www.aacc.edu/future building the future: learning, teaching - topics, tools and tasks by steve...
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Building the Future: Learning, Teaching - Topics, Tools and Tasks
BySteve Steele
Institute for the Future @ Anne Arundel Community College www.aacc.edu/future
Presented at Fullerton CollegeOctober 31, 2005
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"When you come to a fork in the road,take it!”
Yogi Berra
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Why I’m here today: Mission for the Institute for the Future @AACC
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• IF seeks to enhance learning by integrating futures methodologies into strategies for learning
• provide strategies for understanding the future to the community and consulting to area businesses and other organizations.
• provides growth and development opportunities for AACC faculty, staff and students…
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Where we’re headed today…
• Topics: Why the future is importantWhy worry about the future?
• Tools: How to think about it Four ways to view the future…Simple– powerfulFour P’s and a W!
• Tasks: Including futures in courses around the curriculum A simple powerful tool for futurizing:A futures wheelAnatomy of a futures exercise for your course
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Topics: Why the future is important
“A Time of Convulsive Change Every crisis should be a reminder to us of the
importance of thinking now about the future.” • “The importance of thinking ahead is growing
rapidly because the pace of change is accelerating.”
• “…Almost everything seems to be coming unstuck”
From the Future: An Owners Manual. World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/ownermanual.htm
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Why…?• The Importance of the Future
”..what we can plausibly expect …so we can understand … our options.”
A very serious mistake:“…it is impossible to know anything about the future, so the future can simply be ignored.”
“Learning what we can know about the future enables us to think constructively…” We can build our social realities.
“We … really do have the ability to think constructively about the future…”
“Proactive, future-oriented thinking can lead to greater success.”From the Future: An Owners Manual. World Future Society
http://www.wfs.org/ownermanual.htm
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Why…?
• We already think about the future, why not do it in a more active, proactive manner?
We may not be able to exactly predict but we can thoughtfully address the future.
What we do now has an influence on what we will be.
• Role of future thinking in business, government, education, health, religion, family…
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Summary:Value of Looking into The Future
• You can have a hand in your future
• “How can you get there if you don’t know where you want to go?”
• Acts as a magnet for action
• Makes purposive action possible
• It will always change, it’s rarely clear…
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Tools: How to think about it Four Approaches for Future Visioning
• Reactive
“The future is pretty much like the past…”
0
10
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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• Inactive
“You can’t worry about it, just be prepared to “go with the flow…”
Four Approaches for Future Visioning
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• Preactive
“You need to be scanning the environment to ride trends…”
Four Approaches for Future Visioning
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• Proactive
“You need to be scanning the environment and interact with and on trends…”
• Adapted from Ackoff R. (1981). Creating the Corporate Future. New York, NY: John Wiley .
Four Approaches for Future Visioning
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The Future: Four P’s and a W
• Possible – what are the outer limits of what could happen?
• Plausible/Probable – what are the more realistic options – high probability (high impact?)
• Positive/Preferred – futures that we want, are valued.
• Preventable – acting now to address undesirable futures
• Wild cards
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Wild Cards
“An unpredictable factor”http://www.wordwebonline.com/search.pl?w=wild+card
• Wildcard Breakthroughs That Could Change the World
Examples from Out of the Blue (Madison Books) by
John Petersen, Arlington Institute
• Loss of intellectual property rights• Virtual reality revolutionizes education• Humans directly interface with the net• Extraterrestrials arrive
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Wild card example -
• “There's a guy in Michigan who says he's figured how to get 70 percent efficiency out of photovoltaic cells. Well, the average efficiency in a photovoltaic cell is somewhere around 10 percent. If it increases by 50 percent then that's a really big deal.”
GBN Global Business Network http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=13130
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With a possible eye toward …
• Thinking about the future in your work
• Using the future as a teaching tool
• Thinking about your present in light of your past and your future
• “Making” new realities
• Building personal futures.
• Dealing with uncertainty
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A Quick Exercise for “Making” a Future
• What are some likely futures? The visioning thing…
• Adapt? Anticipate? Proactive? Float?
• Possible, plausible, positive, preventable
• Proactive? … requires a little creativity!
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A futures building tool: a futures wheel
The Proble
m
Possible impacts?
Possible impacts?
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Your turn… building a future
Artificial Intelligence becomes readily available in the learning industry
?
?
?
?
Impacts?
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Tasks: Including futures in courses around the curriculum
• What does teaching and learning about the future demand?
1)Creativity
2)Product and reality construct- centered: results
3)Increased breadth, depth and collaboration – cross disciplinary
4)Responsibility and respect
5)“Use it or lose it…” Active learning
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Tasks: Anatomy of a Futures Exercise for Your Course
• Some Resources easy and handy -on the left toolbar on www.aacc.edu/future
Questions & Answers @ the Future Trends, forecasts and future views Resources for Addressing the Future Tools for Teaching the Future Core Futures Book List
• Tools for teaching –http://www.aacc.edu/future/teacherfeature.cfm
• Exercises - Enhancing Understanding of the Future http://www.aacc.edu/future/exerciseshome.cfm
• Building a futures exercise http://www.aacc.edu/future/futuresexercise.cfm
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Tasks: Start with the end first.
• 1) Start with the end first. What should learners “get out of the exercise?” Some possible futures outcomes might include -
• To understand the factors that might influence a future state.
• To use math or statistics to estimate a future state or condition.
• To use writing and thinking strategies to outline a future scenario for any discipline or field… society itself.. the list goes on.
• Your Exercise:
What should learners “get out of the exercise?”
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Tasks: What should learners be able to DO when they’re finished?
• 2) What should learners be able to DO when they’re finished?
• To write about..To calculate…To creatively think about…To critically think about…To apply course concepts to…
• Your Exercise:
What should learners be able to DO when they’re finished?
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Tasks: Include the future in the exercise.
• 3) Include the future in the exercise.
Some ways -Use existing information and ask learners to project it into a future time.Use future predictions and learners critique the process by which the estimate or scenario was made.Use an existing future thinker’s view and ask learners to think creatively about the possibilities.
• Your Exercise:
Include the future in the exercise.
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Tasks: What’s the format?
• 4) What’s the format?
What should the learner’s product look like when finished?How long, short, big, small, should it be?Electronic? Other form?When and how do you want it delivered?
• Your Exercise:
What’s the format?
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Tasks: One example
• Here’s one example:Objectives-In this exercise you will be using an existing future thinker’s view, imagine and write about the possibilities in a brief two-page impact assignment.
Steps to completion -1) Read "How are new capabilities within communications technologies going to change the shape and scope of human communities?" by - Tim Mack, President, World Future Society.
• 2) Describe the situation that Mack contends to be emerging in human communities. What factors are causing this?
• 3) Suppose Mack is correct, in what ways will human life change by 2050? Support your thoughts.
• 4) In what ways might Mack be “wrong?” Indicate why you think so.• 5) Send this assignment to your professor by email at xxx@xxxx (or submit
it on date).
• See http://www.aacc.edu/future/exerciseshome.cfm for more examples of class exercises by teaching faculty.
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Stop by IF @AACC…
• See questions and answers on the future at http://www.aacc.edu/future/qandaarchives.cfm
• See back issues of futureportal at http://www.aacc.edu/future/futureportalarch.cfm
• Use IF@AACC (www.aacc.edu/future ) in your teaching and learning