World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

Role of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services in Disaster Risk Management

And Progress with WMO DRR Programme

By

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Division

www.wmo.int

WMO

Wind Storm 42.2%

Earthquake 21.5%

Extreme Temperature

2.1%

Tsunami0.6%

Slides 0.4%

Wild Fires 2.4%

Flood 25.5%

Drought 5.0%

Drought 30%

Flood 10.4%

Wild Fires 0.1%

Slides 1.1%

Tsunami12.2%

Volcano 1% Extreme

Temperature 5.4%

Epidemic 9.6%

Earthquake 15.8%

Wind Storm 14.6%

Wind Storm 27.2%

Drought 4.8%

Flood 33.1%

Wild Fires 3.4%

Insect Infestation

0.9%

Slides 4.8%

Tsunami0.4%

Volcano 1.6%

Extreme Temperature

3.8%

Epidemic 12.0%

Earthquake 8.1%

Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by

Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

90 % of events 70 % of casualties 78 % of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

Loss of life

Number ofevents

Earthquake 6%

Wind Storm 11%

Epidemic 2%

Flood 3%

Tsunami 75%

Slides 2%

Earthquake 10%

Epidemic 7%

Extreme Temperature

1%

Volcano 6%

Tsunami1%

Slides 8%

Wild Fires 4%

Flood 27%

Drought 3%

Wind Storm 33%

RA V Distribution of Disasters Caused by

Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

83% of events 18 % of casualties 79% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Economic losses

Loss of life

Number ofevents Wind Storm

23%

Earthquake 11%

Volcano 1%

Tsunami 9%

Wild Fires 19%

Flood 14%

Drought 23%

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural

hazards (1980-2007)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses

Emerging Opportunities for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

….• Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused

on post disaster response in most countries!

• New paradigm in disaster risk management - Investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer ….

– Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005-2015 by 168 countries (Kobe, Japan)

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate

information and services!

Shift From Post Disaster Response to Ex Ante Investments in Disaster Prevention and Preparedness

(Development Issue)

Risk TransferRisk Assessment

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

National to Local LevelsAlignment of Multi-sectoral coordination, planning, legislation,

resources

2

1

4

3

Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise !

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Need forMulti-sectoral risk

management

Drought

TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaHazard intensity and frequency increasing linked

to climate variability and change!

Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !

Understanding the Risks is Fundamental!

Hazard Analysis and

Mapping

Exposure and

Vulnerability

Potential Loss

Estimates

Analysis and Tools for

Emergency Management and Sectoral

Planning

Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping

Impacts: population agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinesses

Number of lives at risk

$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure

Reduction in crop yields

Business interruptionNMHS provide

hazard data, statistical analysis

and forecasts

Need for Socio-economic impacts

data

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide hazard data and analysis

to support risk assessment

Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

Nu

mb

er

of

co

un

trie

s t

ha

t a

rch

ive

d

ata

fo

r th

e s

pe

cif

ied

ha

zard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Strong w

inds

Thunder

storm

or l

ight

ning

Drough

t

Heat w

ave

Flash

floo

d

River

floodin

g

Hails

torm

Dense

fog

Cold w

ave

Heavy

sno

w

Smoke

, Dust

or H

aze

Hazar

ds to

avi

atio

n

Earth

quakes

Coasta

l flo

oding

Tropic

al c

yclo

ne

Forest

or w

ildla

nd fire

Lands

lide o

r mudsl

ide

Freez

ing

rain

Storm

surg

e

Tornad

o

Wate

rborn

e haz

ards

Airborn

e su

bstanc

es

Mar

ine h

azar

ds

Sandst

orm

Avala

nche

Tsuna

mi

Volcan

ic e

vents

Deser

t locu

st s

war

m

Main Challenges:

• Modernisation of observation networks

• Data rescue

• Data management systems

• Maintaining standard hazard database and metadata

• Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling

Over 70 % of NMHS globally, are challenged in delivering these services!

Marine

Health (etc.)…

Geological

COMMUNITIES AT RISK

hazard warning

NationalGovernment

(emergency systems)

Hydrological

Meteorological

National Technical Services

disasterresponse

Many countries are still in response and relief mode!

haz

ard

war

nin

g

Local government

Disa

sterresp

on

se

hazard warning

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up…

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 11 1424

47

88

160

345

103

495

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Billions of USD per decade

decade

0.05

2.66

0.17

1.73

0.39

0.65

0.22 0.25

0.67

0.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Millions of casualties per decade

decade

While casualties related to hydro-

meteorological disasters are

decreasing

Early Warning Systems Require Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies

National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms

1 2

3 4

NationalGovernment

DRR coordination mechanisms

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health, Agricuture (etc.)

Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries

feedback

feed

bac

k

Community Preparedwar

nin

gs

warnings

feedback

2

4

3

5

54

4

5

Shift to Preparedness through Investments in all Components of Early Warning Systems !

Local Government

responsible for emergency

preparedness and response

Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination

1

warnings

Guidelines on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation in Early Warning Systems

Role of NMHS

First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO in cooperation with Members and international agencies.

Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard ApproachPlanning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles

Synthesis of Good Practices and Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services

Bangladesh Cyclone

Preparedness Programme

Cuba ropical Cyclone Early Warning

System

France “Vigilance System”

Shanghai Multi-Hazard Emergency

Preparedness Programme

Focus: Planning, legislation and Institutional partnerships and coordination at national to local levels

Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management agencies and National Metrological and Hydrological Services, Media, other relevant ministries

Training Programme:• Training on good practices and “Capacity development in Multi-

Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation”

• Interactive session to assess national capacities, gaps, priorities• Identification of opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects

Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)

Early Warning Systems need to be designed with a multi-hazard approach

Consideration for:

• Leveraging Resources and Capacities

• Cost-effectiveness

• Inter-operability

• Maintenance and sustainability

Climate information and forecasting tools provide unprecedented opportunities to support sectoral risk

assessment and management!

• Agricultural productivity and food security• Infrastructure and Urban planning• Land zoning• Tourism• Health epidemics• Water resource management

Warning systems have focused on protection of lives BUT…

Advancements in climate modelling and forecasting provide unprecedented opportunities

for Disaster Risk Management

Season to yearNext hour to

10 daysDecade

Long term climate change

Short to medium term weather

forecasts

Seasonal to inter-annual

climate forecasts

Decadal climate trend

analysis

Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness

International negotiations with national policy implications

Climate change

scenarios

Decision-making Timelines

Long-term strategic planningInfrastructures planning, retrofittingLand zoning

Medium-term operational planningRisk assessment and management

Requirements of Financial Risk Transfer Markets For Meteorological and Climate Information

What type of Financial tools?

Which Risks? Who Could Benefit?

Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and

derivatives

Regional Catastrophe

Insurance Facilities

Other emerging products

Government

Companies

Individuals

Other

Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these

markets!)

Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts

Long term trend analysis (long-term

market strategy)

Financial risks

WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)

USER Perspectives:

• Information requirements (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)

– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)

– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts

– Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy)

• Technical support and Service delivery

Meteorological Services Perspectives:

• Need for awareness raising among Met services

• Resources, ability and priorities to deliver

• “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility

Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer

Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Global Framework for Climate ServicesUser interface in Disaster Risk Management

Example of Climate Information users in DRM

Their needs and requirements

Inte

rnat

ion

al

Re

gio

nal

Na

tion

al

•Development Banks & Agencies

•Humanitarian Agencies

•Multinational Companies (Agriculture, energy, transport, reinsurance/finance, etc)

•Regional Development Banks

•Regional Economic groupings

•Regional DRM Agencies

•River basin organisations

•DRM Agencies

•Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Environment, Tourism, Water,etc

•Cities & Local Governments

•Private sector

•Public

Mechanism for coordination and

user interface

•ISDR

•UNDG

•IASC

•UNGPDRR

•Global Reports (GAR, HDR, etc)

•Regional DRR Platform•Regional Cooperation Projects

•National DRM coordination mechanisms / Platforms (Multi-Sectoral)•Sectors and national projects

•Global risk assessment•Global climate data and analysis•Climate outlooks•Forecast information

•Regional risk analysis

•Regional outlooks and forecasts

•Regional data

•Risk assessments •national•local•sectoral

•Early warnings

•Outlooks

•Data

Climate

Services

Information

System

Observations & Monitoring

Research, Modeling & Prédiction

1. Disaster Risk Management is a development issue

2. Capacity development of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming

Key Messages:

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in

2003 to …

DRR Programme’s Strategic Foundation

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2015(Top Level Objectives and

Five Strategic Thrusts)

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)

WMO strategic priorities

in Disaster Risk Reduction

Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National

network and partners

WMO Strategic priorities and Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction

Approved by WMO Congress - XV

To implement DRR priorities through regional and national projects, with following end results:

1. Modernized NMHSs and observing networks.

2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.

3. Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities.

4. Strengthened NMHSs cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.

5. Trained management and staff of NMHS

6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness

WMO DRR Strategy

Key Questions:

• Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands?

• How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda?

WMO Country-level DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

139 countries participated

1. National policies and legislation2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in

monitoring, forecasting, communications3. Hazard databases4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities5. Human resources (technical, managerial)6. Operational partnerships with disaster

risk management stakeholders

Assessed Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate

24/5254 %

25/3474 %

10/1283 %

18/2282 %

14/1974 %

44/4892 %

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

ScopeNumber of surveys

receivedTotal number of

countries% Response

Global (WMO Members) 139 187 74%

Developing countries 85 137 62%

Least Developed countries 25 50 50%

Africa (RA I) 28 52 54%

Asia (RA II) 25 34 74%

South America (RA III) 10 12 83%

Central and North America (RA IV) 18 22 82%

South-West Pacific (RA V)

14 19 74%

Europe (RA VI) 44 48 92%

Country-Level Capacity Assessment (2006)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

Category

Planning &

Legislation

Infrastructure:

Observation

Forecasting

Telecom.

Data, Analysis

and Technical

Capacities

Partnerships

&

Concept of Operations

% countries

1 Need for development in all areas 12

2 Need for improvements in all areas 42

3 Self sufficientNeed for improvements

in these areas 26

4Self sufficient

Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines

20

Under estimated

Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

WMO DRR Strategy

Key Questions:• Can National Meteorological and Hydrological

Services meet these demands?

• How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the National DRR/Development Agenda and systematicall and sustainably develop their capacities?

WMO DRR Strategy: Engaging in National and Regional Development Projects with partners that

influence National Programmes and Funding

PartnersAgency Type

Coordination

National DRR Implementatio

nFunding

World Bank

(GFDRR)Development X X

ISDRCoordination X X

UNDPDevelopment

XX X

WFP, FAO Agriculture X X X

UN- OCHA, IFRC Humanitarian X X

Donors (EC, etc)Donor

X

Regional Centers and agencies X

XX

Criteria for DRR Project Development

(1) Alignment with WMO Strategic priorities in DRR

(2) Built on priorities, and needs of regions and countries

(3) Built on partnerships and integrated planning, budgeting, implementation (leveraging WMO and partners’ expertise and resources)

(4) Result-based approach (Deliverables, timelines, evaluation)

(5) Must be scalable

(6) Plans for sustainability of capacities overtime

(6) Ensure end-to-end solutions leading to better decision-making

(7) Extra-Budgetary resource mobilization strategy for implementation (if needed)

1) Develop training materials 2) Link training workshops to regional

and national development projects

Two Tier approach to training and capacity development

Monitoring and Evaluation of

national practices

Identification and Documentation of latest technologies, Good Practices and

learning Lessons

Development of Guidelines and

standards

National and Regional

training and development

Projects

Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects

Linking Training systematically with

Institutional Capacities development projects

WMO Guidelines and training in DRR Available for

• Early Warning Systems - – First training materials on institutional aspects will be published in

2009(with Springer Verlag)- Joint training between NMHS and DRM– Various technical training available through WMO Programmes and

Commissions

• Standardization of Hazard data, metadata and analysis tools (Technical Commissions)– Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and

other meteorological hazards underway through Technical Commissions

• Training materials for NMHS in support of financial risk transfer markets– Experiences of several National Meteorological Services will be

documented in 2010 in light of several pilots facilitated through World Bank, WFP and other.

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO

South East Europe

Central Asia and Caucasus

South East Asia

IGAD

SADC

Central America and Caribbean

Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects

2007 20092008 2010 2011

(Africa)

(Asia)

(South America)

(North America & Carribeans)

(Asia-Pacific)

(Europe)

Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS

Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo

DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO,

NOAA, IFRC)

Sample Projects

South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme

World Bank / ISDR / WMO / UNDP Programme – initiated in 2007

• Three Components:– Risk Management Capacities

– Hydro meteorological services

– Catastrophe Insurance facility and financial risk transfer

Phase I: Assessments • Detailed national assessment• Funded by GFDRR

• 11 countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Slovenia, Turkey

SEEDRMAP Phase IIEC Enlargement Project

• Regional Programme on Disaster Risk Reduction in SEE (EC DG Enlargement 2 M € funding)

8 Countries

Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo (as defined by UNSCR 1244/99), Turkey

– UNDP Component 1: Building Capacity in Disaster Risk Reduction through Regional Cooperation and Collaboration in South East Europe

– WMO Component 2: Regional Cooperation in South East Europe for meteorological, hydrological and climate data management and exchange to support Disaster Risk Reduction

• World Bank National DRR Projects– Albania, Croatia, Moldova

SEEDRMAP Phase IIEC Enlargement Project

• To facilitate the establishment of a Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Western Balkans and Turkey.

• To support development of national platforms

• To increase the availability of reliable regional level data that is crucial for Vulnerability Assessment, Disaster Planning and Early Warning.

• To enhance contribution of NMHS to DRR at national and regional levels.

Expected Outcomes of the SEE Project

• National experts are trained in:– Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems– Flood hazard data, metadata and mapping tools– Drought hazard data, metadata and mapping tools

• National proposals prepared for:– development of Early Warning Systems– development of risk assessment capacities

• Proposal for concrete initiatives for regional cooperation in SEE region

WITHUND

P

Costa Rica

Nicaragua

El Salvador

Pilot Project on End-to-End Early Warning Systems

for Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: Central America

Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua• Objectives: Development on end-to-end EWS

– Operationally linking NMHS capacities to support community emergency preparedness and action

– Development and demonstration of inter-agency Concept of Operations among national to local partners

• Hazards: Tropical Cyclones and Flash Floods• Partners:

– National: NMHS, Disaster Risk Managment Agencies, Red cross

– International/Regional: World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, OCHA, WFP, ISDR

– Technical: NOAA, NASA Servir (TBC)• Status: Assessments completed and Detailed

proposal developed with partners and submitted for funding to GFDRR

Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in Africa

Funded by GFDRR

Burundi

Rwanda

Sudan

Eritria

Ethiopia

Djibouti

Somalia

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

• Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda

• Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies

• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management

• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:

• Partners– National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,

ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)

• Status: Project was launch on June 2009

Good Practices in EWSShanghai Multi-Hazard

Early Warning System (Mega City)•Governance : (mega) city-level.

•Organisational: Top-down (monitoring, forecasting, warning) and bottom-up

•Operational: Community-based + high tech monitoring and alerting tools

Multi-Hazard Approach: Services are specialized but shared for alert dissemination and response mechanisms.

For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction DivisionTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You