world trade indicators 2008 gianni zanini and roumeen islam singapore, july 18 th, 2008
TRANSCRIPT
World Trade World Trade Indicators 2008Indicators 2008
http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008
Gianni Zanini and Roumeen IslamGianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam
Singapore, July 18Singapore, July 18thth, 2008, 2008
What is the WTI Project?What is the WTI Project? Comprehensive database of trade-related Comprehensive database of trade-related
indicators of policy and performanceindicators of policy and performance Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07))Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07)) Information on other trade databases and linksInformation on other trade databases and links
Online ToolOnline Tool Country rankings (default and customized)Country rankings (default and customized) Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized)Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized) Users can choose time periods and country groupsUsers can choose time periods and country groups
210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) 210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) tablestables
139 Country briefs139 Country briefs Overview reportOverview report
Why?Why?
Provide impetus for trade policy changes by Provide impetus for trade policy changes by highlighting performance relative to highlighting performance relative to competitors/partners competitors/partners
Support trade negotiations and policy design Support trade negotiations and policy design by facilitating overtime and cross-country by facilitating overtime and cross-country comparison of different dimensions of policy comparison of different dimensions of policy affecting trade outcomesaffecting trade outcomes
Highlight gaps in the dataHighlight gaps in the data
Has Some New IndicatorsHas Some New Indicators
Database assembles existing information Database assembles existing information and provides new indicatorsand provides new indicators
Production weighted tariff averagesProduction weighted tariff averages Share of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rateShare of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rate MFN zero duty imports and exportsMFN zero duty imports and exports Imports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUsImports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUs Utilization rates and value of EU and US preferencesUtilization rates and value of EU and US preferences Extent of services trade liberalization commitmentsExtent of services trade liberalization commitments Index of import concentration from UNCTADIndex of import concentration from UNCTAD Export and import destination concentraton indicesExport and import destination concentraton indices Share of top 5 exports in total exportsShare of top 5 exports in total exports
Structure of WTI database: Structure of WTI database: organizing for usersorganizing for users
TRADE OUTCOME
TRADEPOLICY
EXTERNALENVIRONMENT
TRADE FACILITATION
BUSINESS/INSTITUTIONALENVIRONMENT
WTI FunctionalitiesWTI Functionalities
Views (see handout)Views (see handout) Country RankingsCountry Rankings Country SnapshotsCountry Snapshots Country ComparisonsCountry Comparisons Overtime ComparisonsOvertime Comparisons MapMap
Ranking by trade policy I: Ranking by trade policy I: 2006, top 20, 2006, top 20,
MFN TTRIMFN TTRI Indicators Category Trade Policy
TTRI (MFN applied tariff) - All GoodsRank Country 2006-07 latest
1 Hong Kong, China 01 Singapore 03 Switzerland 0.976894 Turkey 1.521255 Papua New Guinea 1.687636 Mauritius 1.965277 Iceland 1.983938 Kazakhstan 2.055719 Norway 2.09762
10 Israel 2.3489911 United States 2.4235912 Moldova 2.94565
13 United Arab Emirates 2.9591514 Australia 3.0819115 Canada 3.3325916 Kyrgyz Republic 3.500517 New Zealand 3.547518 Brunei 3.7479219 Taiwan, China 3.7549920 Malaysia 3.77901
Ranking by trade policy II: Ranking by trade policy II: 2007, top 20, 2007, top 20,
MF
NM
FN
Ap
pli
edA
pp
lied
2007
Tar
iff
Ave
rag
e20
07 T
arif
f A
vera
ge
2006
im
po
rt20
06 i
mp
ort
wei
gh
ted
wei
gh
ted
Indicators Category Trade Policy
MFN applied tariff - Weighted
Average - All Goods (%)Rank Country 2006-07 latest
1 Hong Kong, China 01 Macao, China 01 Singapore 03 United States 1.932624864 Mauritius 2.0734088715 Georgia 2.2527862256 Norway 2.3033730297 Taiwan, China 2.353657668 Papua New Guinea 2.371868499 Japan 2.8377997710 Haiti 2.86843405911 Israel 2.88340434512 Iceland 3.03515524113 Switzerland 3.03526767214 EU 3.10666348315 New Zealand 3.38629315716 Philippines 3.40640431117 Canada 3.70684929718 Moldova 3.78069706619 Indonesia 3.81203117220 Kyrgyz Republic 3.923271407
Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20, equal weights07, top 20, equal weights
Rank Country Trade PolicyExternal Environment
Institutional Environment
Trade Facilitation
1 Singapore 1 43 1 1
2 Norway 9 16 11 16
3 Canada 15 21 7 10
4 Switzerland 3 33 16 7
5 I srael 10 9 29 33
6 Hong Kong, China 1 71 4 8
7 United States 11 63 3 14
8 United Kingdom 21 73 6 9
9 Denmark 21 73 5 13
9 Sweden 21 73 14 4
11 I reland 21 73 8 11
11 Malaysia 20 42 24 27
13 Germany 21 73 20 3
13 Netherlands 21 73 21 2
15 Finland 21 73 13 15
16 Austria 21 73 25 5
17 Belgium 21 73 19 12
18 Turkey 4 37 57 34
19 France 21 73 31 18
19 J apan 52 73 12 6
19 Taiwan, China 19 53 50 21
Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20 developing, equal 07, top 20 developing, equal weightsweights
OverallRank Country Trade Policy
ExternalEnvironment
InstitutionalEnvironment Trade Facilitation
11 Malaysia 20 42 24 27
18 Turkey 4 37 57 34
23 Chile 65 16 33 32
27 Latvia 21 73 22 42
33 South Africa 62 49 35 24
34 Hungary 21 73 45 35
35 Slovak Republic 21 73 32 50
36 Lithuania 21 73 26 58
39 Papua New Guinea 5 5 84 95
40 Bulgaria 64 36 46 55
41 Poland 21 73 74 40
42 Mauritius 6 44 27 133
43 Mexico 107 4 44 56
44 Thailand 71 98 15 31
46 Peru 76 33 58 59
47 China 57 59 83 30
48 Oman 109 26 49 48
50 Romania 116 23 48 51
51 Kazakhstan 8 30 71 134
52 Mongolia 49 26 52 137
Ranking by policy: latest 2006-Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, bottom 20 all, equal weights07, bottom 20 all, equal weights
Rank Country Trade PolicyExternal Environment
Institutional Environment
Trade Facilitation
97 Cameroon 114 46 154 84
98 Cote d'I voire 80 68 155 102
98 Guyana 110 49 104 142
100 Gabon 119 12 144 135
101 Madagascar 101 48 149 121
102 Niger 99 9 169 144
103 Mozambique 68 114 134 110
104 Uganda 115 114 118 83
105 Cambodia 90 120 145 81
106 Benin 98 122 151 89
107 Eritrea 63 104 171 125
107 Tanzania 88 107 130 138
109 Malawi 125 124 127 91
110 Senegal 94 111 162 101
111 Nepal 120 123 111 131
112 Togo 95 118 156 120
113 Mali 102 121 158 109
114 Burundi 104 102 174 113
115 Burkina Faso 100 125 161 122
116 Rwanda 121 119 150 149
Tariffs have been falling, but remain high in low-income countries and SAS, MNA, and SSA. Singapore has close to zero tariffs.
MFN tariff, import weightedMFN tariff, import weighted
0
5
10
15
20
25
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
MF
N T
rad
e W
eig
hte
d T
arif
f (%
)
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest
In agriculture most countries are more In agriculture most countries are more protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among lowest. lowest.
MFN tariff, import weighted, agricultureMFN tariff, import weighted, agriculture
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
MF
N T
rad
e W
eig
hte
d A
vera
ge
- A
gri
cult
ure
(%
)
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest
Some countries increased their tariffs Some countries increased their tariffs in recent yearsin recent years ((but not Madagascar)but not Madagascar)
Country
1995-99 (%)
2000–04 (%)
2007 (%)
Absolute increase
between 2007 and 2000-04
Percent increase
between 2007 and 2000-04 (%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina .. 6 7 1 16.7 Russian Federation 11.8 9.8 11.1 1.3 13.3 Sri Lanka 20.9 9.9 11.4 1.6 15.2 Lithuania 3.5 3.5 5.3 1.7 51.4 Latvia 4.3 3.5 5.3 1.8 51.4 Iceland 3.7 5.3 7.6 2.3 43.4 Bhutan 15.3 19.4 21.9 2.5 12.9 Zimbabwe 27.9 17.4 20.1 2.7 15.5 Vanuatu .. 13.8 16.6 2.8 20.3 Estonia 0.1 1.6 5.3 3.7 231.3 Uganda .. 8.7 12.6 3.9 44.8 Uzbekistan .. 11 15.6 4.6 41.8 Kazakhstan 9.5 2.8 7.8 5 178.6 Madagascar 6.9 4.6 12.4 7.8 169.6
Services trade commitments vary Services trade commitments vary among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.
SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among lowestlowest
ROW applied tariff, export weightedROW applied tariff, export weighted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
Res
t o
f th
e W
orl
d A
pp
lied
Tra
de
Wei
gh
ted
Ave
rag
e T
arif
f (%
)
2000-2004 2005-2006 2006-07 latest
A high share of exports is MFN duty A high share of exports is MFN duty free, especially for Singaporefree, especially for Singapore
Trade agreements are important for Trade agreements are important for many countries, esp. Singapore, but many countries, esp. Singapore, but less so for low-income countriesless so for low-income countries
Share of Exports to preferential partners, %Share of Exports to preferential partners, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
Sh
are
of
Tra
de
wit
h F
TA
/CU
Par
tner
s -
Exp
ort
s (%
)
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005 2006
Value of EU and US preferences vary Value of EU and US preferences vary from almost nil (as for Singapore) to from almost nil (as for Singapore) to modest, even for most LDCsmodest, even for most LDCs as a % of bilateral exportsas a % of bilateral exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
Pre
fere
nce
s (E
U+U
S)
Act
ual
Val
ue
(%)
2005 2006
Most country groups had substantial Most country groups had substantial real trade growth, but low-income real trade growth, but low-income countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down in 2007in 2007
Real growth of trade (g+s, %)Real growth of trade (g+s, %)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
EAP ECA HI OECD HI non-OECD LAC MNA SAS Singapore SSA
Rea
l Gro
wth
in T
ota
l Tra
de
(%)
1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2006 2007
Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with lower tariffs have countries with lower tariffs have higher merchandise trade integrationhigher merchandise trade integration
AFG
ALB
DZA
AGO
ATG
ARG
ARM
AUS
AUT
AZE
BHS
BHR
BGD
BRB
BLR
BEL
BLZ
BEN
BMU
BTN
BOL
BIH BWA
BRA
BRN
BGR
BFA BDI
KHM
CMR
CAN
CPV
CAF
TCDCHL
CHN
COL
ZAR
COG
CRI
CIVHRV
CYP
CZE
DNK
DJI
DMADOM
ECU
EGY
SLV
GNQ
EST
ETH
FIN
FRA
GAB
GEO
DEU
GHA
GRC
GRD
GTM
GNB
GUY
HTI
HND
HUN
ISL
IND
IDN
IRN
IRL
ISR
ITA
JAM
JPN
JOR
KAZ
KEN
KOR
KWTKGZ
LAO
LVA
LBN
LSO
LBY
LTU
LUX
MAC
MKD
MDG
MWI
MYS
MDV
MLI
MLT
MRT
MUS
MEX
MDA
MNG
MNE
MARMOZ
NAM
NPL
NLD
NZL
NIC
NER
NGA
NOR
OMN
PAKPAN
PNG
PRY
PER
PHL
POLPRT
QAT
ROM
RUS
RWA
SAU
SEN
SRB
SYC
SVK
SVN
SLB
ZAFESP
LKAKNALCA
VCT
SDN
SUR
SWZ
SWE CHE
SYR
TWN
TJK
TZA
THA
TGO
TTO
TUN
TUR
TKM
UGA
UKR
ARE
GBR
USA
URY
UZBVUT
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZMB
ZWE
18.4
180.
7
Merchandise Trade Integration, 1995-2006
0 10 20 30
Applied Simple Average Tariff, 1995-2006
Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate countries with better business climate are more integratedare more integrated
0100
200
300
Tra
de inte
gra
tion
0 50 100 150 200Doing Business
Trade integration Vs. Doing business rank, 2005-06
Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate countries with better business climate have higher manufacturing shareshave higher manufacturing shares
ALBATG
ARG
ARM
AUS
AUT
AZE
BLR
BEL
BLZ
BENBOL
BIHBRA
BGR
BDI
CAN
CPVCHL
CHN
COL
CRI
CIV
HRV
CZE
DNK
DMA
ECU
EGY
SLV
EST
FJI
FIN
FRA
GMB
GEO
DEU
GHAGRC
GRD
GTM
GUY
HND
HKG HUN
ISL
IND
IDN
IRL
ISR
ITA
JAM
JPN
JOR
KAZ
KOR
KGZ
LVA
LTU
LUX
MKD
MDG
MYS
MDV
MUS
MEX
MDA
MNG
MAR
MOZ
NAM
NLD
NZL
NIC
NERNOR
OMN
PAK
PAN
PRYPER
PHL
POL
PRT
ROM
RUS
SAU
SYC
SGP
SVN
ZAF
ESP
LKA
KNA
LCAVCT
SDN
SWZ
SWE
CHE
SYR
TWN
TZA
THA
TGO
TTO
TUN
TUR
UGA
UKR
GBR
USA
URY
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZMB
020
4060
80
Manufacture share in export, 2005-06
0 50 100 150 200
Doing Business Rank, 2005-06
Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with better regulatory countries with better regulatory quality have stronger export quality have stronger export diversificationdiversification
ALB
DZA
ADO
AGO
ATG
ARG
ARM
ABW
AUS
AUT
AZE
BHS
BHR
BGD
BRB
BLR
BEL
BLZ
BEN BMU
BTNBOL
BIH
BWA
BRA
BRN
BGR
BFABDI
KHM
CMR
CAN
CPVCAF
CHL
CHN
COL
COM
ZAR
COG
CRI
CIV
HRV
CUB
CYP
CZEDNK
DJI
DMA
DOM
ECU
EGY
SLV
GNQ
ERI
EST
ETH
FJI
FIN
FRA
GAB
GMB
GEO
DEU
GHA
GRC
GRD
GTM
GIN
GNB
GUY
HTI
HND
HKGHUN
ISL
INDIDN
IRN
IRQ
IRL
ISR
ITA
JAM
JPNJOR
KAZ
KEN
KIR
PRK
KOR
KWT
KGZLAO
LVALBN
LSO
LBY
LTU
LUX
MAC
MKDMDG
MWI
MYS
MDV
MLI
MLT
MRT
MUS
MEX
FSM
MDA
MNG
MAR
MOZ
MMR
NAM
NPL
NLD
NCL
NZL
NIC
NER
NGA
NOR
OMN
PAK
PANPNGPRY
PER
PHL
POL PRT
QAT
ROM
RUS
RWA
WSM
STP
SAU
SEN
SRB
SYCSLE
SGP
SVKSVN
SLB
ZAF
ESP
LKA
KNA
LCAVCT
SDN
SUR
SWZ
SWECHE
SYR
TWN
TJK
TZA
THA
TMPTGO
TON TTO
TUN
TUR
TKM
UGA
UKR
ARE
GBR
USA
URY
UZB
VUT
VEN
VNM
YEM
ZMB
ZWE
020
4060
8010
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
WGI-Regulatory Quality, 2005-06
Exp
ort
C
on
cen
tra
tion
In
de
x,
20
05
-06
Searching for global patterns: Searching for global patterns: countries with more diversified exports countries with more diversified exports have lower export growth volatility (00-have lower export growth volatility (00-06)06)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
Export concentration index
Exp
ort g
row
th v
olat
ility
Trade Policy: Trade Policy: MFN TTRI 2006MFN TTRI 2006Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 125 of 125
BRIICS
United States
Sw itzerland
Singapore
Hong Kong, China
High income OECDs Average
High income non-OECDs Average
EU24
East Asia- Pacif ic Average
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
TTRI (MFN applied, %), 2006-07 latest
External Environment: External Environment: MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006Singapore’s rank is 43Singapore’s rank is 43rdrd of 125 of 125
BRIICS
United States
Sw itzerland
Singapore
Hong Kong, China
High income OECDs Average
High income non-OECDs Average
EU24
East Asia- Pacif ic Average
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
MA-TTRI (%), 2006-07 latest
Institutional Environment: Institutional Environment: Ease of Doing Business, 2007Ease of Doing Business, 2007Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 178 of 178
BRIICS
United States
Sw itzerland
Singapore
Hong Kong, China
High income OECDs Average
High income non-OECDs Average
EU24
East Asia- Pacif ic Average
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Ease of Doing Business Rank (out of 178, worst), 2006-07 latest
BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics Performance Index 2006Performance Index 2006Singapore’s rank is 1Singapore’s rank is 1stst of 151 of 151
BRIICS
United States
Sw itzerland
Singapore
Hong Kong, China
High income OECDs Average
High income non-OECDs Average
EU24
East Asia- Pacif ic Average
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Logistics Performance Index (out of 5, best), 2006-07 latest
BRIICS’ Trade Outcome:BRIICS’ Trade Outcome:Real Trade Growth, 2007Real Trade Growth, 2007Singapore’s rank is 80Singapore’s rank is 80thth of 160 of 160
United States
Sw itzerland
Singapore
Hong Kong, China
High income OECDs Average
High income non-OECDs Average
EU24
East Asia- Pacif ic Average
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1
Real Growth in Total Trade (g+s, %), 2006-07 latest
Global patterns and trends: Global patterns and trends: summary findingssummary findings
Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of preferences, has fallen in all regions and income preferences, has fallen in all regions and income groups from the mid-1990s to 2007groups from the mid-1990s to 2007
In low income countries, it fell by over 45%.In low income countries, it fell by over 45%. High income countries still have lowest averages, but High income countries still have lowest averages, but
they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are especially high in areas of export interest to developing especially high in areas of export interest to developing countries, esp. agric & garments.countries, esp. agric & garments.
Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in low-income but also in middle income countries.low-income but also in middle income countries.
Global patterns and trends: Global patterns and trends: summary findings (cont.)summary findings (cont.) There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation
between high-income and developing countries, but between high-income and developing countries, but South Africa is 24South Africa is 24thth and China 30 and China 30th th of 150.of 150.
Countries whose institutional environments are better Countries whose institutional environments are better tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend to be more integrated in the world economy.to be more integrated in the world economy.
Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and export performance export performance
Singapore’s TAAG: Singapore’s TAAG: summary findingssummary findings
Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually duty free tariff schedule, but…duty free tariff schedule, but… substantial tariffs on some agricultural importssubstantial tariffs on some agricultural imports high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001)high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001) weak services trade liberalization commitmentsweak services trade liberalization commitments
High openness of foreign marketsHigh openness of foreign markets Best business environment and trade facilitationBest business environment and trade facilitation Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but… Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but…
little change in merch/services export structurelittle change in merch/services export structure some increase in export product concentrationsome increase in export product concentration halving of growth in 2007halving of growth in 2007
Next StepsNext Steps
Improve website functionalitiesImprove website functionalities Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and
TAAGs by December 2008TAAGs by December 2008 Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool, Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool,
TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by September 2009September 2009
http://www.worldbank.org/wti orhttp://www.worldbank.org/wti or http://www.worldbank.org/tradehttp://www.worldbank.org/trade or or http://http://worldbank.org/wbiworldbank.org/wbi