world trade report 2014 slide presentation, part e
TRANSCRIPT
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WORLD TRADE REPORT 2014
Professor: OH, Joon Seok
Presenter: KUY, Daranita
Part E: Increased Synchronization and Globalization of Macroeconomic Shocks
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Content: Macroeconomic Volatility of Developing
Countries Developing economies in the 2008-09 crisis Trade Policy reaction to the crisis
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I. Macroeconomic Volatility of Developing Countries
Defined as volatility in the cyclical component of GDP Reduce growth Worsen income inequality
The sources of this volatility in developing countries: Domestic factors External factors (openness of a country to
trade and its integration with the global economy)
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Trade Openness and volatility (+) Global Value Chain was highlighted in
the transmission of macroeconomic shocks - Bullwhip Effect
Trade Openness and volatility (-) A source of diversification, multiple
trading partners small demand shocks Export structure matters
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Declining volatility over time
All the developing countries show higher volatility than OECD members but there is a clear download trend for all the groupings beginning around 1995
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II. Developing economies in the 2008-09 crisis:
Global Trade has been the transmission belt Dependency of development between developing and developed countries
Developing economies have been primarily affected by the contraction of Trade Finance.
Reassessment by global bank
Stop financing facilities
Shortages of trade finance
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Developing economies are part of the policy response leads to faster recovery
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III. Trade Policy reaction to the crisis:
(a) Trade policy response: Trade-restrictive measures Trade-opening measures
(b) Coordinated macroeconomic response(c) No increase in trade protectionism
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(a) Trade Policy ResponseTrade-restrictive measure:
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(a) Trade Policy ResponseTrade-opening or Liberalization measures
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Trade-Restricted and Opening Trade
• Developed G-20 countries (Trade remedy)
• G-20 developing countries (import duties, customs procedure)
(a) Trade Policy Response Developed
G20 Countries
Developing
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(b) Coordinated macroeconomic response
The fiscal policy: Enormous assistance give to the financial sector and some manufacturing industries (e.g. the auto industry)
The monetary policy: Response to crisis more pronounced on developed countries, short-term interest rates were reduced
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(c) No increase in trade protectionism:
Government gain more by sticking to trade agreement Policy instrument better suited to managing the failing
demand Spread of Global Value Chains increase linkages among
countries Raising trade-barriers would have proven to be ineffective
in promoting economic recovery
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Summary:
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THANK YOU!