© crown copyright met office climate change adaptation dr matt huddleston, principal consultant –...
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Climate Change AdaptationDr Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant – Climate Change
The Guardian Climate Change Summit 2008
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Current emissions
Michael Raupach et al., June 2007
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CO2e Stern (based on Meinhausen)
Met Office Hadley Centre
450 ppm 25 77% 77%
550 ppm 65-99% 99%
650 ppm 80-99% 99%
What are the chances of exceeding 2 and 4ºC above pre-industrial levels if we stabilise greenhouse gases?
Can we avoid dangerous climate change?
CO2e Stern (based on Meinhausen)
Met Office Hadley Centre
450 ppm 1-30% 3%
550 ppm 5 52% 25%
650 ppm 15 66% 60%
4ºC
- 75%
- 50%
- 65%
2ºC
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The record temperatures of summer 2003 could become a bi-annual event by 2040
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© Crown copyright 2007
Climate resilience
Informing on changing risks is essential
What is known and knowable?
Creating a climate of confidence
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Risks in your languageTransport & Network Rail
• Probability of heavy rain as defined by Network Rail
• Background of rail regions
• Chart designed specially to be received by field engineers on Blackberries
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Reacting to the impacts: Finance
Seasonal climate forecasts and historical data blended for view of near future.
Risk assessment informed in multi-billion pound decision.
Risk-based climate analysis –Protecting investments
Tailored forecast of UK drought risk 2006/07
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© Crown copyright 2007
© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright 2005
EP2: The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Energy Industry
Exploring risks – Reducing exposure
Increasing resilience
Met Office working with:
EDF Energy, EON, C.E. Electric, Centrica, National Grid, Northern Ireland Electricity, npower, Scottish Power, Scottish and Southern Energy, United Utilities, Western Power Distribution
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Essential forecasts for everyone, every dayMet Office