Will Steffen

The Anthropocene:Where on Earth are We

Going?

Photos: Tas van Ommen, Australian Antarctic Division

Human Development andEarth System Dynamics

Evolution of fully modern humans in Africa

Hunter-gatherer societies only

Beginning of

agriculture

Adapted from Steffen et al. 2004; ice core data from Petit et al. 1999

Aborigines arrive inAustralia

Beginningof

agriculture

Great Asian,European, African,

Americancivilisations

Human Development andEarth System Dynamics

Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004

First migration of fully modern humans

out of Africa

Migrations from South

Asia to Europe

Holocene

Fires, Floods and Cyclones: A window into the future in the Anthropocene?

Human Imprint on Marine Ecosystems

Globally 74-78% of allfish stocks are fullyexploited, over-exploited,depleted or are recoveringfrom depletion

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005,Steffen et al. 2004

Atlantic cod fishery

Human Imprint on the Terrestrial Biosphere

From landscapes togenes…

Global Change and the Anthropocene

Steffen et al. 2004

Anthropocene graphs

!!!!

Vertical axis is ahuman activity or animpact on the EarthSystem. All variablesshown in a linearscale.

From Steffen et al. 2004

The Human Enterprise

• Population• Economic Growth• Freshwater use• Resource consumption-

fertilizer, paper• Urbanization• Globalization• Transport• Communication

Note ”The Great Acceleration” from 1950 to

2000

From: Steffen et al. 2004

The Global Impact

• Greenhouse gases• Ozone depletion• Climate• Marine ecosystems• Coastal zone• Nitrogen cycle• Tropical forests• Land systems• Biodiversity

National Geographic, March 2011

I = P x A x TVisualising the Great Acceleration

I - impact

P - population

A - affluence

T - technology

Holdren and Ehrlich 1974; National Geographic 2012

Source: Moran et al., Ecological Economics, 64, 470-474, 2008

The dilemma of the Anthropocene

Human well-being

Glo

bal I

mpa

ct

The 21st Century:A bright future of continued growth? Or…

…saililng towards a global collapse?

Lessons from the Past

The Greenland Norse

Year AD

Jette Arneborg

Lower Rhone Valley1000 BC - 1000 AD

The Roman Empire:Resilience and Constraints

Roman SettlementPatterns

Sander van der Leeuw

Reorganization from large villages to dispersed hamlets

Re-aggregation

Regional depopulation

Michelle Hegmon

North American Societies:Resilience, Transformation

and Collapse

Dennis Holloway

Possible Explanations for the Collapse of Early Civilisations

• Tainter - increasing complexity & decreasing resilience

• Friedman - waves of ’globalisation’ to an upper limit of system compatibility

• Diamond - inflexibility of core societal values

“…if we focus on other features of the past than humanity’s progress, we might find a human history marked by crises, regime shifts, disasters, and constantly changing patterns of adjustment to limits and confines. Indeed, this now emerges as a new historical meta-narrative, linking humanity’s creative past with its destructive consequences and nature-culture interplay…”Sverker Sörlin & Paul Warde 2007

On the techno-scientific approach to progress

The Anthropocene in the 21st century:The 2000-2010 Decade

• China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and others

are beginning their Great Acceleration.

• The world is reaching hyper-connectivity - the global financial crisis

• We are reaching several “peaks” – oil, phosphorus, health?

• Humans have constructed an artificial chromosome and

inserted it into DNA; towards synthesis of life itself

Steffen et al. 2011

Biodiversity in the 21st century

• Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history.

• 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Exti

ncti

on

Rate

Distant Recent Future Past Past

Peak Oil

Sorrell et al. 2009

Oil and food price trends, 1999 - 2011

World Bank Commodity Price Data

FAO Food Price Index

Analysis of the Global Food Crisis:A Systems Perspective

Biggs et al. 2010

Global-scale linkage of processes producing shocksthat emerge simultaneously, spread rapidly and interact.

The ingredients for a cascading crisis?

• Powerful global scale drivers (oil price spike)• Propagation of shocks through increased global connectivity• Knock-on effects of management responses elsewhere

The Anthropocene

A Systems Perspective

Sources: Petit et al. 1999; Scheffer 2009

The Earth as a Complex SystemGlacial state Interglacial (warm) state

Sources: Petit et al. 1999; Scheffer 2009

The Earth as a Complex System

Limit Cycles

CO2

Temperature

CH4

Northern hemisphere surface temperature

Mann et al. 2003 (EOS)

Post-industrial temperature rise

Temperature rise: Beyond the envelope of natural variability?

Implications of accelerating climate changeIPCC temperature projections

IPCC 2007

2

4

3

5

6

1

0

Glo

bal

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

IPCC Projections2100 AD

N.H

. Te

mpera

ture

(°

C)

0

0.5

1

-0.51000 1400 1800 2000

Now

Earth System moves to a new state? Severe challenge tocontemporary civilisation. Possible collapse?

IGBP PAGES200 60

0

Return towards aHolocene-like state?

Tipping Point?

Transition to a new, muchhotter state of the

Earth System?

Implications of the Anthropocene

Planetary Boundaries

Rockström et al. 2009

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Ozone depletion

Global Freshwater Use

Rate of Biodiversit

y Loss

Biogeochemistry: Global N & P

Cycles Atmospheric Aerosol Loading

Land System Change

Chemical Pollution Planetary

Boundaries

Rockström et al. 2009

Defining the safe operating space

Rockström et al. 2009

constant rate 3.2 mm/year

Evolution and the Anthropocene

Source: Katherine Richardson, Copenhagen University

Darwin’s insights about the origin ofhumans - that we are apes, a part of nature (not above it) - challenged deeply held beliefs about the human-environment relationship.

Will the Anthropocene evoke a similar level of deep emotion in the public? Can humanity really affect the functioning of its ownlife support system at the planetary scale? What are theimplications of this for our definition of “progress”, our way of life and our future?

Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees.

Revelation 7:3, the Holy Bible

Perspectives on the Human-

Environment Relationship

Most Gracious is Allah, Who reveals HimselfIn the Qur'an, in man's IntelligenceAnd in the nature around man.Balance and Justice, Goodness and Care,Are the Laws of His Worlds....

Summary from Surah 55, the Holy Qur'an

Without the willow, how to know the beauty of the wind.

Lao She, Buddhist monk

We're only here for a short amount of time to do what we've been put here to do, which is to look after the country. We're only a tool in the cycle of things. …(we) go out into the world and help keep the balance of nature. It's a big cycle of living with the land, and then eventually going back to it....

Vilma Webb, Noongar People, Australian Aborigines, from: 'Elders: Wisdom from Australia's Indigenous Leaders’

© S

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…where on Earth are we going?

The Anthropocene…