brief update on global activities and risk...

March 5, 2017, New York

BRIEF UPDATE ON GLOBAL ACTIVITIES

AND RISK ASSESSMENT

3rd Inter-Agency Coordination Group Meeting

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Outline

� Overview of latest global activities

� Overall risk assessment

� Global timetable

� Analysis of GCL item overlap

� Assessment of extrapolation data

� 4th IACG meeting

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OVERVIEW OF LATEST GLOBAL

ACTIVITIES

3

Governance Activities

4

GOVERNING BOARD

– First meeting held on November 15, 2016

– Endorsed ICP governance framework, established the TAG, and

discussed preparations for the ICP 2017 cycle

TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP (TAG) AND TASK FORCES

– TAG members include 10 academics, practitioners and users

– First meeting scheduled for May 24, 2017 in Princeton, New Jersey

– TAG to discuss ICP research agenda and establish Task Forces

ICP REPORT TO 48TH UNSC

– Comprehensive update on the efforts undertaken at the global

and regional levels to complete interim activities, prepare for the

ICP 2017 cycle, and transform the ICP into a permanent program

Operational Activities

5

FINALIZATION OF ICP 2017 OPERATIONAL MATERIALS

– Revised ICP classification, national accounts forms, global core lists

(GCL) and survey forms, and survey framework questionnaire

circulated (December 2016)

– Machinery and Equipment list & form to be finalized (April 2017)

SUPPORTING REGIONAL ACTIVITIES AND WORKSHOPS

– ICP-Africa Task Force meeting, Abidjan (November 2016)

– IC-Africa Workshop, Lusaka (January/February 2017)

– ICP-Asia Workshop, Bangkok (February 2017)

– ICP-Western Asia Workshop, Cairo (February 2017)

Research and Technical Activities

6

SUB-NATIONAL PPPS

– International Conference on Sub-national PPPs, Real GDP and Living

Conditions Comparisons, Nanchang (October 2016)

– Workshop on sub-national PPPs in India, Delhi (February 2017)

PPPS AND POVERTY MEASUREMENT

– Workshop on Global Poverty and ICP/PPP (February 2017)

– Paper on “Poverty-Specific PPPs in Africa”

USES OF PPPS

– ICP Session at IAOS 2016 Conference, Abu Dhabi (December 2016)

– Paper on “Uses of Purchasing Power Parities to better inform policy

making and poverty measurement”

Knowledge Activities

7

Video Tutorial on PLIs And Real

GDP Per Capital

Leaflet on PPP

Fundamentals

E-learning Course [End Of June 2017]

Outreach Activities

8

Blog Post “What’s Next

For PPPs And The ICP”

Q4 2016 UpdateNew ICP Website

OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT

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Participation and Timetable Risks

10

COUNTRY PARTICIPATION

– Dual participation

– Countries moving regions

– Pacific islands

– Afghanistan

– Iran

– Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

– Fragile countries [Yemen, Libya, etc.]

TIMETABLE

– Delayed start and tight schedule

– Survey timetable misalignment challenges for data validation and

finalization

Technical Risks

11

QUALITY OF LINKING FACTORS

– Maintain good GCL overlap despite survey timetable misalignment

across regions

– Harmonize “perception of quality” across regions

CONSISTENCY WITH 2011

– Balancing needed improvements [ex: housing] vs. consistency

– Limit changes in survey coverage

– Assess impact of countries moving regions on results

AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF EXTRAPOLATORS

– Crucial for PPP time series

Openness, Outreach and Funding Risks

12

OPENNESS

– Lack of openness could sink the ICP

– Need to lobby country to provide further details such as capital city

average prices, sub-national average prices or urban/rural

average prices

– Countries may require technical assistance on data management

OUTREACH

– Need to reach the “right” policy-makers/decision-makers in

countries

RESOURCES

– Lower funding levels than 2011

– Channeling funding to countries

– Shortage in human resources in some countries

GLOBAL TIMETABLE

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Survey Schedule for the ICP 2017

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Acronyms: Fast evolving technology (FET); House and Garden, incl. FET (HG); Transport, Restaurants and Hotels

(TRH); Services (SE); Furniture and Health (FH); Food, Drinks and Tobacco (FDT); Personal Appearance (PA)

Region / Survey2016 2017 2018

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Household Consumption (incl. private health and education)

Africa ? ?

Asia

CIS

LAC ? ?

Western Asia FET

Eurostat-OECD HG TRH SE FH FDT PA


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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Housing (rentals and volume)

Africa

Asia R V

CIS

LAC R V

Western Asia R R V

Eurostat-OECD R V

Government

Africa

Asia

CIS

LAC

Western Asia

Eurostat-OECD

Acronyms: Housing rents (R); Housing volume (V)


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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Machinery and Equipment

Africa

Asia

CIS

LAC

Western Asia

Eurostat-OECD

Construction

Africa

Asia

CIS

LAC

Western Asia

Eurostat-OECD

Results Preparation and Publication

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Interim Results

Asia (2015-2016)

CIS (2014)

Western Asia (2016)

Eurostat-OECD P P P

Global (2012-2016) P

ICP 2017 Cycle

Africa PR PR FR+P

Asia PR PR FR+P

CIS PR PR FR+P

LAC PR PR FR+P

Western Asia PR PR FR+P

Eurostat-OECD PR+P PR+P

Global PR PR FR+P

Acronyms: Preliminary Results (PR), Final Results (FR), Publication (P)

ANALYSIS OF GCL ITEM OVERLAP

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GCL Item Overlap for Linking

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REVIEW OF REGIONAL LISTS’ AS OF FEBRUARY 2017

– Household consumption, excluding housing and private education

– Global Core List (GCL) version circulate in Dec. (revised in Feb.)

– EUO: list from 2015-2017, WAS: 2016 list

# Number of… GCL AFR ASI CIS EUO LAC WAS

(0) Items - ~551 ~916 ~2000 ~2021 ~415 ~633

(1) GCL items 631 414 457 - 458 399 432

(2) “Stand-alone" GCL items 44 6 10 - 16 4 8

(3) “Not selected" GCL items 4 - - - - - -

(1) - (2) - (3) 582 407 447 - 442 395 424

4 “Not Selected" GCL items

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# BH code BH name Item code Item name Region

1 1101111 Rice 110111104 Jasmine rice, WKB -

2 1101191Food products

n.e.c.110119114

Hot sauce, TABASCO

Original Red Sauce -

3 1102121 Wine 110212102Red wine, European,

WKB-

4 1109511

Newspapers,

books and

Stationery

110951112Novel, paperback,

British classic-

44 “Stand-alone" GCL items (1)

21


01 1101111 Rice 110111103Long grain rice, family pack, WKB

AFR

02 1101111 Rice 110111108 Brown rice, family pack, BL ASI

03 1101111 Rice 110111111Long-grain rice, UNCLE BEN'S ORIGINAL

WAS

04 1101113 Bread 110111306 Pita bread, BNR WAS

05 1101131Fresh, chilled or frozen fish and seafood

110113108 Cod (gadus morhua) EUO

06 1101132Preserved or processed fish and seafood

110113205 Dried shrimps, BNR AFR

07 1101143 Cheese and curd 110114306 Tofu, WKB ASI

08 1101161 Fresh or chilled fruit 110116104 Fresh grapefruit WAS

09 1101191 Food products n.e.c. 110119106 Curry powder, WKB ASI

10 1101191 Food products n.e.c. 110119111 Chili sauce, WKB ASI

11 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121104 Coffee, grounded, blend, WKB EUO

12 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121107 Black tea, BL AFR

13 1101211 Coffee, tea, and cocoa 110121108 Black tea, in bags, BL EUO

14 1101221Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices

110122106Carbonated drink, fruit flavoured, WKB

EUO

15 1101221Mineral waters, soft drinks, fruit and vegetable juices

110122107 Water, still, large bottle, BL EUO


22


16 1102111 Spirits 110211104Liqueur, BAILEYS, Original Irish cream

EUO

17 1102121 Wine 110212105 Red wine, Australian, WKB ASI

18 1102121 Wine 110212106 White wine, South African, WKB AFR

19 1102121 Wine 110212107 Red wine, Chilean, WKB LAC

20 1103121 Garments 110312112 Women's summer pants, WKB-M LAC

21 1104311Maintenance and repair of the dwelling

110431104 Wall tiles, ceramic, WKB WAS

22 1104411 Water supply 110441104Water supply, other water sources

WAS

23 1105211 Household Textiles 110521109 Hand towel, WKB EUO

24 1105311Major household appliances whether electric or not

110531110Air conditioner, cooling and heating , split chassis, WKB-M

WAS


110531115Air conditioner, cooling, window, WKB-M

ASI


110531116Washing machine, frontloader, 7-8 kg, SAMSUNG

EUO

27 1105321Small electric household appliances

110532106 Table fan, BL ASI


23


28 1105411Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils

110541108 Rolling pin, BL ASI

29 1105411Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils

110541109Cutlery set, 24 pieces, chrome steel, BL

WAS

30 1105521Small tools and miscellaneous accessories

110552105 Padlock, BL AFR

31 1105622 Household services 110562202Laundry, self-service (launderette, laundromat)

EUO

32 1107111 Motor cars 110711117Motor car, petrol engine, TOYOTA Camry 2.5L

WAS

33 1107111 Motor cars 110711118Motor car, petrol engine, FORD Mondeo 2.0 EcoBoost

LAC

34 1107111 Motor cars 110711121Motor car, petrol engine, VOLKSWAGEN Touareg 3.6 V6

ASI

35 1107111 Motor cars 110711122Motor car, diesel engine, HYUNDAI Tuscon 2.0 CRDi

ASI

36 1107311Passenger transport by railway

110731105Urban tram (rail) or tube, monthly ticket

EUO

37 1107321 Passenger transport by road 110732102 Urban (city) bus, monthly EUO


24


38 1108311Telephone and telefax services

110831108Monthly mobile phone plan, 500 min. and 500 SMS

LAC

39 1109311Other recreational items and equipment

110931105 Construction toy, LEGO City EUO

40 1109311Other recreational items and equipment

110931106Portable video game console, NINTENDO 3DS XL/LL

EUO

41 1111111 Catering services 111111108 Beef steak, at restaurant AFR

42 1111111 Catering services 111111111Meat cubes on skewer, at basic eat-in place

EUO

43 1111111 Catering services 111111113Irish cream, BAILEYS Original, at bar

EUO

44 1112311 Jewellery, clocks and watches 111231101Wrist-watch, children's, SWATCH Flik Flak

EUO

Challenges: BHs with Potentially Weak Links

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After the exclusion of “stand-alone” and “not selected” items, all regions

have at least one GCL item per BH, but some BHs have only one GCL item

BH code BH nameTotal # of GCL

items

Regions with one

GCL item

1101113 Bread 6 WAS

1101123 Lamb, mutton and goat 4 EUO, LAC

1101125 Other meats and meat preparations 4 ASI

1101144 Egg and egg-based products 2 (!) AFR

1101172 Fresh or chilled potatoes and… 3 EUO

1101181 Sugar 2 (!) EUO

1102131 Beer 3 WAS

1104411 Water supply 3 ASI

1104511 Electricity 4 ASI

1104521 Gas 3 ASI

1105511 Major Tools and Equipment 2 (!) AFR, ASI

1105621 Domestic services 3 AFR, ASI

1105622 Household services 2 (!) All

1106221 Services of dentists 2 (!) EUO

1107131 Bicycles 3 WAS

1111211 Accommodation services 4 ASI

1112311 Jewelry, clocks and watches 5 EUO

Challenges: GCL Brand Types

26

GCL BRAND TYPES AS AGREED AT THE 2ND IACG MEETING

– Well known Brand (WKB): Products with “brand-value”

– Brandless (BL): Products without “brand-value”

– Brand not Relevant (BNR): “Brand-value” concept does not apply

WELL KNOWN BRAND (WKB) BREAK-DOWN FOR 7 BHS

– WKB-High (no items on GCL) / WKB-Medium / WKB-Low

– 7 BHs: Clothing materials; Garments; Shoes; Major household

appliances; Small household appliances; Glassware and tableware;

Major Tools and equipment

– Aims to achieve better comparability across countries

– No change vs. ICP 2011

– Countries have raised concerns on operational feasibility of the WKB

breakdown

Clarifications on Electricity Items

27

February 2017 GCL update: SPD revision and addition of equivalent monthly consumption targets

ASSESSMENT OF EXTRAPOLATION DATA

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Assessment of Extrapolation Data

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EXTRAPOLATION DATABASE

– Extrapolation data is crucial to allow us to continue to test, fine-

tune and ultimately enable the PPP time series approach

– Approach requires detailed time-series data for expenditures,

deflators, CPIs, population and exchange rate

• Potential addition: producer price indices

– Biannual submission schedule agreed at the 2nd IACG meeting

SUBMISSIONS: STATUS AND COMPLETENESS

– All six regions (AFR, ASI, CIS, EUO, LAC, WAS) have reported or

provided updated extrapolation data

– Sparse coverage of detailed time-series data for many countries

Expenditures: GDP and Main Aggregates

30

GDP Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions

Region (# of countries) ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16

Africa (50+4) 53 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 50 25 0

Asia and the Pacific (23) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 6

CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 2

Latin America (17+1) 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 15 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 13 12 0 0

Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0

Main Aggregates (7) Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 6 0

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 42 42 42 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 37 2

Latin America (17+1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0

+ Category level for HHC and GFCF

Deflators: GDP and Main Aggregates

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GDP Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 50 50 51 52 53 53 53 53 53 48 24 0


CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 7 0

Latin America (17+1) 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0

Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0

Main Aggregates (5) Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8

Eurostat-OECD (47) 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 5 0

Latin America (17+1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

Western Asia (12) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 0 0 0

+ Category level for HHC and GFCF

CPIs: General and COICOP-12

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General Year (2005-2016) / # of Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 49 50 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 48 0


CIS (8+1) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43

Latin America (17+1) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 17 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 0 0

Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0

COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Complete Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 12 15 23 27 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 0


CIS (8+1) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 0

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 37 38 39 39 39 41 41 41 41 41 40 40

Latin America (17+1) 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 17 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 21 21 0 0

Western Asia (12) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0 0 0

CPIs: COICOP-12 (Partial Submissions)

33

COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Countries Without data


Africa (50+4) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 9 54


CIS (8+1) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Latin America (17+1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 18 18

The Caribbean (22+1) 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 23 23

Western Asia (12) 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 12

COICOP-12 Year (2005-2016) / # of Partial Country Submissions


Africa (50+4) 34 32 25 22 19 19 19 19 19 20 17 0


CIS (8+1) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 0

Eurostat-OECD (47+1) 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Latin America (17+1) 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 0 0

The Caribbean (22+1) 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 7 7 7 0 0

Western Asia (12) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4TH IACG MEETING

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Planning the 4th IACG Meeting

35

PROPOSED TIMING AND LOCATION

– 4th week of October 2017

– Washington, DC

PROPOSED FORMAT AND AGENDA

– Part 1: IACG agencies

• Update on progress, globally and regionally

• Validation of GCL prices across regions, where available

• Risk assessment and mitigation measures

– Part 2: IACG agencies + Selected countries

• Review country perception of the quality of the GCL items

Planning the 4th IACG Meeting

36

POSSIBLE CRITERIA FOR SELECTING COUNTRIES

– Countries on the Governing Board

– Countries in the FOC Group

– Base countries

– Large countries

– Dual participation countries

– Group Leaders in EU

TARGET NUMBER OF COUNTRIES: 15-20

THANK YOU

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