© worldpanel tm division of tns 2009 edward garner communications director worldpanel – uk gb...
TRANSCRIPT
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Edward GarnerCommunications Director Worldpanel – UK
GB Grocery Retailer OverviewMeat Promotion Wales – 12 November 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Recession – is it ending?
Grocery Price Inflation – TNS Calculation
Based on year-on-year comparisons of price paid for over 75,000 identical products including promotions and in the proportion that British households are purchasing them
12 w/e periods year-on-year
4.5 4.8
5.8
6.9
8.18.9 9.2
8.78.3 8.1 8.3 8.6
9.1 8.88.1
7.0
5.95.1
4.33.5
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total RST – Key Dynamics to 04 October 2009
3.5 3.1
-0.2-1.1
-0.6+1.5
Inflation HHVolumeChange
StoreChoice
PromotionChoice
ProductChoice
HH SpendChange
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns
of
Ch
an
ge
%
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
RST evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Inflation
HH Spend change
0.6 1.4 0.6 0.7 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5-0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5
-0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2-0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8-1.1
-1.3 -1.3-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1
0.30.9
0.7 0.1
-0.8 -1.1-1.1
-1.3-1.4
-1.9 -2.3 -2.8 -3 -3.3 -3.9 -3.2 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6
24-F
eb.
23-M
ar.
20-A
pr.
18-M
ay.
15-J
un.
13-J
ul.
10-A
ug.
07-S
ep.
05-O
ct.
02-N
ov.
30-N
ov.
28-D
ec.
25-J
an.
22-F
eb.
22-M
ar.
19-A
pril.
17-M
ay.
14-J
un.
12-J
ul.
09-A
ug.
06-S
ep.
04-O
ct.
Product
Promotion
Retailer
Volume
12 w/e 04 October 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4O
ct 0
7 20
07
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul
13 2
008
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul
12 2
009
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Premium OL
Healthy OL
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery 4-weekly Targeted Own Label Shares
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4O
ct 0
7 20
07
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul
13 2
008
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul
12 2
009
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Value OL
Premium OL
Healthy OL
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocers Year-on-Year £% Changes
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
5030
-Dec
-07
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e periods
Sal
es G
row
th £
%
Economy PL
Premium PL
Healthy PL
Other PL
Branded
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery Budget PL Trends - 4-wkly £m
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Asda
Tesco
Sainsbury
Morrisons
Latest 12-wk % Change
-2%
0%
+29%
+23%
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Premium Private Label Sales Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sa
les
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
£m
)
Tesco Finest Sainsbury Taste the Difference Asda Extra Special MorrisonsThe Best
+5%
Latest 12-wk % Change
-10%
-6%
+8%
Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4Shoppers are now trading up as Branded steals from Value OL.
Standard Own Label
Branded
Value Own Label
Premium Own Label
Switching limited to Big 4 retailers and 4 tiers
Net Switching through price tiers in the Big 4
Total Grocery 12we 04th October 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery Branded vs. Private Label - £%
37 40 41
4042
45
33
380
8589
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
52 w/e Oct 07 2007 52 w/e Oct 05 2008 52 w/e Oct 04 2009
£bn
No Brand Name
Branded
Private Label
+6.0%
+7.5%
+5.4%
+4.4%
+7.1%+5.4%
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
341
99
3
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Sainsbury Tesco Asda Morrisons Tot
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
31.0
16.9
15.5
11.0
5.4
3.7
2.9
3.9
2.3
2.5
1.7
0.8
0.5
30.9
17.2
15.7
11.5
5.4
4.0
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.2
1.7
0.8
0.6
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury
Morrisons
Co-operative
Waitrose
Aldi
Somerfield
Lidl
Tot Indepts
Iceland
Netto
Farm Foods
12 w/e 04 Oct 0912 w/e 05 Oct 08
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
12
8
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
-7
-28
Waitrose
Morrisons
Iceland
Asda
Sainsbury
Total Hard Disc
Co-operative
Tot Grocers
Tesco
Tot Indepts
Somerfield12 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y % Change
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes £000s
1,299,790
1,163,030
935,940
876,430
550,652
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury
Morrisons
Total Hard Disc52 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y £ Change
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco Share of Till Roll Grocers
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Tesco Tesco Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oct
21
20
07
No
v 0
4 2
00
7
No
v 1
8 2
00
7
De
c 0
2 2
00
7
De
c 1
6 2
00
7
De
c 3
0 2
00
7
Jan
13
20
08
Jan
27
20
08
Fe
b 1
0 2
00
8
Fe
b 2
4 2
00
8
Ma
r 0
9 2
00
8
Ma
r 2
3 2
00
8
Ap
r 0
6 2
00
8
Ap
r 2
0 2
00
8
Ma
y 0
4 2
00
8
Ma
y 1
8 2
00
8
Jun
01
20
08
Jun
15
20
08
Jun
29
20
08
Jul 1
3 2
00
8
Jul 2
7 2
00
8
Au
g 1
0 2
00
8
Au
g 2
4 2
00
8
Se
p 0
7 2
00
8
Se
p 2
1 2
00
8
Oct
05
20
08
Oct
19
20
08
No
v 0
2 2
00
8
No
v 1
6 2
00
8
No
v 3
0 2
00
8
De
c 1
4 2
00
8
De
c 2
8 2
00
8
Jan
11
20
09
Jan
25
20
09
Fe
b 0
8 2
00
9
Fe
b 2
2 2
00
9
Ma
r 0
8 2
00
9
Ma
r 2
2 2
00
9
Ap
r 0
5 2
00
9
Ap
r 1
9 2
00
9
Ma
y 0
3 2
00
9
Ma
y 1
7 2
00
9
Ma
y 3
1 2
00
9
Jun
14
20
09
Jun
28
20
09
Jul 1
2 2
00
9
Jul 2
6 2
00
9
Au
g 0
9 2
00
9
Au
g 2
3 2
00
9
Se
p 0
6 2
00
9
Se
p 2
0 2
00
9
Oct
04
20
09
Finest
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco Private Label Weekly Sales £m
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oct
21
20
07
No
v 0
4 2
00
7
No
v 1
8 2
00
7
De
c 0
2 2
00
7
De
c 1
6 2
00
7
De
c 3
0 2
00
7
Jan
13
20
08
Jan
27
20
08
Fe
b 1
0 2
00
8
Fe
b 2
4 2
00
8
Ma
r 0
9 2
00
8
Ma
r 2
3 2
00
8
Ap
r 0
6 2
00
8
Ap
r 2
0 2
00
8
Ma
y 0
4 2
00
8
Ma
y 1
8 2
00
8
Jun
01
20
08
Jun
15
20
08
Jun
29
20
08
Jul 1
3 2
00
8
Jul 2
7 2
00
8
Au
g 1
0 2
00
8
Au
g 2
4 2
00
8
Se
p 0
7 2
00
8
Se
p 2
1 2
00
8
Oct
05
20
08
Oct
19
20
08
No
v 0
2 2
00
8
No
v 1
6 2
00
8
No
v 3
0 2
00
8
De
c 1
4 2
00
8
De
c 2
8 2
00
8
Jan
11
20
09
Jan
25
20
09
Fe
b 0
8 2
00
9
Fe
b 2
2 2
00
9
Ma
r 0
8 2
00
9
Ma
r 2
2 2
00
9
Ap
r 0
5 2
00
9
Ap
r 1
9 2
00
9
Ma
y 0
3 2
00
9
Ma
y 1
7 2
00
9
Ma
y 3
1 2
00
9
Jun
14
20
09
Jun
28
20
09
Jul 1
2 2
00
9
Jul 2
6 2
00
9
Au
g 0
9 2
00
9
Au
g 2
3 2
00
9
Se
p 0
6 2
00
9
Se
p 2
0 2
00
9
Oct
04
20
09
Value Finest Tesco Discount Brands
Average Price per pack in TescoDiscount similar to Promoted Standard Own Label
0.69
0.941.03
1.201.30
1.68
Value Discountbrands
PROMOTEDStandard own
label
FULL PRICEStandard own
label
PROMOTEDBrands
FULL PRICEBrands
£ pr
ice
per
pack
RST (grocery) 12we 4 Oct 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
£0 - £9999pa
£10000 -£19999 pa
£20000 -£29999 pa
£30000 -£39999 pa
£40000 -£49999 pa
£50000 -£59999 pa
£60000 -£69999 pa
£70000 +
52 w/e Oct 07 2007 52 w/e Oct 05 2008 52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Household Income Signatures
Outlet Share within Demographic Group
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Asda Share of Till Roll Grocers
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Asda Asda Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Asda Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Asda Demographic SignaturesTill RollOutlet Share within Demographic Group - MAT to October
0
5
10
15
20
25
Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E
2007 2008 2009
Social Class
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Age under28
Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+
2007 2008 2009
Housewife Age
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH
2007 2008 2009
Household Size
0
5
10
15
20
25
No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH
2007 2008 2009
No. of Children
13.9 C2DE Large households
Younger With children
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Asda
Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries
Total Toiletries 119Total Healthcare 113Total Household 111Total Ambient Groceries 101Total Fresh+Chilled 97Total Alcohol 97Total Frozen 94
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeAsda
11.4
10.3
9.3
8.5
8.4
7.5
7.3
6.0
Total Alcohol
Total Healthcare
Total Ambient Groceries
TOTAL GROCERIES
Total Household
Total Fresh+Chilled
Total Frozen
Total Toiletries 52 w/e 04 Oct 09
Strong performance in Alcohol
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % ChangeOrganic
-2
-10
-12
-13
-16
-24
Waitrose
Sainsbury
Tot Grocers
Tesco
Morrisons
Asda
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
Sharp cutback in Organic
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Share of Total Grocers - Organic
29.5
22.9
16.7
10.8
6.7
3.7
3.6
1.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
29.3
23.5
18.7
9.3
6.4
3.0
2.9
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
Tesco
Sainsbury
Waitrose
Asda
Morrisons
Co-operative
M & S
Somerfield
Lidl
Tot Indepts
Aldi
Farm Foods
Iceland
Netto
12 w/e 04 Oct 0912 w/e 05 Oct 08
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Net Switching Volumes to Asda
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
30-D
ec-0
727
-Jan
-08
24-F
eb-0
823
-Mar
-08
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
Net
sw
itch
ing
- S
pen
d
Tesco Somerfield M & S
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
02-D
ec-0
730
-Dec
-07
27-J
an-0
824
-Feb
-08
23-M
ar-0
820
-Apr
-08
18-M
ay-0
815
-Jun
-08
13-J
ul-0
810
-Aug
-08
07-S
ep-0
805
-Oct
-08
02-N
ov-0
830
-Nov
-08
28-D
ec-0
825
-Jan
-09
22-F
eb-0
922
-Mar
-09
19-A
pr-0
917
-May
-09
14-J
un-0
912
-Jul
-09
09-A
ug-0
906
-Sep
-09
Net
sw
itch
ing
- S
pen
d
Lidl Aldi Netto
12 weeks ending
Net Switching Volumes to Asda
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Importance of Promotions by Retailer
16 1813
1713
17 1519 17 19
913
19 19
6 5
43
75 8
5 6 4
3
5
5 2
10
1315
910 6 6 6 6
33
6
87
21
1
1
11
3 3 32
11
2
9
7
1111
73
5
82
Tesco Asda Sainsbury Morrisons Somerfield Waitrose Co-operative Iceland
TPR MultiBuy Y for £X Extra Free
% Outlet Turnover by Promotional Type52 w/e Oct 5 2008 v.52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000D
ec 0
4 20
05Ja
n 01
200
6Ja
n 29
200
6F
eb 2
6 20
06M
ar 2
6 20
06A
pr 2
3 20
06M
ay 2
1 20
06Ju
n 18
200
6Ju
l 16
2006
Aug
13
2006
Sep
10
2006
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07A
ug 1
2 20
07S
ep 0
9 20
07O
ct 0
7 20
07N
ov 0
4 20
07D
ec 0
2 20
07D
ec 3
0 20
07Ja
n 27
200
8F
eb 2
4 20
08M
ar 2
3 20
08A
pr 2
0 20
08M
ay 1
8 20
08Ju
n 15
200
8Ju
l 13
2008
Aug
10
2009
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09A
ug 0
9 20
09S
ep 0
6 20
09O
ct 0
4 20
09
Sainsbury
Tesco
Asda
Morrisons Tot
BOGOF Sales by Outlet £000s
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Dec
04
2005
Jan
01 2
006
Jan
29 2
006
Feb
26
2006
Mar
26
2006
Apr
23
2006
May
21
2006
Jun
18 2
006
Jul 1
6 20
06A
ug 1
3 20
06S
ep 1
0 20
06O
ct 0
8 20
06N
ov 0
5 20
06D
ec 0
3 20
06D
ec 3
1 20
06Ja
n 28
200
7F
eb 2
5 20
07M
ar 2
5 20
07A
pr 2
2 20
07M
ay 2
0 20
07Ju
n 17
200
7Ju
l 15
2007
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08A
ug 1
0 20
09S
ep 0
7 20
08O
ct 0
5 20
08N
ov 0
2 20
08N
ov 3
0 20
08D
ec 2
8 20
08Ja
n 25
200
9F
eb 2
2 20
09M
ar 2
2 20
09A
pr 1
9 20
09M
ay 1
7 20
09Ju
n 14
200
9Ju
l 12
2009
Aug
09
2009
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
BOGOF Sales for the Top 4 Multiples £000s
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Retailer Price Track - Total Grocery
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2004 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2005 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2006 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2007 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2008 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Pri
ce
Ind
ex
Sainsbury Asda Morrisons Tesco
Strong price focus
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Retailer Price Track - Total Grocery
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.0020
04 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320
05 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320
06 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320
07 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320
08 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1320
09 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
ALDI ASDA LIDL
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Smart price Own brand Brown/white bread 30p £0.72
Potatoes 64p (2.5 kilo) £1.98 (2.5 kilo)
Crisps 47 p (12 pack) 1.39
Oranges 40p kg £0.99 kg
Cola 18p 2 litres £0.39 2 litres
Baked beans 18p can 31p can
Sausages 48p 8 pack (454g) £1.88 8 pack (454g)
Yoghurt 36p (6x125g) £0.98 (6x125g)
Eggs 82p (6) £1.36 (6)
Cornflakes 70p (750g) £1.14 (750g)
Frozen peas 84p (907g) £1.52 (kg)
Tea bags 28p (80) £1.29 (80)
Margarine 21p (500g) £0.79 (500g)
Basket cost £5.86 £14.74
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices - £% - Asda
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep 0
9 20
07
Oct 07
2007
Nov 04
2007
Dec 02
2007
Dec 30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb 2
4 2008
Mar
23 20
08
Apr 2
0 20
08
May
18 2
008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 200
8
Aug 1
0 20
08
Sep 0
7 20
08
Oct 05
2008
Nov 02
2008
Nov 30
2008
Dec 28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb 2
2 2009
Mar
22 20
09
Apr 1
9 20
09
May
17 2
009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 200
9
Aug 0
9 20
09
Sep 0
6 20
09
Oct 04
2009
£1
£2
£3
£4
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices £1/2/3/4 - £%
57
42
24
15
15
14
13
11
9
9
7
3
2
1
Iceland
Farm Foods
Asda
Somerfield
Morrisons
Tesco
Co-operative
Sainsbury
Tot Indepts
Lidl
M & S
Waitrose
Netto
Aldi 12 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home DeliveryValue Values
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury Share of Till Roll Grocers
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Sainsbury Sainsbury Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Retailer Price Track - Total Grocery
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
2004 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2005 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2006 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2007 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2008 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Pri
ce
Ind
ex
Sainsbury
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
What price points are driving Sainsbury's growth?
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-0
8
30-N
ov-0
8
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-0
9
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un-09
12-J
ul-09
09-A
ug-0
9
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e periods - Total Grocery
Sp
end
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o C
han
ge
(£00
0s)
>£4.20
£3.00-£4.20
£1.80-£3.00
£1.20-£1.80
0-£1.20
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Tesco Value Demographic SignaturesTotal GroceryShare % within Demographic Group
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E
52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Social Class
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
Age under 28 Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Housewife Age
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH
52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Household Size
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH52 w/e Oct 04 2009
No. of Children
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury Basics Demographic SignaturesTotal GroceryShare % within Demographic Group
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E
52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Social Class
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Age under 28 Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Housewife Age
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH
52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Household Size
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH52 w/e Oct 04 2009
No. of Children
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Grocery Budget PL Trends
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
198
2 3 4 199
2 3 4 100
2 3 4 101
2 3 4 102
2 3 4 103
2 3 4 104
2 3 4 105
2 3 4 106
2 3 4 107
2 3 4 108
2 3 4 109
2 3
Asda
Tesco
Sainsbury's
£% within Outlet
Morrisons
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Premium Private Label Sales Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sa
les
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
£m
)
Tesco Finest Sainsbury Taste the Difference Asda Extra Special Safeway/MorrisonsThe Best
12 wk y-o-y trend -10%
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Sainsbury
Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries
Total Healthcare 124Total Toiletries 118Total Fresh+Chilled 109Total Alcohol 99Total Household 94Total Ambient Groceries 92Total Frozen 73
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeSainsbury
12.0
9.4
9.3
6.5
5.8
5.4
4.6
3.4
Total Frozen
Total Healthcare
Total Ambient Groceries
TOTAL GROCERIES
Total Household
Total Fresh+Chilled
Total Toiletries
Total Alcohol
52 w/e 04 Oct 09
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury Share IndexI actively seek out fair trade products 132I am prepared to pay more for organic food 124The nutritional labeling on food & drink products has an effect on what I buy 116I try to buy environmentally friendly products 115It is important to me what brand I buy 113I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 110I am willing to travel further to shop at the supermarket I prefer 110I/my partner enjoy cooking to entertain friends and family 110If usual item is not available than I buy another size rather than change brands 110I am more likely to buy a HBA product if it is made of more natural ingredients 109I try to buy local product whenever I can 108The brand name of the clothes I wear is important to me 108I stick with a brand I usually buy than try something I am not very sure of 107I restrict how much sugary food I eat 106My diet is very important to me 106I like to go to stores where I can buy everything I need at one time 106I am always looking out for health & beauty products with new added benefits 105I have a pastime/hobby that is an important part of my life 105I am always under time pressure when I do grocery shopping 105I try to lead a healthy lifestyle 105
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug 9 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb
26
2006
Mar
26
2006
Apr
23
2006
May
21
2006
Jun
18 2
006
Jul 1
6 20
06
Aug
13
2006
Sep
10
2006
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Aug
10
2008
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Total Grocers
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb
26
2006
Mar
26
2006
Apr
23
2006
May
21
2006
Jun
18 2
006
Jul 1
6 20
06
Aug
13
2006
Sep
10
2006
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Aug
10
2008
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Total Grocers
Sainsbury
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Feb
26
2006
Mar
26
2006
Apr
23
2006
May
21
2006
Jun
18 2
006
Jul 1
6 20
06
Aug
13
2006
Sep
10
2006
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Aug
10
2008
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Total Grocers
SainsburyWaitrose
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Eggs
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Not-Caged Eggs Market Share
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Aug
10
2008
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Aug
09
2009
Sep
06
2009
Asda
Tesco
Morrisons
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Not-Caged Eggs Market Share
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct
08
2006
Nov
05
2006
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28 2
007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Apr
22
2007
May
20
2007
Jun
17 2
007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Aug
12
2007
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
Nov
04
2007
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27 2
008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Apr
20
2008
May
18
2008
Jun
15 2
008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Aug
10
2008
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
Nov
02
2008
Nov
30
2008
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25 2
009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Apr
19
2009
May
17
2009
Jun
14 2
009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Aug
09
2009
Sep
06
2009
Asda
Tesco
Morrisons
Sainsbury’s
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Sainsbury
Broad Area
Market Sector
MarketTotal Healthcare 124Total Toiletries 118Total Fresh+Chilled 109Total Alcohol 99Total Household 94Total Ambient Groceries 92Total Frozen 73
Fresh Fish 146Chilled Drinks 127Bathroom Toiletries 124Healthcare 124Oral-Care 118Fresh Poultry+Game 117Fresh Meat 113Chilled Bakery Products 113Haircare 113Fruit+Veg+Salads 112Chilled Convenience 110Other Toiletries 109
Processed Plty Escalopes 603Mixers 413Ambient Pizza Bases 320Frozen Stuffing 240Chilled Salad Accomps 219Chilled Olives 212Chilled Vegetarian 196Ambient Vgtrn Products 192Eye Care 183Chilled Prepared Fish 179Mens Skincare 167Smoking Cessation 165Shellfish 160Sleeping Aids 160Chilled Gravy+Stock 156Fresh Lamb 154Fresh Soup 152Lmscle Rmvrs/Water Softener 149Skincare 149Shoe Care Products 148
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Organic Index v Social Class
NettoAldiLidl
IndeptsCo-op
Iceland
Morrisons
Waitrose
Somerfield
Asda
Tesco
Sainsbury
Tot Grocers
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
ABC1
Org
an
ic In
de
x
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
30-D
ec-0
727
-Jan
-08
24-F
eb-0
823
-Mar
-08
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
Per
iod
2 C
han
ge
- C
olu
mn
s
Category Departures
Shoppers Won
Shoppers Held
Total Switching
12 weeks ending Category Level Changes
Sainsbury, Rolling Source of Change in Spend
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Net Switching to Sainsbury from Tesco
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
30-D
ec-0
727
-Jan
-08
24-F
eb-0
823
-Mar
-08
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
Net
sw
itch
ing
- S
pen
d
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Net Switching to Sainsbury from M & S
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
30-D
ec-0
727
-Jan
-08
24-F
eb-0
823
-Mar
-08
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
Net
sw
itch
ing
- S
pen
d
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Net Switching to Sainsbury from Somerfield
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
30-D
ec-0
727
-Jan
-08
24-F
eb-0
823
-Mar
-08
20-A
pr-0
818
-May
-08
15-J
un-0
813
-Jul
-08
10-A
ug-0
807
-Sep
-08
05-O
ct-0
802
-Nov
-08
30-N
ov-0
828
-Dec
-08
25-J
an-0
922
-Feb
-09
22-M
ar-0
919
-Apr
-09
17-M
ay-0
914
-Jun
-09
12-J
ul-0
909
-Aug
-09
06-S
ep-0
904
-Oct
-09
Net
sw
itch
ing
- S
pen
d
12 weeks ending
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Sainsbury's strong Repeat and now gaining ‘new’ shoppers – starting to correct price perception?
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
30 D
ec 0
7
27 J
an 0
8
24 F
eb 0
8
23 M
ar 0
8
20 A
pr 0
8
18 M
ay 0
8
15 J
un 0
8
13 J
ul 0
8
10 A
ug 0
8
07 S
ep 0
8
05 O
ct 0
8
02 N
ov 0
8
30 N
ov 0
8
28 D
ec 0
8
25 J
an 0
9
22 F
eb 0
9
22 M
ar 0
9
19 A
pr 0
9
17 M
ay 0
9
14 J
un 0
9
12 J
ul 0
9
09 A
ug 0
9
06 S
ep 0
9
04 O
ct 0
9
Act
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
000,
000s
)
Net New/Lost Repeat Total
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrison Share of Till Roll Grocers
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Morrisons+Safeway Morrisons+Safeway Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrisons Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
-10
-5
0
5
10
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
Store sell-offs
Now stableSustained
growth
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrisons Sales by Promotion Type - 4wkly £m
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
05-N
ov-0
6
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-0
7
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un-0
7
15-J
ul-0
7
12-A
ug-0
7
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-0
7
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-0
8
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un-0
8
13-J
ul-0
8
10-A
ug-0
8
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-0
8
30-N
ov-0
8
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-0
9
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un-0
9
12-J
ul-0
9
09-A
ug-0
9
06-S
ep-0
9
Oct
04
2009
Temporary Price Reductions MultiBuy
Temporary Price Reductions
Multibuy
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Oct
21
20
07
No
v 0
4 2
00
7
No
v 1
8 2
00
7
De
c 0
2 2
00
7
De
c 1
6 2
00
7
De
c 3
0 2
00
7
Jan
13
20
08
Jan
27
20
08
Fe
b 1
0 2
00
8
Fe
b 2
4 2
00
8
Ma
r 0
9 2
00
8
Ma
r 2
3 2
00
8
Ap
r 0
6 2
00
8
Ap
r 2
0 2
00
8
Ma
y 0
4 2
00
8
Ma
y 1
8 2
00
8
Jun
01
20
08
Jun
15
20
08
Jun
29
20
08
Jul 1
3 2
00
8
Jul 2
7 2
00
8
Au
g 1
0 2
00
8
Au
g 2
4 2
00
8
Se
p 0
7 2
00
8
Se
p 2
1 2
00
8
Oct
05
20
08
Oct
19
20
08
No
v 0
2 2
00
8
No
v 1
6 2
00
8
No
v 3
0 2
00
8
De
c 1
4 2
00
8
De
c 2
8 2
00
8
Jan
11
20
09
Jan
25
20
09
Fe
b 0
8 2
00
9
Fe
b 2
2 2
00
9
Ma
r 0
8 2
00
9
Ma
r 2
2 2
00
9
Ap
r 0
5 2
00
9
Ap
r 1
9 2
00
9
Ma
y 0
3 2
00
9
Ma
y 1
7 2
00
9
Ma
y 3
1 2
00
9
Jun
14
20
09
Jun
28
20
09
Jul 1
2 2
00
9
Jul 2
6 2
00
9
Au
g 0
9 2
00
9
Au
g 2
3 2
00
9
Se
p 0
6 2
00
9
Se
p 2
0 2
00
9
Oct
04
20
09
The Best
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrisons Private Label Weekly Sales £m
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Oct
21
20
07
No
v 0
4 2
00
7
No
v 1
8 2
00
7
De
c 0
2 2
00
7
De
c 1
6 2
00
7
De
c 3
0 2
00
7
Jan
13
20
08
Jan
27
20
08
Fe
b 1
0 2
00
8
Fe
b 2
4 2
00
8
Ma
r 0
9 2
00
8
Ma
r 2
3 2
00
8
Ap
r 0
6 2
00
8
Ap
r 2
0 2
00
8
Ma
y 0
4 2
00
8
Ma
y 1
8 2
00
8
Jun
01
20
08
Jun
15
20
08
Jun
29
20
08
Jul 1
3 2
00
8
Jul 2
7 2
00
8
Au
g 1
0 2
00
8
Au
g 2
4 2
00
8
Se
p 0
7 2
00
8
Se
p 2
1 2
00
8
Oct
05
20
08
Oct
19
20
08
No
v 0
2 2
00
8
No
v 1
6 2
00
8
No
v 3
0 2
00
8
De
c 1
4 2
00
8
De
c 2
8 2
00
8
Jan
11
20
09
Jan
25
20
09
Fe
b 0
8 2
00
9
Fe
b 2
2 2
00
9
Ma
r 0
8 2
00
9
Ma
r 2
2 2
00
9
Ap
r 0
5 2
00
9
Ap
r 1
9 2
00
9
Ma
y 0
3 2
00
9
Ma
y 1
7 2
00
9
Ma
y 3
1 2
00
9
Jun
14
20
09
Jun
28
20
09
Jul 1
2 2
00
9
Jul 2
6 2
00
9
Au
g 0
9 2
00
9
Au
g 2
3 2
00
9
Se
p 0
6 2
00
9
Se
p 2
0 2
00
9
Oct
04
20
09
Value The Best
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Latest Quarter Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
12
8
7
7
6
6
5
4
4
-7
-28
Waitrose
Morrisons
Iceland
Asda
Sainsbury
Total Hard Disc
Co-operative
Tot Grocers
Tesco
Tot Indepts
Somerfield12 w/e Oct 4 2009y/y % Change
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Morrisons Turnover Growth 52 w/e Sep 6 2009 - % chg
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Total ABC1 C2DE 16-44 45+
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Morrisons
Broad Areas indexed on Total Groceries
Total Ambient Groceries 103Total Fresh+Chilled 103Total Household 100Total Alcohol 94Total Toiletries 93Total Frozen 89Total Healthcare 86
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fresh Fish 133Chilled Bakery Products 120Canned Goods 115Fresh Meat 112Biscuits 108Chilled Convenience 106Fresh Poultry+Game 104Hot Beverages 104Savoury Home Cooking 103Ambient Bakery Products 103
Trading Indices - Morrisons
Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reasons for Store Choice - Morrisons
146
133
115
108
104
101
100
100
99
97
93
89
70
Like Cafe Restaurant
Has Butchery Counter
Has Fresh Fish Counter
Has A Delicatessen
Has In Store Bakery
Always Low Prices
Good Value For Money
Like Store Layout
Friendly Staff
Good Product Range
Less Queuing
Like Own Label Goods
Sells Clothing+CDs etc
On-line Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Aug 9 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
*20
09
Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV * MAT to June
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Waitrose Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Waitrose Waitrose Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Waitrose Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Waitrose Share IndexI regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine 184I am prepared to pay more for organic food 182I actively seek out fair trade products 148I try to buy environmentally friendly products 127It is important to me what brand I buy 125I try to buy local product whenever I can 125The brand name of the clothes I wear is important to me 121I am more likely to buy a HBA product if it is made of more natural ingredients 121I/my partner enjoy cooking to entertain friends and family 120I have a pastime/hobby that is an important part of my life 119I regularly take active exercise 119I stick with a brand I usually buy than try something I am not very sure of 117If usual item is not available than I buy another size rather than change brands 114I am willing to travel further to shop at the supermarket I prefer 113I restrict how much sugary food I eat 112I often treat myself/family to a meal out 108I try to lead a healthy lifestyle 108The way I look is extremely important to me 107My diet is very important to me 107I regularly use the Internet to find ways to make my life easier 106
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Aug 9 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Organic
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
£m’s
Total Organic Products
Annualised Value = £1bnLatest 12 weeks 12% decline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Organic Indices
442
153
112
100
96
67
63
53
42
39
32
23
12
5
0
Waitrose
Sainsbury
M & S
Tot Grocers
Tesco
Co-operative
Asda
Morrisons
Tot Indepts
Somerfield
Lidl
Aldi
Farm Foods
Netto
Iceland
Share of Organic Indexed onTotal Grocery Share - 52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reasons for Store Choice - Waitrose
139
139
130
116
110
102
100
96
88
85
84
48
38
Has Butchery Counter
Has Fresh Fish Counter
Has A Delicatessen
Less Queuing
Friendly Staff
Like Store Layout
Good Product Range
Like Own Label Goods
Good Value For Money
Has In Store Bakery
Like Cafe Restaurant
Always Low Prices
Sells Clothing+CDs etc
On-line Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Aug 9 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reasons for Store Choice - Low Prices
127
107
105
103
101
100
93
93
86
81
79
48
Asda
Aldi
Tesco
Netto
Morrisons
Lidl
Iceland
Somerfield
Co-operative
Sainsbury
M & S
Waitrose
On-line Questionnaire - Outlet Share Index 52 w/e Aug 9 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices - Waitrose
Broad Area
Market Sector
MarketTotal Fresh+Chilled 127Total Household 89Total Ambient Groceries 88Total Alcohol 88Total Frozen 56Total Toiletries 49Total Healthcare 42
Fresh Fish 223Chilled Bakery Products 178Chilled Drinks 165Chilled Convenience 141Fruit+Veg+Salads 137Fresh Meat 121Fresh Poultry+Game 119Sweet Home Cooking 109Hot Beverages 109Frozen Confectionery 105Packet Breakfast 105Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment 101
Chilled Gravy+Stock 921Fresh Stuffing 875Chilled Olives 533Mixers 452Chilled Prepared Fish 428Chilled Salad Accomps 401Chilled Rice 374Fresh Soup 368Hand Wash Products 334Chilled Pate+Paste+Spread 316Chilled One Shot Drinks 264Fresh Flavoured Meats 257Ambient Olives 255Chilled Cooking Sauces 246Vegetable in Jar 236Chilled Vegetarian 232Wet/Smoked Fish 227Chilled Sausage Meat 227Liquid+Grnd Coffee+Beans 226Complete Dry/Ambient Mls 222
52 w/e Oct 4 2009Fresh Lamb 187
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Hard Discounters Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Aldi / Lidl / Netto Aldi / Lidl / Netto Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
1
2
3
4
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Aldi Lidl Netto
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Kwik Save Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Kwik Save
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Kwik Save + Discounters Combined Market Share £%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-0
6
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un-0
6
16-J
ul-0
6
13-A
ug-0
6
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-0
6
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-0
7
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un-0
7
15-J
ul-0
7
12-A
ug-0
7
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-0
7
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-0
8
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un-0
8
13-J
ul-0
8
10-A
ug-0
8
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-0
8
30-N
ov-0
8
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-0
9
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un-0
9
12-J
ul-0
9
09-A
ug-0
9
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
Kwik Save + Discounters
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Retailer Average Spend Trends
0
10
20
30
40
50
6005
-No
v-06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
AW
P (
£)
Lidl Aldi Netto
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Retailer Penetration Trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
Lidl Aldi Netto
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Aldi
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
30 D
ec 0
7
27 J
an 0
8
24 F
eb 0
8
23 M
ar 0
8
20 A
pr 0
8
18 M
ay 0
8
15 J
un 0
8
13 J
ul 0
8
10 A
ug 0
8
07 S
ep 0
8
05 O
ct 0
8
02 N
ov 0
8
30 N
ov 0
8
28 D
ec 0
8
25 J
an 0
9
22 F
eb 0
9
22 M
ar 0
9
19 A
pr 0
9
17 M
ay 0
9
14 J
un 0
9
12 J
ul 0
9
09 A
ug 0
9
06 S
ep 0
9
04 O
ct 0
9
Act
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
000,
000s
)
Net New/Lost Repeat Total
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Lidl
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7030
Dec
07
27 J
an 0
8
24 F
eb 0
8
23 M
ar 0
8
20 A
pr 0
8
18 M
ay 0
8
15 J
un 0
8
13 J
ul 0
8
10 A
ug 0
8
07 S
ep 0
8
05 O
ct 0
8
02 N
ov 0
8
30 N
ov 0
8
28 D
ec 0
8
25 J
an 0
9
22 F
eb 0
9
22 M
ar 0
9
19 A
pr 0
9
17 M
ay 0
9
14 J
un 0
9
12 J
ul 0
9
09 A
ug 0
9
06 S
ep 0
9
04 O
ct 0
9
Act
ual
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
000,
000s
)
Net New/Lost Repeat Total
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeTotal Hard Discounters
16.9
13.3
12.1
8.9
5.6
5.0
0.2
Total Fresh+Chilled
Total AmbientGroceries
TOTAL GROCERIES
Total Household
Total Alcohol
Total Frozen
Total Toiletries
52 w/e 04 Oct 09
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Somerfield Share of Till Roll Grocers
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Somerfield Somerfield Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Somerfield Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Co-operative Share of Till Roll Grocers
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Total Co-op Total Co-op Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Co-operative Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
26-M
ar-0
6
23-A
pr-
06
21-M
ay-0
6
18-J
un
-06
16-J
ul-
06
13-A
ug
-06
10-S
ep-0
6
08-O
ct-0
6
05-N
ov-
06
03-D
ec-0
6
31-D
ec-0
6
28-J
an-0
7
25-F
eb-0
7
25-M
ar-0
7
22-A
pr-
07
20-M
ay-0
7
17-J
un
-07
15-J
ul-
07
12-A
ug
-07
09-S
ep-0
7
07-O
ct-0
7
04-N
ov-
07
02-D
ec-0
7
30-D
ec-0
7
27-J
an-0
8
24-F
eb-0
8
23-M
ar-0
8
20-A
pr-
08
18-M
ay-0
8
15-J
un
-08
13-J
ul-
08
10-A
ug
-08
07-S
ep-0
8
05-O
ct-0
8
02-N
ov-
08
30-N
ov-
08
28-D
ec-0
8
25-J
an-0
9
22-F
eb-0
9
22-M
ar-0
9
19-A
pr-
09
17-M
ay-0
9
14-J
un
-09
12-J
ul-
09
09-A
ug
-09
06-S
ep-0
9
04-O
ct-0
9
12 w/e Periods
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Co-op / Somerfield Store Sales
Morrisons 38
Sainsbury’s 24
Waitrose 13
Tesco 7
Musgrave 6
Spar 6
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fairtrade Indices
361
300
251
138
100
90
81
78
59
48
35
33
31
18
4
Co-operative
Waitrose
Sainsbury
M & S
Tot Grocers
Tot Indepts
Netto
Farm Foods
Iceland
Lidl
Asda
Morrisons
Tesco
Somerfield
Aldi
Share of Fairtrade Indexed onTotal Grocery Share - Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Measures = Penetration of GB HomesRank 52 w/e 06 Sep 09
Tesco 1 88Asda 2 72Sainsbury 3 69Morrisons 4 63Total Co-operative 5 62M & S 6 59Co-operative 7 46Iceland 8 43Aldi 9 43Lidl 10 42Tot Indepts 11 41Somerfield 12 37Waitrose 13 24Farm Foods 14 18Netto 15 14
Household Penetrations
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
M&S Share of Retailer ShareTrack Grocers
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
M & S M & S Baseline
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trading Indices – M&S
Broad Area
Market Sector
MarketTotal Fresh+Chilled 169Total Ambient Groceries 72Total Alcohol 59Total Frozen 32Total Toiletries 19Total Household 11Total Healthcare 1
Chilled Bakery Products 444Chilled Convenience 439Fresh Fish 349Fresh Poultry+Game 190Biscuits 141Ambient Bakery Products 140Fruit+Veg+Salads 127Chilled Drinks 120Take Home Confectionery 114Frozen Fish 103Fresh Meat 94Take Home Savouries 79
Fresh Stuffing 2399Chilled Gravy+Stock 1384Chilled Prepared Fish 1305Seasonal Biscuits 1141Mens Mass Fragrances 1126Chilled Ready Meals 1006Chilled Sausage Meat 693Chilled Salad Accomps 626Chilled Rice 626Chilled Desserts 590Chilled Cakes 559Ambient Christmas Pudding 558Chilled Prepared Frt+Veg 512Other Chilled Convenience 467Chilled One Shot Drinks 462Chilled Prepared Salad 456Chilled Burgers+Grills 410P/P Fresh Meat+Veg+Pastry 402Fresh Flavoured Meats 381Canned Hot Meats 348
52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % changeM&S
23.1
6.1
4.1
0.8
-0.3
-3.5
-6.1
Total Toiletries
Total Alcohol
Total Household
Total Fresh+Chilled
TOTAL GROCERIES
Total Frozen
Total AmbientGroceries
52 w/e 04 Oct 09
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Share of Total Grocers - Fresh+Chilled
30.8
18.1
15.6
12.3
6.1
5.3
5.3
4.0
2.1
1.9
1.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
30.3
18.1
15.9
12.7
5.8
5.2
5.2
3.2
2.4
2.1
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.3
Tesco
Sainsbury
Asda
Morrisons
M & S
Waitrose
Co-operative
Somerfield
Aldi
Lidl
Iceland
Tot Indepts
Netto
Farm Foods
52 w/e 05 Oct 08 52 w/e 04 Oct 09
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Trended Loyalty Breakdown
53.7 53.6 53.4
17.0 13.5 11.70%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
07-Oct-07 05-Oct-08 04-Oct-09 07-Oct-07 05-Oct-08 04-Oct-0952 w/e periods
High Loyal (>50%) Medium Loyal (>20%) Low Loyal (>0%)
Waitrose % M&S %
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
The Retailer Strategies
Tesco – Fighting Back
Asda – back to Price
Sainsbury – Value & Values
Morrisons – Moving Nationwide
Waitrose – The Ethical consumer
Discounters – It's their time?
M&S - Flawed Model
Home Delivery
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Home Delivery Share of Till Roll Grocers
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
No
v 05
200
6
Dec
03
2006
Dec
31
2006
Jan
28
2007
Feb
25
2007
Mar
25
2007
Ap
r 22
200
7
May
20
2007
Jun
17
2007
Jul 1
5 20
07
Au
g 1
2 20
07
Sep
09
2007
Oct
07
2007
No
v 04
200
7
Dec
02
2007
Dec
30
2007
Jan
27
2008
Feb
24
2008
Mar
23
2008
Ap
r 20
200
8
May
18
2008
Jun
15
2008
Jul 1
3 20
08
Au
g 1
0 20
08
Sep
07
2008
Oct
05
2008
No
v 02
200
8
No
v 30
200
8
Dec
28
2008
Jan
25
2009
Feb
22
2009
Mar
22
2009
Ap
r 19
200
9
May
17
2009
Jun
14
2009
Jul 1
2 20
09
Au
g 0
9 20
09
Sep
06
2009
Oct
04
2009
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
Sh
are
(E
xp
en
dit
ure
)
Tesco Internet Sainsbury Internet Asda Internet Waitrose+Ocado Internet
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Internet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Pre-Family YoungFamily 0-4
Years
MiddleFamily 5-9
Years
Family 10+Years
OlderDependents
EmptyNesters
Retired
52 w/e Oct 07 2007 52 w/e Oct 05 2008 52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Lifestage Signatures Outlet Share within Demographic Group
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Grocery Internet
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
£0 - £9999pa
£10000 -£19999 pa
£20000 -£29999 pa
£30000 -£39999 pa
£40000 -£49999 pa
£50000 -£59999 pa
£60000 -£69999 pa
£70000 +
52 w/e Oct 07 2007 52 w/e Oct 05 2008 52 w/e Oct 04 2009
Household Income Signatures Outlet Share within Demographic Group
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Till Roll - Duplication by Tesco Internet Buyers
9.6
5.2
2.2
72.0
7.3
29.9
32.2
23.5
436
400
314
111
76
73
72
61
Asda Internet
Sainsbury's Internet
Waitrose Internet
Tesco
Waitrose
Sainsbury's
Asda
Morrisons
Buyers also Buying Duplication Index8 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Total Internet Share Index
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e Jun 14 2009
I think I will be doing more of my grocery shopping online in the future 549I am always under time pressure when I do grocery shopping 195I regularly use the Internet to find ways to make my life easier 181I am prepared to pay more for organic food 172My style is influenced by celebrities or people I see in TV or in magazines 165I try to give my children healthy meals 161I am actively encouraging my children to have a more active lifestyle 161My children eat what I eat 160I have little time to myself 157People in my household like to have the latest technology available 157I feel I spend enough quality time with my children 155I regularly use different types of media to keep up with the latest fashion trends 152I work to a strict budget when I'm buying groceries 151I rely heavily on convenience products to make cooking simple/quick 149Members of my household often influence the brands and products that I buy 148I tend to give my children what they want for their meals 148I am always looking out for health & beauty products with new added benefits 145I make a shopping list before I go out and stick to it 141The nutritional labeling on food & drink products has an effect on what I buy 140If usual product is unavailable than I buy another size rather than change brands 139
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Lamb
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fresh Lamb Indices
187
154
136
97
96
95
68
66
32
15
12
11
2
2
Waitrose
Sainsbury
Somerfield
Morrisons
Tesco
Asda
M & S
Co-operative
Tot Indepts
Farm Foods
Iceland
Lidl
Netto
Aldi
Outlet Share Index52 w/e Oct 4 2009
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fresh Lamb: Price YOY versus Volume YOYA key relationship between price increases and Lamb volume
movements can be seen. Lamb shoppers are price sensitive
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
12 W
/e 3
0 Dec
07
12 W
/e 2
7 Ja
n 08
12 W
/e 2
4 Feb
08
12 W
/e 2
3 M
ar 0
8
12 W
/e 2
0 Apr 0
8
12 W
/e 1
8 M
ay 0
8
12 W
/e 1
5 Ju
n 08
12 W
/e 1
3 Ju
l 08
12 W
/e 1
0 Aug
08
12 W
/e 0
7 Sep
08
12 W
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 W
/e 0
2 Nov
08
12 W
/e 3
0 Nov
08
12 W
/e 2
8 Dec
08
12 W
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 W
/e 2
2 Feb
09
12 W
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 W
/e 1
9 Apr 0
9
12 W
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 W
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 W
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 W
/e 0
9 Aug
09
12 W
/e 0
6 Sep
09
12 W
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
YO
Y %
Ch
ang
e
Vol Kg Change Price Kg Change
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Fresh Red Meat Sector PerformanceLamb, followed by Beef see the greatest volume declines. Pork volume sales remain relatively static
6.1 6.0
1.0
-3.4
-0.1
-5.5
Beef Pork Lamb
Spend YOY Volume YOY
52 w/e 4th October 2009 versus Yr Ago
Fresh Red Meat Sector SharesBeef has the largest shares, but loses volume share. Pork has
second largest share and gains, whilst Lamb loses market share
54.9 55.4 52.8 52.4
25.2 25.5 29.1 29.8
18.0 17.3 14.7 14.3
3.3 3.41.81.9
Spend 08 Spend 09 Volume 08 Volume 09
Other Meat+Offal
Lamb
Pork
Beef
52 w/e 4th October 2009 versus Yr Ago
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Reminders
TescoFighting Back
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Backto
Price
Reminders
TescoFighting Back
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
TescoFighting Back
Value&
Values
Reminders
Backto
Price
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
MovingNationwide
TescoFighting Back
Reminders
Backto
Price
Value&
Values
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
TescoFighting Back
Reminders
TheEthical
Consumer
Backto
Price
Value&
ValuesMovingNationwide
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
It's their time?
TescoFighting Back
Reminders
Backto
Price
Value&
ValuesMovingNationwide
TheEthical
Consumer
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
It's their time?
TescoFighting Back
Reminders
Backto
Price
Value&
ValuesMovingNationwide
TheEthical
Consumer
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
It's their time?
TescoFighting Back
Reminders
Backto
Price
Value&
ValuesMovingNationwide
TheEthical
Consumer
© WorldpanelTM division of TNS 2009
Thank you
ed.garner
@tns-global.com