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Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
HOME
• Cotton • Sugar • Soyben • RM Seed • Castor seed • Turmeric • Jeera
NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S
Cotton | Soybean | RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• As per government’s sowing report, till 13 July 2018 cotton has been
sown in 77.50 lakh ha, 14.72% lower than 90.88 lakh ha sown last year
till date & 6.53% lower than normal area of 82.91 lakh ha on date. Cotton
sowing is lagging as the main growing region of Saurashtra in Gujarat
has received deficient rainfall till now.
• On 4 July 2018, the MSP of cotton (medium staple) was increased by
28.11% to Rs 5,150 from Rs 4,020 and that of cotton (long staple) 26.11%
to Rs 5,450 from 4,320 per quintal.
• The MSP hike & higher price realisation are expected to incentivize
farmers to increase cotton sowing which is expected to pick up in July.
• In the recent years, it has been witnessed that the MSP announced for
Indian cotton acts as a price floor for global cotton as well, given India’s
status as the largest cotton producer. Thus, higher cotton prices may
to an extent support dwindling cotton output in the world.
• However, cotton MSP hike would make local fibre relatively expensive
compared with international prices and inflate cotton products’ prices.
• India's cotton exports are expected to jump 43% to 10 million bales in
2018-19 MY on strong overseas demand, especially from China.
• A sharp increase in import demand from China likely over the next two-
three years due to lower production and low buffer stock. China has
imposed a 25% tax on US imports of cotton, and shipments from India
are consequently expected to see a boost this year and may increase to
30-40 lakh bales in the next MY from 10 lakh bales this year.
• With the festive season ahead, demand for yarn in home markets
should be stable too. Thus, demand for cotton will stay strong.
• Cotton is currently trading higher than the new price floor (MSP).
• The CAI has estimated India’s cotton production for 2017-18 at 365 lakh
bales against 337.25 lakh bales last year. The carry-over stock at the end
of the 2017-18 crop year is estimated at only 16 la bales against 30 la
bales at end of last year, due to high domestic and export demand.
• NCML estimates 2018-19 cotton production at 375 lakh bales, higher
than 365 bales in 2017-18, due to expectation of higher acreage & yields.
• As per the July USDA report, the 2017-18 world cotton production is
pegged at 123.69 mn bales (of 480 pounds) against 106.63 mn bales in
2016-17. The 2018-19 production is estimated at 120.40 mn bales.
• USDA has pegged China’s 2018-19 cotton production at 26.50 mn bales
against 27.50 mn bales in 2017-18 and 22.75 mn bales in 2016-17.
Mandi Price in Rs/Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Kadi 29 mm 13498.3 13287.4 1.59
Rajkot (29 mm) 13631.9 13465.5 1.24
Abohar 12178.8 12012.5 1.38
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Expected increase in cotton acreage for 2018-19 due to MSP hike and high price realisation
Bearish
Slow progress of sowing due to rainfall deficit in Saurashtra and longer lean season likely
Bullish
Higher exports expected, particularly to China which has high cotton demand and has imposes tariff on US cotton products
Bullish
Low closing stocks at end of current season
Bullish
Firm domestic demand due to festive season ahead
Bullish
Lower world cotton production expected in 2018-19
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Mar
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Cotton - 29 mm - RajkotCOTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA
INDIA: COTTON BALANCE SHEET, SEASON 2016-17 & 2017-18
Details 2017-18 2016-17
(in la b/s) (in la b/s)
Opening Stock 30.00 36.50
Crop 365.00 337.25
Imports 15.00 27.00
Total Supply 410.00 400.75
Mill Consumption 280.00 265.00
Consumption by SSI Units 29.00 27.00
Non- Mill Consumption 15.00 15.75
Total Domestic Demand 324.00 307.75
Available Surplus 86.00 93.00
Exports 70.00 63.00
Closing Stock 16.00 30.00
COTTON
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• On 4 July 2018, the government raised the MSP of soybean by 11.44% to
Rs 3399 per quintal from Rs 3050 per quintal.
• Soybean sowing has rapidly picked up over the last fortnight. As per the
sowing report, soybean acreage till 13 July 2018 reached 76.50 lakh ha,
3.57% higher than 73.87 lakh ha sown last year till same date and 2.40%
higher than normal till date. High price realisation against competitive
crop and MSP increase supported soybean acreage.
• India’s 2017-18 soybean output is pegged by SOPA at 83.5 lakh tonne,
about 24% lower than 109 lakh tonnes in the previous year. NCML
estimates the output to rise 20% from last year. The carry forward stock
projected to be only one lakh tonne at the end of oil year 2017-18.
• On 13 July 2018, DGFT raised raised the incentive on soymeal under
Merchandise Export from Indian Scheme (MEIS) from 7% to 10% which
would make India’s export more competitive in international markets.
• Indian government had earlier hiked the import duty on crude soy oil
from 30% to 35% while on refined soy oil it was hiked to 35% to 45% to
curb cheaper imports and give positive price signals to farmers.
• US soybean futures have fallen nearly 20% since China announced to
slap a 25% tariff on US soybeans. Further, China slashed the import duty
on soybean from India from 3% to zero, amid the US-China trade war
which gives an opportunity to India to export even as Chinese demand
soybean is being met largely by Brazil.
• US on the other hand is exporting to Argentina which faced a draoght
this season and registered major fall in its production.
• Argentina saw a 32.7% production drop in 2017/18 with production at 37
MMT against 55 MMT in 2016-17. Crush demands are forecast to double
soybean imports to 4 MMT in 2017/18. For 2018-19, Argentina’s
production is pegged to recover to 57 MMT.
• Brazil has seen a record soybean harvest in 2017-18. Brazil’s production
for 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 is pegged at 114.60 MMT, 119.50 MMT
and 120.50 MMT respectively.
• As per the July USDA report, 2018/19 global soybean production is
projected to recover to 359.49 MMT, after falling to 336.70 MMT in
2017/18 from 348.12 MMT in 2016/17. US 2018-19 harvest is pegged at
117.30 MMT against 119.52 MMT last year and 116.92 MMT in 2016-17.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Indore 3553 3647 -2.58
Kota 3474.75 3588.15 -3.16
Nagpur 3661.25 3749.65 -2.36
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Higher soybean acreage for 2018-19 Bearish
Slashing of import duty on Indian soybean by China
Bullish
Incentive on soymeal under MEIS raised from 7% to 10%
Bullish
Increase in import duty on Soy oil Bullish
Tight domestic supply position with low ending stocks amidst firm demand
Bullish
World soybean production projected to recover in 2018-19 due to favourable conditions in the soybean growing regions
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2700
2980
3260
3540
3820
4100
4380
De
c-15
Mar
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Soybean Indore
SOYBEAN
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Clearance to genetically modified (GM) mustard for commercial release
appears to delay as the developer of this transgenic variety of oilseed won't
be able to do field demonstrations, required for the final nod, before this
year's winter crop (rabi) season.
• According to the latest report of USDA, World production estimate of
rapeseed is estimated at 72.44 million MT for 2018-19 which is 3.09 per cent
lower than the production estimate of 74.75 million MT of 2017-18. The
rapeseed crop forecast is significantly lower this month on reductions
production forecast for Australia, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine.
• According the latest report of Nafed, as on 12th July 2018, mustard seed
procurement has reached 8.71 lakh metric tonnes. Of the total quantity
procured, around 4.71 lakh tonnes have been procured from Rajasthan,
2.27 lakh tonnes from Haryana, 1.19 lakh tonnes from Madhya Pradesh, 0.52
lakh tonnes have been procured from Gujarat, 0.01 lakh tonnes in Uttar
Pradesh and 0.005 lakh tonnes in West Bengal.
• India’s rapeseed oil imports in the month of May 2018 is 22.03 thousand MT
which is 19.94 percent lower than the import of April 2018 of 27.52
thousand MT.
• Total imports of rapeseed oil from November 2017 to May 2018 were 1.841
lakh MT which is slightly higher than last year imports of 1.812 lakh MT in
the same time period. Despite increase in import duty on rapeseed oil,
imports have increased due to higher domestic prices.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of June 2018 were 54.191
thousand MT (provisional), lower by 53.20 per cent against 133.916
thousand MT in May 2018. Average FoB price of meal in June is recorded at
$227 per tonne which is lower than average price of $223 per tonne in the
month of May.
• According to latest update from SEA of India, the total production of
mustard seed in the current year is estimated at 6.33 million metric tonnes
which is 3.72 per cent lower than the last year production estimate of 6.575
million MT.
• The government has increased the import duty on crude and refined soft
edible oils. Duty on crude soft edible oils has been hiked to 35 per cent and
on soft oils to 45 per cent. The latest duty hike is aimed at curbing cheaper
imports and to provide better prices for the domestic farmers.
•
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Jaipur 4262.25 4217.9 1.05
Alwar 4282.5 4243.9 0.91
Sriganga Nagar 4200 4100 2.44
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower world production estimate Bullish
Completion of procurement activities in major producing states
Bearish
Lower rapeseed oil imports Bullish
Lower mustard meal exports Bearish
Lower production estimate Bullish
Increase in import duty on crude and refined soft edible oils
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
No
v-15
Feb
-16
May
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Feb
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
RM SEED
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• According to traders, there are reports of good export demand
from China, Taiwan and Bangladesh. In May, the export of jeera
(from Mundra and Pipavav Port) was approximately (21,962
tonnes from Mundra and 3,839 tonnes from Pipavav) 25,801
tonnes, indicating that the demand in export is on the rise.
• Cumin seed exports increased by 25 per cent during 2017-18 and
stood at 153,103.35 tonnes as against 122,577.68 tonnes in 2016-17.
In 2018-19, the export volumes of jeera are expected to be higher
than 2017-18 exports due to the fact that the prices have been on
lower side this year as of record production.
• Moreover, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to
heavy rainfall in June have shifted the export demand towards
India. Quality and price wise Indian Jeera is more competitive than
other producing country.
• Export Demand of jeera is expected to rise as rupee is getting
weaker as compare to dollar and firmness in crude oil price.
• Demand from retailers and stockiest is higher than normal.
However, good monsoon reports may cap the upside movement
of the spot prices.
• According to the agmark, all India jeera arrivals in the second
week of July is reported at 1.62 thousand MT which is 14.10 per
cent lower than the first week of July arrivals of 3.13 thousand MT.
Fall in supplies from growing regions have pushed the spot prices
upward. Moreover, farmers are still holding their stock in
expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days.
• Record prices in 2017-18 triggered an increase in jeera sowing in
the top producing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, leading to a
bumper crop of around 6 lakh tonne, against a normal 4-5 lakh
tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Unjha 17000 16800 1.19
Rajkot 17125 17325 -1.15
Jodhpur 18000 17500 2.86
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Good export demand from China Taiwan and Bangladesh
Bullish
Higher exports Bullish
Crop damage in Syria and Turkey Bullish
Good monsoon Bearish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha
JEERA
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Strong demand in spot markets from traders and stockiest continue to
keep Castor trade firm. The advancement of monsoon rainfall over key
castor seed growing belts has checked the uptrend in the commodity.
• As per market sources, increased demand from soap, paint and other
consuming industries against pause in supplies from growing belts may
keep Castor prices firm in coming weeks.
• According to the Ministry of Agriculture report dated, 13th July 2018, the
All India acreage of Castor seed was 0.43 lakh hectares as against 0.57
lakh hectares. The lower acreage has slightly bullish impact on the
prices.
• As per the Department of Agriculture, Castor acreage as on 09th July
2018 stood at 1,099 hectares. The three years season normal average
acreage of Castor in the state is around 6,48,533 hectares.
• As per the 3rd advance estimates released by the Department of
Agriculture Gujarat Castor seed production in Gujarat for 2017-18
estimated at 12.69 lakh tonnes as against 12.55 lakh tonnes in 2016-17.
• According to 3rd advance estimates by Department of Agriculture
Rajasthan, Castor seed production in 2017-18 estimated at 1.54 lakh
tonnes as compared to 1.90 lakh tonnes last year.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 3rd Advance Estimates for 2017-18,
Castor seed production in India is 14.90 lakh tonnes as compared to
13.76 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. The all India Castor seed production target
for 2017-18 is 19.00 lakh tonnes.
• India castor meal export declined by 15 per cent to 1.04 lakh tonnes
during April-May 2018 as compared to 1.23 lakh tonnes same period a
year ago. The country has shipped 6.39 lakh tonnes of castor oil in FY
2017-18.
• Similarly, castor meal export performance was also subdued with April-
May shipment totalled at 19,731 tonnes, down from 30,566 tonnes last
year. Castor meal export during FY 2017-18 was stood at 5.73 lakh
tonnes, sharply down from 4.11 lakh tonnes a year ago.
• Castor seed stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 15th July
declined by 14 per cent at 43,046 metric tonnes as compared to 50,131
metric tonnes.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Deesa 4458 4371 1.99
Mehsana 4240 4180 1.43
Jodhpur 4100 3900 5.12
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Good rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan castor growing belts
Bearish
Strong buying by Stockists and traders Bullish
Lower acreage during current season Bullish
Higher castor production estimates for key producing states Gujarat
Bearish
Lower castor meal exports Bearish
Improved demand at lower price levels
Bullish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
2800
3160
3520
3880
4240
4600
4960
Mar
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
De
c-15
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Feb
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Castor - Deesa
CASTOR
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Turmeric prices in spot as well as futures have remained steady tracking
subdued domestic and export demand.
• In Maharashtra, turmeric new crop almost finished in Sangli mandi.
However, from Basmat and Hingoli region (late sowing zone) around
75 – 80 per cent of new crop has been traded.
• According to market sources around 30 to 32 lakh bags of turmeric
stock seen. The new turmeric crops will take at least 9 to 10 months to
come into the market. For the said nine months, there will not be
enough stock in the market, which is likely to result in firmness in prices
in the coming months.
• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing as on 11th July 2018 reported 6,574
hectares as compared to 4,930 hectares in the corresponding period
last year, 37 per cent sowing completed from season normal.
• In Telangana Turmeric sowing as on 27th June 2018 reported 10,858
hectares as compared to 9,641 hectares in the corresponding period
last year. Around 14 per cent sowing completed from season normal.
Till now, Nizamabad region reported 1,986 hectares compared to last
year 901 hectares and Warangal (rural) reported 2,634 hectares
compared to last year 1,816 hectares.
• As per market sources, in normal monsoon rainfall condition Turmeric
all India area may go up by 12 – 14 per cent as compared to last year due
to higher prices.
• This year, sowing of turmeric is expected to increase in Marathwada,
Vidarbha and many parts of Khandesh (Jalgaon, Dhule/Dhulia,
Malegaon, Aurangabad, Akola, Buldhana) due to which, the crop in
Maharashtra is expected to be about one and a half times as compared
to last year.
• Likewise in Tamil Nadu due to the shortage of rainfall in the last few
years there was a decline in turmeric crop, but this time according to
the Meteorological Department, good rainfall is expected in the state,
that has raised hopes of higher production.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, the All India Turmeric production in
2017-18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.61 lakh tonnes
estimated in 2016-17.
• As per the Department of Commerce monthly trade data Turmeric
exports from India in April 2018 declined by 24 per cent at 10,461.81 metric tonnes against 13,795.82 metric tonnes in April 2017.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
16-07-2018 09-07-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 7300 7348 -0.65
Erode 7201 7500 -3.98
Salem 8270 8445 -2.07
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Subdued domestic and export demand
Bearish
Lower supplies in spot markets Bullish
Tight stock position Bullish
Higher production estimates Bearish
IMD forecasting overall normal rainfall in the country
Bearish
Expectation of higher acreage during current season
Bearish
Lower exports during 2017-18 Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
4800
5500
6200
6900
7600
8300
9000
9700
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jul-1
6
No
v-16
Mar
-17
Jul-1
7
No
v-17
Mar
-18
Jul-1
8
Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad
TURMERIC
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Sugar output seen at a new high of
355 lakh tonnes in 2018-19
• Overall rainfall deficit narrows to 4%,
but UP, Bihar, Jharkhand still face
dry conditions
• Duty hike, weak rupee bring down
vegoil imports by 23% in June
• Kharif sowing gathers pace, but still
down 10% over last year
• Soyabean planting nears
completion; acreage seen up
• Rise in cotton MSP, rain may arrest
fall in acreage
• The world is dealing with a massive
sugar glut
• India's rice exports set to ease as
govt raises buying price
• Hike in MSP unlikely to benefit many
growers
• An alternative agenda for farm
support
To purchase the India Commodity Year
Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
Third advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates : Third
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2016-17 2017-18
Wheat 1625 1735
Barley 1325 1410
Gram 4000* 4400
Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250
Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000
Safflower 3700* 4100
Wheat 1625 1735
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
16-Jul-18 02-Jul-18 16-Jun-18 17-Jul-17
Soybean 3553 3668 3569 2971
RM seed 4262.25 4119.75 4081.95 3850
Turmeric 7300 7421.45 7361.75 7500
Cotton 13498.3 13076.5 13132.7 11846.2
Jeera 17000 16200 14800 17500
Castor 4458 4150 4067.1 4520.25
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
THE WEEK THAT WAS
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
yyy
link
NCoMM QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
1. This commodity's MSP for 2018 -19 has been increased by 4.13% over last year.
ARHAR
2. The production of this commodity in 2017 -18 is est imated at a record 111.52 mil l ion tonnes.
RICE
CHICKPEA
3. This commodity's acreage in Austral ia is expected to fal l by 53% in 2018 -19.
Dr.Ravi Pratap Singh Sangwan Maheshkumar Ramaswamy
Sanjay Singh Chandana Perali
Vineet Poonia Prashant Kumar Ojha
Sunny Karela Venkatesh Thota
Ranjit Singh Somarouthu Narendra
Jaipal Kumar Hareesh Kumar J
Naresh Kumar Sharma Sandeep Kumar Yadav
Satpal Shakti Srvastava
Ramdev Rajesh Kumar Vishwkarma
Surender Kalwa Syed Zaheer Ahmed
Chetan Kulkarni Suresh G
Jai Kumar Prem Kumar
Rohit Chandak Abhineet Srivastava
Swapnil M. Paithane Ansh Aggarwal
Durga Nand Jha Babloo Kumar
Anjali Chirag Gupta
Brijendra Srivastava Ali Imran
Pawan Kumar Riteshkumar Sahu
THE LUCKY WINNER IS…
Hareesh Kumar J Quality Analyst Supervisor , T&C, Bangalore
CONGRATULATIONS!
0
Date: 17/07/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]
Disclaimer:
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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
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errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based
on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which
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© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017