1

What future for the different electricity sources?

SFEN “Atoms for the Future” 2013

Yves Giraud, Generation Economics & Strategy Director EDF

Paris, 22nd October 2013

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Once upon a time, Europe had a dream….

3

Back to Coal !

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Coal, the king of the ring

First in the world

Highly standardized - 2000 €/kW

Flexible

Fuel easy to extract and transport

CCS ? 40%40%

of the world electricity generation

5

Gas, a (fallen) sprinter

Easy, fast and cheap

(900 €/kW)

Clean compared to coal

Today CCGT in Europe are closingbecause of low coal and CO2prices 22%22%

of the world electricity generation

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Low carbon energy

Nuclear13%

Hydro16%

other renwables

4%

33% of the world

electricity generation

33% of the world

electricity generation

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Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce electricity demand

Clean

High costs (1000 to 4000 €/KW)

Bad return on investment

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Renewables, like a dream

Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile

Advanced technologies

Easy to implement

Clean ?

Costs depending on technologies(1000 €/kW to 4000 €/kW)

In the right place at the right time

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March 2011 Fukushima

Nuclear nightmare?

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Time for a nuclear dream!

Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile

Difficult, long and expensive(> 4000 €/MW)

Long construction time

Complex(political, legal and safety)

Low carbon

Competitive (over the long term)

Good for employment

Stable price

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Existing reactors and new buildprojects

New build projects/programmes

Nuclear exit or phase out

Exsiting reactors with no new buildprojects

Lots of countries see a future for nuclear

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Opinion on nuclear is not that bad

Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country?

Source: CSA; questionnaire realised between 26/11/12 and 18/12/12

19

18

29

34

34

34

34

68

50

22

16

15

14

13

6

26

34

30

35

15

22

7

6

15

20

16

37

31

Favorable Opposé Hésitant Sans opinionIn favour Against Unsure No opinion

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The benefits of nuclear are well known

Residential electricity prices (€/MWh) in H2 2012*

*Source: Eurostat H2 2012**Source: IEA Facts 2012

Affordable electricity

Security of supply, helping the trade balance

Low carbon electricity generation

A large number of job opportunities in high performing industries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

France UK Belgium Spain Italy Germany

0

200

400

600

800

France Belgium Spain Italy UK Germany Poland

CO2 emissions (gCO2/kWh) in 2010**

Average OECD-Europe

145

179

222 228 230

268€228/MWh European average of 17 Eurozone countries outside of France

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Nuclear remains a competitive technology

70 à 100€/MWh

85 - 185 €/MWh

ExistingNuclear

38 €/MWh

2012 TariffsPart of base load

generation

RenewablesNew SC Coal, gas and NNB

EXISTING NUCLEAR

NEW BUILD COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR

WIND, SOLAR PV

+ additional system costs

~55 €/MWhCour des Comptes

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USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already obtained the license for 60 years

The « Grand carénage » in France An opportunity for our industry

An industrial, human and financial challenge

Existing: achieve life extension

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Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1 nuclear life extension?

Tihange NPP

Generation costs

Life extension costs

“Fair margin”

State

Market price Fixed price

70% of revenues

?

30% of revenues

€/M

Wh

Operator

Belgium Government is considering setting a fixedprice* for electricity generated from Tihange 1

Any revenues above this price will be splitbetween the State and the operator by 70% and30%, respectively

€41.8* Bill adopted by the Government

*€41.8/MWh as announced in L’Echo

Under negotiation

Margin

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New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear!

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The challenge of the investment cost

900 MW900 MW

1500 MW1500 MW

EPREPR

1300 MW1300 MW

Wind, PV

1980 1990 2000 2010

€/kWg

?

Nuclear

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Nuclear development is being driven by non-OECD countries (mainly Asia)

*Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012

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HINKLEY POINT ?

ARABIE SAOUDITE

Extended range of models

Optimisation

POLAND 1 & 2?

SAUDI ARABIA?

European industry must continue its nuclear history both for international and renewal of existing

HINKLEY POINT 3 & 4?

FLAMANVILLE 3

TAISHAN 1 & 2

OLKILUOTO 3(Areva)

EPR feedback experience

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UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future

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The CFD is a long term contract providing stability to both customers and investors

92,5 £/MWh

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A strong political commitment to the polish nuclear programme:

– 2011: “Nuclear Package” voted almost unanimously

(407 for vs. 2 against) by the Parliament

– 2012: PGE announces a package of Integrated

Proceedings for the first nuclear project

– Spring 2013: preliminary dialogue with interested

bidders

– End-2013: finalisation of Polish Nuclear Programme

– 2025-2030: target commissioning date for 6,000MW

EDF and its partner Areva have announced their

intention to participate in the Polish NNB

programme

Poland: a robust process is underway which in a sense can be compared to the commitment of UK

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Towards a new market design

Difficulties to launch nuclear projects in a deregulated market….

… as for any other technologies

Let’s invent a new market design for nuclear

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Let’s start a new dream with nuclear

Nuclear will playan important role

Life extension must be achieved

A vital need for NNB projects