icp 2017 cycle: progress report - world...

2nd Meeting of the ICP Technical Advisory Group

May 23, 2018

Washington, DC

ICP 2017 CYCLE: PROGRESS REPORT

Outline

� Objectives, Governance and Capacity Building

� Data Collection and Submission

� Research Agenda

� Outstanding Risks And Mitigation Plan

� Publication And Data Access

� Knowledge, Outreach and Uses

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OBJECTIVES, GOVERNANCE

AND CAPACITY BUILDING

ICP 2017 Cycle Objectives

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� Produce 2017 PPPs and results

� Produce a PPP time series for 2011-2017 [bridging

2011 and 2017 results]

� Incorporate regional interim updates into the PPP

time series, where possible

� Gradually move into a rolling survey approach to

produce more frequent and regular PPP estimates

ICP Governance Framework

GIA = Global Implementing Agency, RIA = Regional Implementing Agency, NIA = National Implementing Agency

United Nations Statistical Commission Sessions

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48TH SESSION, NEW YORK, MARCH 7-10, 2017

� Urged participating countries to integrate ICP activities within their regular

work program to ensure a sustainable and a truly permanent program

� Stressed the need for promoting the use of ICP data for policy making

49TH SESSION, NEW YORK, MARCH 6-9, 2018

� Countries indicated their commitment to the ICP, the usefulness of the

program, and the importance of integrating ICP surveys into the regular

work programs in countries.

Governance and Coordination Meetings (1)

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Governing Board:

1st Meeting, Washington, November 15, 2016

� Endorsed the new ICP Governance Framework, established the ICP

2nd Meeting, Washington, September 15, 2017

� Reviewed progress in the implementation of ICP 2017 cycle and overall risks,

discussed data access, and approved ICP Research Agenda

3rd Meeting, Dubai, UAE, October 25, 2018 [Planned]

� Will review progress in the implementation of ICP 2017 cycle, overall risks and

mitigation plan

Technical Advisory Group:

1st Meeting, Princeton, May 24, 2017

� Set forth the proposed ICP Research agenda and established ICP Task Forces

2nd Meeting, Washington, May 23, 2018 [Ongoing]

� Will review progress in implementing the Research Agenda and discuss technical

proposals

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Inter-Agency Coordination Group:

1st Meeting, May 9-10, 2016

� Discussed plans for the ICP 2017 cycle

2nd Meeting, Washington, September 27-29, 2016

� Reviewed status of regional and global preparations, discussed the 2017

operational materials and research agenda

3rd Meeting, New York, March 5, 2017

� Discussed recent operational activities, and finalization of operational materials for

the ICP 2017 cycle

4th Meeting, Washington, October 23-25, 2017

� Discussed the progress and timetable for implementing the 2017 cycle

5th Meeting, Washington, March 14-15, 2018

� Discussed the progress, publication of results and data access for 2017 cycle

6th Meeting, Washington, September 2018 [Planned]

� Will review the implementation of ICP 2017 cycle and initiate global validation

Governance and Coordination Meetings (2)

Capacity Building Activities [2016-2018]

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ICP RegionRegional

Workshops

Upcoming

Workshops

Country TA

Missions

Upcoming

TA Missions

Africa 2 Jun 2018 9 Various (May-Jul 2018)

Asia 7 Jul 2018 3 China (Aug 2018)

CIS 5 May 2018 - -

LAC 2 Sep 2018 - -

Western Asia 9 Sep 2018 7 Various (July-Aug 2018)

Georgia/

Ukraine/ Iran- - 7

Iran (June 2018)

Georgia (Oct 2018)

Ukraine (Oct 2018)

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DATA COLLECTION AND SUBMISSION

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Region Interim [Years] 2017 Cycle

Africa 471 [2015-16] 50

Asia 20 [2016] 22

CIS 8 [2014] 8

LAC - 34

Western Asia 12 [2012-16] 143

Eurostat-OECD 47 [Annual] 514

Dual participation2 (4) (4)

Total 130 175

Number of Participating Countries

1 Household consumption only.2 Dual participation countries include Egypt, Morocco, Russia and Sudan.3 Includes Iran, which will be linked through the Western Asia comparison.4 Includes Georgia and Ukraine, which will be linked through the Eurostat comparison.

ICP 2017 Cycle Timetable

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Regions2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Western Asia H H H HH+R

+GC

H+R

+MR

Eurostat-OECD H H H+R M+C H+G H+R H

Asia H H H H+M+C H+R+G R+G G

CIS HH+M

+C

H+M

+CR R+G R+G R

Africa H H H HH+R

+M+C

H+R+G

+M+C

LAC H H H HH+R

+G

H+R

+M+C

Results

Timeseries (2012-16) PR PR FR

Regional 2017 PR FR

Global 2017 PR FR

Acronyms: Household consumption (H), Housing (R), Government (G), Machinery and Equipment (M),

Construction (C), Preliminary Results (PR), Final Results (FR)

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Data Submission – Price Data

Region Interim 2017 Cycle

Africa [2015-16] HHC Only – Data usability for PPP

estimation is being examined

Prelim. 2017/18 data

expected in July 2018

Asia [2016] Data submission pending Prelim. 2017 data


CIS [2014] Results linked to Eurostat-OECD

comparison

Prelim. 2017 data


LAC No interim comparisons Prelim. 2017/18 data


Western Asia [2012-16] final 2012-13 and prelim. 2014-16

data submitted for all GDP components

Extrapolated 2017 data


Eurostat-

OECD

[Annual] Preliminary 2015 + 2016 data

submitted for HHC component

Prelim. 2017 data


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Data Submission – Expenditures

Region Interim 2017 Cycle

Africa Data for 2011-2016 partially submitted for

GDP/Main aggregate/category levels

Prelim. 2017 data

expected in early 2019

Asia Data for 2011-2016 partially submitted for


Prelim. 2017 data


CIS Data for 2011-2016 partially submitted for


Prelim. 2017 data


LAC Data for 2011-2016 partially submitted for


Prelim. 2017 data


Western Asia 2012-16 data submitted

for the basic heading level

Prelim. 2017 data


Eurostat-

OECD

2014-16 data submitted

for the basic heading level

Prelim. 2017 data


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Expenditures – Availability [2011-2016]

Region GDP Main Aggregates Category

Africa 99% 83% 82%

Asia 98% 64% 43%

CIS 100% 100% 32%

LAC 83% 33% 13%

Western Asia 100% 96% 95%

Eurostat-OECD 100% 100% 96%

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Deflators – Availability [2011-2016]

Region GDP HHC GOV GFCF

Africa 82% 76% 76% 77%

Asia 59% 47% 42% 43%

CIS 100% 100% 89% 100%

LAC 64% 41% 44% 44%

Western Asia 97% 71% 71% 56%

Eurostat-OECD 100% 90% 98% 98%

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CPIs – Availability [2011-2016]

Region CPI General CPI COICOP 12

Africa 91% 87%

Asia 88% 90%

CIS 100% 56%

LAC 83% 78%

Western Asia 90% 90%

Eurostat-OECD 100% 98%

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RESEARCH AGENDA

Research Agenda Items (1)

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Research Agenda Items Progress

1. Compilation of PPP Time Series and the Rolling Survey Approach

� Component 1. Moving Towards Rolling Price Surveys TF03 - Work underway (2017-2019)

� Component 2. Linking Interim Regional Updates into a

Global ComparisonTF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

� Component 3. Building PPP Time Series for the Interim

Period

TF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

[Task Team for quality assessment is

being established]

2. PPPs and Real Expenditures for Dwelling Services TF02 - Work underway (2017-2019)

3. Productivity Adjustment for Government and Construction Labor TF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

4. Fine Tuning Global Linking Procedures TF01 - Work underway (2017-2019)

5. Quality and Reliability of PPPs

� Component 1. Quality of data and results TF06 - (2019)

� Component 2. Reliability Measures for PPPs TF06 - (2020-2021)

Research Agenda Items (2)

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Research Agenda Items Progress

6. Uses of PPPs for National and International Policy Making TF04 - TF to be set up (2018-2019)

7. CPI-ICP Synergies and Sub-National PPPs TF03 - Work underway (2017-2019)

8. PPPs for Exports and Imports TF08 - (2020-2021)

9. PPPs for Construction TF10 - (2020-2021)

10. PPPs for Health and Education TF09 - (2020-2021)

11. ICP PPPs and Global Poverty Measurement – Post Atkinson

CommissionTF04 - TF to be set up (2018-2020)

12. Exploring Innovations in Technology and Data Sources for

PPP MeasurementTF07 - (2020-2021)

13. Accounting for Product Quality Differences in PPP

MeasurementTBD

Task Forces Established in 2017

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TF01. PPP COMPILATION AND COMPUTATION

� Objective: Develop and apply approaches for linking interim regional updates,

building PPP time series, fine tuning the global linking procedures, and

productivity adjustment

TF02. HOUSING

� Objective: Assess the quality of housing input data and suggest refinements and

improvements to the existing methods

TF03. COUNTRY OPERATIONAL GUIDELINES AND PROCEDURES

� Objective: Develop country guidelines for moving towards rolling price surveys,

harnessing CPI-ICP synergies, and estimating sub-national PPPs

TF01-03 Meetings:

� 1st meetings: October 2017 - Washington

� 2nd meetings: March 2018 - Washington

� 3rd meetings: September 2018 [Planned] - Washington

Upcoming Task Forces/Teams

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TASK TEAM FOR QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND PRICE INDICES

[IMF/WBG/UNSD]

� Objective: Validate data for PPP time series to inform the work of Task Forces

� 1st meeting: June 2018 – Washington

TF04. USES OF PPPS AND ICP DATA FOR POLICY MAKING

� Agenda item: Uses of PPPs and ICP data for national and international policy

making ( 2018-2019)

� Objective: Prepare an advocacy document on uses of PPPs and ICP data for policy-

making to accompany the release of the 2017 results

TF05. ICP PPPS AND GLOBAL POVERTY MEASUREMENT

� Agenda item: ICP PPPs and global poverty measurement – Post Atkinson

Commission: (2018-2020)

� Objective: Assess the impact of 2017 ICP PPPs on global poverty measures

� Pre-meeting: May 22, 2018 – Washington

ICP Task Force Timetable (1)

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Activity2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ICP Task Forces

TF1. PPP Compilation and Computation.

- Linking interim regional updates R R F

- Building interim PPP time series Preliminary research R R F

- Fine tuning global linking procedures R R F

- Productivity adjustment R R F

TF2. Housing. PPPs and real expenditures

for dwelling servicesR R F

TF3. Country Operational Guidelines and

Procedures.

- Moving towards rolling price surveys R R F

- CPI-ICP synergies Preliminary research R R F

- Sub-national PPPs Preliminary research R R F

Acronyms: Report to TAG (R); Interim output (I); Final output (F)

ICP Task Force Timetable (2)

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Activity2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ICP Task Forces

TF4. PPP Uses. Uses of PPPs and ICP data for

policy making

Preliminary

researchR F

TF5. PPPs and Poverty Measurement. ICP PPPs

and global poverty measurement

Preliminary

researchR R F

TF6. Quality and Reliability.

- Quality of data R F

- Reliability measures for PPPs Preliminary research R R F

TF7. New Data Sources. Exploring innovations in

technology and data sourcesPreliminary research R R F

TF8. Exports and Imports. PPPs for exports and

importsR R F

TF9. Non-Market Services. PPPs for health and

educationR R F

TF10. Construction. PPPs for construction R R F

Acronyms: Report to TAG (R); Interim output (I); Final output (F)

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OUTSTANDING RISKS

AND MITIGATION PLAN

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Overall Risks (1)

PARTICIPATION RISKS

� Uncertainty regarding the number of countries currently in the field

� Countries migrating from LAC to OECD

� Difficulties in securing the participation of some fragile states

TIMETABLE RISKS

� Delay in initiating ICP 2017 survey activities in two regions, which poses

risks to the timeliness, coverage and quality of the results

� Delay in data submission for 2017 and interim years

� Limited capacity/resources of some NIAs to undertake ICP activities

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Overall Risks (2)

QUALITY, COMPARABILITY, AND OPENNESS RISKS

� Delay in initiating global data validation for 2017 and interim years

� Limited usability if comparability of ICP results over time is poor

� The value of the program hindered if openness of ICP data is restricted

FUNDING AND SUSTAINABILITY RISKS

� Additional funding needed to support Caribbean countries

� Global funding gap

ADMINISTRATIVE CHALLENGES

� More strenuous administrative processes in many agencies related to

channeling funding, arranging regional workshops, and attending global

meetings

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Mitigation Action Plan (1)

MULTIPLY ADVOCACY EFFORTS

� The ICP Governing Board Co-Chairs issued letters to all national

implementing agencies to urge them to complete the 2017 cycle activities

per the agreed timetable.

INCREASE FOLLOW-UP

� Regional implementing agencies are following up more frequently with

each country to check the status of their activities and any funding or

technical assistance needs.

ORGANIZE ADDITIONAL WORKSHOPS

� Regional implementing agencies will ensure that additional regional/sub-

regional workshops are carried out in a timely manner.

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DEPLOY MORE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

� The Global ICP Unit and regional agencies are deploying more technical

assistance to support countries, especially in Africa and LAC.

� The Global ICP Unit is also deploying more consultants to support regional

teams, specifically on gross fixed capital formation and production of results.

INITIATE GLOBAL VALIDATION

� Regional implementing agencies agreed to submit all available data collected

for the interim and 2017 cycle by end of July 2018, which would allow the

Global ICP Unit to initiate the global validation process in a timely manner.

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EXAMINE COMPARABILITY OF RESULTS

� Agreement was reached with OECD and ECLAC to analyze the impact of

countries migrating from LAC to OECD.

IMPROVE OPENNESS

� The Global ICP Unit is putting forth a more open data access policy, for the

Governing Board’s consideration.

FILL FUNDING GAPS

� The Global ICP Unit is raising additional funding from Arab Fund for Economic

and Social development.

� Agreement was reached with Caribbean countries to conduct survey

activities in 2018 and obtain funding support by the end of the year.

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PUBLICATION AND DATA ACCESS

Openness Objectives

� Long-standing objective:

� Data derived from the ICP should be utilized to the maximum extent

possible for statistical, research, and analytical purposes

� Current objectives:

� Increase the ICP value proposition – Extend the publication level of ICP

results to cover more detailed headings, beyond those published in the

2005 and 2011 ICP

� Ensure quality of results – Countries requested to provide Global ICP

Unit with detailed underlying data for quality assurance

� Improve transparency in data – Expand user access to unpublished data

at a finer level of detail than in the past ICPs

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Extend Publication Level

� 2005 ICP: 24 headings covering main aggregates and categories, as well as

additional aggregates, such as actual individual consumption

� 2011 ICP: 26 headings covering main aggregates and categories, as well as

additional aggregates, such as domestic absorption

� Eurostat, OECD and CIS currently publish their results at a finer level of detail,

covering 61, 50 and 50 headings, respectively.

� ICP should follow suit and extend the publication of its results to more

detailed levels where applicable, e.g. groups and classes.

� Global ICP Unit is developing criteria for publication.

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Ensure Quality of Results

� Examine survey frame questionnaires submitted by countries

[national/urban/rural/capital city only]

� Study the possible impact of varying survey coverage on inter-regional

linking factors

� Ask countries to submit two sets of prices for global items: (i) national

average prices and (ii) capital city average prices

� Calculate inter-regional linking factors using: (i) national average prices

and (ii) capital city average prices

� Compare the two sets of linking factors and assess impact of varying

survey frames, if any

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� Users are currently able to request access to unpublished data from the 2005

and 2011 ICP rounds

� 2005 ICP: users could request access to basic heading level data and a

limited set of national average prices at item level for the 18 “Ring”

countries.

� 2011 ICP: user access was expanded to include national average prices at

item level for all participating countries.

� We are witnessing a surge in the demand for sub-national data.

� Going forward, it is proposed to expand user access to include sub-national

average price data at the item level, where available.

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Expand User Access

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KNOWLEDGE, OUTREACH

AND USES

� PPP e-Learning Course

� ICP 50th Anniversary Video

� ICP 50th Anniversary Posters

� ICP Website

� ICP Highlights Newsletter

Knowledge & Outreach

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ICP Golden Jubilee [2018]

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2018 marks the 50th anniversary of the

ICP. Special events are being organized to

celebrate this milestone:

� [March, 2018, New York] Reception for

UNSC Delegates & ICP video and

poster exhibition at the UN

headquarters

� [March 2018, Washington] Celebration

lunch with Inter-Agency Coordination

Group and experts

� [May 2018, Washington] A special

event and reception.

� Regional celebrations around major

statistical events in every region

PPP Uses by Type and Focus [2014-2018]

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PPP Uses by Topic [2014-2018]

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Notable uses: Shareholding Formulas of the IMF

and World Bank

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- PPPs are used in the IMF and World Bank shareholding quota

formulas.

- Economic Weights in the Quota formula are measured by GDP,

using a blend of market exchange rates and PPPs.

THANK YOU

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