world meteorological organization working together in weather, climate and water climate- services...
TRANSCRIPT
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
Climate- Services for Disaster Risk Management
By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, WMO
Geoffrey Love, Ph.D.Director of Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Departments
CCL Technical Conference16-18 February, 2010
Antalya, Turkey
www.wmo.int
WMO
Paradigm shift from post disaster response to Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
• In most countries disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response (humanitarian issue!)
• In 2005 168 countries adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (Kobe, Japan)
– New paradigm in disaster risk management focused on reducing risks through prevention and mitigation (Development issues)
– International community is working to assist countries in implementing the HFA
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM provides a wide range of opportunities for meteorological,
hydrological and climate services!
Tsunami1%
Wild Fires 2%
Windstorm 43%
Earthquake22%
Drought5%
Extreme Temp.
2%Flood 25%
Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by
Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
90% of events 70% of casualties 75% of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.
Economic losses
Loss of lifeNumber ofevents
Volcano1,6%
Tsunami0,4%
Epidemic, insects13%
Wild Fires 3%
Windstorm 27%
Earthquake8%
Drought5%
Extreme Temp.
4%
Flood 33%
Slides 5%
Volcano1%Tsunami
12%Epidemic,
insects10%
Windstorm 15%
Earthquake16%
Drought30%
Extreme Temp.
5% Flood 10%
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural
hazards (1980-2007)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses
Socio-economic Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes are on the Rise !
Intensity
Frequency
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Strong Wind
Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement
PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture
EnergyEnergy
Urban areasUrban areas
Need forMulti-sectoral risk
management
Drought
TransportationTransportationAral SeaAral SeaDisasters impacts
many sectors!
Hazard, vulnerability and exposure on the rise !
Six Components of An Effective National Disaster Risk Management Framework
Risk TransferRisk Assessment
Historical Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting and forward looking hazard trend analysis
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
Preparedness (saving lives): early warning systems emergency planning and response
Prevention (Reduce economic losses): Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)
CATastrophe insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives
Risk Reduction
Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training across agencies
Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)
3
2
5
4
1
6
Understanding the Risks Provides Evidence for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure and
Vulnerability
Potential Loss
Estimates
This information is
critical for decision-making
and development of
strategies to reduce the risks
Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping
Impacts: population density agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinesses
Number of lives at risk
$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure
Reduction in crop yields
Business interruptionNeed for historical and
real time data Statistical analysis tools
climate forecasts and trend analysis
Need for Socio-economic impacts data and analysis
tools
Need for risk assessment tools combining hazard, asset
and exposure information
4: Risk Atlas and Risk Management tools
Hazard Model
Vulnerability /Damage Model
Probable Loss estimate
Exposures
Historical Statisitical
hazard analysis events
Land coverand elevation
Hazardestimate
Input database
Model
Product
Key
Cost Benefit
Scenario Events
Portfoliolosses /
mitigation options
Local data
Populationdistribution
Possible Inputs
Economic data
1: Hazard Assessment
Hazardmaps
1: Hazard Mapping
3: Risk Mapping& Loss Estimation
2: Damage Functions
2: Asset Inventory and Valuation
Risk maps
Estimating the Risk with Consideration for Climate Variability and Changes!
Future climate hazard trends
(seasonal, inter annual, decadal)
+,
Risk Assessment Requires a Variety of Climate Services….
• Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata
• Statistical hazard analysis and mapping tools
• Forward looking hazard trend analysis- Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
- Probabilitic climate forecasts and long-term hazard trend analysis (seasonal to interannual, decadal)
WMO 2006 Country-level DRR Survey Indicates that ….
Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)
Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s t
ha
t a
rch
ive
d
ata
fo
r th
e s
pe
cif
ied
ha
zard
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Strong w
inds
Thunder
storm
or l
ight
ning
Drough
t
Heat w
ave
Flash
floo
d
River
floodin
g
Hails
torm
Dense
fog
Cold w
ave
Heavy
sno
w
Smoke
, Dust
or H
aze
Hazar
ds to
avi
atio
n
Earth
quakes
Coasta
l flo
oding
Tropic
al c
yclo
ne
Forest
or w
ildla
nd fire
Lands
lide o
r mudsl
ide
Freez
ing
rain
Storm
surg
e
Tornad
o
Wate
rborn
e haz
ards
Airborn
e su
bstanc
es
Mar
ine h
azar
ds
Sandst
orm
Avala
nche
Tsuna
mi
Volcan
ic e
vents
Deser
t locu
st s
war
m
Main needs are:
• Modernisation of observation networks
• Data rescue
• Data management systems
• Maintaining standard historical hazard database and metadata
• Hazard analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling
Over 70 % of NMHS are challenged in supporting risk
assessment!!!
NationalGovernment
DRR coordination mechanisms
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health, Agricuture (etc.)
Coordinated National Technical Agencies and Ministries
feedback
feed
bac
k
War
nin
g D
isse
min
atio
n
feedback
24
3
5
54
4
5
Increasingly more countries are developping Early Warning Systems for fast on-set events….
Local Government
responsible for emergency
preparedness and response
Aligned policies, plans, resources, coordination
1
Warning dissemination
Community Emergency Plans and Prepared
Warning dissemination
WMO has partnered up with other agencies to Document Good Practices and develop Guidelines
for Early Warning Systems
First EWS Publication of a series being published by WMO and Springer Verlag in 2010
Guidelines on Institutional Aspects EWS with Multi-Hazard ApproachPlanning, legislative, financing, Institutional Coordination and Roles
Synthesis of First set of Good Practices (5 more good practices on the way)
Role of National Metrological and Hydrological Services
Bangladesh Cyclone
Preparedness Programme
Cuba Tropical
Cyclone Early Warning System
France “Vigilance System”
Shanghai Multi-Hazard
Emergency Preparedness Programme
USA Multi-Hazard Early Warning
System
Germany The Warning
Management of the Deutscher Wetterdienst
BUT economic
losses are on the way up!
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
0.05
2.66
0.17
1.73
0.39
0.65
0.22 0.25
0.67
0.22
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
decade
Loss of life from hydro-
meteorological disasters are decreasing…
4 11 1424
47
88
160
345
103
495
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
decade
…. to support sectoral risk assessment and management!
• Infrastructure and Urban planning• Land zoning• Insurance / Finance • Agricultural productivity and food security • Tourism• Health epidemics• Water resource management
Climate forecasting and trend analysis tools provide unprecedented opportunities
Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms
What type of Financial tools?
Which Risks? Who Could Benefit?
Requirements for Hydro-Met Services?
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed insurance and
derivatives
Regional Catastrophe
Insurance Facilities
Other emerging products
Government
Companies
Individuals
Other
Historical and real-time data (Fundamental for development of these
markets!)Seasonal to inter-annual
climate forecasts
Decadal climate trend analysis
Long term trend analysis (long-term
market strategy)
Financial risks
WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Meteorological Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)
USER Perspectives were discussed:
• Information requirements (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)
– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)
– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts
– Climate Forecasting and Long term trend analysis (reporting on climate risk, solvency analysis and long-term strategy)
• Technical support and Service delivery needs
WMO Workshop on Catastrophe and Weather-Indexed Insurance
December 2007, WMO HQ
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html
Major Initiatives Underway for Development of Climate Services for (Re)Insurance
• Drivers are – Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU) for the
companies to report of their climate risk– Industry: Funding research and partnering with climate
research community to develop relevant climate services – Climate Community and Met services: Vary receptive and have
initiated various projects and activities (UK Met Office, NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, U of Reading, U of Exeter, Princeton Univ, and many more)
• WMO is engaging to facilitate more extended collaboration and support the scaling up these initiatives for benefit of more countries around the world
Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist)
Season to yearNext hour to
10 daysDecade Long term
Scenarios
Short to medterm weather forecasts:
Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings
Probabilistic seasonal forecasts: Probabilities of
severity and intensity of tropical cyclones
Future Decadal trend analysis: of
severity and intensity of tropical
cyclones
Climate Change
scenarios – IPCC Process
Emergency planning activation and responseEvacuations, inventory, preparing houses
Strategic PlanningBuilding codesInfrastructure & Urban Development and RetrofittingLand Zoning and Planning
Urban & coastal Emergency PreparednessInventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds
Emergency ServicesGovernment Authorities Insurance Public, Media
Urban plannersLocal to national GovernmentsBanksInsurance
DE
CIS
ION
M
AK
ER
SD
EC
ISIO
NS
SE
RV
ICE
S
Local – National GovernmentInsuranceSuppliersPublic, Media
NegotiatorsParlimentarianLocal/nationalgovernmentsPrivate sectorInternational negotiations and agreementsNational policies and legilation
1. Identification of various user-communities and their requirements
– (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)
2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards
3. Climate forecasting technologies (seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunity for improved sectoral planning for DRR
– Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM– Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools
4. Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR
WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP and WMO
South East Europe
Central Asia and Caucasus
South East Asia
SADC
Central America and Caribbean
WMO Shanghai MH-
EWS Demo
Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects in Multi-Hazard EWS
Managing Disaster and related Climate Risks DRR National/Regional Projects (2007 – Present)
1. Disaster and Climate Risk Management are interlinked development issues
2. Development of Climate Services should be part of the national development agenda and programming
3. There is need for:a. Historical and real-time hazard databases and statistical hazard analysis
toolsb. Climate Research and Modeling targeting DRR applicationsc. Identification, segmentation of users and understanding of their needs
and requirements (public and private sectors)d. Decision tools based on climate/disaster risk assessment for various
sectors
Key Messages:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
For more information please contact
Thank youThank youMerciMerci
СпасибоСпасибоGraciasGraciasشكراشكرا
谢 谢 谢 谢
Thank youThank youMerciMerci
СпасибоСпасибоGraciasGraciasشكراشكرا
谢 谢 谢 谢
Leslie MaloneScientific OfficerClimate Prediction & Adaptation BranchClimate & Water DepartmentWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel: 41.22.730.8220Fax: 41.22.730.8042Email: [email protected]