DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION ONLY

DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND LIVESTOCK IN SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE

CASE STUDIES FROM CHIVI AND CHIREDZI DISTRICTS

Ian Scoones

with

Blasio Mavedzenge, Bright Mombeshora, Clarkson Mudziwo, Felix Murimbarimba and William Wolmer

ENVIRONMENT GROUP, INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX, UK

AND

FARMING SYSTEMS RESEARCH UNIT, DEPARTMENT OF RESEARCH AND SPECIALIST SERVICES, MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, ZIMBABWE

DECEMBER 1998

1. INTRODUCTION

In southern Zimbabwe drought is a recurrent phenomenon. It is part of the normal pattern of events. Uncertainty and surprise are key to the social, ecological and economic dynamics of such environments. Response and adaptation to uncertain drought events are thus embedded in local people’s practice and consciousness. Drought contingency planning is therefore not a new concept to the livestock keepers of this region. However, formal drought planning and response measures differ in some important respects to local approaches. These centre on how risk, uncertainty, trends and variability are assessed and viewed; how information is interpreted and perceived; and how the ecological, institutional and political contexts of drought are seen.

Through the examination of two case studies from southern Zimbabwe - Chivi and Chikombedzi - this report explores how official responses to drought have been defined and elaborated, and how local responses complement or contrast with these. The analysis of the case material points to a number of key issues of importance when thinking about drought contingency planning for livestock in dryland Zimbabwe. The emphasis throughout the report is on cattle as the key livestock species most vulnerable to drought, however it must also be recognised that smallstock and donkeys are also important aspects of the livestock system (and perhaps increasingly so). Issues relating to these species are raised where appropriate. Clearly this analysis is based on limited case study material, and refers only to the drier agropastoral areas of the country. No doubt other issues relating to drought contingency planning will apply in the higher potential zones and in the more extensive pastoral systems of Matabeleland.

Section 2 introduces the two case study areas and presents some basic comparative data on ecology, livestock population dynamics and socio-economic parameters. An historical review of drought events and responses shows how drought must be seen as a social and economic phenomenon, as well as a meteorological condition. Section 3 looks at the official response to drought, concentrating on the period since Independence in 1980. The emergence of a drought industry, involving information systems, early warning devices and relief activities is documented. Section 4 turns to local responses to drought and looks at practices centred on in situ fodder management, livestock movement and marketing in turn. In Section 5, the ranges of formal interventions pursued in the two sites during the 1991-92 drought are examined in some detail through a series of case studies. Section 6 focuses on how drought is perceived locally. The socially embedded nature of risk perceptions is considered and the contrasts with the formal responses in terms of information systems, institutions for dealing with risk and uncertainty are also explored. The final section concludes with a summary of the key lessons learned from the case study work and offers some tentative suggestions for linking understandings of drought, livestock and livelihoods in a framework for contingency planning appropriate to the Zimbabwean setting.

2. THE STUDY AREAS

Two study areas were chosen for this work, broadly representative of the dryland agro-pastoral conditions of the south of the country (Figure 1). Chivi is found on the lower edge of the main escarpment with altitude ranging between 450 and 950 masl, while Chikombedzi is further down into the low veld (altitude 400-450 masl).

Figure 1. Map showing the location of the study sites.

Within Chivi communal area three sites were chosen - Ngundu, Chivi Central and Takavarasha. Each has been the site of on-farm research by the Farming Systems Research Unit since the mid-1980s. Also, these sites were the focus for a detailed study of drought management during the 1990s (Scoones et al, 1996), and so the current study provided a useful opportunity for following up this work. Within the Matibi II communal area of Chiredzi district, the Chikombedzi area was the focus of this work. This has also been the focus for in-depth work on crop-livestock integration processes (Sithole et al, forthcoming) and again afforded the opportunity for exploring new dimensions of an issue drawing on a solid research background.

The case studies for this study were carried out between June and August 1998 by the FSRU Chivi field team, led by Blasio Mavedzenge and supported by Bright Mombeshora (FSRU, Harare) and William Wolmer (IDS, Sussex). A limited amount of time was available for fieldwork, and rapid appraisal methods were used to complement semi-structured interviews and document analysis. The elements of the case studies included:

Transect walks, observation and general discussions on cropping patterns, grazing issues, livestock breeds, drought fodder strategies;

Historical interviews on drought event histories with key informants; Interviews with farmers/livestock keepers on pros and cons of different drought responses

(fodder, movement, marketing) and assessment of factors constraining or increasing drought response options since 1980;

Scoring of drought response options over time (1982-84, 1991-92, 1997-98); Interviews on drought perceptions with farmers, herders and local officials; Interviews of implementers and beneficiaries of a selection of drought intervention case studies

(pen feeding schemes, marketing etc.).

Table 1 provides some basic comparisons between the two sites. Both sites are fairly typical agro-pastoral systems, with cropping and livestock rearing being carried out by a household. Livestock holdings are dominated by cattle and goats. However donkeys are increasingly important. Sheep and pigs, however, are kept only in small numbers. In common with most other communal areas in the country, grazing resources are increasingly short due to the growth in human populations and the expansion of arable lands, and fodder (and to some extent water) shortages are critical during the dry season and drought periods. Major droughts have struck both areas on a number of occasions during the last decades, most notably during 1982-84 and 1991-92.

Table 1. A comparison of the study areas

Chivi Chikombedzi

Rainfall (average, mm and cv) 548mm (CV: 37%) 450mm (CV 37%)

Soil types Mostly sandy soils, with red soils interspersed. Black vertisols in the depressions.

Mostly black basalts clays, some red clays and sands also.

Vegetation types Predominantly miombo woodland, although Colophospermum mopane/Combretum/Acacia woodland in parts

Predominantly mopane woodland, with mixed Combretum and Acacia especially close to water courses

Human population density(at district level)

44.5/km2 10.4/km2

Livestock breeds Mostly Mashona crosses, although an increasing number of Brahman crosses evident

Mixed breeds predominate - crosses of exotics (Brahman, Afrikander, Sussex and Simental) with indigenous (Mashona, Tuli and Nkone)

Cropping system Maize dominates, some sorghum/millet. Also groundnuts, sunflower, bambarra nuts

Sorghum is the dominant crop, also maize and groundnuts are important.

Land holdings Range: 2-4 ha Range: 5-10 ha

Cattle holdings 50-60% of households own cattle, in herds ranging from 1-10. Average 2.6

Around 30-40% of households own cattle, in herds ranging from 2-20. Average 2.1

Donkey holdings Around 30-40% of households own donkeys

Around 25% of households own donkeys

Smallstock holdings 70-75% of households own smallstock, mostly goats, in flocks ranging from 2-30. Average 4.

Around 70% of households own smallstock, mostly goats. Flock sizes average 5, but some are larger than 100.

Tillage methods 70-80% use animal draft, others hoe or hire tractors

Nearly half of all households hand hoe their land. Around 20% use tractors and 33% use animal draft

Sources: RRA information, 1998; plus FSRU surveys in Chivi (1991-93) and IES/IDS surveys in Chikombedzi (1997-98); 1992 Zimbabwe census

The following sections continue the comparative analysis across the two sites according to a number of themes that link ecological dynamics, settlement histories to livelihood contexts and the dynamics of livestock populations in droughts prone areas.

Ecological dynamics

Two broadly contrasting savannah types can be identified across the two sites. First, a dystrophic savannah type is found in the sandy soil areas of Chivi which is dominated by miombo vegetation (major species including Brachystegia spiciformis and Julbernadia globiflora) with a relatively

poor quality, yet resilient, grassland of perennial species. Second, a eutrophic savannah type is found in the heavier clay soils of Chivi (notably around Takavarasha) and in the low-veld setting of Chikombedzi. Here mopane woodland dominates, although a variety of other tree species are important including Colophospermum, Combretums and Acacias. The grassland in such savannahs is of higher quality (e.g. in terms of crude protein content), although species composition is very variable, with major shifts between perennials and annuals occurring depending on rainfall.

In terms of primary productivity, the dystrophic savannah areas show a greater stability across time, despite similar rainfall variations. The relatively greater tree biomass in these woodland areas, and the infiltration properties of the sandy soils, allows grass to grow even in drought periods. By contrast, in the eutrophic savannahs much greater variability in primary production of grasslands, in particular, is seen. During drought periods, virtually no grass grows at all in such areas, and leaf fall from trees is practically the only fodder available. The quality of the fodder available shows some important contrasts again. In the dystrophic savannahs poor quality of both graze and browse is observed, although the phenomenon of the early pre-rains flush of new leaves in miombo woodland provides a temporally important source of relatively high quality (although tannin rich) fodder. This contrasts with the eutrophic setting where much higher quality fodder sources are found year round. Mopane leaves, for example, both green and dry, can provide important nutrition in times of drought (see below).

However, these broad characterisations of savannah type are not universal, as, within any area, different patches occur. These are the result of variations in topography and soil type, and, in some cases, human action (e.g. old kraal or settlement sites). So, within a low productivity, poor fodder quality dystrophic landscape, patches of high productivity and high quality fodder may be found. In such settings, these are typically along riverbanks, in drainage lines or in vleis/dambos. In eutrophic savannah areas, riverine strips are particularly important, as here the key moisture constraint may be relieved and high productivity potentials realised. Such patches may act as key resources in that such areas may be critical to livestock survival at key periods (such as at the end of the dry season or during droughts), making an assessment of the spatial patterning, availability and access to such key resources critical. Thus overall, the two sites are characterised by essentially non-equilibrial dynamics, particularly in the eutrophic savannah areas of Chikombedzi and Takavarasha in Chivi, offset to some degree by the availability of key resources along riverine strips, and a more equilibrial (although nonetheless highly variable) setting in Ngundu and central Chivi.

Settlement and farming histories

Access to fodder resources for livestock is critically affected by the history of settlement and farming in the two areas. Much of the Chivi study area (notably Chivi central and Takavarasha) has been farmed for around a century, with the major expansion of arable land occurring following the arrival of the plough in the early 1900s. By contrast Ngundu in southern Chivi and Chikombedzi have only seen significant expansions of settlement since the 1950s. In Ngundu this occurred following the expulsion of farmers from land designated for European use. In Chikombedzi, similar influxes of Shona farmers occurred with new settlements established alongside existing Shangaan settlements. The liberation war particularly affected the Chikombedzi site as protected villages were established, and the existing settlement pattern was disrupted.

In all sites attempts have been made at various points from the 1930s through to the post-independence period to plan land use around a model of separate grazing and farming areas and distinct linear or clustered settlement areas. Although the implementation of such schemes was patchy, this had a major impact on access to grazing and other fodder resources. Increasingly, grazing lands have been restricted to strips along the rivers and drainage lines (although irrigation and garden plots prevent grazing in some places), while the uplands are largely arable or settlement areas, except for mountains and hillsides. In terms of grazing patterns a seasonal rotation can be observed with the dryland grazing areas being used most following the rains (November-April), the arable areas (including drainage strips and contours) following the harvest (April-June), and the riverine and drainage areas (July-October) during the dry season.

As arable areas expand at the expense of grazing, livestock are increasingly reliant on patch grazing in the interstices of other land uses - around settlements, on the edge of fields, along road sides and paths, and in inaccessible sites up hills and in valleys. The management of fodder resources for livestock (particularly cattle) therefore requires much skill and ingenuity, even in years of normal rainfall. In drought years, the challenges are even greater. At such times livestock keepers must look to other resources, including new sources of fodder found within the communal lands boundaries or movement beyond (see section 4 for details).

Movement as a strategy for managing fodder (and sometimes water) shortages in drought periods has long been important to livestock management in the dryland areas of Zimbabwe. Exchanges of livestock through loaning and exchange systems have been part of indigenous responses (see section 4). However, over time, the opportunities for such livestock movements have changed.

The location of each of the study sites is significant in this respect. As Figure 1 shows, both communal areas are surrounded by other land uses - commercial farms, resettlement areas, small-scale farming areas, and national parks or recreational areas. In the past such areas served as a useful source of fodder resources in times of drought for communal area livestock keepers. As discussed in section 4, this is less so today, as access to such areas is increasingly restricted.

Livelihood contexts

Livestock are only one element of a wider livelihood portfolio of the residents of the study areas. A high degree of differentiation is seen between and within households in the livelihood strategies pursued. Some households pursue a largely agricultural livelihood strategy, basing their livelihood on cropping, with livestock serving as important inputs in terms of draft and manure. Others are more focussed on livestock production, holding large herds and flocks and selling these for cash. Yet others rely more on off-farm income sources, whether from work away from the area (e.g. on the low-veld sugar estates, in the mines of Mashava or Zvishavane or in towns) or from local enterprises (e.g. trading, building, crafts etc.), making such people less reliant on agriculture and livestock keeping.

In the communal area context of Zimbabwe, livestock, and particularly cattle, have an important, multifunctional role. As sources of draft power, transport, milk, meat, manure, exchange and savings, they have a range of roles in the household economy and production system. Numbers, rather than the quality of individual animals are important, as it a major aim for many is to ensure

that sufficient animals are available for a draft span. Cattle especially are highly valued, and not seen as commodities that can be easily disposed of and repurchased. For this reason, farmers are notoriously reluctant to sell animals during drought, preferring to hang on to them in the hope that conditions will improve and the animals will be available for the next season’s farming activities. This reluctance to sell animals is not some form of ‘cattle complex’, but a rational response to the management of a scarce and valuable resource. This understanding of the value of cattle in the communal area system therefore needs to be taken into account when investigating local responses to drought, and particularly to marketing options.

On the basis of existing data, it is not possible to give an exact assessment of the relative importance of different livelihood strategies. However, household data reveals some livelihood patterns across study sites (Table 2).

Table 2: Livelihood patterns across study sites

Ngundu Chikombedzi

Households owning cattle (%) 64 26

Households owning goats (%) 17 62

Average income from crop sales (Z$) 2426 277

Average remittance income (Z$) 525 1271

Average off-farm income (Z$) 2473 1729

Sources: IES/IDS surveys, 1998

In Ngundu, Chivi livelihoods are based on cropping, complemented by off-farm income, including remittances. While a higher percentage of households own cattle here compared to Chikombedzi, these are largely seen as inputs to agriculture rather than sources of income in their own right. In Chikombedzi, livestock, and particularly goats, are seen as important income sources, while cropping is a more limited activity, with high levels of variation between years because of rainfall variation. In this drier zone, off-farm income, and particularly remittances from South Africa, are critically important to local livelihoods.

Such household level data, of course, does not reveal the differences within households according to age and gender. For example, women may pursue a combination of second-hand clothes trading, with goat rearing and vegetable gardening (possibly supported by their daughters and younger sons), while men in the same household may be more engaged in growing maize, rearing cattle and perhaps pursuing some dry season off-farm income earning activity, such as building or carving. Such intra-household differences in livelihood strategy, again, are important to understand if drought planning is to be well focused and appropriate.

Livestock therefore differ in overall contribution to livelihoods. For some livestock are absolutely essential, and great lengths will be gone to ensure their survival during droughts; for others livestock are perhaps less important and so drought responses are focussed in other directions. The

composition of the livelihood portfolio is also important, as those whose livelihoods are solely rural/agriculturally based will suffer more from droughts, compared to those whose livelihoods are more diversified and where risks are covariant. In sum, if drought planning is to be meaningful it must take account of the differentiated nature of livelihood strategies, both across households and within.

Livestock and droughts

Figures 2 and 3 present available time series data for livestock populations in Chivi and Matibi II communal areas between 1923 and 1997. Years of rainfall deficit (below 25% of the long-term mean) are also marked. This shows how rainfall has shown no secular increase or decline, although wetter and drier periods are clearly discernible (cf. Tyson, 1986). In recent decades the cyclical pattern appears to have broken down and a more variable pattern is observed.

Figure 2. Livestock populations in Chivi communal area, 1923-1997

Figure 3. Livestock populations in Matibi II communal area, 1923-1997.

A number of reflections follow from this data:

A pattern of increase and collapse is seen in cattle populations over time, illustrating high degrees of variability in population dynamics;

Livestock declines are seen following major droughts, but also following other key events (such as the cold snap of 1968 and the disease outbreaks of the late 1970s, following the breakdown of dipping during the liberation war);

Rainfall deficit periods (especially if in sequence) appear to have a larger effect in the more recent decades than in the earlier periods. This may be attributed to increased livestock densities within the communal areas, increased arable grazing ratios, and reduced movement possibilities outside the communal areas;

Ecological carrying capacities may have been reached at various points over time i.e. density dependent mortalities are observed. However, these have been relatively rare. Most of the time cattle population densities have been maintained under such levels due to the combined effects of drought and disease;

Goat populations have increased significantly over time, and do not appear to have reached a ceiling in either area. Drought impacts do not appear to be so significant, although disease is a major issue (e.g. in the 1970s);

Donkey populations have remained low in both sites, but have overall increased, particularly in the last 20 years;

The ratio of cattle:goat populations has shifted, with goats apparently displacing cattle, particularly in the last 10-15 years;

Recovery from drought events has always been rapid for cattle populations, faster than the natural rate of growth (for the age/sex structure of the population). This is because of import of cattle from outside, combined with the very high reconception rate following droughts of indigenous breeds.

A closer look at some monthly dip data from a nearby communal area (Mazvihwa, adjacent to the Takavarasha study site in Chivi) confirms this dynamic pattern of collapse and recovery, but also highlights how, within areas, differences occur which can be directly related to the ecological setting. In eutrophic savannah areas a higher degree of variability in population dynamics is seen than in a dystrophic site. Eutrophic sites also have a greater mix of livestock species, with a larger prevalence of small-stock than in dystrophic sites (cf. Scoones, 1995).

An opportunistic stocking strategy is seen which responds to the variable ecosystem dynamics driven, for the most part, by rainfall variation. Such a pattern has a number of consequences. Opportunistic management results in the possibilities of higher stocking rates and higher economic returns per unit area compared to stocking at a lower safe level (as recommended by extension in line with the economic carrying capacity for beef production). However, due to imperfect tracking, potential losses of economic value and ecological damage may result due under-stocking and overstocking in relation to available forage at different points in the cycle. Mismatches between available fodder and livestock populations at various times may result in large scale mortalities or the necessity of sale of livestock at low prices to flooded markets.

The economic costs of drought are high. The major loss of animals which occurred in both study sites during 1982-84 and 1991-92 (especially cattle) had a major impact on the rural economy over a number of years. A rough calculation of the economic losses resulting from drought mortality of cattle can be made using data on the economic value of cattle in the communal areas. Taking account of the range of functions (draft power, milk, meat, manure etc.), a rough figure for the value of an individual animal can be made. Assuming a particular sex and age profile for the population typical of the communal areas, Scoones et al (1996: 210) estimated that, with a survival rate of 41%, the total loss at a district level across Chivi was in the order of Z$20million (at 1991 prices). Although some of this was recouped through salvage slaughtering, this represents a major loss of capital from an already vulnerable economy. This loss is felt for a number of years. With a mortality of 50%, a recovery time of between 5 and 7 years can be expected (Toulmin, 1995).

Some would argue that the high losses experienced are simply the price to be paid for a high level and opportunistic stocking strategy. However, all assessments suggest that, in the context of a communal area production system, a relatively high stocking rate makes sense, as returns per hectare are maximised. Despite the ups and downs of such a stocking strategy, the returns over a longer period are seen to be preferable than opting for a conservative stocking approach (Sandford, 1982).

The challenge, however, is to ameliorate the negative impacts and reduce losses during drought. The rest of this report is concerned with both formal and informal strategies to this end. However, there may also be environmental costs of such an approach. If stocking rates are maintained artificially high in a particular place, there are possibilities of longer-term environmental degradation. This may particularly arise in and around feeding areas, watering points or settlements where stock are concentrated during drought. While soil compaction, gully and rill formation may result in longer-term impacts on grassland productivity in such areas; there is little evidence that maintaining higher population densities of cattle has a wider effect on the range-land environment. Recovery, even after the major drought of 1991-92, has been spectacular with perennial grasses returning to areas where they had not been seen for a decade. This resilience of savannah grasslands is an important characteristic. While such resilience is of course not infinite, the costs associated with, usually temporary and certainly spatially limited, stock concentrations during drought are probably worth bearing, given the broader economic costs and impacts on livelihoods of high drought mortalities.

3. GOVERNMENT POLICY AND INTERVENTIONS

There has been a long history of external intervention during drought in both study sites. This section explores the changing nature of this intervention from the colonial era to the present. In doing this, the section highlights the particular characteristics of current external drought planning and response approaches, with a focus on how livestock are treated.

Colonial era: changing roles of government intervention

Government interventions in drought support occurred at various points during the colonial era. As early as 1912, the government provided some food for local inhabitants of Chivi as part of a food-for-work scheme. Food was again distributed in 1916 and 1922 during two subsequent major droughts. Throughout this period, livestock are not mentioned as suffering in archival reports. Indeed, livestock trade with exchanges for grain was the major basis for drought survival for many. The expanding network of informal livestock traders across the region was an important element of drought survival during this time. Extensive grazing lands were available and livestock apparently rarely suffered from drought impacts. It was only on rare occasions that mention was made in the annual Native Commissioners reports of this period that relief grazing on unoccupied land had to be made available; for the most part people were able to access sufficient fodder in their own locality.

The role of livestock in drought coping was exemplified during the 1947 drought, one of the most severe ever to hit the region. Over 200000 cattle were sold nationally in the reserves and exchanged for grain, which was transported by traders between surplus and deficit areas. The Assistant Native Commissioner for Zvishavane (nearby the Chivi study area) commented:

Were such a drought as this to strike the local reserve (Lundi) with its present economy at a time when it had no bank in the form of excess livestock, the results would have been more than calamitous (ANC Shabani, 1947).

The result was that the government had to spend virtually nothing on drought relief. The Chief Native Commissioner commented in his annual report:

This is the first time in the colonys history that we have had a major drought and famine which has cost the government practically nothing by the way of famine relief to the native population (CNC, 1947).

By the 1950s, however, the situation was somewhat different. A number of factors contributed to this. First, following implementation of the Land Apportionment Act of 1930, land, previously available for grazing, was now occupied by European farmers. Second, destocking had started in Chivi as part of the Native Land Husbandry Act of 1952 (although it never was implemented in Chikombedzi because of the relatively low stock densities). This meant that the number of cattle available for sale and exchange during drought had declined. Third, the informal trading system had been disrupted by government restrictions, and the establishment of formal auction sales controlled by the government.

The result of this has been that, over time, certain areas and certain sections of the population have become increasingly reliant on external support in times of drought, particularly because the local livestock asset base has been undermined.

Post independence: the emergence of a drought industry

Following independence the focus on drought and relief reached a new pitch. This was precipitated in particular by the drought of 1982-83 that required a major food relief effort, particularly in the south of the country (including both study areas). Despite very large livestock mortalities (up to 60% of cattle died in some sites in the area, see Scoones et al, 1996), very little was done in relation to livestock. The focus was on food and getting this to the rural areas, rather than seeing the potential exchange potential of livestock, or assessing the consequences of the drastic economic loss of livestock (see section 2).

Since 1982, both study sites have had food aid supplied by government in some form or other more or less continuously. Food aid has acquired a political value for local councillors, MPs and the ruling party. Clear correlations between the Department of Social Welfares food aid disbursement and election timing can be discerned, for instance. The consequence has been that a food aid industry has been established, with many key people, ranging from local to national politicians, NGO projects and international agencies, involved in a mutually dependent pattern. Within this there appears to be very little debate about the role of livestock and the potentials for drought planning and mitigation measures. This has resulted in a policy vacuum with respect to livestock and drought.

In the national policy on livestock prepared by the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture and Water Development in 1992 (MLAWD, 1992), there are a few comments on the importance of livestock drought planning. However, this document never really became implemented, and by the time the 1996 Agricultural Policy of Zimbabwe (GoZ, 1996), multiple use, multi-species communal livestock systems were again way down the policy agenda. With a few nods towards issues of food security issues, this is very much a commodity production focussed document, set within the context of the governments economic reform agenda. Where livestock are mentioned, they are in the context of the beef or dairy industry, and, although acknowledged, the broader economic role of livestock in the communal area economy is not really analysed. Overall, the economies of marginal dryland areas and broader social and welfare issues associated with drought management are barely mentioned.

The food grain focus is reflected in the range of national and regional food security and early warning outfits that were established in the aftermath of the 1982-83 drought. In 1987 SADC established the Food Security Technical Administrative Unit (FTSAU) which housed the Regional Early Warning Unit (REWU) and the Regional Remote Sensing Project (RRSP). This was linked to the USAID supported Famine Early Warning Project for southern Africa.

The REWU was supported by Danish and FAO funds until 1996 when member governments took over the running of the unit. The aim of the unit is to provide advance information on food security prospects in the region through assessments of expected food production, food supplies and requirements. In particular, information is collected on food crop performance, food supply and

demand projections, and food insecure regions and populations. Forecasts of planted areas and production levels are made based on a variety of surveys. These are complemented with rainfall and crop condition assessments, as well as remote sensing data. A food balance model is compiled for each country and is integrated with marketing and price information. This information is supplied to national governments (via the national early warning units) in the form of quarterly, monthly and ten-day agro-meteorlogical bulletins. According to the REWU website:

The information is used mostly for planning and analysis purposes. In instances such as the 1991-92 and 1994-95 droughts, the early warning information was used to alert regional governments and the international community of impending food shortages as a result of severe rainfall deficits, so that timely action could be taken.

It was during the 1991-92 that these new units were put to the test, as a major region-wide drought occurred. The units did indeed alert governments and donors in good time that a major drought was going to occur, so that food import arrangements could be made. However, the degree to which this information was used is perhaps questionable. Indeed, in Zimbabwe the government reacted very late, and showed a great deal of mistrust of the predictions. Even the international community seemed to have some disdain for the information and the FAO/WFP sent an independent mission for verification. The missing link (cf. Buchanan-Smith and Davies, 1995) between early warning and action was clearly evident.

As noted already, this huge international investment in early warning and drought planning has apparently ignored the livestock sector almost completely. In the most recent quarterly food security bulletin for Zimbabwe, there is one mention of livestock under the section entitled progress with cereal import/export programmes. It notes:

Reports of severe food shortages and a critical lack of pasture threatening to decimate livestock are being received from the southern areas. More than 1 million people country-wide have already lined up for food relief due to poor harvests.

It must be asked whether information of this sort is of any practical use in planning for livestock and drought relief. Searches of other recent monthly and quarterly reports from either FEWS or REWU found a similarly lack of attention to livestock, and, if mentioned at all, the points were of such generality that they were of doubtful utility to any planner or policy-maker and certainly no livestock keeper in the study areas.

El Niňo

The investment in the drought industry took a new leap forward with the publicising of the El Niňo phenomenon, and, with this, the claims by some meteorologists that accurate medium range prediction was around the corner. This prospect puts a whole new angle on the potentials of early warning systems. No longer would these be simply information processing systems, but actual prediction might be possible. In Zimbabwe, this was highlighted in 1994 with the publication of an article in Nature that showed the strong correlation between El Niňo events and maize yields (Cane et al, 1994). Mark Cane was gung-ho:

The future is bright. The possibility of long-range climate prediction has been demonstrated. There is much room for improvement in prediction models, and rapid strides are being taken to incorporate existing technologies from weather prediction and elsewhere (Cane, 1997).

This prospect attracted much interest, and USAID among others invested in trying to link this apparently increased prediction capacity with early warning initiatives already in place. Throughout 1997 therefore the bulletins were full of brave predictions based on the El Niňo observations, culminating in recommendations by the Zimbabwe government to avoid maize unless in wetter areas and to focus on drought resistant cultivators. As already mentioned, the 1997-98 season did not turn out as predicted. While some areas had drought conditions, others had quite good years. A highly variegated pattern emerged, where generalised predictions from the early warning units were somewhat meaningless.

Discussion

Despite the increasing capacity to predict climatic events, the accuracy of these will continue to remain doubtful. While information emerging from the early warning and food security units may be useful for aggregate level planning, and particularly in the context of national or region wide droughts, the information is at too general a level to be of much use at the local level. The almost complete absence of information on livestock and pasture issues makes such information of even less value if the focus, as in this report, is livestock.

Government policy and interventions, it seems, have been largely silent on livestock. Those that have occurred have been reactive attempts to offset the worst consequences of a crisis, rather than systematic, proactive planning (see section 5). This is in part because of the continued misconceptions about the role of livestock in the communal area economy which pervade policy debates. The ‘beef syndrome’, which sees cattle simply as producers of meat for commercial sale, and ignores goats and donkeys, creates problematic distortions in the way policy issues and drought responses are debated and conceived.

Inevitably, therefore, fundamental uncertainties and indeterminacies, despite the advances in climate science, still remain. As the Kenyan meteorologist, Kinuthia (1997) comments:

Existing climatic prediction models are too coarse for the development of reliable and credible regional climatic scenarios. There is a significant uncertainty regarding the climate change scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa... This makes it more urgent for the southern African inhabitants to be adaptive in the face of uncertain trends.

And, of course, this is exactly what livestock keepers in the study areas did. The information emerging from the formal system - via the radio, in the newspapers and through the extension system - was basically not trusted. Alternative adaptive responses to uncertain conditions were therefore the only way to respond (see section 4).

The lessons from early warning systems in Zimbabwe and elsewhere are that, in order for the missing link between early warning and action to be filled, a number of conditions must be met (see Buchanan-Smith and Davies, 1995; Callear, 1997; Glantz, 1997):

The information must be clear and meaningful to users if it is to be used effectively;

The information must be linked to clear options for action at the appropriate scale;

Trust must exist between information providers and users if credibility is to be ensured;

The political context must be conducive to response and other interests must not stand in the way;

There must be a capacity for rapid and effective response as conditions unfold;

Prediction and forecasting must be combined with adaptive response.

In the context of Zimbabwe, despite the huge range of investments in early warning initiatives since the 1980s, many of these conditions are not met, particularly in respect of local level responses. For this reason, the adaptive responses at the local level remain the key focus for drought planning and response for livestock in the case study areas. It is to this theme which we now turn.

4. LOCAL RESPONSES TO DROUGHT

Introduction

This section will explore how the formal government policy and interventions discussed in Section 3 articulate with local responses to drought in the study areas. For a range of drought responses linked to fodder management, livestock movement and marketing, a number of key questions will be posed:

How effective are different drought management strategies?

What factors have influenced the effectiveness of such responses?

How are drought responses differentiated by site and by social group?

This will lead into the next section where local perceptions of drought are examined in more detail.

Historical context

Droughts are a normal part of life in the dry southern communal areas of Zimbabwe. Oral histories and archival records provide evidence of how people have responded to such events over time. Table 3 provides a chronology of drought events that have affected Chivi district over the last century, relating the severity of the drought (according to a drought index indicating relative rainfall deficits) to impacts and responses over time.

As discussed in section 3, food relief efforts from government were part of the picture from as early as 1896, and have increased since. But the basic range of responses at a local level has remained comparable, involving a mixture of fodder management, movement of livestock, and trading and exchange. These three themes will be examined in some detail in the following sections for the droughts since Independence in 1980.

Table 3. Chronology of droughts in Chivi (from Scoones et al, 1996).YEAR SEVERITY (DI) IMPACTS RESPONSE

c. 1861 nd Crop failure Use of wild resources; cattle exchange

1896 nd Crop failure, rinderpest die off of cattle

Food relief in Matabeleland; wild foods

1903 nd Crop failure Cattle-grain exchange; migration; wild food use

1911 * Crop failure Local cattle-grain exchanges

1916 ** Crop failure and food shortages widespread

Government provides food; also local traders exchange grain

1922 ** Crop failure and food shortages widespread

Government supply of food on loan; traders sell grain for cattle; local cattle-grain exchanges

1926-27 ** then * Patchy impacts; small grains survived

Local livestock-grain exchanges; more traders from outside the district involved in the late 1930s

1933, 1935, 1937, 1939

* Localised crop failure compounded by locust attacks

1947 ** Widespread crop failure and livestock mortalities

Migration and government food relief; imported yellow maize from Kenya

1949 ** Patchy crop failure; lack of grazing

Grain purchases from stores; livestock movement

1960 * Crop failure Grain purchased from stores; food for work

1967 * Crop failure followed by 1968 cold spell killing many cattle

Local attempts to keep cattle alive

1972 ** Some cattle mortality; crop yields down

Cattle movement locally

1982-83 ** then * Major crop failure and cattle mortality

Major food relief effort by government and NGOs; large scale cattle migration

1986 ** Some livestock mortality, crop yields down

Local cattle movements; food-for-work programme

1991-92 * then ** Total crop failure in second year; major cattle mortalities

Government and NGO food relief; supplementary feeding and movement of cattle

Sources: Archival records, local interviews. ** = Very severe (DI=<-1.3) * = Severe (DI=< -0.8) (See Scoones et al, 1996). Seasons are based on July-June rainfall figures starting in the year indicated. nd = no data.

Fodder management

During drought periods a range of vegetation species are used as feed. Table 4 lists the range of trees and other plants that provide feed during drought across the Chivi study sites, while Table 4 lists the pros and cons of different options, combining information from all sites. Such strategies include a range of options which rely on the purchase of feed supplements from outside the area, including hay, maize husks, sugar cane tops and commercial supplements.

Table 4. Trees and other plants providing feed during drought in Chivi

LIVESTOCK FODDER L O C A T I O N Common name Latin name Chivi south Chivi central Takavarasha

Musasa Brachystegia spiciformis x X

Muunze Brachystegia glaucescens x XMutondo Julbernardia globiflora x X

Mupfura Sclerocarya birrea x X

Muunga Acacia spp. x X x

Mupani Colophospermum mopane X x

Mubondo Combretum molle x X x

Mutsviri Combretum imberbe x X x

Mupwezha Combretum fragrans x X x

Musekesa Pilostigma thonningii x x x

Mupangara Dichrostachys cinerea x x x

Mumveva Kigelia africana x x x

Mupanda Lonchocarpus capassa x x

Mutechani Combretum hereroense x

Munyii Berchemia discolor x

Muchecheni Zizyphus mucronata x x x

Musuma Diospyros mespiliformis x x x

Muvora Albizia amara x

Mubvumira Kirkia acuminata x

Mukamba Afzelia quanzensis x

Mushozhowa Pseudolachnostylis mapruneifolia

x

Mumabhurosi Morus alba x

Mumengo Mangifera indica x

Gubvuwa Not identified climber x

Mudhorofiya Cactus x

Mafuri Coleochloa seifera x x

Rusungwe (Ruzoka)

Euphorbia tirucalli x

Muzangari grass Eragrostis spp. x x

Table 5. Pros and cons of different fodder management strategiesFeed management Pros Cons

Lopping tree branches

Stock owners either lopped tree branches and fed livestock around homesteads or drove livestock to trees that they lopped. Mulberry and mango trees were also lopped. When drought deepened exotic hedges were not spared. In Chikombedzi, mopane, mabvumuria and pfungwanni were particularly important.

Source of fresh feed for livestock; intake good – palatable feed; lopping was crucial to livestock survival; grass was depleted, trees were plentiful.

Labour intensive; climbing trees and cutting not possible for women, also risky for men; presence of tannins affected digestibility; deforestation; long distances travelled to lop trees for livestock; transport (carts) required.

Feeding tree pods/fruits

Masekesa dry pods were collected, chopped or pounded in mortars and fed mornings and evenings; mupangara dry pods were collected, immersed in salted water dried fed ‘as is’ or pounded in mortars and fed; acacia pods were collected and fed straight; mumveva fruits (difficult to chew were fed to donkeys after chopping.

Palatable nutritious feed; animals drank a lot of water after feeding and condition improved; pods were cheaply bought from youths at $1.00 per 90kg or in exchange with stretchable rubber for making catapults (rekeni); livestock helped themselves by eating pods which fell under trees.

Collection of pods was labour intensive; climbing trees to harvest pods and fruits was risky to the youths involved; after some time the pods and fruits were depleted.

Rusungwe (Ruzoka) Cattle were driven to mountains where the Euphorbia climber grew. The climber was cut into pieces and animals fed.

Palatable, nutritious; stockmen believe rusungwe was dosing remedy (livestock dung became soft); evergreen climber, fresh feed at all times; plentiful in hills and mountains of Chivi.

Situated on steep hill sides cutting posed risk to people (falling); cutting labour intensive; juice poisonous to eyes of humans.

Mafuri (Coleochlea setifera)

Long, thin, pliable sedges also used for plaiting grew on rock crevices in mountains were collected soaked in salted water and fed to cattle.

Palatable; survival feed; shoots grow even with little rainfall providing ‘green bites’; plentiful in hills and mountains.

Difficult for cattle to chew (could cause animals to cough); labour intensive; cattle which sometimes grazed the sedge fell off slopes, got injured or died.

Madhorofiya (cactus)

Prickly pears found in valleys or hills were eaten in situ by cattle or were cut and singed over flames to remove thorns. The plant was chopped and fed.

Plenty of water; acceptability and intake improved by burning and removing thorns; bulky feed (thick and fleshy).

When located in steep places, not easy to cut; spines or thorns harm people when harvesting; acceptability poor if spines are not removed; too heavy for cut and carry.

Gubvuwa A climber found in Chivi south was chopped and fed to cattle and goats.

Palatable. Difficult for livestock to chew; low availability.

Table 5. Pros and cons of different fodder management strategies continued:

Feed management Pros Cons

Muzangari (Eragrostis spp.)

A tough grass found on hills and mountains (also used for thatching houses in Takavarasha area) was cut and soaked in salted water and fed to cattle.

Palatable when green or dry.

Grows on places with difficult access; long distances from stockmen residing far from hills and mountains.

Phombwe An underground tuber found in the Chikombedzi area.

A survival feed; ha plenty of water; three tubers could feed up to 6 cattle; dosing remedy for worm; used to treat lumpy skin disease; fed fresh without drying first.

Intensive digging labour up to 50 cm depth; animals take time to accustom to the feed; tubers were finished before the drought ended by March 1992.

Tsoketa Local plant found in Chikombedzi area.

Nutritious. Milk poisonous to eyes and skin of livestock; cutting labour intensive; fed only when dry, limited availability.

Sugar cane tops A few farmers in Chivi South brought some from Triangle and fed cattle. More widespread in Chikombedzi

Palatable. High transport costs, although an option for truck drivers

Hay bales A few Chivi farmers bought some hay bales in Masvingo Town.

Palatable, good feed. Expensive to buy and transport.

Maize husks The Mawarire family bought maize husks from vendors at Chivi Growth point.

Palatable. Limited supply.

Stock feeds Rumevite blocks; pen feeding meal; whole meal.

Palatable, nutritious feed; balanced diet.; animals drink more water; relatively easy to transport.

Expensive, few could afford; lack of knowledge.

Crop residues From a range of cereal and legume crops.

Good bulky feed for livestock.

Buying $100 per 0.1ha plot in irrigation.

Cut and carried grass

Collected from hills, contour ridges, field edge and river banks.

Good feed; dual purpose (thatching and feeding).

Labour intensive.

Vet feeding scheme Animals survived; free feed

Started too little too late; located far away

Source: Discussions in field sites

Table 6. Relative importance of different fodder management strategies

1982-84 1991-92 1997-98Chivi central Lopping tree branches *** *** -

Feeding tree pods/fruits * * -Feeding rusungwe/ruzoka ***** ***** -Feeding madhorofiya * * -

Ngundu, Chivi Lopping tree branches **** ****** -Feeding tree pods/fruits *** ** -Feeding rusungwe/ruzoka ** * -Feeding gubvuwa * * -

Takavarasha, Chivi Lopping tree branches ****** ****** -Feeding tree pods/fruits *** **** -Feeding rusungwe/ruzoka * - -

Chikombedzi Phombwe - **** -Tsoketa *** * -Crop residue * - *****Sugar cane tops - * *Mopane leaves ****** **** ****

Source: Compilation of matrix scoring exercises (10 seeds/drought period/area)

Issues arising include:

Across all drought periods, indigenous trees have proved to be essential for cattle survival (and indeed goats). Mopane has been particularly noted, especially in those eutrophic savannah areas where grass production dramatically collapses;

Under conditions of extreme crisis, as in 1991-92, innovations in drought fodder strategies have occurred. The use of the tuber root, phombwe, for instance, in Chikombedzi was first noted during this period. It quickly spread to a large number of people and proved crucial for sustaining livestock;

Some drought reserve fodders are either inedible or inaccessible under normal conditions. However, during drought species such as euphorbia (rusungwe) become important drought resources;

Sources of fodder from outside the communal area depends on location and transport costs. Cheap by-products from commercial farming operations - such as sugar cane tops - have been important for a few richer farmers, particularly in Chikombedzi, which is relatively near the Triangle and Hippo Valley sugar estates;

Distinctions between droughts that affect grazing and droughts that affect crops have implications for the role of crop residues as drought fodder. When both are affected, as in 1991-92, then crop residues are not available at all (see Section 6). However, on other occasions, even if little grain is produced, considerable biomass in the form of crop residue may be generated and serve as useful fodder in such drought periods, crop residue. In such drought periods crop residue production from irrigation schemes may be particularly important.

Stock feeds are available in major towns (Masvingo, Chiredzi) but are very expensive. Across all droughts they have seen very limited use, although some stock owners with access to remittance incomes bought limited amounts for highly selective feeding (usually to cows and heifers);

The drought of 1997-98 was very mild in the Chivi area and no specific drought response measures were recorded; simply the use of micro-environments (river banks, dambos etc.) proved sufficient to maintain nutrition levels of cattle;

Since scarcity of fodder is relatively sporadic, there is limited evidence of intensification of fodder use, with few farmers growing fodder on their farm plots. There has been some encouragement of the growing of Leucaena leucophela in Chivi, but this has had a fairly limited spread. Treatment of existing materials to improve palatability has been tried by some (e.g. the addition of urea to crop residues, or molasses to ground mopane leaves), but again such measures are not widespread.

Livestock movement

A variety of movement options exist for livestock owners in both Chivi and Chikombedzi (Box 1).

Box 1. Movement options in Chivi and Chikombedzi

Chivi

Vacant commercial ranches. During the 1982-84 drought a number of commercial ranches in the area remained vacant, as their owners had fled the area during the war. From Chivi south, communal herders moved their animals to Makwari, Manduku and Pinha ranches. From Chivi central and Takavarasha livestock were moved to Tickey, Gordon, Stockil, Mabhuruku, Gwanza, and other ranches near Mashava and Zvishavane.

Resettlement areas. Following Independence a number of resettlement areas were established (Mukosi and Nyahombe to the north and east, and Tokwe and Mushandike further south). In the early years these had few settlers and access was easy. By 1991-92, access depended on negotiations with resettlement area communities.

Tugwi and Runde river valleys and mountain areas. These areas were important relief grazing sources during all droughts in the past few decades. Sedges and reeds were important sources of feed in the riverine areas, while the hills nearby were sites where lopping of fodder trees could be carried out.

Chikombedzi

Gezani area, Sengwe communal area. This area, near the Gonarezhou National Park, is sparsely populated and has plenty of grazing resources. Because Chief Gezani and Headman Mupapa are related, the people from Chikombedzi area are free to graze their cattle in the area during times of drought. Great care has to be taken during the herding of cattle due to the risk of predation from wild animals.

Gonakudzingwa small-scale commercial farming area. Some villagers are able to graze their animals in the small-scale plots for free as they are personal friends or relatives of the farmers there. Others exchange grazing rights for labour for fencing or fire guard clearance.

Commercial farms. A number of nearby commercial farms have provided drought fodder in the past. After the war many were vacant and free grazing was possible. Today individual negotiations between community leaders and farmers have to take place. Some farms have been converted to game ranches and communal area cattle are strictly prohibited.

Gonarezhou National Park. Although grazing within the park boundaries is illegal, poach grazing is common, particularly in drought periods. Elephants often knock down fences in the park allowing ‘poach corridors’ to be created. The same occurs on a number of commercial farms that have extensive wildlife populations. In other cases, villagers will cut the fence to let their animals in.

Table 7 lists the range of pros and cons of the different movement options across the two sites mentioned by informants, while Table 8 assesses the relative importance of different movement options during 1982-84, 1991-92 and 1997-98 according to local informants.

Table 7. Pros and cons of different movement options.

Movement options Pros Cons

Vacant commercial ranges (1982-84)

No movement restrictions – free access; water was available in the Runde or the Tugwi rivers (ranch water sources had stopped working); no restrictions on cutting trees for building temporary pens and shacks for livestock and herders.

No dipping, livestock affected by ticks; budgeting twice (for herders and household); hiring herders ($10 per month + groceries or $100 per 3 months + 2 bags of maize); irresponsible husbands sold cattle privately and spent money on prostitutes; stock thefts occurred.

Resettlement areas Better grazing availability; exploitation of kin and friendship ties by loaning out (kuronzera) live-stock to resettled farmers; dips resuscitated and accessible; interdependence between resettlement and communal farmers.

Access had to be negotiated with resettlement committee; sometimes cattle strayed into nearby commercial farms where fines were $15 to $25 per beast; resistance by resettled community leading to violent confrontations; when grass was depleted livestock died in large numbers, e.g. Nyahombe in Chivi South.

Tugwi/Runde river valleys/hills and mountains

Availability of ‘green bites’; water available; temporary dwelling shelters usually sited in valleys near water; could combine herding and gold panning; no access restrictions.

River valleys heavily grazed; long distances between rivers and permanent homes resulted in reduction of watering frequencies; travelling stressed animals in poor condition; weak animals got stuck in mud in rivers; cattle fell off mountains.

Gezani (Sengwe CA) Good grazing in Gezani; access facilitated by kin and friendship networks between people and chiefs; mutual inter-dependence (Gezani rely on Ward 11 for draft animals, Ward 11 rely on Gezani for livestock grazing); Masukwe VIDCO officially permit borrowing of 6 cattle per household for draft purposes from Ward 11; grazing access negotiation also involved the local MP Mr Baloyi.

Current dissatisfaction at kraalhead level over cattle influx and grazing boundaries; Gezani communities erecting paddocks with World Vision funding will restrict cattle movement; Gezani cattle borrowers exceed VIDCO limits; poach grazing, breaking fences; hyenas and lions kill livestock; inadequate drinking water in Gezani; cattle may go without for 2 – 3 days

Gonakudzingwa SSCAs Friendship ties facilitate access; mutual arrangements, grazing for labour exchanges

Poach grazing; some SSCA farmers demand payment with heifers

National Parks, Edenvale ranch, JB ranch, Muraba ranch

Good neighbour relations facilitate access

Perception by Ward 11 farmers that grazing boundaries are artificial and imposed because long back culture did not have boundaries -–leads to rampant poach grazing; fines, livestock shot by commercial farmers

Source: Interviews and discussion groups.

Table 8. Relative importance of different movement options by year.

1982-84 1991-92 1997-98

Chivi central Vacant ranches ******* - -Resettlement areas - *** -Tugwi/Runde river valleys *** ******* -

Ngundu, Chivi Vacant ranches ***** ******* -Resettlement areas ** * -Tugwi/Runde river valleys *** ** -

Takavarasha, Chivi Vacant ranches ****** - -Resettlement areas - **** -Tugwi/Runde river valleys **** ****** -

Chikombedzi Gezani, Sengwe CA ****** ****** ******Muraba ranch * *** ***Gonarezhou National Park *** * *

Source: Compilation of matrix ranking exercises.

A number of themes emerge:

Livestock movement has been essential for the survival of communal area cattle in all recent droughts. Data from nearby areas confirm that early movement increase survival rates significantly (Scoones, 1992);

Movement outside communal areas, however, is increasingly constrained. Commercial farms and resettlement areas are now occupied and boundaries enforced;

The growth of the wildlife industry in the low veld in particular constrains movement options, both because of predation and because owners of the ranches are less willing to accommodate cattle;

Access is commonly negotiated on the basis of friendship on kin links with other communal areas, resettlement areas or small-scale farms. Access to such networks is critical in times of drought. However, free access is increasingly limited and refusals or exchanges only on the basis of cash or labour-in-kind are more common;

Formal negotiations with commercial farms, mediated through councillors or other village leaders are increasingly common. These result in restricted and controlled access, often for a fee. In other cases, no fee is charged and grazing is allocated on the basis of good neighbourliness (see Box 2);

Illegal access through poach grazing is common, and the limited capacity for enforcement means that, in most instances, this is possible. However, some cases of draconian enforcement (including the seizing of cattle and arrest of herders) have been observed;

Conflicts over grazing appear to be on the increase, with active squatting being observed on commercial farms and resettlement areas. This has resulted in violence on occasions (Box 2).

Despite the range of restrictions imposed by veterinary and other regulations, movement remains a key strategy during drought. District officials and veterinary officers recognise this, and, very often, a blind eye is turned and the complex movement permit system temporarily abandoned.

Box 2. Accessing grazing - some case studies

Chivi Dutch Reform Mission School. Before the war the mission boundaries were well marked and enforced. Fences were, however, cut and stolen during the war, and the mission farm became an open grazing area for nearby residents. Despite attempts by the police to evict grazers, illegal grazing has persisted. However, more recently a deal has been struck with local residents. When the pump supplying water to the mission broke down, the mission had to rely on water sources in the surrounding areas, the result has been that the mission authorities now waive prosecution of herders.

Tokwe resettlement area. Simmering discontent among Tokwe resettlement farmers over the illegal presence of Takavarasha herders and their livestock was brought to a head by disagreements over dipping and draft access. Resettlement farmers refused access of communal area cattle, as they said they were tick infested. In return, Takavarasha farmers refused to lend resettlement farmers draft animals, as had been the case in the past. The police failed to evict the communal area herders, who only left after their temporary dwellings were burnt by angry resettlement area residents.

Edenvale farm/Nyavasha safaris. In late 1997, after the rains had failed, Mr Macheke, a teacher at Chanyenga primary school, was sent to negotiate with the farm manager, Mr Schimper. 31 people from the community were registered, and allowed to put three cattle each into a small paddock for temporary grazing. By June 1998, the grass had been exhausted and the cattle were withdrawn.

Livestock marketing

A range of different marketing options exists for the sale and purchase of cattle during and after drought. These range from the formal weight graded auctions organised by the Livestock Development Trust (formerly by the Cold Storage Commission), to informal private sales or barter arrangements with commercial buyers or other farmers in the locality, to sales to butcheries.

Table 9 lists the pros and cons of these different marketing options according to different informants, combining information across sites. This information focuses on cattle where a range of marketing options exist. For other stock, however, owners must be reliant on local markets, and, to a limited extent, butcheries for goats.

Table 9. Pros and cons of different livestock marketing options.

Market Pros Cons

Monthly local Auctions

Largest number of cattle sold; good market frequency; no rigid health regulations, e.g. dosing, condemnation; cash paid; no transport costs (near); no bookings required.

Use of weigh bands cheats farmers with long narrow cattle; very low prices $3 – 5/kg live mass; no purchases if Foot and Mouth breaks out, quarantine periods of up to 6 months.

Direct slaughter to CSC Bulawayo and Tenda Meats

Prices Z$19-25 per kg cold dressed mass; free transport provided for 15 cattle (CSC) and 25 cattle (Tenda Meats); relatives and close friends in SSCA link up to muster enough cattle for free transport.

Rigid health regulations and grading – rejections possible; difficult to organise enough cattle for free transport; charged by some SSCA farmers for linking up to get free transport; cheque delays of up to 3 weeks; difficulties of booking in Bulawayo; no free transport for goats; head, offal, skins not paid for; no purchases if FMD disease outbreak.

Private buyers Bring scales; better prices compared to local auctions; bargaining possible; ready cash no health rigidity.

Lower prices than direct slaughter; no purchases if FMD breaks out.

Local butcheries Buys old, sick wounded animals (disposal market).

Extremely poor prices; butcher determines price taking advantage of farmer’s problem; payment after slaughter and sales; no purchases if FMD breaks out.

Selling to locals Better prices than butchery; selling even if there are disease outbreaks; ready cash for people not well known.

Delays in paying up if friends and relatives.

Table 10. Relative importance of different market options over time by year.

1982-84 1991-92 1997-98Chivi central CSC/LDT ***** * *

Private buyers - ***** ***Butcheries *** * **Local sales ** *** ****

Ngundu, Chivi CSC/LDT ***** **** **Private buyers *** **** *****Butcheries * * *Local sales * * **

Takavarasha, Chivi CSC/LDT ****** * **Private buyers - ****** ***Butcheries ** * *Local sales ** ** ****

Chikombedzi CSC direct slaughter * ** **Private buyers - - **

- Butchery - * *Locals (majonijoni) *** ****** *Local sales (showini) ****** * ****

Source: Compilation of matrix ranking exercises

Issues arising include:

Informants note that, although the formal market channel through (LDT/CSC) is not very reliable due to the frequent cancellation of auctions (especially during drought periods when there is a huge supply of cattle for sale), prices tend to be higher and more predictable. However, this outlet rejects low grade animals, which is a problem when animals condition has deteriorated during drought periods;

Following the liberalisation of agricultural markets in 1991, more private buyers are evident. Such buyers purchase different categories of animals to the formal marketing channel. They are particularly interested in younger male animals or animals of relatively poor condition which can be fattened for later sale. Relatively low prices are offered, but options for exchange exist (see below);

Barter arrangements have become increasingly significant as part of the private trade. Often commercial farmers will offer two heifers for one ox. The oxen is taken for fattening, while the heifers are useful to local farmers for restocking herds;

Within the communal areas there has been the emergence of entrepreneurs engaged in fattening enterprises. Sale and resale of livestock is linked to some capital base (often from local trading or remittances or pension income) and access to fodder (often irrigation schemes) (see Box 3);

With the decline in CSC run butcheries and less stringency on meat inspection, local butcheries have expanded in the rural areas. These offer very low prices, and sell, by and large, low quality meats. But these outlets do at least offer a last resort option;

Another form of purchaser has also emerged, involving civil servants resident in the rural areas (teachers, extension workers, nurses etc.) joining together in meat buying cartels. These groups often have a distinct network of suppliers and higher prices tend to be offered than local butcheries (see Box 3).

While communal area herders are by and large rather reluctant to sell animals early in the drought because of their high value for agricultural production and other service functions, the growth in the range and increased flexibility of marketing options has made sale more likely than in the past. The devastating experiences of the 1982-94 and 1991-92 droughts has also made cattle owners more sanguine about the prospects of survival, particularly in Chikombedzi.

Box 3. New forms of marketing arrangement

Commercial farmer bartering arrangements in Chivi. An increasing trade has emerged between commercial ranchers and communal area cattle producers, with ranchers coming to key selling points and buying up oxen and other animals for fattening, often in exchange for heifers.

Majonijoni in Chikombedzi. A few enterprising farmers – the Majonijoni: those who had gone to South Africa to earn money - pen fattened cattle that they bought during drought. They were later sent for direct slaughter at high prices. They took advantage of the 1991-92 drought and bought cattle cheaply. They worked flat out collecting mopane leaves, phombwe etc. to keep animals alive during the drought.

Teachers in Takavarasha. Local purchasing syndicates organised by civil servants – predominantly teachers – have dominated the livestock market in Takavarasha from 1997.

Discussion

Across the different response strategies - in situ fodder management, movement and marketing - some broad similarities are evident. Across both sites movement options are being increasingly constrained, with the result that in situ fodder management is becoming a more important alternative. The viability of this strategy again varies, with livestock in eutrophic savannah areas being heavily reliant on browse trees, while for those in dystrophic savannah areas, low lying key resource grassland patches are more critical. In both sites marketing options have become more varied since 1991, allowing a greater range of options for both sale and purchase, including the major growth of a barter trade between communal and commercial farmers.

This broad site level pattern is, in turn, differentiated by social groups. Those with large herds and large households (or alternatively with access to hired labour) invest more in movement, perhaps

negotiating particular use rights on an individual basis (including paying for grazing during drought). Other less wealthy herders with few cattle have to rely more on local resources and are particularly reliant on local browse and graze resources.

Many residents of both sites, of course, do not own any cattle at all, although they may own goats (this is particularly the case with women) (see section 2). Small-stock are much more resilient to droughts and require less herding labour and attention to fodder management. Much the same applies to donkeys that are able to gain sufficient fodder resources locally in all but the most severe droughts.

During a series of discussion group sessions held across both sites, farmers commented on the factors that have increased and decreased the effectiveness of drought responses since Independence in 1980 (Table 11).

On the positive side, ranges of interventions implemented by the government and NGOs have been seen to enhance the effectiveness of the drought response. Some were implemented with livestock drought management in mind (e.g. fodder tree growing, dams, and boreholes), others were more focused on agriculture (e.g. irrigation schemes), with positive spin-off benefits for livestock. Grazing schemes were mentioned as both having positive and negative impacts, depending on whether you were excluding others from a valuable grazing resource or were being excluded. Most grazing schemes have been implemented in areas where there is existing plentiful grazing and have acted to make this an exclusive resource for the nearby community. However, very often, such areas act as drought relief grazing for herders from further afield and, with the establishment of fence lines, this may no longer be available.

The two main policy strands of the government for the early 1980s - land reform - and the 1990s - economic reform - were both mentioned as contributing positively to drought responsiveness capacity. However, each had their downside. While the prospects for resettlement and increased grazing land access are often talked about, the result of the establishment of resettlement areas has been the reduced access for communal area livestock to such areas, unless good social networks are maintained. When these break down, conflict is the result (see Box 3). Economic reform has expanded the marketing options considerably, making sale and resale of stock much easier than in the past. However, economic reform has had highly negative consequences elsewhere, with declines in real wages, retrenchment and a general contraction of off-farm remittance earning opportunities. This has meant that such cash flows to the local economy have decreased, which were in the past essential for drought coping and management. The decline in public service provision was mentioned particularly in respect of veterinary services. The decline in dipping facilities has resulted in increased disease incidence, with cattle, in particular, suffering greater vulnerability in drought periods.

The reestablishment of commercial farming (both large and small scale) after the war has again had both positive and negative effects. The increasing enforcement of boundaries on such farms has again acted to exclude herders from nearby communal areas, and movement options have been reduced. However, this is overcome in some instances by the development of strong social links between the communal area and commercial farmers with the result that grazing is made available, even if sometimes for a fee. The increasing movement of commercial ranching out of cattle and

into wildlife (especially in the low veld) has had a negative impact, however, as wildlife pose potential dangers to grazing livestock. For those who have remained with cattle a growing barter trade has developed between the two sectors. This has improved the ability of communal herders to dispose of cattle during drought and restock them following (although the negative consequences for genetic stock have been noted).

Interestingly no externally derived drought intervention (as described in section 3) was mentioned as increasing drought response effectiveness. Indeed the only external intervention focussed specifically on drought was mentioned in a negative light, with the poor information provided through drought early warning systems being cited. Indeed, much of the reflection focused on how local systems of drought forecasting and response had declined in efficacy, with the finger of blame often pointed to the lack of effective political (and indeed religious) authority and leadership.

Table 11. Factors increasing and decreasing the effectiveness of drought responses since 1980.

Factors increasing the effectiveness of drought response

Factors decreasing the effectiveness of drought response

Increased numbers of markets and buyers through liberalisation.

New water supplies, including dams and boreholes built by both NGOs and government.

Irrigation schemes as sources of water and fodder. Severe drought experiences in 1982-83 and 1991-

92 resulted in new innovations in drought response and learning by people what to do.

Agroforestry has been promoted by NGOs and government, including fodder trees, both exotic (e.g. leucena) and indigenous.

Grazing schemes have been established which prevent others from entering and taking the grass during drought.

Tractor tillage options have been provided through the District Development Fund, although the costs of these have been too high for many.

New social networks have been established with commercial farmers, resettlement area residents and others to allow access to relief grazing in times of need.

Resettlement schemes have been declared, and there are expectations that with the new designations more land reform is in the pipeline

Alternative income sources have been generated, making reliance on livestock less critical.

Population has increased making less land available for grazing

Commercial and resettlement land has been occupied and boundaries are now being enforced.

Grazing schemes have been established with paddocks excluding others from entering during drought.

Labour availability has declined; in particular due to increased schooling.

Movement of livestock is increasingly restricted due to veterinary restrictions resulting from the Lomė convention agreements.

Veterinary services (especially dipping) have declined making livestock more vulnerable to drought.

Wildlife ranching has increased, making access to such areas dangerous.

National Parks have increased security excluding livestock.

Lack of remittance income to purchase feed due to structural adjustment (ESAP) and retrenchment.

Declines in political authority at the local level (through the imposition of the VIDCO system) have made negotiating for drought support and drought management difficult.

Declines in religious authority through lack of respect for ‘traditional’ practices have made drought effects worse.

Inappropriate information and extension advice has been given (e.g. over El Niño).

There has been a loss of expertise in indigenous systems of forecasting.

Source: Discussions held in Chikombedzi and Chivi, 1998

5. CASE STUDIES OF DROUGHT INTERVENTIONS

As part of this study, the team tried to identify the full range of drought-related livestock interventions in the two study areas which had been implemented from the 1991-92 drought period. Given the major impacts of drought on the livestock sector over the last decade, a remarkably limited range of formal drought interventions was identified in either study area. While there were some attempts at post-drought recovery interventions through restocking, this was not chosen as a focus for the study. In relation to drought planning and mitigation, the focus in both cases was on the provision of feed and water during drought, and involved investment in feeding pens and small dams. No specific interventions were identified which focussed on either movement or marketing options. Each of the interventions was a government initiative, although in several cases, NGOs became involved in the implementation and co-financing. The following sections give details of three such interventions that were studied in depth. The cases highlight what the intervention involved; who was involved; who benefited; what it cost; what the benefits were; and what problems were encountered.

Case 1: Bindagombe pen feeding scheme, Chivi

What the intervention involved:The Veterinary Department communal feedlots primary objective in 1992 was to rescue female cattle because massive drought deaths were posing a threat to the breeding herd. Eventually, all categories were considered when fewer animals turned up, because of initial farmer suspicions about the implications of the scheme. The remnant cattle population was very low and some farmers had lost female stock and wanted to save anything that was surviving.

Bindamombe in central Chivi and Vuranda further north, with capacities to accommodate 1200 cattle each at any one time, were the largest feedlots which operated from October 1992 up to January 1993 when grass became available. Smaller feedlots with capacities of 100 cattle each were built in 1993-94 as a contingency measure for future droughts at Nyambirai (Chivi South), Berejena and Nyevedzanai (near Chief Chivis homestead).

Who was involved?The Veterinary Department supervised a workforce made up of 33 kraalhead areas in Ward 18 that built pen structures. Later veterinary officers monitored feeding, recorded deaths of cattle, checked and cured diseases at farmers expense. Dipping was done every fortnight at Gwitima Dip. The Bindangombe infrastructure was built by kraalhead rosters with three kraalheads working together everyday. The Social Welfare Department chipped in with food-for-work assistance of 10kg maize meal per household per month for those involved. Wires, poles and cement were supplied from the Veterinary Department.

People and livestock that benefited:Cattle were brought from Wards 15, 17, 18 and 20. Dips in these wards were Gwitima, Tugwane, Nyamakwe, Chirogwe, Chikofa, Mandizvidza, Dzimati, Chongogwe and Rungai. Veterinary officers interviewed put the figure of cattle that survived droughts by utilising the feeding facility at around 3000. The ration was a mixture of sugar cane tops and molasses and was transported from Triangle Sugar Limited Company.

What it cost:Five huge pens each 100m x 50m were constructed with cement poles and 7 strand barbed wire fencing. Feeding troughs were built with cement, quarry stones and sand. Two Veterinary lorries made two trips each to Triangle transporting 150 x 50kg feed per lorry per trip. Triangle is 120km from Bindangombe feeding point. Feeding commenced in October 1992 up to January 1993.

What the benefits were:More than 3000 cattle were rescued. Initial resistance and suspicions were overcome due to extension efforts by Veterinary staff. Eventually there was an overwhelming positive response which saw some farmers struggling with cattle which could hardly stand on their own to make it to the pens. Contingency measures (e.g. the construction of other pens in Chivi in anticipation of future droughts) was seen as a timely intervention. The Bindangombe feeding pens were built close to the dam with the same name where livestock had access to ample clean water. The Veterinary staff was on hand to help with livestock health issues and to offer advice on other related subjects.

What the problems were:1. The scheme started late after the death of most cattle through starvation.

2. Initial farmer resistance and suspicions resulted in additional deaths of livestock. Some farmers initially opted to drive their cattle home every day (feeding was done mornings and evenings). More cattle deaths occurred among stressed cattle of these itinerant stockmen.

3. Cattle owners who resided far away were forced to live with relatives near the feeding point in order to feed their cattle every day. Their usual social life was disrupted and they sometimes caused household budget strains for their hosts.

Case 2: Barura dam project, Chivi south

By 1992 livestock deaths due to shortage of fodder were exacerbated by long distances livestock were travelling to drink water in the Tugwi and Runde rivers some 20-30 km away respectively. Mitigatory actions were the reduction of animal watering frequency to only once or twice per week and the purchase of water by wealthier households from ox-cart owners at Z$7.00 (per 200 litre drum). The community discussed and identified a small dam project option for livestock watering. Agritex and an NGO (Africare) were approached for assistance.

Who was involved?Agritex pegged the dam, while Africare donated construction inputs and transport, paid wages of hired builders and initially extended food assistance to the community involved in dam construction.

People and livestock that benefited:300 households in eight villages benefited. The villages are Vudzi, Joni, Tamwa, Munikwa, Sihambe, Dobhani, Matenhese and Chikanda. An average of 3000 livestock benefited (based on cattle dip records).

What it cost:Dam construction was from June 1992 to June 1994. Each of the eight villages (x 38 households) provided labour for dam construction alternatively (+ one day per village per week). Africare donated: + 1000 cement pockets (50kg); 5 rolls fencing wire; fencing poles; tractor for transport for the construction period; paid wages of three hired builders; assisted with mealy-meal for two months at about 90kg per each of the 300 households working at the dam.

What the benefits were:The completion of the dam in 1994 coincided with a better rainy season. Full water supply level was reached in 1995 and 1996, when the dam spilled.

The Barura dam project effectively ended livestock watering problems in Vidco D, Ward 23 in Chivi South. To date the dam has also served as an assured source of water for domestic purposes (washing, cooking, and bathing).

What the problems were:Livestock watering and domestic water were the original objectives of the dam project. With time the community identified a co-operative garden project which potentially will compete for water given the small dam size.

The community has work underway assisted by CARE another NGO to increase the dam wall height, construct sand traps across the stream feeding the dam to prevent siltation and to repair a leak in the dam wall. CARE will also provide fencing for the community garden project.

Case 3: Mpagati pen feeding scheme, Chikombedzi

What the intervention involved:By 1992 grass for livestock had practically run out. Phombwe, the survival tuber and other local feeds had been depleted. Leasing was a non starter. The Government, through the Veterinary Department, stepped in to save the communal breeding herd by setting up free pen feeding sites in all 8 districts of Masvingo Province. The Chikombedzi feeding point was established at Mpagati Centre.

Who was involved?The Veterinary Department supplied wires, poles and cement. The community built structures that included holding pens, crush pens and feeding troughs. The community operated a duty roster for feeding and watering cattle mornings and evenings. The survival ration, a mixture of sugar cane tops and molasses was transported from Hippo Valley Sugar Estate by rail to Mbizi sub-station 30km from Mpagati Centre. The Veterinary Department permanently assigned two 5 tonne lorries to transport feed from Mbizi to Mpagati 4 to 5 times per week.

The Veterinary Department was also responsible for overall monitoring of feeding operations and technical aspects of prevention and cure of cattle diseases. Vaccinations were carried out against quarter evil/malignant oedema and foot and mouth. Injections were administered when necessary to control heart-water and red water diseases.

People and livestock that benefited:An estimated 20 households from each of 7 dips in the area ultimately brought an average 5 to 6 cattle to Mpagati feeding scheme. The dips were Mpagati, Chomupani, Chanyenga, Gurungwena, Boli, Machindu and Chikombedzi. 16 Gonakudzingwa SSCA farmers also brought cattle, including the local MP Mr Baloyi.

What it cost:The Chief Animal Veterinary Inspector for Masvingo Province was interviewed after meeting with farmers. He reiterated: "It cost Z$1.0 million to erect the Mpagati feeding structures". Each district in Masvingo has one of the same size and cost constructed. The cost of feed itself was unknown, as a donor is said to have chipped in. The cost of transporting by rail from Hippo Valley to Mbizi was also unknown. Two x 5 tonne lorries plied the route from Mbizi to Mpagati 30km away 4 to 5 times per week from around January until the coming of the rains when cattle were released for grazing. Veterinary Department Staff did the loading and unloading as well as other duties and claimed travel & subsistence allowances. A District Development Fund (DDF) diesel engine was used for pumping water from a borehole for cattle watering.

What the benefits were:The Mpagati feeding scheme was thought to have saved 1000 cattle from death by starvation. Pen fed cattle conserved energy instead of losing it and dying while questing for food and water far away. One farmer, Mr Saul Makondo brought 125 cattle which all survived in the pens. Initially the scheme was aimed at saving only two breeding female cattle per household. Eventually any number was accepted when the estimated capacity of 1,200 cattle could not be achieved. Cattle were fed for months and released when grass was available. Only 11 cattle whose condition had seriously deteriorated died in the pens.

What the problems were: The scheme started too late to save cattle of most farmers that died in 1991.

During the early days of the scheme there was resistance by the (Shangaan) people in particular who were suspicious about intentions of the free feeding scheme. Rumour had it that for the two animals to be fed, food bills were to be exacted later.

To effectively operate the feeding duty roster farmers from far away had to stay in homes of relatives living near Mpagati Centre. Those without relatives travelled long distances every day.

Piped water was connected from the District Administrators rest camp to the pens after 1 months of the schemes inception. Before then cattle were driven to a borehole 1km away, posing a soil erosion threat particularly at the borehole site due to trampling by the large herd.

The exercise, as viewed by farmers, was expensive, albeit with donor participation in funding. Repetitive droughts are a common scenario in Chikombedzi, and given government financial woes coupled by donor unpredictability, repeatability of such schemes remains questionable.

Discussion

Overall, the interventions studied were not hugely successful. While they undoubtedly helped reduced cattle mortality, the interventions were initiated late and often in a way that resulted in mistrust with the local community. The hurried implementation of some of the schemes in the context of crisis management by government meant that, on occasions, local politics and patronage relations came to dominate their implementation. The siting of some of the pen feeding schemes, for instance, could be questioned. The costs were generally high, given the significant costs of fencing and transport. While the feeding schemes aimed to target breeding animals, and spread the benefits across a range of households, some stock owners managed to capture the benefits for large numbers of their stock. The degree to which the interventions could be regarded as part of contingency planning is unclear, although some feed lots have been established across Masvingo Province to allow a more rapid response in future droughts. The longer term impacts of such interventions are uncertain, given their high costs.

6. PERCEPTIONS OF DROUGHT

How do local people living in Chivi and Chikombedzi see drought? Understanding the multiple perceptions of drought across the range of stakeholders is a critical factor in designing any drought planning or intervention programme. Yet, it appears that most such initiatives take scant notice of how local people construct, interpret and respond to drought events. As described in section 3, standard drought programmes define drought, use information and design interventions in a particular way. It is important to explore whether the assumptions lying behind such interventions resonate with local understandings of drought, or whether, in contrast, drought perceptions of the planners and implementers of standard programmes diverge from local perceptions to a degree that miscommunication, lack of trust and unresponsiveness are the result.

This section looks at these issues, drawing on in-depth interviews carried out in both sites with a wide range of local informants. The section starts with a discussion of local definitions of drought, then moves to examine local indicators and early warning systems. Next, causes of drought according to local informants are discussed, followed by a brief reflection on local perceptions of the El Niňo phenomenon. The section concludes with a review of the implications of these findings for drought contingency planning, and particularly the articulation of different knowledge, networks and institutions.

Defining and predicting drought

In local terminology droughts are defined according to outcomes and effects, rather than causes (although these are discussed also, see below). In Shona, a drought is a year of insufficient food (zhara). In Shangaan, the word mbondoko implies no food in the granaries, while ndhlala means lack of rain. In both sites droughts are differentiated between those that affect crops and those that affect cattle. Extreme droughts affect both crops and livestock. In Shona, the saying mwana wakatsva dumbu mai vakatsva kumusana [both the childs belly and the mothers back were scalded] is used to refer to when the twin pillars of the local economy - livestock and crops - are affected.

Over time a number of very severe droughts are recalled - 1922, 1947, and more recently 1982-83 and 1991-92. Other less severe droughts of 1973, 1986 and 1998 are also remembered. However, it is only the extreme events that are marked out in peoples memories, as the variation between a poor year for crops, and a drought is difficult to tell, as many years are poor in these dryland areas. Indeed, in all years, even so-called good years, someone’s harvest is affected badly by poorly timed or decreased rains in their fields.

Each year, therefore, drought can be expected continuous, on-going in some form or other. Farming and livelihoods must respond to this uncertainty, through a responsive performance (cf. Richards, 1989) throughout the season. Each sign must be observed and taken into account. Local indicators of drought are therefore an important element of local drought contingency responses. Box 4 lists the range of local indicators noted by informants in both sites. These include bird and animal behaviours, tree phenology, wind direction and cloud formation. Some of these require specialist knowledge, with certain people in the village being expert in particular aspects of prediction; other indicators are widely known and the subject of general discussion at beer parties, in church congregations or at river bank gardens.

Box 4. Local indicators of drought

Chivi

Drought is expected if certain birds (cuckoo birds (whaya), nightjars (dabwa), pippits (ndondoza) and ground hornbills (dendera) do not call before the rainy season, or if butterflies do not fly eastwards in large numbers before the rains, or when the young of wingless, yellow spotted grasshoppers (magutaguta) do not swarm before the rainy season, or if red driver ants are not seen, or if baboons do not shout out loud from their mountan hideouts, or if hippos do not run up and down the major rivers.

Drought will be likely if wild fruit trees do not fruit abundantly (e.g. Parinaria curatellifolia, Diospyros mespiliformis, Ficus spp., Sclerocarya birrea, Strychnos spp., Lannea disclor were mentioned) or if Afzelia quanzensis (mukamba) fails to produce flowers (vudodzi) liked by cattle, the season will be bad.

Drought is forecast if early spring rain (gukarawhindi) expected after threshing in August or September fails to come, or if the winds do not blow south to north or west to east, or if whirl winds (chamupupuri) do not blow east to west, or if the sky is dominated by white clouds (mazhara = hunger clouds) or if mists were not common in June-August, or if cold weather was not experienced in June and July, or if very hot weather was not experienced between September and November.

If a dark circle was not noticed around the full moon before the rains, drought is predicted.

If natural fires do not occur on the mountains, poor rains are expected.

Chikombedzi

If doves start to break their own eggs to drink from them, the season will be bad. The season will be good, however, when the tshalatshala birds are much in evidence migrating north to south. But when the tshesa birds are not calling loudly, the season will be bad.

Drought is expected if mikaya trees flower too much or the mopane seasons produced too many pods.

The season will be bad if winds are blowing south to north.

If the crocodiles groan a lot the season will be good.

Sources: Interviews in Chivi and Chikombedzi.

Causes of drought

Local commentaries on the causes of drought lay the blame on a wide range of issues. Technical meteorological and agronomic themes become intertwined with social, political and religious explanations. There is no neat separation between such spheres in many peoples commentaries, and so, depending on different affiliations and beliefs, different causes are suggested. Local perceptions of drought causes, therefore, are made up of multiple strands of explanation, each embedded in the contexts of different actors. Risks, and particularly drought, are seen to be socially constructed, and any interpretation of perceptions and response cannot be removed from the social, political and religious contexts of everyday life.

If drought strikes it is important to articulate some level of causality. Simple bad luck or chance is not enough; some link to other aspects of peoples lifeworlds is suggested. Extreme uncertainty means loss of control and a sense of helplessness. Attributing blame, however, offers some level of security in an extremely uncertain world. Following a survey of farmers perceptions of drought carried out in mid-1992 across Chivi, at the height of the worst drought for years, Scoones et al (1996: 152) concluded:

Farmers perceptions of drought attempt to reduce the fears of uncertainty and the perils associated with losing control, both political and personal. Thus causes are attributed and blame for misfortune or disaster is ascribed. Drought is therefore not perceived as a chance event, but explained in terms of particular cause-effect relationships. Different people offer different interpretations, but all attempt to derive order from apparent chaos. Such perceptions offer a way of coping with the stresses and uncertainties of a crisis.

Moral decline and lack of respect for elders and so-called traditional practices was often the first issue mentioned as the cause of drought during interviews carried out during 1998 in Chikombedzi and the three sites in Chivi in July 1998.

Lack of respect for elders, prostitution, the throwing of aborted foetuses into rivers, shameless behaviour by old men and women, excess drinking and dancing, and mischievous activities with young people in townships were all listed by informants in Chikombedzi as causes of drought. In Chivi, informants added to this list. Women wearing trousers, sons-in-law eating from the same plate as the father in law, and modern clothes being worn at traditional rain-making ceremonies were all mentioned.

The failure of traditional rain-making ceremonies was mentioned by many informants as one of the main reasons behind the apparent increase in drought in the study areas. A variety of ways in which such ceremonies were not being carried out in the proper way were suggested.

Messengers to the Zame shrine (nyusa) now ask for a lot of money for the journey and travel by cars and sleep in hotels [Group meeting, Ngundu halt, 10 men, and 11 women].

Nyusas used to wear goat skins; today they put on suits [V. Masengwe, Maregere village, aged 50].

Finger millet grain (mumera) for brewing beer (mutoro) used to be placed in a rock pothole over which a little water was sprinkled and it would rain the same night. This is no longer done (J. Maunganindze, Gororo area, Chivi, age 54].

Finger millet grain (mumera) for rain rituals is prepared using water from wells and boreholes [Group meeting, Ngundu halt, 10 men, and 11 women].

Beer for rain making ceremonies is stored in modern utensils instead of clay pots and gourds [J. Maunganindze, Gororo area, Chivi, age 54].

The country received plenty of rains during the war because the comrades enforced respect for traditional laws that pleased the ancestors. Today traditional laws are not respected... Sacred places in our area are not respected. People go up Nhaurano hill cutting trees and grazing livestock. Witches anger ancestors by targeting lightning strikes and killing people [Machingauta, spirit medium, Muvundusi area, Chivi, age 65].

Commentaries on local politics and its links to traditional religious practice are central to local arguments. For example:

After the war, traditional leaders were disempowered and the administration was placed in the hands of the VIDCOs (village development committees) who stopped sending rain messengers to propitiate the spirits at Matonjeni [Discussion, Chikombedzi].

Similarly, the respect for sacred sites was seen to be particularly important. In Chivi, Mr Dewa commented that sacred places are now playgrounds for tourists. In discussions in Chikombedzi changing access to such sites was mentioned:

Sacred places like Chiumburu mountain are now ranches, and armed guards patrol the boundaries preventing people from pouring libations and snuff while communicating with the ancestral spirits. Some sacred places are in Gonarezhou National Park, while others, including the sacred ancestral grave at Zava, were cleared and levelled when protected villages and restriction camps were built during the war [Discussion Chikombedzi].

Many people in both sites mentioned Ambuya Juliana, a young female prophet who arrived in the area during the 1991-92 drought to great acclaim. Over the last few years when she has been travelling across this part of the country, visiting on several occasions both field research sites, she dwelt during her sermons on this discourse of decline in moral values and the ignoring of tradition. In an interview carried out with her during this research, she reiterated her complaints:

No nationality organised Matatenda beer was brewed to thank ancestors who assisted in the liberation of the country.

Kraalheads do not organise joint rain rituals as was done in the past. Rain messengers sent to Matonjeni board buses or wind up in hotels and restaurants sometimes

never reaching their destination. The wrong people are involved in doro remvura (brewing rain beer) e.g. suckling mothers,

prostitutes, and Zinatha n angas. Struggling for power between Councillors and Chiefs has over-shadowed rain-making

ceremonies. The country is governed in a foreign language (English) which annoys ancestors.[from interview with Ambuya Juliana, July 16 1998, Bokai mountain]

Others mentioned other rituals and practices that were no longer being heeded:

In the past children were ordered before the rains to collect all the sticks and stones they had thrown up in wild fruit trees. Today no one removes these stones and rain fails to come [Beer party discussion, Chivi]

Church goers denied that traditional rituals were needed. It is no good to do rituals they said, quoting Chronicles Ch 10, verses 13-14. Mbuya Juliana, they commented, is a thief and a sinner. In turn, various quotations from the bible were used to make the case that drought is Gods doing. Some took on a doomsday tone, with droughts and wars being seen as signs of the end of the world (Matthew, Ch 24, verses 1-15). Others commented on the rise of the “new churches”:

There are too many new churches, some led by mere youths indulging in immoral behaviour (wapusa wapusa). God is angry at this, and challenges these fake religions to prove their powers by denying people rain [Beer party discussion, headman Tarinda area, Chivi].

There are fake prophets and nangas using cover ups to indulge in theft and prostitution [Beer party, 5 participants, Gororo, Chivi].

The broader consequences of modernity were also a subject of comment. For example:

People are full of I know. There is too much western science; things like solar panels, televisions and going to the moon. All these things annoy the Creator (T. Mhiti, headman Chivi central, 84 years].

One informant at a central Chivi beer party observed that the war between Iraq and the United Nations exploded bombs which caused airspace disturbances. Similarly, another informant observed that the rock blasting carried out by the Chinese contractors when building the new road in Chivi also caused such disturbances, resulting in lack of rain.

El Niňo - 1997-98

During 1997-98, El Niňo was a focus of media attention, and discussions of El Niňo became part of local debates about drought. Scientists predicted a severe El Niňo event, with the high likelihood of serious drought ensuing during the forthcoming season. This prediction was made with such certainty, that government followed it up with recommendations for late planting and switching out of maize to more drought resistant crops. This advice was widely broadcast through the radio, in the newspapers and via extension workers.

Local perceptions of El Niňo were varied, and some are recorded in Box 5. While acknowledging that this was an important climatic event, no-one seemed quite sure what to make of it. Some farmers heeded the recommendations and ceased early planting, however those that ignored the warnings were lucky to capture the early rains in Chivi, and ended up being the most successful in terms of crop production.

Box 5. El Niňo: local perceptions

A wind which winnows ‘mhepo yechipepeto’ causing ‘mad rains’ (mamvura mupengo).

A hot wind originating from Western countries which prevents cloud formation. When it happens to rain the hot wind quickly dries the soil surface. It is believed to be made by some scientists.

A wind originating from South Africa which is laden with disease.

A dust laden wind from the east which prevents rain.

Hot wind coming from the seas which disturbs the coming of rains.

El Niňo is a band of thin unfertile clouds coming from the south. We understand El Niňo from radio and newspapers.

El Niňo is a traditional wind ‘mhepo yechikaranga’ the nyusa (rain messenger) will be demanding rain making ritual beer.

El Niňo is a wind that one cannot understand. Maybe a wind without direction which disturbs rain.

El Niňo is a confusing term. It is a ‘chumupupuri’ or whirlwind that disturbs rain coming.

El Niňo or chingwangwa is a strange animal living in the waters and when it comes out it causes strong winds disturbing cloud formation resulting in lack of rain.

Source: discussions in Chivi and Chikombedzi

Overall, across both sites, the rains were highly variable, with some areas receiving plenty of rain, and others receiving very little. The broad predictions were thus not of much use, and there were enough stories around where farmers had followed instructions and ended up worse off than those who had not that, by the end of the season, the credibility of El Niňo weather warnings had been seriously undermined. Some proclaimed, quoting Matthew Chapter 6, verse 15, Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly they are ferocious wolves.

Perceptions of drought risk are therefore central to any design of drought contingency planning intervention, for if the messages and directives being offered are incompatible with people’s perceptions of the issue, then responses are liable to be limited. Discussion of perceptions also raises the issue of trust between ‘official’ and ‘local’ actors. With the failure of government interventions to effectively address drought issues relating to livestock in the 1991-92, and the subsequent inappropriate messages arising from the El Niňo early warnings, trust appears to be at a low ebb.

Local responses that relied on a performative response to an uncertain and unfolding situation were thus the most effective, and certainly for livestock, where the broader warnings of impending drought with the advice to sell livestock early, were simply inappropriate. Adaptive responses, involving selective managed grazing and movement (in the case of Chikombedzi) proved the most effective responses (see section 4).

7. CONCLUSION: CHALLENGES FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING

A number of findings emerge from the analysis of the case studies presented in this report.

The negative impacts of drought on livestock, and particularly cattle, in the communal areas are increasing, in part because drought response options are increasingly constrained. Increasing levels of uncertainty due to climatic change will make finding ways of improving drought responses for livestock an important development imperative in the future.

The costs of recurrent drought on the livestock sector in the communal areas are significant, and possibly rising. Because of the close links between agriculture and livestock production, the loss of draft animals is particularly significant. Such high costs carry wider social and economic implications that justify public intervention in drought planning and mitigation.

The continued emphasis of government policy and intervention in the communal area livestock sector which focuses on cattle and beef production is misplaced, and results in inappropriate responses.

Past and existing formal interventions have almost exclusively focused on crops, and rather ignored the livestock sector. Doubts have been raised about the effectiveness of the existing early warning systems, and the degree to which they provide accurate and timely information of sufficient quality that local responses can be based on them. Issues of trust, styles of communication and the political context of such activities has been raised (see below).

External interventions that have occurred within the case study areas, aimed at offsetting the costs of drought for the livestock sector, have been limited. A series of case studies showed how these were often implemented late, served a relatively small number of people and were poorly targeted. They also were almost exclusively focussed on cattle, to the exclusion of other stock.

Local responses to drought are seen to be very different from the standard externally derived approaches. A range of options focussing on in situ fodder management; livestock movement and marketing have been discussed. These include temporally specific coping mechanisms in response to a particular drought event, as well as longer term adaptive shifts in livestock management strategies and practices.

A variety of factors act to constrain local responses to drought. For example, restricted access to surrounding farms or national parks reduces relief grazing; movement restrictions imposed by veterinary regulations reduces movement options; reduced remittance incomes undermines the ability to pay for external feed or herding labour and changing labour relations constrain the chances of effective herd management. By contrast, other factors have enhanced drought response capacities, including, for example, increasing social networks between communal and non-communal land users, and an increasing range of market opportunities has expanded sale and purchase options for livestock.

Adaptive and opportunistic responses to unfolding situations characterised by great uncertainty typify local responses. This contrasts with the formal externally desired responses which are associated with forecasting, risk based prediction and planning (see Table 12). The articulation of these two approaches is currently poor. Sometimes the externally derived approach acts to upset local responses, by providing confusing information and inappropriate interventions.

Perceptions of risk have a major influence on drought responses. These differ widely between different actors. Local constructions of risk link political, economic, religious and moral commentaries, and are deeply embedded in social and cultural understandings of drought and its causes. Risk perceptions are not factored into most externally derived early warning and drought planning approaches, as a technical forecasting and planning approach is promoted. However, local peoples risk perceptions are significant and condition attitudes to drought planning and intervention.

The networks through which information about drought conditions and response strategies flows at the local level and the formal level barely link. Local networks are characterised by informal social connections mediated through a range of local institutions, nearly all of which do not have drought functions per se. Formal networks are associated with particular, often centralised, organisations that provide largely technical forms of information to certain users. This information rarely directly reaches the local level, although it may do through the media. Levels of trust affect the relationships within networks and the acceptance or rejection of particular forms of advice.

Table 12. Comparisons between formal and local drought early warning, planning and responseFormal drought early warning, planning and response

Local drought early warning, planning and response

Understandings of drought Drought event; defined meteorologically.

Drought as ‘normal’ and expected; defined according to both outcomes and effects.

Understandings of risk and uncertainty

Focus on risk (knowable) and attempts to make uncertainty (not known) into manageable risks; technical focus.

Focus on uncertainty (the not known); culturally embedded constructions of risk and uncertainty.

Data and information Quantitative; technical; extrapolated; generalisable; based on predictive models.

More qualitative; based on experience and practice; reliant on ‘rules of thumb’.

Communication Reliant on formal channels of information flow, including the media; trust may be low; contribution and feedback is limited.

Dependent on existing knowledge networks and trust relations; local political and religious affiliations may be important.

Institutional and organisational arrangements

Expert institutions for early warning, planning and implementation; often centralised (nationally or provincially); irregular operation linked to drought ‘event’; delinked from other networks and relations; high transaction costs; low trust levels often apparent.

Linked to existing institutions and organisations (religious, political, social, kin-based etc.); part of regular and repeated behaviours of social and economic life; embedded in existing social networks and relationships; potentially high degrees of trust.

Nature of planning Technical planning frameworks, where risk factored in through contingency arrangements.

Adaptive, incremental planning in the face of uncertainty; surprise, serendipity and rapid responses key.

Focus of response Sectoral - livestock, agriculture, food supply; relatively inflexible projects implemented; targeted.

Livelihood focus; integrated response; flexible; inclusive.

The central issue raised by this comparison is the need to find more effective modes of articulation between formal and informal responses, built on a mutual understanding of perceptions of risk and causality, as well as a more focussed attempt to build trust around networks of communication and action across levels.

What is the most appropriate policy response to this situation? How could existing strategies for supporting livestock keepers in drought prone areas are improved? How can the broader aim of creating more sustainable livelihoods in such areas be achieved? These are, of course, not easy questions to answer.

Five different options exist for responding to risks such as drought, which suggest quite different, although certainly not mutually exclusive, avenues for policy and intervention (cf. Payne et al, 1994; Scoones, 1998). The following section therefore will explore these options for the Zimbabwean context, suggesting key areas for policy support, which emerges from this analysis.

1. Livelihood resources may be accumulated so that reserves and buffers are created for times when stresses and shocks are felt.

The livestock and land asset bases in the past used to provide exactly this sort of resource as a buffer (see section 4). However, both the number of livestock and the amount of land available to communal area populations has declined, making drought impacts severely felt. The options for gaining access to grazing reserves in times of drought is, in large part, reliant on good connections with commercial farmers and others with land nearby. This is dependent on the building of strong social networks and drawing on this social capital in times of crisis. The increasing enforcement of strict property regimes, however, makes this more difficult, as does the growth of the wildlife industry, particularly in the low veld.

A number of opportunities exist for intervention in this area, however:

Increasing the pace of land reform, especially the acquiring of land nearby existing communal areas for expanding grazing land. This remains an urgent priority, and is fully justified given the important contribution of communal area cattle to the national economy and social welfare;

Restocking programmes allowing herders to regain their capital base soon after drought is a key issue. However, current informal arrangements for restocking through exchange of cattle with commercial farmers may undermine the resilience of the system in the longer term through the importation of inappropriate genetic stock (see below). However, restocking with hardier breeds, and a greater emphasis on small stock and donkeys, may prove a more sustainable option.

Facilitating reciprocal grazing arrangements between areas, through the offices of the Rural District Council, including contingency plans for such arrangements with particular chiefs/headmen, commercial (large and small-scale) farmers, and national parks.

2. Activities associated with different aspects of livelihoods can be spread over space and time to avoid a drought affecting the whole range.

The importance of making use of spatial and temporal differences in landscapes in the management of livestock has been emphasised at various points in earlier sections of this report. With respect to livestock production, this requires making use of different grazing resources at different times of year, and encouraging a flexible approach to herding and grazing management, based on opportunism. This approach relies on complex herding arrangements, as well as livestock exchanges and loaning to households at some distance from the owners kraal.

However, flexible, opportunistic grazing strategies contrast with many conventional approaches, such as fenced grazing schemes, which tend to constrain livestock and restrict the opportunities for spreading risks over space and time.

Livestock production must be complemented with other livelihood activities that have different spatial and temporal niches and so face different risk profiles. Thus, a diversified agricultural base

with gardening, dry field farming, small stock and large stock raising encourages risk spreading. If this is combined with off-farm activities such risks are reduced yet future.

Avoid interventions that restrict the flexibility of grazing management. Fenced grazing schemes should not be recommended, for instance, in the drier areas of the country. Equally, veterinary restrictions on movement should be kept to the absolute minimum, with the permit system revised to increase efficiency and reduce excessive transaction costs.

Livestock exchange and sharing arrangements should be encouraged through support from extension workers who could facilitate the building of new sharing networks between areas; identifying demand and supply; and helping livestock owners apply for movement permits, if veterinary restrictions apply.

A diverse agricultural and livelihood system should be encouraged, with a range of activities in different spatial and temporal niches. The present relatively limited range of extension advice, focussing particularly on dryland farming, should be extended.

3. The mix of activities may be changed to reduce the covariance among different sources of risk.

The mix of livestock holdings in the study areas is certainly changing, and this is in part a response to the effects of recurrent drought. Cattle are increasingly being seen as a high risk option, and people tend to aim for relatively smaller herds that may be managed intensively, while adding to their livestock holdings through the purchase of more drought resistant goats and donkeys. While all livestock are affected by drought, as the data presented in section 2 shows, there are some major differences. Goats and donkeys are only affected by extreme fodder shortages and, in minor droughts, goats appear to thrive due to reduced water-borne parasite and disease incidence. While covariant risks are not reduced completely by this strategy, such a shift in livestock holdings has a risk reducing effect.

This is enhanced, of course, by extending livelihood activities into areas that are not rainfall dependent. The ranges of off-farm activities are important elements of livelihood diversification that result in risk reduction. Such activities have always been part of rural livelihoods in the study areas, but the range of such activities does seem to be on the increase, and this is particularly apparent during droughts (see Scoones et al, 1996 for details from Chivi during 1991-92).

A number of intervention options arise, therefore:

Research and extension support and advice is required for those wishing to change the mix of livestock holdings, and indeed change the management strategies for existing stock. Currently, relatively little R and E support is invested in goats and, particularly, donkeys, despite their increasing importance.

Again, the encouragement of off farm livelihood diversification is a key strategy for supporting livelihoods in dryland, drought prone areas. Yet, due to the focus on agricultural (and mostly crop-based) extension, such issues get relatively little attention in rural extension support from government.

4. Risk pooling options may be employed through various forms of insurance.

Insurance mechanisms for both agriculture, and particularly livestock, has not been a great success. Publicly provided insurance has been reliant on subsidies and been plagued by moral hazard problems, administrative burdens and political interference (Hazell, 1998). In dry areas, the frequency of drought events is usually too high to make insurance affordable. For livestock, the various problems more generically associated with insurance approaches are even larger, because of the mobility of animals, the difficulty of inspection and assessment. Insurance approaches, when they do operate, usually exclude the poor because of the high premium costs, unless major government interventions are applied (Hazell et al, 1986).

Some suggest that area based rainfall insurance is a way out of this bind, whereby contracts are written against specific rainfall outcomes at a local weather station, and insurance is sold in standard units in advance of any season-specific information on risks. Hazell (1998) argues that such a system avoids many of the moral hazard and administrative problems of conventional crop or livestock based insurance schemes, and that it can be sold to anyone in divisible units that are easy to market.

None of these options have been tried in the Zimbabwe context, and it is unlikely that a private insurer would develop such a system alone. However, the feasibility of area-based rainfall insurance might be worth investigating. 5. The overall resilience of the system may be enhanced such that the impacts of stresses and

shocks are less dramatically felt.

Earlier sections have suggested that the resilience of the livestock production system (particularly associated with cattle) has decreased over time. A number of factors have been identified which contribute to this. For example, less land area for relief grazing; decreasing woodland areas and indigenous trees for drought feed; and increasing susceptibility to drought and poorer drought recovery of exotic breeds now mixed with indigenous genetic stock, among (many) others. The challenge will be to find mechanisms by which such resilience factors are enhanced and new ones found. Such drought-proofing interventions are therefore key, and might include:

Increasing the pace of land reform, and encouraging relief grazing arrangements with neighbouring areas (see above).

Investing in woodland management approaches that see trees as important sources of fodder. This suggests changes in the tree selection, planting and management approaches to current approaches which tend to favour trees for timber, poles or woodfuel.

Exploring the potential and sustainable management of new drought feed sources discovered by livestock keepers in recent droughts (see section 4 for examples).

Paying attention to the changes in genetic stock of livestock herds (particularly cattle) in the communal areas, including the potential of introducing bulls of indigenous origin to improve the genetic stock of cattle in such areas.

Encouraging drought resistant crop varieties with plentiful stover production, so that during drought crops residues, if not grain will be available for livestock consumption.

All these options need to be pursued in parallel. There is no one way to reduce risk and different people will prefer different options, depending on their situation. But, no matter how much early warning information is supplied or what ingenous responses are developed to respond, such risks will never be eliminated. We must not be seduced by the prospects of prediction and precise planning, as this may undermine the flexibility of current strategies. The best approach is to be prepared for a range of possible eventualities, and be able to respond flexibly and in a timely manner to the situation as it arises. Uncertainty and surprise will always be evident, and so the type of adaptive, incremental responses that characterise what livestock keepers do is possibly the most appropriate mechanism of all. The real dangers come if such uncertainties are ignored and flexibility is reduced.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First we would like to acknowledge the generous assistance of the range of people in all study sites who offered their time and insights to this study.

In addition, a range of government and NGO staff in Masvingo and Chiredzi provided useful information on a variety of themes.

We would also like to thank the research assistants who worked with us in Chikombedzi (J. Mahenhene) and Chivi (F. Zivhu, E. Kandirosi, V. Masengwe, C. Dube).

This study was funded by a grant to the Natural Resources Institute, Chatham, UK and forms part of a wider study coordinated by Cary Hendy.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Blench, R. and Marriage, Z. (1998). The social and technical construction of weather: El Niño and other climatic events in sub-Saharan Africa. Paper prepared for the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum, Pilanesburg, South Africa, May 12-15, 1988.

Callear, D. 1997. Can we get policymakers to take notice of information on drought and imminent food shortages?

Cane, M., Eshel, G. and Buckland, R. (1994). Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea temperature. Nature, 370: 204-5

Cane, M. 1997. ENSO and its prediction: how well can we forecast it. Internet Journal of African Studies, 2, March 1997.

Hazell, P. (1998). Public policy and drought management in agro-pastoral systems. Paper prepared for the International Symposium on property rights, risk and livestock development, Feldafing, September 1998. ILRI/IFRPI/Goettingen University.

Hazell, P., Pomareda, C. and Valdes, A. (eds.) (1986). Crop Insurance for Agricultural Development. Issues and Experiences. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

Hendy, C, Hodgson, N., Martin, A., Sear, C. (1998). Lessons for drought contingency planning in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock sectors. Proposal for synthesis work. NRI, Chatham.

Internet Journal for African Studies. Issue, 2, March 1997. Using science against famine: food security, famine early warning and El Niño http://www.brad.ac.uk/research/ijas/ijasno2/ijasno2.html.

Kinuthia, J. 1997. Global warming and climate impacts in southern Africa: how might things change? Internet Journal for African Studies. Issue, 2, March 1997.

Ministry of Lands, Agriculture and Water Development (1992). National Livestock Policy Paper. MLAWD, Harare.

Nicholson, S. And Kim, E. (1997). The relationship of the El Niño Southern Oscillation to African rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 17: 117-135.

NRI/ODI (1998). Lessons for drought contingency planning in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock sectors. NRI/ODI, London.

Rook, J. 1997. The SADC Regional Early Warning System: Experience gained and lessons learned from the 1991-92 southern African drought.

Scoones, I. et al (1996). Hazards and Opportunities. Farming Livelihoods in Dryland Africa. Lessons from Zimbabwe. Zed Press, London.

Scoones, I. (1995). Contrasting savannah dynamics: implications for livestock populations in Zimbabwe’s dryland communal areas. In: Ganry, F. and Campbell, B. (eds.). Sustainable land Management in African Semi-arid and Sub-humid regions. CIRAD, Montpellier.

Scoones, I. (1992). Coping with drought: responses of herders an livestock in contrasting savannah environments in southern Zimbabwe. Human Ecology, 20: 293-314.

Sithole, B., Mukamuri, B. and Wolmer, W. (forthcoming). Crop-livestock integration in Zimbabwe. Report on the DFID LPP programme. IES, Harare.

Thomson, A., Jenden, P. and Clay, E. 1998. Information, Risk and Disaster Preparedness. Responses to the El Niňo Event. SOS Sahel, Report to DFID, London.

Unganai, L. (1996). Historic and future climatic change in Zimbabwe. Climate Research, 6: 137-145.