on SDGs and growth in region.

Exports, learning and stunting examined using GDP (PPP) per capita.

Uses of PPPs – Recent examples (2)

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As poverty (<$1.90 PPP) falls, access to electricity increases.

Economic well-being (PPP) in East Asia assessed against internet use and other indicators.

Local currency converted into 2011 PPP $ to compare public service wage bills in post conflict countries.

Supermarket share of food sales smaller where GDP per capita (PPP) is low.

ICP Task Force Timetable (1)

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Activity2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ICP Task Forces

TF1. PPP Compilation and Computation.

- Linking interim regional updates R R F

- Building interim PPP time series Preliminary research R R F

- Fine tuning global linking procedures R R F

- Productivity adjustment R R F

TF2. Housing. PPPs and real expenditures

for dwelling servicesR R F

TF3. Country Operational Guidelines and Procedures.

- Moving towards rolling price surveys R R F

- CPI-ICP synergies Preliminary research R R F

- Sub-national PPPs Preliminary research R R F

Acronyms: Report to TAG (R); Final output (F)

ICP Task Force Timetable (2)

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Activity2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ICP Task Forces

TF4. PPP Uses. Uses of PPPs and ICP data for

policy makingPreliminary research R F

TF5. PPPs and Poverty Measurement. ICP PPPs

and global poverty measurement Preliminary research R F

TF6. Quality and Reliability.

- Quality of data F

- Reliability measures for PPPs Preliminary research R F

TF7. New Data Sources. Exploring innovations in

technology and data sourcesPreliminary research R F

TF8. Exports and Imports. PPPs for exports and

importsR F

TF9. Non-Market Services. PPPs for health and

educationR F

TF10. Construction. PPPs for construction R F

Acronyms: Report to TAG (R); Final output (F)

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Outreach and Knowledge Activities (1)

� Fifty Years of the ICP: Achievement and Moving Forward,

Beijing, October 2018

� Statistical Commission for Africa resolution,

Addis Ababa, October 2018

� World Bank Data Day 2019,

Washington DC, February 2019

� UN-ESCWA Statistical Committee meeting,

Beirut, January 2019

� Ongoing ICP newsletter [country profiles] and ICP Blogs

� PPP eLearning: 426 enrolled trainees since launch; used in global, regional and national training activities

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Outreach and Knowledge Activities (2)

Forthcoming

� International Comparisons Conference,

Groningen, May 2019

� PPP/CPI Synergies, Ottawa Group meeting,

Rio de Janeiro, May 2019

� High-Level Conference on Better Data for Better Policies,

Bishkek, May 2019

� Session on PPP-based comparisons, IARIW special conference,

Moscow, September 2019

THANK YOU

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