WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires

What's at stake for domestic support

Nelson Illescas – INAI Foundation

February 22, 2017 - IFPRI

Agreement on Agriculture

2

Market access

Export Competition

Domestic Support

Producer Support Estimate – (%PSE)

Source: Generated by the authors based on data from OECD and Agrimonitor-IADB.

Importance of domestic support in agriculture

61%

54%49% 49%

45%

24%19% 19% 18% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 11%

9% 8%5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%

-23%

Three year average (2010-12)

ERAMA Zero PSE

Demand shock Shock & Zero PSE

10%

Baseline

2025

Elimination

all measures

Elimination

all measures

Co

nte

xt

Producer support

Simulated

Scenarios

5

ERAMA Zero PSE

Demand shock Shock & Zero PSE

120

154 179

142

Co

nte

xt

Producer support

World

grain and

oilseed

imports(Billion USD)

6

16.4%

17.6%

7

1.8%67 000 t

1.8%118 000 t

20%195 000 t

Demand shock (Zero PSE)

Erama(Zero PSE)

3.4%101 000 t

1.5%90 000 t

23.4%171 000 t

ABPUNet

ExportsChange

8

ABPUNet

ExportsChange

4.4%97 000 t

19.3%18 352 000 t

10.7%2 726 000 t

Erama(Zero PSE)

10.9%218 000 t

19.2%17 209 000 t

11.1%2 673 000 t

4.8%520 000 t

13%1 161 000 t

Demand shock (Zero PSE)

9

40 420 000 t

3 311 000 t

Erama(Zero PSE)

38 091 000 t

3 147 000 t

2 289 000 t 20 478 000 t

1 141 000 t 1 128 000 t

NetChange in Imports

Demand shock (Zero PSE)

Different approaches

• Domestic support• Reduction of commitment levels? New rules?

• De minimis

• Notifications

• Cotton

• Market Access?

• Export Competition

• Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes

• Special Safeguard Mechanism

Future developments

Different analysis proposed in Domestic Support

Analysis of the other pillars

Elaboration of alternative proposals

Contact UsINAI Foundation

Street: Av. Corrientes 127 4ºBuenos Aires - Argentina

nillescas@inai.org.ar

www.inai.org.ar

+5411 43121092

@Fundacion_INAI

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Fundación INAI