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Towards the Future of IT
does the path lead through the cloud?
Lutz Schubert,Institute of Information Resource Management, University of UlmHigh Performance Computing Center Stuttgart
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A LITTLE HISTORY LESSONThe Future of Information Technology
“Where we cannot invent, we may at least improve.”Charles Caleb Colton
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Introducing Load Balancing
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Uptake of Outsourcing
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Uptake of the Internetnumber of users
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The Grid & Clouds
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grids & clouds
???
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Uptake of the Internet number of users
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grids & clouds
sma
rt p
ho
ne
s
GP
GP
Us mu
ltic
ore
s
heterogeneity
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At the same time…
• The value of internet services keeps growing…
Source: http://www.atkearney.com/paper/-/asset_publisher/dVxv4Hz2h8bS/content/internet-value-chain-economics/10192
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The Trend ContinuesStrong Increase
• Mobility• Heterogeneity• Amount of Data• #Users
Less Increase• Performance• Communication• Storage
(User) Expectations• Availability• Speed• Cost• Ease of use
• More users (only 25% online now)
• More devices (also the washing machine goes online)
• More mobility, within and across borders
• More global usage
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THE PROBLEMSA Quick Report from The Cloud Expert Group
“All change is not growth; as all movement is not forward.”Ellen Glasgow
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/future-cc-2may-finalreport-experts.pdf
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#1 Higher Availability through Dynamicity
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#1 BUT Availability ≠ Speed
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#1 Availability ≠ Speed
1 kB ~2ms*1 GB ~10 mins*1 TB ~1 week*
*purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc.
1 kB ~0.1 s*1 GB ~1 day*1 TB ~2 years*
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#2 Dynamicity vs. Security?
Help, my data is in China?
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#3 The Whole Application Moves
1 kB ~2ms*1 GB ~10 mins*1 TB ~1 week*
*purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc.
1 kB ~0.1 s*1 GB ~1 day*1 TB ~2 years*
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#3 each part exhibits different needs…
1 kB ~2ms*1 GB ~10 mins*1 TB ~1 week*
1 kB ~0.1 s*1 GB ~1 day*1 TB ~2 years*
frequently accesseddata
rarelyaccesseddata
consistency?
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#3 … use them
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#3 … use them
• Reduced resource cost– Not all application parts need to scale out fully (less resources)– Faster adaptation time (better dynamicity)– The individual requirements are lower (simpler resources)
• Higher customer satisfaction– Better fulfillment of availability etc.– Trust & security through hybrid (public-private) clouds
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#pragma func main() = heatspread( initmap( heatmap ) )
} #pragma func heatspread(heatmap) =
zipWith (+) (heatcell( neighbours(heatmap) )) (heatmap)
}
Specifies input data dependencies
Specifies output dependencies
Specifies workflow
double heatmap[10]; double heatmap_tmp[10];
void main() { initmap(*heatmap); for (int iter=0; iter<100; iter++) // 100 iterations { heatspread(*heatmap); memcpy(heatmap, heatmap_tmp, 10) } }
void heatspread (double** heatmap) { for (int x=0; x<10; y++) { double dphi = heatcell( neighbours(heatmap, x) ); heatmap_tmp[x] = heatmap[x] + dphi; } } ...
#4 Programmability
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#5 Federation / Cloud-Bursting
?
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CONCLUSIONS
“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”Charles F. Kettering
http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/cloud-expert-group/roadmap-dec2012-vfinal.pdf
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federated & merged clouds
auto-composition
demanding services on the fly
carry your environment
short term mid term long term
Cloud Development Roadmap
new re
sour
ces
BYOD
pers
onali
satio
n
globa
lisat
ion
serv
ice-c
entri
c
huge
dat
a
exas
cale
new IT
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The Future is Cloudy?
• Future environments are– Even more heterogeneous on all levels (specialisation)– Even more widely dispersed (global mobility)– Large scale with little performance per unit (multicore)– Demanding more complex usage scenarios
Clouds are a first reaction to this paradigm change They are not the FINAL solution But they are a necessary transition into the future
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THANKS FOR
LISTENING
Lutz SchubertInstitute of Resource Management, University of [email protected]
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#4 Programmability (2)
① ②
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#4 Programmability (2)
②
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#4 Programmability (2)
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#4 Programmability (2)
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