АСТАНА - июль  2 0 0 9 г.

THE KAZSTEM MACROECONOMICAL FORECASTING MODEL OF KAZAKHSTAN

Aidarkhanova Bibigul

REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

JSC “Economic Research Institute” Center for macroeconomical analysis and

forecasting Department of Short-term Forecasting

The content of the presentationThe content of the presentation

I. The main macroeconomical indicators and the influence of the world financial crisis to the economy of Kazakhstan

II. The state planning and forecasting system in Kazakhstan

III. The Kazakhstan KazSTEM short-term and medium-term forecasting macroeconomical model in the econometric G7 package

IV. The forecasting blocks of the model and the forecasts of the main macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014

V. “The short-term quarterly based forecast of the macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan for 2009” quarterly bulletin

VI. III Astana Economic Forum

I. The Dynamics of GDP of the Kazakhstan 2000-2008

2 59

9.9

3 25

0.6

3 77

6.3

4 61

2.0

5 87

0.1 7 59

0.6

10 2

13.7 12

849

.8

15 9

36.5

109.8

113.5

109.8 109.3 109.6110.7

108.9

103.3

117.4

110.2

105.9

111.7

116.1117.9

121.5

115.5

120.0

109.7

0.0

2 000.0

4 000.0

6 000.0

8 000.0

10 000.0

12 000.0

14 000.0

16 000.0

18 000.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

GDP, bln. tenge Real growth, % Deflator, %

As it is clear from this figure, main current account components of the previous year except for the trade balance, show negative dynamics.

Significant improvement of balance of current operations in 2008 was guarantied by export growth and surge in oil price. Taking into account that oil prices sharply declined, the current account in 2009 is expected to be negative (prognosis was done on basis of scenarios of $50 per barrel of Brent). Devaluation of tenge should promote some improvement of current account deficit.

I. The current account of the Kazakhstan

*

* 2009 - forecast by the ERI

financial activity

(monetary intermediation)

32,2%

geological survey and

search23,6%

civil engineering

5,0%manufacturing

5,0%

retail trade5,0%

crude oil and gas extraction

12,9%

other industries

16,3%

The analysis of the foreign investment structure in Kazakhstan shows that the most attractive sectors are: financial activity (monetary intermediation) – 32.2% of total foreign investment (FDI and portfolio), geological survey and search – 23.6%, crude oil and gas extraction – 12.9%, manufacturing, civil engineering, retail trade – 5% each.

The analysis of the foreign investment structure in Kazakhstan shows that the most attractive sectors are: financial activity (monetary intermediation) – 32.2% of total foreign investment (FDI and portfolio), geological survey and search – 23.6%, crude oil and gas extraction – 12.9%, manufacturing, civil engineering, retail trade – 5% each.

Foreign investment inclined primarily to the oil&gas sectorI. Foreign investment inclined primarily to the oil & gas sector

II. The state planning and forecasting system in Kazakhstan

A state planning system of the Republic of Kazakhstan

A strategic plan of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 10 years. A forecasting schedule of the territory development of the country

A development strategy of Kazakhstan for 2030

State programs for 5-10 years

A forecast of social-economic development for 5 years

Territory development programs for 5 years

Strategic plans of the authorities for 5 years

Development strategies for 10 years and development plans of the national managing holdings, national holdings, national companies with state share in nominal capital

Industry programs

Republic (local) budget for 3 years

III. Macroeconomic forecasting model KazSTEM

*

KazSTEM macroeconomic model was designed by ERI to Kazakhstan’s economy

KazSTEM macroeconomic forecasting model is based on the econometric regressions stemming in the econometric G7 application

The model is the quarterly macroeconomic econometric model depicting the interrelations of basis macroeconomic indicators in Kazakhstan

Statistical base is constantly updated as data from official sources such as RK Statistics Agency, National Bank of Kazakhstan, Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning, other ministries’ web sites are available.

The model is designed to create forecast calculations for the short- and medium-term perspectives

Scenario variants of the forecasts depend on the changes in exogenous variables.

III. Modules of the forecasting model KazSTEMIII. Modules of the forecasting model KazSTEM

*

Currently, the following forecasting modules are developed under the macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan:

GDP by production

GDP by consumption Monetary

relations module

Macroeconomic forecasting model of Kazakhstan in the G7 econometrical package

Fiscal relations module

Social relations

Balance of Payments

GDP by revenues

IV. Forecast of GDP by production IV. Forecast of GDP by production Base, optimistic, pessimistic scenariosBase, optimistic, pessimistic scenarios

bln. tengeIndicators 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gross domestic product14609.1 15254.0 15732.3 16875.6 18100.2 19378.1

15054.2 16619.8 18306.2 20131.4 21958.0 23864.4

15480.5 17535.2 19488.4 21663.0 23865.0 26166.4

Agriculture925.7 904.4 930.5 958.4 1008.9 1060.9948.8 955.1 1017.3 1071.8 1147.0 1211.7

1005.7 980.6 1045.4 1102.5 1182.2 1251.7

Industry3446.9 3469.7 3352.9 3612.3 3853.8 4091.43728.5 4165.9 4670.2 5116.0 5502.3 5900.73935.7 4676.9 5269.4 5881.7 6378.9 6870.9

Construction1275.9 1232.3 1277.0 1405.2 1571.4 1732.51313.4 1382.5 1515.4 1708.1 1931.1 2151.01343.6 1385.2 1535.3 1736.4 1971.3 2202.5

Trade2051.0 2354.2 2538.6 2780.2 3053.5 3376.12086.7 2524.6 2882.7 3292.9 3709.3 4184.92129.4 2560.1 2957.1 3394.4 3853.2 4370.4

Hotels and restaurant168.3 186.4 199.9 214.9 231.8 250.4170.0 193.8 221.3 251.3 283.6 318.3171.7 199.7 232.3 272.4 320.6 374.6

Transport 1259.0 1343.6 1372.0 1423.0 1475.8 1539.41278.8 1459.3 1559.0 1669.1 1772.0 1891.61297.5 1460.8 1576.9 1705.5 1828.8 1970.3

Communication380.3 368.7 380.6 401.3 428.7 461.0384.0 399.8 439.6 485.7 535.6 590.2387.9 400.9 448.3 509.9 583.5 664.6

Financial activities773.8 914.1 852.7 889.4 951.4 1012.4809.2 1047.5 1131.4 1264.3 1403.0 1528.5835.6 1060.4 1174.2 1322.3 1479.2 1617.7

Real estate activities2713.4 2932.9 3119.5 3334.7 3558.1 3781.72723.0 2949.1 3207.1 3503.8 3809.8 4119.62739.5 3087.8 3402.8 3767.5 4175.1 4617.6

Government administration315.2 339.8 375.9 410.0 441.2 471.2316.2 341.6 386.7 433.7 478.8 523.1317.2 388.5 443.3 499.8 555.0 610.0

Education546.3 510.1 533.7 559.1 586.2 615.2548.1 511.7 537.4 564.5 593.3 623.9567.2 586.6 616.9 649.3 683.5 720.2

Healthcare283.0 253.7 260.8 268.7 277.9 287.7283.2 255.8 264.6 273.4 283.5 294.0286.4 296.1 308.1 318.7 330.9 343.9

V. “The short-term quarterly based forecast of the macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan for 2009” quarterly bulletin

The Middle-term forecasting department of the Center of macroeconomical analysis and

forecasting of the Economic research institute begins to publish «The short-term quarterly

based forecast of the macroeconomical indicators of Kazakhstan to a 2009 year» quarterly

bulletin since July the 1-st of 2009.

At September the 1-st of 2009 the №2 publication of the quarterly bulletin has been published

The structure of the bulletin includes the following sections:

1. The scenario conditions and the key hypotheses

2. The world economy

3. The world commodity markets

4. The results of forecasting and analytical calculations of the base blocks of KazSTEM model

4.1. GDP by production method

4.2. GDP by consumption method

4.3. Inflation

4.4. Monetary relations sector

5. Appendix: accuracy estimation of the forecasts of the bulletin №1

The Ministry of economy and budget planning of the Republic of Kazakhstan and other

interested authorities get the quarterly bulletin.

The development of the forecasting blocks of the quarterly bulletin is being further planned.

V. Quarterly forecast of GDP by production to a 2009 year

(to corresponding period of previous year)

Indicators UnitActual data

Base Optimistic Pessimisticforecast forecast forecast

1 quarter half year 9 months year 9 months year 9 months year

Gross domestic productBillion tenge 3 055.3 6 446.3 10 716.8 15 054.2 10 932.3 15 480.5 10 509.6 14 609.1

Real growth 97.8% 97.7% 98.8% 99.0% 99.3% 99.8% 98.4% 98.3%

AgricultureBillion tenge 82.0 211.2 735.9 948.8 775.1 1 005.7 721.0 925.7

Real growth 103.6% 102.5% 103.5% 103.6% 103.6% 103.7% 103.3% 103.5%

IndustryBillion tenge 876.9 1 845.9 2 738.0 3 728.5 2 833.2 3 935.7 2 608.8 3 446.9

Real growth 95.2% 97.5% 98.4% 97.7% 98.9% 98.7% 98.0% 96.8%

ConstructionBillion tenge 179.9 449.1 917.0 1 313.4 925.7 1 343.6 896.2 1 275.9

Real growth 93.4% 90.2% 94.5% 95.1% 95.4% 97.0% 92.4% 92.6%

TradeBillion tenge 445.0 909.3 1 479.2 2 086.7 1 497.5 2 129.4 1 468.9 2 051.0

Real growth 94.7% 96.4% 97.3% 96.3% 98.3% 97.6% 96.7% 95.3%

Hotels and restaurantBillion tenge 38.8 69.9 121.6 170.0 122.6 171.7 120.9 168.3

Real growth 104.0% 103.3% 106.4% 106.8% 106.7% 107.2% 106.3% 106.6%

TransportBillion tenge 238.6 529.8 902.6 1 278.8 912.2 1 297.5 893.0 1 259.0

Real growth 95.0% 88.3% 89.1% 91.7% 89.6% 92.5% 88.8% 91.2%

CommunicationBillion tenge 86.2 160.9 220.0 384.0 227.0 387.9 215.0 380.3

Real growth 104.2% 103.6% 106.2% 103.5% 106.8% 104.4% 105.7% 102.5%

Financial activitiesBillion tenge 188.4 361.2 581.3 809.2 584.2 835.6 578.8 773.8

Real growth 107.1% 106.7% 107.6% 106.6% 108.1% 107.4% 107.1% 105.8%

Real estate activitiesBillion tenge 648.4 1 224.4 1 925.4 2 723.0 1 939.8 2 739.5 1 920.2 2 713.4

Real growth 103.8% 102.8% 104.3% 104.5% 104.8% 104.8% 104.2% 104.4%

Government administrationBillion tenge 70.2 174.5 240.1 316.2 240.4 317.2 239.7 315.2

Real growth 109.3% 107.3% 104.5% 105.2% 104.6% 105.4% 104.4% 105.0%

EducationBillion tenge 132.6 241.1 373.1 548.1 382.7 567.2 372.2 546.3

Real growth 101.9% 101.9% 102.1% 102.2% 102.3% 102.7% 101.9% 102.0%

HealthcareBillion tenge 70.0 145.8 213.3 283.2 214.4 286.4 213.2 283.0

Real growth 99.5% 103.8% 101.3% 102.1% 101.4% 103.0% 101.2% 101.0%

Other servicesBillion tenge 61.4 137.1 231.0 340.3 233.5 343.4 230.9 340.0

Real growth 103.1% 104.0% 102.7% 101.3% 102.8% 101.4% 102.6% 101.2%

FISIMBillion tenge -200.5 -347.7 -531.8 -668.4 -534.1 -687.3 -529.9 -643.0

Real growth 107.7% 108.4% 109.4% 107.3% 109.8% 107.9% 109.0% 106.6%

Taxes on products and importBillion tenge 137.4 333.9 570.1 792.4 578.1 807.0 560.7 773.3

Real growth 96.4% 96.5% 96.2% 96.9% 96.3% 97.0% 96.1% 96.7%

V. Control of the forecast of the bulletinV. Control of the forecast of the bulletin №1 №1

Indicators

Nominal value Share, % Real growth, %

Fact 13.08.09

Forecast 01.07. 09

Difference,

мln.tenge

Fact 13.08.09

Forecast 01.07. 09

Difference

Fact 13.08.09

Forecast01.07. 09

Difference, %

mln. tenge % %

GDP 6 446.3 6 945.5 -499.2 100.0 100.0 - 97.7 97.7 0.0

Production of goods 2 506.2 2 828.4 -322.2 39.0 40.7 -1.7 96.7 95.6 1.1

Agriculture 211.2 219.8 -8.6 3.3 3.2 0.1 102.5 103.5 -1.0

Indusrty 1 845.9 2 106.3 -260.4 28.7 30.3 -1.6 97.5 95.6 1.9

Construstion 449.1 502.3 -53.2 7.0 7.2 -0.2 90.2 93.1 -2.9

Production of services 3 953.9 4 143.5 -189.6 61.3 59.7 1.6 99.7 99.6 0.1

FISIM -347.7 -383.6 35.9 -5.4 -5.5 0.1 108.4 103.3 5.1

GVA 6112.4 6 588.3 -475.9 94.9 94.9 0.0 97.8 97.7 0.1

Other tax 333.9 357.4 -23.5 5.1 5.1 0.0 96.5 99.7 -3.2

The summary of current economic indicators

  20082009

(estim)2010

(forecast)

Nominal GDP, KZT trillion 16.0 15.1 16.7

in US dollars 132.8 100.4 110.8

GDP per capita, US dollars 8502.9 6322.8 6918.0

Real GDP growth, % 3.2 -1.0 2.6

Inflation, annual, % 9.5 8.4 6.8

Unemployment rate, % 6.6 7.2 7.1

Trade balance, US dollars 33.5 8.5 7.8

Exports of goods, USD billion 72.0 39.2 49.6

Imports of goods, USD billion 38.5 30.7 41.7

Current Account, USD billion 7.0 -6.8 -4.7

Refinancing rate, % 10.5 7.5 7.5

Exchange rate, annual average, KZT/USD 120.6 150.0 150.0

Kazakhstan: summary of the current economic indicatorsV. Kazakhstan: summary of the current economic indicators

Basic scenarioBasic scenario

VI. III VI. III ASTANA ECONOMIC FORUM

Theme: «Crisis Lessons and Post-Crisis Model of Economic Development in Globalization Conditions».

The work of the Forum will be focused on the following themes:

Anti-crisis governmental regulations of economy and the new models of post crisis development. Formation and development of innovative economy. Formation of new world financial architecture. Increasing competitiveness of countries. Development of public private partnerships under globalization.

The Award for the Best Research in the Field of Economics will be organized. Internet-forum will be held at the web-site www.economyclub.info with the aim to unite the efforts of scientists-economists from all over the world for working-out of a post - crisis model of economic development in conditions of globalization during the period of July 1, 2009 - May 1, 2010.

The leading scientific research institutes, centers, international organizations, and scientists, politicians and representatives of the business community are invited to take part in the work of the

III Astana Economic Forum

July 5-7, 2010

Thank you for

attention!