world economic overview
DESCRIPTION
World Economic Overview. Contents. Presentation Part one : Countries weight Part two : International Trade Trade in goods and services Trade in goods Trade in services Part three : Specialization Appendix Appendix 1 : Geographical classification - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201122
Contents
P
Presentation
Part one : Countries weight
Part two : International Trade Trade in goods and services Trade in goods Trade in services
Part three : Specialization
Appendix
Appendix 1 : Geographical classificationAppendix 2 : Sectoral classificationAppendix 3 : References
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20113
Presentation
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201144
This World Economic Overview highlights the main changes in the world economy in the long run and how nations took part in it.
Trends over some forty years are featured in the overview : from 1960 to 2012 for GDP, and from 1967 to 2009 for international trade in goods and services.
The first part of the overview is dedicated to changes in the world ranking of economic and population weights as well as in the one of nations development levels.
The second part describes trade flows. It sets out the growing share of trade in goods and services in the world production along with trade balances and imbalances across nations. Trade in goods and services, reflecting and explaining global and national transformations, is observed in detail. On one side through the product structure evolution, on the other side through the changes in geographical breakdowns.
In the third part, specialization indicators – in terms of comparative advantages – are presented for about twenty major countries.
This overview has been carried out from hte CHELEM database (Harmonized Accounts on the World Economy)..
http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/bdd/chelem.htm
https://chelem.bvdep.com
CHELEM-Banque de données du CEPII, document de travail n° 88-14, Décembre 1988.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20115
Part one : Countries Weight
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Total population
6
millions World = 100 Variationof inhabitants
2012 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2012-1960
North America 466 7,8 7,6 7,3 6,9 6,8 6,6 -1,2 United States 320 6,0 5,6 5,2 4,8 4,7 4,6 -1,5 Canada 35 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 -0,1 Mexico 111 1,2 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,6 1,6 0,4South America * 484 5,9 6,3 6,5 6,7 6,8 6,9 1,0 Brazil 199 2,4 2,6 2,7 2,8 2,9 2,8 0,4European Union (27) 507 13,4 11,9 10,3 9,0 8,0 7,2 -6,1 European Union (15)** 399 9,9 8,8 7,6 6,6 6,2 5,7 -4,2 Euro Area** 334 8,0 7,1 6,3 5,4 5,2 4,8 -3,2 Germany** 81 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,4 1,2 -0,7 France 64 1,5 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 -0,6 Italy 61 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,9 -0,8 United Kingdom 63 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 1,0 0,9 -0,8Other Europe 122 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7 -0,2 Turkey 77 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,1 0,2CIS 277 6,9 6,4 5,8 5,3 4,6 4,0 -2,9 Russian Federation 139 4,0 3,5 3,1 2,8 2,4 2,0 -2,0 Ukraine 45 1,4 1,3 1,1 1,0 0,8 0,6 -0,8Middle East 386 3,4 3,7 4,1 4,7 5,0 5,5 2,1 Saudi Arabia 27 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,3 Egypt 88 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 0,3Sub-Saharan Africa 907 7,5 8,0 8,7 9,8 11,1 12,9 5,4 South Africa 59 0,7 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,2 Nigeria 168 1,5 1,5 1,7 1,8 2,1 2,4 0,9Japan 127 3,1 2,8 2,6 2,3 2,1 1,8 -1,3East and South-East Asia 1 984 29,9 30,5 30,7 30,3 29,7 28,3 -1,6 ASEAN 10 552 6,6 6,9 7,2 7,5 7,7 7,9 1,3 China 1 352 22,0 22,2 22,1 21,5 20,7 19,3 -2,7 South Korea 49 0,8 0,9 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,7 -0,1 Taiwan 24 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,0Oceania and other Asia 1 756 20,2 21,0 22,1 23,1 24,1 25,0 4,8 Australia/New Zealand 27 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,0 India 1 204 14,3 14,8 15,5 16,1 16,7 17,2 2,8 Asia and Oceania n.e.s. 525 5,5 5,8 6,2 6,6 7,0 7,5 2,0World 7 014 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 0,0
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database* South and Central America and the Caribbean is referred to as South America* * Former East Germany included since 1991
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Regional shares of world income
7
Structure % of world Variation
2012 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2012-1960
North America 18 945 42,1 38,6 29,0 30,4 35,1 26,0 -16,1 United States 15 908 37,9 34,3 24,6 26,4 30,9 21,8 -16,1 Canada 1 809 3,0 2,9 2,4 2,7 2,2 2,5 -0,5 Mexico 1 228 1,2 1,4 2,0 1,3 2,0 1,7 0,5South America * 4 716 4,8 4,5 5,0 4,0 4,6 6,5 1,7 Brazil 2 566 1,1 1,4 2,1 2,1 2,0 3,5 2,4European Union (27) 18 072 26,1 28,6 33,5 33,3 26,3 24,8 -1,3 European Union (15)** 16 617 22,8 25,7 31,0 31,4 25,1 22,8 0,0 Euro Area** 13 272 16,0 19,8 24,5 25,2 19,4 18,2 2,2 Germany** 3 593 4,4 6,1 7,3 7,1 5,9 4,9 0,5 France 2 816 4,5 4,9 6,1 5,7 4,1 3,9 -0,6 Italy 2 244 2,9 3,6 4,1 5,2 3,4 3,1 0,1 United Kingdom 2 605 5,3 4,2 4,8 4,6 4,6 3,6 -1,7Other Europe 2 413 2,9 2,7 3,1 3,1 2,7 3,3 0,4 Turkey 869 1,4 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 1,2 -0,2CIS 2 849 1,7 1,1 3,9 3,9 Russian Federation 2 220 0,9 0,8 3,0 3,0 Ukraine 166 0,4 0,1 0,2 0,2Middle East 2 875 1,6 1,7 4,7 2,5 2,4 3,9 2,3 Saudi Arabia 605 0,1 0,2 1,5 0,5 0,6 0,8 0,7 Egypt 252 0,3 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,0Sub-Saharan Africa 1 391 2,3 2,2 2,4 1,4 1,1 1,9 -0,4 South Africa 446 0,5 0,6 0,8 0,5 0,4 0,6 0,1 Nigeria 296 0,3 0,4 0,6 0,1 0,1 0,4 0,1Japan 5 963 3,2 6,9 9,5 14,0 14,5 8,2 5,0East and South-East Asia 11 431 7,1 5,6 5,8 5,7 8,7 15,7 8,5 ASEAN 10 2 198 2,2 1,9 1,9 1,6 1,8 3,0 0,8 China 7 210 4,5 3,1 2,7 1,8 3,7 9,9 5,4 South Korea 1 210 0,3 0,3 0,6 1,2 1,7 1,7 1,4 Taiwan 545 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,8 1,0 0,7 0,6Oceania and other Asia 4 289 5,7 5,0 4,2 3,9 3,5 5,9 0,2 Australia/New Zealand 1 657 1,8 1,7 1,8 1,7 1,4 2,3 0,4 India 2 018 2,7 2,0 1,6 1,4 1,4 2,8 0,1 Asia and Oceania n.e.s. 614 1,2 1,2 0,9 0,7 0,7 0,8 -0,4World 72 927 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 0,0
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database* South and Central America and the Caribbean is referred to as South America** Former East Germany included since 1991
GDP at national current prices, converted at current exchange rates
billion dollars
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Regional shares of world production***
8
Variation
2012 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 2010-1960
North America 16 835 30,5 27,7 26,2 26,6 27,9 22,8 -7,7 United States 14 028 26,6 23,5 21,5 22,2 23,4 19,0 -7,6 Canada 1 268 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1 1,7 -0,4 Mexico 1 540 1,8 2,1 2,6 2,3 2,4 2,1 0,3South America * 4 817 6,3 6,4 7,3 6,2 6,3 6,5 0,2 Brazil 2 132 2,1 2,3 3,4 3,0 2,9 2,9 0,8European Union (27) 14 370 30,8 30,2 28,1 26,8 24,9 19,4 -11,4 European Union (15)** 12 597 27,4 27,0 24,5 23,4 22,5 17,0 -10,4 Euro Area** 10 171 20,2 21,0 19,7 18,8 18,2 13,8 -6,4 Germany** 2 865 6,3 6,1 5,4 5,1 5,2 3,9 -2,4 France 1 995 4,1 4,3 4,1 3,9 3,6 2,7 -1,4 Italy 1 658 3,9 4,1 3,9 3,7 3,3 2,2 -1,6 United Kingdom 2 086 5,9 4,7 3,8 3,8 3,6 2,8 -3,1Other Europe 2 022 3,0 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,9 2,7 -0,3 Turkey 997 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,2 1,3 1,3 0,4CIS 3 133 7,3 3,5 4,2 4,2 Russian Federation 2 201 5,2 2,6 3,0 3,0 Ukraine 302 1,2 0,4 0,4 0,4Middle East 3 546 4,0 5,0 6,3 4,4 4,5 4,8 0,8 Saudi Arabia 622 0,3 0,5 1,2 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,5 Egypt 472 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,3Sub-Saharan Africa 1 896 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,2 2,6 -0,3 South Africa 561 0,9 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,8 -0,1 Nigeria 382 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,1Japan 4 076 4,8 7,4 7,6 8,9 7,5 5,5 0,7East and South-East Asia 16 544 4,1 4,2 5,5 8,7 13,7 22,4 18,3 ASEAN 10 3 033 1,7 1,8 2,2 2,8 3,4 4,1 2,4 China 10 928 1,8 1,6 1,9 3,5 7,0 14,8 13,0 South Korea 1 438 0,3 0,4 0,7 1,3 1,8 1,9 1,6 Taiwan 823 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,8 1,1 1,1 1,0Oceania and other Asia 6 693 5,6 5,3 4,9 5,8 6,7 9,1 3,5 Australia/New Zealand 1 002 1,6 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,4 -0,3 India 4 455 2,8 2,5 2,3 2,9 3,7 6,0 3,2 Asia and Oceania n.e.s. 1 237 1,1 1,1 1,2 1,5 1,4 1,7 0,6World 73 913 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 0,0
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database* South and Central America and the Caribbean is referred to as South America** Former East Germany included since 1991** PPP GDP is the GDP converted in international dollars, using PPP rates; an international dollar has the same purchasing power than the dollar in tthe United States; data are expressed in 2005 billion dollars.
billion dollars
GDP at 2005 international pricesand purchasing power parities Structure % of world total
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares in World Production*1960 – 2012
3 areas% of World PPP GDP
9
http://www.ikea.com/fr/fr/catalog/categories/departments/bedroom/10999/
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database.*See p.8
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Europe Africa Middle East
America
Asia Oceania
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares in World Production*1960 – 2012
9 main geographic regions(% of World PPP GDP)
10
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database.*See p.8
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
European Union (27)North America
East and South-East Asia
CI S and other Europe
J apan Ocania and other Asia
Middle-East,Maghreb
Sub-saharanAfrica
South America
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares in World Production*1967 – 2012
13 major countries% of World PPP GDP
11
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database*See p.8.
Etats-UnisUnited States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
China
India
Japan
Germany
Russian Federation
Brazil
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Mexico
South Korea
Canada
United States
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
GDP PPP* per head2005 international dollars
Ranking of regions in 2010
12
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database.*See p.8
2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
United States 42 393 444 421 415 463 496 435Australia/New Zeland 39 039 420 412 377 387 419 401Canada 35 656 355 362 380 397 408 366North America 34 557 388 365 360 385 406 355Germany* 32 358 355 374 392 428 388 332United Kingdom 32 130 345 317 302 346 372 330Taiwan 30 882 39 57 109 192 291 317Japan 30 610 155 279 307 382 364 314European Union (15)* 30 471 280 309 321 354 361 313France 29 889 267 309 334 358 357 307Euro Area* 29 360 255 295 314 345 350 301Italy 27 769 235 282 310 350 347 285European Union (27)* 27 168 232 256 272 299 311 279South Korea 26 686 52 67 91 168 239 274Saudi Arabia 22 040 226 322 547 286 243 226Other Europe 15 020 159 163 162 158 161 154Russian Federation 14 339 187 109 147Mexico 12 329 140 145 169 145 150 127Turkey 11 309 103 102 96 113 118 116CIS 10 209 139 76 105World AVERAGE 9 743 100 100 100 100 100 100Brazil 9 567 88 88 123 105 99 98South America 9 070 109 103 113 93 92 93Middle East 8 980 105 124 141 91 88 92South Africa 8 907 137 143 123 99 89 91East and South-East 6 978 14 14 18 29 46 72China 6 571 9 7 9 16 34 67Ukraine 6 025 119 47 62Egypt 5 580 35 35 42 49 55 57ASEAN 4 796 25 25 30 37 44 49Oceania and other Asia 3 323 27 25 22 25 28 34India 3 040 19 17 14 18 22 31Nigeria 2 176 34 29 27 21 19 22Asia and Oceania n.e.s. 2 175 19 19 20 22 20 22Sub-saharan Africa 1 979 39 34 29 23 20 20
GDP at 2005 international pricesStructure % of world averageand purchasing power parities
Dollars per head in
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
2005 PPP GDP per head*(annual average growth rate)
13
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-GDP database.*See p.8
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Saudi ArabiaMENA
Sub-saharan AfricaMexico
BrazilNigeria
GermanyItaly
FranceOther Europe
CanadaJapan
Russian federationUnited States
Australia/New ZealandOther EU15
United KingdomEast Asia nes
12 other EU27Turkey
EgyptASEAN
IndiaTaiwan
South KoreaChina
2010/1980
1980/1960
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201114
Part two
International Trade
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201115
Trade in goods and services
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares of main current account items in World GDP1967 – 2009
percent of World GDP at current prices
16
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Total Goods and Services
Industry
Primary products
Current account
Services
Current account
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Current account
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Trade and World GDP1967 - 2009
17
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
(current prices, annual average growth rate, %)
billion dollars annual average growth rate, %
2009 1967-77 1977-87 1987-97 1997-09 1967-09
World Trade 14 690 17,8 8,3 8,3 8,3 10,3Primary products 1 914 19,4 3,2 5,4 11,3 9,4Industry 8 503 17,5 9,9 9,1 7,1 10,5Services 2 926 17,8 9,4 8,2 8,9 10,7
World GDP 58 125 12,2 8,6 6,1 6,7 8,2
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Exports in Goods and Services 1967 - 2008
18
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Note: the the right axis is for EU, the left axis is for the other areas. Figures into brakets show the share in 2008. *Intra-EU trade included
(9 areas in % of world trade)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07
EU27* (39%)
North America (14%)
East & South-East Asia (21%)
Japan (5%)Africa, Middle East (5%)
Other Europe (4%)South America (4%)CIS (4%)Oceania & Other Asia (3%)
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Imports in Goods and Services 1967 - 2008
19
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database..
(9 areas in % of world trade)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07
EU27* (40%)
North America (18%)
East & South-East Asia (19%)
Japan (5%)Africa Middle East (4%)Other Europe (4%)
South America (4%)CIS (4%)
Oceania & Other Asia (3%)
Note: the the right axis is for EU, the left axis is for the other areas. Figures into brakets show the share in 2008. *Intra-EU trade included
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Trade Balances on Goods and Services1967 - 2008
20
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database
(billion current dollars)
-850
-650
-450
-250
-50
150
350
550
67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07
European Union
North America
East and South-East Asia
Japan
Africa, Middle East
Other Europe
South America
CIS
Oceania and Other Asia
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares of the 4 sectors in World Trade1967 – 2009
Percent of World Trade
21
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.
Energy
Mining
Food agriculture
Manufacturing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares of the 6 stages of Production in World Trade1967 – 2009
22
Percent of World Trade
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
Equipment goods
Primary
Consumption goods
Intermediate goods
Mixed products
Basic Manufacturing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Shares of chains in World Trade excluding Energy1967 - 2009
23
Percent of World Trade excluding Energy
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade
Chemicals
ElectronicMachinery
Food agriculture
Vehicles
TextilesElectrical
Iron & steelNon ferrous
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Wood paper
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Geographic structure of World Trade in 2009percent of World Trade (all goods)
(11 583 billion dollars at current prices in 2009**)
24
Exporting zone in rowImporting zone in column
% flows 2009 North South European Other CIS Middle-East Sub-Saharan Japan East and Oceania and World**
America America* Union (a) Europe Africa South-East Asia other Asia
North America 5,9 1,0 2,2 0,3 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,5 1,7 0,4 12,6
South America* 1,1 1,2 0,7 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,1 4,2
European Union (a) 2,9 0,6 24,9 2,5 1,1 1,6 0,6 0,5 2,1 0,8 37,7
Other Europe 0,4 0,1 2,4 0,2 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,3 0,1 4,0
CIS 0,2 0,0 1,7 0,3 0,7 0,2 0,0 0,1 0,4 0,1 3,8
Midle-East 0,5 0,3 1,2 0,1 0,0 0,3 0,2 0,8 1,6 0,7 5,6
Sub-Saharan Africa 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,4 0,2 2,1
Japan 1,0 0,2 0,7 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,1 0,0 2,6 0,2 5,0
East and South-East Asia 4,4 0,7 3,8 0,4 0,4 1,0 0,5 2,0 6,8 1,6 21,5
Oceania anf other Asia 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 0,0 0,4 0,1 0,4 1,1 0,4 3,5
World** 17,3 4,3 38,6 4,0 2,6 4,6 2,0 4,4 17,5 4,5 100,0
Source : CEPII, CHELEM International Trade
*South and Central America and the Caribbean is reffered to as South America.
**Excluding geographically unallocated flows.(a) European Union 27
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World exports in nine zones(percent of World Trade)
25
1967217 billion dollars
200811 764 billion dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.*See p.8** European Union 27
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World imports in nine zones(percent of World Trade)
26
1967217 billion dollars
200911 764 billion dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM International Trade database.*See p.8**European Union 27
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World exports in nine zonesIntra-Zone exchanges excluded
(percent of World Trade, intra-zone included)
27
1967217 billion dollars
2009 11 764 billion dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.*See p.8**European Union 27
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World imports in nine zonesIntra-zone exchanges excluded
(percent of World Trade, intra-zone included)
28
1967217 billion dollars
200911 764 billion dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Internbational Trade database.*See p.8**European Union 27
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Ten leading merchandises’ exporters1967 – 2009
(percent of world merchandise trade)
29
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
China
Germany
United States
J apan
France
Netherlands
I taly
BLEU
South Korea
United Kingdom
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
EU27 share in member countries manufacturing product imports
1967 - 2009
30
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.
12 other EU27
France9 other EU15
ItalyBenelux
Germany
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
EU27 share in member countries food agriculture product imports
1967 - 2009
31
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.
30
40
50
60
70
80
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
12 other EU27
France
Italy
Germany
9 other EU15
Benelux
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Trade balances of the 6 major countries1967 – 2009
(percent of world merchandise trade, current dollars)
32
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the energy chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in energy, current dollars)
33
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the Food Agriculture chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in Food Agriculture, current dollars)
34
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United StatesFranceGermany
United KingdomJapan
China
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the textiles chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in textiles, current dollars)
35
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
FranceGermanyUnited KingdomJapan
China
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the wood paper chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in wood paper, current dollars)
36
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the chemical chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in chemicals, current dollars)
37
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the Iron & Steel chain1967 – 2009
(net exports,, % of world trade in iron & steel, current dollars)
38
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
FranceGermany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the non ferrous chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in non ferrous, current dollars)
39Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
FranceGermanyUnited Kingdom
Japan
China-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the machinery chain1967 – 2008
(net exports, % of world trade in machinery, current dollars)
40
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the vehicles chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in vehicles, current dollars)
41
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the electrical chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in electrical equipment, current dollars)
42
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database
United States
France
Germany
United kingdom
Japan
China
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Positions of 6 major countries in the electronics chain1967 – 2009
(net exports, % of world trade in electronics products)
43
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade database.
United States
FranceGermany
United Kingdom
Japan
China
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201144
Trade in Services
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
International Trade in Services compared to Trade In Goods: relative shares, 1967-2009
45
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade and CHELEM-Balance of Payments.
(% of world trade in goods and services)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Industry(64% in 2009)
Primary products(14% in 2009)
Services(22% in 2009)
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Trade in Services 1967-2009
46
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments dataase.
(% of world trade in services)
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Other services(56 % en 2009)
Transportation(21% en 2009)
Travel(23% en 2009)
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Trade in Services, 11 sectors:relative shares in 2009 and growth1997-2009
47
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
* Billion current dollars** % of world trade in services in 2008***Annual average growth rate
*****
** Value* Share** Growth rate***2009 2009 97 - 2009
Services 3 206 100,0 7,4
Transportation 664 20,7 5,7Travel 747 23,3 5,0Other Services 1 795 56,0 9,4
of whichComputer & Information 141 4,4 19,5Finance 170 5,3 12,0Insurance 113 3,5 11,6Non either specified 131 4,1 14,2Royalties & license 185 5,8 9,7Communication 82 2,2 10,4Other Business 770 24,0 8,1Construction 80 2,5 7,6Culture 33 1,0 7,1Government 95 3,0 5,5
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Exports in Services, 9 zones (%of total exports)
19971 356 billion dollars
20093 294 billion dollars
48
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
North America 22%
South America 3%
EU27 43%Other Europe 6%
CIS 2%
Africa Middle East 3%
Japan 5%
East and South-East Asia 14%
Oceania and other Asia 3%
North America 17%
South America 3%
EU27 46%
Other Europe 6%
CIS 2%
Africa Middle-East 4%
Japan 4 %
East and South-East Asia 15 %
Océania and other Asia 3 %
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
World Imports in Services, 9 zones(% of total imports)
19971 356 billion dollars
20093 095 billions dollars
49
North America 16%
South America4%
EU27 41%
Other Europe 4%CIS 2%
Africa Middle East 5%
Japan 9%
East and South-East Asia 15%
Oceania and other Asia 3%
North America 15%
South America 4%
EU27 43%
Other Europe 4%CIS 3%
Africa Middle-East 7%
Japan 5%
East and South-East Asia 16%
Océania and other Asia 3%
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Trade Balances on Services
50
Source : CEPII, CHELEM Balance of Payments database. * EU27
( billion current dollars)
** *
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
European Union*
North America
Other Europe
Oceania and other Asia
JapanSouth AmericaCIS
Africa Middle East
East and South-East Asia
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International Trade Services
51
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database. .
(% of world trade in services)
Exports Imports Trade Balances
(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
United Kingdom
Hong Kong
Spain
Switzerland
Russian federation
Japan
Germany
China
Saudi Arabia
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 18,6 15,1 United States 12,2 11,8United Kingdom 7,4 7,3 Germany 9,3 8,2Germany 6,1 7,0 United Kingdom 5,8 5,3France 5,9 4,4 China 2,1 5,1BLEU 2,6 4,3 Japan 9,1 4,8China 1,8 3,9 France 4,7 4,1Japan 5,1 3,9 Italy 4,3 3,7Spain 3,2 3,7 BLEU 2,3 3,5Italy 4,9 3,1 Spain 1,9 2,8Netherlands 3,6 2,8 Netherlands 3,4 2,7Total 10 59,2 55,6 Total 10 55,0 52,1
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major countries in International Trade Transportation
52
(% of world trade in transportation)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Greece
Netherlands
Norway
South Korea
BLEU
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Thailand
China
India
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 15,2 10,1 United States 12,9 9,4Germany 6,2 8,5 Germany 6,4 7,3France 6,2 5,3 China 2,7 6,5Japan 6,9 5,2 Japan 8,5 5,6United Kingdom 5,8 5,2 India 1,9 4,9Singapore 2,7 5,0 France 5,2 4,6South Korea 3,5 4,7 United Kingdom 5,9 3,9Netherlands 6,2 4,0 Singapore 2,8 3,7BLEU 3,1 4,0 South Korea 2,8 3,3China 0,9 3,9 Italy 3,7 3,2Total 10 56,9 56,0 Total 10 52,8 52,4
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeTravel
53
(% of world trade in travel)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 20,1 15,6 Germany 13,3 11,4Spain 6,1 6,9 United States 13,3 11,1France 6,4 6,4 United Kingdom 7,1 7,1Italy 6,9 5,2 China 2,0 6,1China 2,8 5,1 France 4,3 5,4Germany 4,1 4,5 Italy 4,1 3,9United kingdom 5,3 3,9 Japan 8,2 3,5Turkey 1,6 2,7 Canada 2,9 3,4Austria 2,6 2,5 BLEU 2,1 3,0Malaysia 0,9 2,0 Russia 2,5 2,9Total 10 56,7 54,6 Total 10 59,8 57,8
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
Spain
Turkey
Italy
Thailand
Russian federation
Saudi Arabia
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeOther Services*
54
(% of world trade in other services*)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
*Other than Transportation and Travel
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 19,3 16,5 United States 11,0 13,2United Kingdom 9,8 9,3 Germany 8,5 7,2Germany 7,3 7,6 United kingdom 4,8 5,2BLEU 3,3 5,5 Japan 10,0 4,9Japan 6,9 4,5 Ireland 1,8 4,4Hong Kong 2,9 4,5 China 1,7 4,1India 0,7 3,6 BLEU 2,7 4,0China 1,5 3,5 Italy 4,9 3,9Ireland 0,4 3,4 France 4,6 3,3France 5,5 3,3 Spain 2,2 3,1Total 10 57,7 61,7 Total 10 52,1 53,3
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
United Kingdom
Hong Kong
BLEU
Switzerland
Russian federation
Angola
Italy
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeCommunication
55
(% of world trade in communication)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 16,0 11,6 United States 30,5 10,4United Kingdom 7,5 9,2 United Kingdom 7,8 9,5BLEU 5,0 8,7 Germany 10,1 9,2Koweit 0,0 8,4 BLEU 1,7 6,4Germany 7,4 5,9 Netherlands 2,3 5,3Gfrance 2,4 5,6 France 2,3 5,2Netherlands 2,5 5,4 Spain 1,6 4,2Canada 5,6 2,8 Sweden 2,6 3,1Spain 2,1 2,5 Italy 3,6 3,0Sweden 3,5 2,4 Russia 1,2 2,6Total 10 52,1 62,6 Total 10 63,7 59,0
-17
-12
-7
-2
3
8
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Koweit
BLEU
United States
France
United Kingdom
Angola
Irland
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Germany
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeConstruction
56
(% of world trade in construction)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009Germany 13,4 15,4 Japan 19,9 15,2Japan 20,3 14,8 Germany 22,5 13,2China 1,5 11,2 China 4,4 7,8France 10,2 8,3 Italy 4,6 6,9United States 9,0 8,1 Angola 0,0 6,2Spain 1,4 5,0 Russia 2,9 5,9Russia 0,2 3,9 France 6,7 4,5Netherlands 8,5 3,5 Saudi Arabia 0,0 4,4Italy 8,6 3,5 Spain 0,8 3,1United Kingdom 1,1 2,9 Netherlands 6,8 2,9Total 10 74,3 76,6 Total 10 68,8 70,1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
France
China
Germany
Spain
Russian federation
Kazakhstan
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Angola
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeInsurance
57
(% of world trade in insurance)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 9,0 18,7 United States 16,0 37,4United Kingdom 22,0 15,0 China 2,8 7,7Ireland 0,0 13,5 Mexico 11,0 7,2Switzerland 6,5 6,9 Ireland 0,5 6,0Germany 7,7 6,4 Canada 7,9 3,8BLEU 3,9 5,7 Japan 5,5 3,5Canada 9,0 4,9 India 1,8 2,7Singapore 1,9 3,0 Germany 5,0 2,3Spain 1,7 2,4 Italy 4,9 2,0China 0,7 2,0 BLEU 2,1 2,0Total 10 62,4 78,6 Total 10 57,4 74,5
-36
-31
-26
-21
-16
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Ireland
Germany
BLEU
India
Japan
Mexico
China
United States
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeFinance
58
(% of world trade in finance)
Exports ImportsTrade Balances
(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 17,4 23,4 BLEU 9,9 19,8United Kingdom 28,7 22,6 United States 11,7 16,0BLEU 8,1 16,4 United Kingdom 10,7 9,4Switzerland 10,3 6,8 Germany 4,9 6,0Germany 4,7 5,0 Ireland 0,0 5,6Singapore 7,2 3,5 Spain 2,2 4,4Ireland 3,4 India 3,7Italy 6,4 3,2 Canada 4,4 3,4Japan 3,1 2,0 Italy 17,5 3,0Spain 1,6 1,9 Japan 9,4 3,0Total 10 87,6 88,2 Total 10 70,8 74,5
-2
3
8
13
18
23
28
33
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United Kingdom
United States
BLEU
Switzerland
Singapore
Russian federation
Poland
Slovakia
Ukraine
Canada
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradComputer & Information
59
(% of world trade in computer & information)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009India 24,1 United States 5,1 19,5Ireland 17,4 Germany 20,6 13,8Germany 11,8 7,5 United kingdom 4,4 7,0United States 18,9 6,9 Netherlands 4,6 6,5United Kingdom 12,1 5,9 Japan 23,3 4,3Israel 5,8 4,0 BLEU 5,4 4,2Sweden 1,1 3,5 China 1,5 3,7Finland 5,2 3,5 Brazil 1,4 3,2China 0,5 3,4 Spain 5,7 3,0Netherlands 4,4 3,2 Finland 4,5 3,0Total 10 59,9 79,3 Total 10 76,6 68,3
-14
-9
-4
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
India
Irland
Israël
united Kingdom
Sweden
Indonesia
Italy
Brazil
Japan
United States
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeRoyalties & License Fees
60
(% of world trade in royalties & license fees)
Exports ImportsTrade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 54,5 49,5 Ireland 6,7 18,5Japan 12,0 12,0 United States 15,0 13,4Germany 5,3 7,6 Japan 15,8 8,9United Kingdom 11,1 7,1 Germany 9,4 7,5France 3,4 5,2 Singapore 3,1 6,2Netherlands 3,6 3,0 China 0,9 5,9Sweden 1,6 2,6 United Kingdom 10,1 5,0Canada 1,9 1,8 Canada 3,8 4,1South Korea 0,4 1,8 South Korea 4,0 3,7BLEU 1,1 1,5 France 4,1 2,8Total 10 94,9 91,9 Total 10 72,9 76,0
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Sweden
South Korea
Canada
Singapore
China
Ireland
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeOther Business Services
61
(% of world trade in other business services)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 12,5 11,3 Germany 8,5 8,7Germany 7,5 9,5 United States 7,5 8,3United Kingdom 7,8 9,0 Italy 5,7 6,0China 2,7 5,7 United Kingdom 3,7 6,0Japan 7,0 5,3 Ireland 2,2 5,6BLEU 2,9 5,0 Japan 10,6 5,2Singapore 2,7 4,4 China 2,0 4,6France 6,9 4,2 France 5,3 4,5Netherlands 4,5 4,0 Spain 2,3 4,3Italy 4,9 3,9 BLEU 2,6 4,0Total 10 59,4 62,4 Total 10 50,4 57,2
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
United Kingdom
Singapore
Switzerland
China
Saudi Arabia
Angola
Ireland
Italy
South Korea
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeCulture
62
(% of world trade in culture)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 27,1 38,0 France 11,0 11,5United Kingdom 10,3 8,7 Germany 15,6 9,0France 10,8 5,2 Canada 7,3 6,9Canada 8,2 5,2 Italy 6,6 6,6Spain 2,7 4,7 Spain 7,7 6,4BLEU 3,1 4,6 United States 0,9 6,3Germany 1,1 3,3 BLEU 4,2 5,4Italy 3,4 3,3 Japan 6,6 3,5Hungary 0,5 2,9 Brazil 1,8 3,1Netherlands 3,5 2,2 Hungary 0,2 3,0Total 10 70,7 78,0 Total 10 61,9 61,8
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
United States
United Kingdom
Turkey
Malta
Sweden
Spain
Italy
Japan
France
Germany
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
10 Major Countries in International TradeGovernment Services
63
(% of world trade in government ervices)
Exports Imports Trade Balances(the five largest surpluses and deficits)
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-Balance of Payments database.
Country 1997 2009 Country 1997 2009United States 46,0 33,0 United States 25,6 28,0Germany 11,3 7,0 Saudi Arabia 21,1 22,5United Kingdom 3,9 5,0 United Kingdom 5,6 4,7BLEU 3,0 3,9 Brazil 1,6 2,3Netherlands 2,7 3,7 Koweit 2,0 1,8Japan 2,5 3,7 Mexico 1,4 1,8Switzerland 1,8 2,6 Russia 0,0 1,8Canada 1,9 2,4 Italy 0,5 1,7Brazil 1,1 2,2 Japan 2,5 1,4Pakistan 0,4 2,2 Morocco 0,8 1,3Total 10 74,6 65,7 Total 10 61,1 67,3
-32
-22
-12
-2
8
18
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Germany
BLEU
Netherlands
Switzerland
Bangladesh
Russian federation
Mexico
United Kingdom
United States
Saudi Arabia
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Part three : Specialization
64
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
Indicators
The indicators used in this study were chosen on the basis of the experience gained in earlier CEPII work and after thorough comparison of the methods generally used in this field.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
Revealed comparative advantages
Revealed comparative advantage 1
If ijkV represents the flow from exporting country i to importing country j of product k,
the summation of the indices is as follows:
kiik VX . exports from country i of product k
jkjk VM . imports into country j of product k
kk VW .. world trade in product k
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
For country i and product k, the balance is first calculated in relation to Gross Domestic Product at current exchange rate Y, giving (in thousandths):
i
ikikik Y
MXy
1000
The contribution of product k to the trade balance, in relation to GDP, is defined by:
f y g yik ik ik i * .
where:
i
iii
ii
ikikik Y
MXyand
MX
MXg
*1000
In addition, it is necessary to eliminate the influence of changes which are not specific to the country in question but result from the evolution of the importance of the product in world trade. In relation to a base year (r) the flows X and M in the other years (n) are adjusted by multiplying them all by:
n
nk
r
rkn
k W
W
W
We
..
:
The comparative advantage indicator f ' is therefore calculated using world weights for the base year (r). For this year it is identical to the relative contribution f. For the other years (n) the difference is all the greater, the more world trade in product k diverges from the average tendency for all merchandise.
Comparative advantages are calculated for individual products at the most detailed level of the CHELEM sectoral classification. The advantage by chain or by stage or production is then calculated by summing.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
Revealed comparative advantage 2
The formulas are described below, with Vijk indicating the flow from exporting
country i, to importing country j for product k. The summations of the various indices
are given as:
kiik VX . Exports form country i of product k
... ii VX Exports form country i of all goods and services
jkjk VM . Imports by country j of product k
... jj VM Imports of country j of all goods and services
kk VW .. World trade of product k
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
This indicator is expressed in thousandths of PPP GDP in current dollars of country i, designated by Yi. It depends on the spread between the market position of product k and the global position, given by the following formula:
1001001000 .SS
YW
F iik
i
kik
Furthermore, it is necessary to eliminate the influence of changes which are not specific to the country studied, but which follow from the evolution of the weight of the production in international trade. By referring to a base year (r), the flows for X and M are thus corrected for other years (n), by multiplying them all by:
W
W
W
We n
nk
r
rkn
k )(.
)(
)(.
)()(
The revealed comparative advantage is calculated at the most detailed level of the CHELEM categories and products. The standard deviation of the advantages/disadvantages per category provides a global measure of the degree of specialisation. The advantages/disadvantages by chain or by stage of production are obtained by summing these two categories.
Defined in this way, the indicator corresponds to a contribution to the overall balance for goods and service. Indeed, this leads to:
MXWW
MXY
F
WMX
WMX
YW
F
iik
ikiki
ik
ii
k
ikik
i
kik
...
.
..
1000
1000
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 20111
It is thus close to the definition used previously (revealed comparative advantage, first version). However, three differences should be noted:
the weighting used here is based on world trade, and not only according to the changes of a single country;
GDP in current dollars is expressed here at world prices, i.e. the purchasing power parity with respect to the whole of the world, and not simply the current exchange rate;
the overall balance includes services, and is not just limited to trade in goods.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
United States specialization
71
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Vehicles components 1,9 Crude oil - 2,8Computer equipment 1,4 Cars and cycles - 2,4Aeronautics 1,4 Refined petroleum products - 1,8Engines 1,3 Natural gas - 1,5Construction equipment 1,1 Iron Steel - 0,9Precision instruments 0,9 Non ferrous metals - 0,8Electronic components 0,9 Consumer electronics - 0,8Plastic articles 0,8 Leather - 0,5Telecommunications equipment 0,7 Meat - 0,5Electrical apparatus 0,6 Knitwear - 0,5
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Plastic articles 2,2 Crude oil - 9,9Precision instruments 2,1 Computer equipment - 2,7Engines 2,0 Telecommunications equipment - 2,3Other edible agricultural prod 1,6 Cars and cycles - 2,3Cereals 1,5 Consumer electronics - 1,8Electronic components 1,3 Knitwear - 1,5Construction equipment 1,3 Clothing - 1,3Toiletries 1,1 Leather - 1,3Paints 0,9 Furniture - 0,8Pharmaceuticals 0,9 Natural gas - 0,5
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Canada specialization
72
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Natural gas 23,1 Vehicles components - 17,4Paper 12,6 Electrical apparatus - 4,8Non ferrous metals 8,5 Miscellaneous hardware - 4,5Cars and cycles 7,3 Plastic articles - 3,8I ron ores 4,0 Computer equipment - 3,8Crude oil 3,7 Engines - 3,5Non ferrous ores 3,5 Refined petroleum products - 3,3Cereals 2,5 Construction equipment - 3,1Commercial vehicles 1,9 Miscellaneous manuf. articles - 2,5Meat 1,3 Precision instruments - 2,4
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 16,4 Computer equipment - 5,4Natural gas 9,7 Miscellaneous hardware - 5,0Paper 6,9 Electrical apparatus - 4,8Non ferrous metals 6,3 Miscellaneous manuf. articles - 4,7Aeronautics 4,7 Commercial vehicles - 4,5Cereals 4,3 Engines - 4,4Coals 4,2 Vehicles components - 3,9Refined petroleum products 4,0 Pharmaceuticals - 3,6Cars and cycles 2,8 Telecommunications equipment - 3,3Meat 2,6 Consumer electronics - 2,9
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
France specialization
73
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Cars and cycles 3,9 Crude oil - 17,9Refined petroleum products 2,7 Coals - 1,5Pharmaceuticals 2,1 Other edible agricultural prod - 1,4Electrical apparatus 1,6 Furniture - 1,4Beverages 1,4 Non ferrous metals - 1,2I ron Steel 1,4 Meat - 0,9Rubber articles (incl. tyres) 1,3 Electronic components - 0,9Toiletries 1,2 Precision instruments - 0,7Vehicles components 1,2 Paper - 0,6Leather 1,1 Non-edible agricultural prod. - 0,6
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Aeronautics 10,8 Crude oil - 11,5Pharmaceuticals 4,9 Natural gas - 3,4Toiletries 4,6 Cars and cycles - 2,8Beverages 3,8 Computer equipment - 2,5Cereals 2,5 Knitwear - 2,0Vehicles components 2,4 Refined petroleum products - 1,9Engines 2,1 Clothing - 1,8Fats 1,3 Furniture - 1,5Electrical apparatus 1,2 Consumer electronics - 1,4Precision instruments 0,9 Telecommunications equipment - 1,3
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Germany specialization
74
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Cars and cycles 8,6 Crude oil - 20,2Specialized machines 5,3 Other edible agricultural prod - 4,9Electrical apparatus 5,3 Refined petroleum products - 4,5Engines 4,6 Non ferrous metals - 4,4Miscellaneous hardware 4,4 Meat - 2,2Pharmaceuticals 4,1 Paper - 2,2Plastic articles 3,9 Knitwear - 2,1Vehicles components 3,0 Non ferrous ores - 2,0Commercial vehicles 2,6 Clothing - 1,9Telecommunications equipment 2,3 Leather - 1,7
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Cars and cycles 14,3 Crude oil - 13,6Specialized machines 7,2 Natural gas - 10,0Engines 5,1 Other edible agricultural prod - 6,5Miscellaneous hardware 4,2 Computer equipment - 3,8Precision instruments 3,9 Knitwear - 3,0Plastic articles 3,4 Clothing - 2,7Commercial vehicles 3,0 Telecommunications equipment - 2,6Construction equipment 2,9 Refined petroleum products - 2,3Machine tools 2,3 Leather - 2,3Electrical apparatus 2,2 Consumer electronics - 2,2
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Italy specialization
75
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
AgricultureServices
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Refined petroleum products 8,8 Crude oil - 27,7Knitwear 6,2 Meat - 3,4Cars and cycles 4,6 Non ferrous metals - 2,7Leather 4,4 I ron ores - 2,3Computer equipment 3,8 I ron Steel - 2,1Domestic electrical appliances 3,1 Electronic components - 1,9Plastic articles 2,3 Non-edible agricultural prod. - 1,7Engines 1,9 Coals - 1,7Miscellaneous hardware 1,7 Fats - 1,6Furniture 1,5 Paper - 1,1
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Miscellaneous hardware 8,1 Crude oil - 15,3Specialized machines 7,6 Natural gas - 10,9Engines 7,6 Cars and cycles - 8,9Leather 3,9 Meat - 3,3Furniture 3,8 Computer equipment - 3,0Machine tools 3,0 Basic organic chemicals - 2,8Refined petroleum products 2,8 Electricity - 1,8Yarns fabrics 2,7 Non ferrous metals - 1,8Vehicles components 2,6 Consumer electronics - 1,8Beverages 2,5 Telecommunications equipment - 1,7
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
United Kingdom specialization
76
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Cars and cycles 6,3 Crude oil - 18,3Vehicles components 5,0 Refined petroleum products - 6,0Engines 4,9 Fats - 3,5Pharmaceuticals 4,1 Natural gas - 3,3Telecommunications equipment 4,0 Other edible agricultural prod - 3,1Electrical apparatus 4,0 Meat - 2,5Commercial vehicles 3,2 Non ferrous ores - 2,4Miscellaneous hardware 2,9 Paper - 2,4Aeronautics 1,9 Non ferrous metals - 2,1Electrical equipment 1,9 Preserved meat/fish - 1,8
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Pharmaceuticals 7,8 Non- monetary gold - 9,3Aeronautics 5,3 Other edible agricultural prod - 3,1J ewellery, works of art 3,4 Knitwear - 2,6Engines 2,9 Computer equipment - 2,5Refined petroleum products 2,5 Clothing - 2,3Precision instruments 2,0 Consumer electronics - 2,1Basic organic chemicals 2,0 Leather - 2,0Paints 1,4 Furniture - 1,6Construction equipment 1,3 Preserved meat/fish - 1,5Printing 1,3 Cars and cycles - 1,4
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Turkey specialization
77
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Other edible agricultural prod 6,8 Vehicles components - 1,5Non-edible agricultural prod. 2,4 Engines - 1,2Animal food 1,2 Crude oil - 1,1Non ferrous ores 0,8 Electrical apparatus - 0,9Non ferrous metals 0,6 Plastic articles - 0,7Fats 0,3 Miscellaneous hardware - 0,7Meat 0,3 Specialized machines - 0,6Unprocessed minerals n.e.s. 0,2 Basic organic chemicals - 0,6Sugar 0,2 Construction equipment - 0,5Preserved fruits 0,1 Pharmaceuticals - 0,5
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Knitwear 11,4 Crude oil - 8,8Non-monetary gold 7,1 I ron ores - 6,4Clothing 6,7 Refined petroleum products - 5,9Other edible agricultural prod 5,8 Pharmaceuticals - 5,4Cars and cycles 5,0 Engines - 4,4Commercial vehicles 4,7 Basic organic chemicals - 3,7Carpets 4,7 Plastic articles - 3,7I ron Steel 4,2 Telecommunications equipment - 3,7Domestic electrical appliances 3,7 Computer equipment - 3,6Cement 3,4 Coals - 3,4
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Japan specialization
78
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Consumer electronics 6,3 Crude oil - 18,4Cars and cycles 4,2 Refined petroleum products - 5,9Ships 3,7 I ron ores - 4,8Electrical apparatus 3,3 Non ferrous ores - 3,5I ron Steel 2,9 Non-edible agricultural prod. - 2,6Miscellaneous hardware 2,8 Coals - 2,5Optics 2,6 Non ferrous metals - 2,4Miscellaneous manuf. articles 2,6 Natural gas - 2,2Plastic articles 2,4 Computer equipment - 2,0Yarns fabrics 2,3 Pharmaceuticals - 1,8
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Cars and cycles 11,6 Crude oil - 15,9Engines 4,3 Natural gas - 6,9Vehicles components 3,9 Coals - 3,7I ron Steel 3,8 Meat - 2,8Ships 3,7 Non ferrous ores - 2,5Electrical apparatus 3,6 Knitwear - 2,4Electronic components 3,0 Clothing - 2,3Specialized machines 2,6 Leather - 2,0Plastic articles 2,1 Pharmaceuticals - 1,8Miscellaneous hardware 2,0 Other edible agricultural prod - 1,7
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
Energy Mining
I ndustry
AgricultureServices
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
South African Union specialization
79
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
AgricultureServices
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
J ewellery, works of art 32,0 Cars and cycles - 9,9Non ferrous ores 16,9 Telecommunications equipment - 7,2Non ferrous metals 14,8 Electrical apparatus - 6,9Iron Steel 11,0 Engines - 6,2Preserved fruits 9,1 Plastic articles - 5,9Sugar 6,8 Vehicles components - 5,8Other edible agricultural prod 5,4 Commercial vehicles - 5,1Cereals 4,2 Computer equipment - 4,5Non- edible agricultural prod. 4,2 Miscellaneous hardware - 3,5Unprocessed minerals n.e.s. 4,0 Aeronautics - 3,4
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Non ferrous metals 30,5 Crude oil - 28,3Coals 15,2 Telecommunications equipment - 6,7Non ferrous ores 15,1 Computer equipment - 6,6I ron Steel 13,8 Pharmaceuticals - 4,9I ron ores 11,6 Vehicles components - 4,8Jewellery, works of art 11,4 Electrical apparatus - 4,0Non-monetary gold 8,8 Miscellaneous hardware - 3,9Other edible agricultural prod 7,1 Refined petroleum products - 3,6Basic inorganic chemicals 2,1 Precision instruments - 3,2Beverages 1,7 Miscellaneous manuf. articles - 3,0
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Mexico specialization
80
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 4,1 Telecommunications equipment - 3,6Meat 2,7 Engines - 2,4Other edible agricultural prod 2,6 Vehicles components - 1,9Pharmaceuticals 2,5 Cars and cycles - 1,6Non ferrous metals 2,2 Specialized machines - 1,4Sugar 1,4 Computer equipment - 1,2Unprocessed minerals n.e.s. 1,3 Construction equipment - 1,0Non- edible agricultural prod. 1,2 Commercial vehicles - 1,0Cereals 1,0 Electrical apparatus - 0,9Non ferrous ores 0,9 Miscellaneous hardware - 0,9
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 27,2 Plastic articles - 9,6Consumer electronics 16,9 Refined petroleum products - 8,2Cars and cycles 10,7 Basic organic chemicals - 7,0Commercial vehicles 8,9 Optics - 5,7Precision instruments 4,1 Electronic components - 5,0Non- monetary gold 3,6 Miscellaneous hardware - 4,5Telecommunications equipment 3,6 Paper - 3,8Other edible agricultural prod 3,5 Iron Steel - 3,5Domestic electrical appliances 3,2 Specialized machines - 3,3Beverages 2,7 Cereals - 3,3
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
Energy Mining
I ndustryAgriculture
Services
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Brazil specialization
81
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Other edible agricultural prod 10,8 Crude oil - 6,3Iron ores 4,2 Natural gas - 2,6Sugar 1,9 Telecommunications equipment - 1,4Non- edible agricultural prod. 1,8 Engines - 1,1Preserved fruits 1,3 Electrical apparatus - 1,1Iron Steel 1,0 Refined petroleum products - 1,0Animal food 0,9 Basic organic chemicals - 0,9Non ferrous ores 0,9 Miscellaneous hardware - 0,8Toiletries 0,6 Non ferrous metals - 0,7Meat 0,5 Aeronautics - 0,7
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Other edible agricultural prod 10,2 Fertilizers - 3,0Iron ores 9,2 Telecommunications equipment - 2,6Sugar 4,2 Pharmaceuticals - 2,4Meat 4,2 Cars and cycles - 2,4Iron Steel 2,3 Computer equipment - 2,0Animal food 2,0 Specialized machines - 1,9Crude oil 1,6 Electrical apparatus - 1,9Paper 1,5 Precision instruments - 1,8Non ferrous ores 1,0 Plastic articles - 1,7Leather 0,9 Electronic components - 1,7
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Egypt specialization
82
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Non- edible agricultural prod. 10,5 Cereal products - 3,0Yarns fabrics 8,6 Engines - 3,0Refined petroleum products 6,3 Electrical apparatus - 2,3Other edible agricultural prod 1,5 Telecommunications equipment - 1,8Cereals 1,2 Commercial vehicles - 1,8Furniture 0,7 Fats - 1,8Unprocessed minerals n.e.s. 0,7 Pharmaceuticals - 1,8Knitwear 0,7 Iron Steel - 1,7Clothing 0,6 Basic organic chemicals - 1,5Miscellaneous manuf. articles 0,6 Fertilizers - 1,2
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Natural gas 25,3 Engines - 8,0Crude oil 16,9 Iron Steel - 7,8Refined petroleum products 12,8 Cereals - 6,3Other edible agricultural prod 5,3 Specialized machines - 5,8Fertilizers 5,0 Commercial vehicles - 4,3Clothing 4,5 Construction equipment - 3,8Knitwear 4,3 Cars and cycles - 3,8Carpets 3,1 Iron ores - 3,2Unprocessed minerals n.e.s. 2,6 Pharmaceuticals - 3,1Preserved fruits 1,4 Tubes - 3,0
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Saudi Arabia specialization
83
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 197,3 Pharmaceuticals - 17,4Refined petroleum products 36,6 Telecommunications equipment - 16,8Natural gas 10,7 Engines - 16,5Iron ores 0,0 Electrical apparatus - 16,4Electricity 0,0 Commercial vehicles - 16,0Non- monetary gold 0,0 Cars and cycles - 11,5
Miscellaneous hardware - 10,1Furniture - 9,3Construction equipment - 8,4Aeronautics - 7,3
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 225,3 Cars and cycles - 24,9Refined petroleum products 19,1 Engines - 21,5Natural gas 6,7 Cereals - 12,1Basic organic chemicals 5,5 Pharmaceuticals - 10,8Plastic articles 3,9 Telecommunications equipment - 10,4Fertilizers 0,6 Electrical apparatus - 9,9Non ferrous ores 0,4 Commercial vehicles - 9,5Electricity 0,0 Miscellaneous hardware - 9,5
Iron Steel - 8,9Aeronautics - 8,4
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Nigeria specialization
84
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 78,9 Pharmaceuticals - 7,9Other edible agricultural prod 11,4 Electrical apparatus - 6,4Fats 2,2 Miscellaneous hardware - 5,4Non ferrous metals 2,1 Cars and cycles - 5,3Non-edible agricultural prod. 2,0 Engines - 4,9Animal food 1,3 Commercial vehicles - 4,7Non ferrous ores 0,9 Telecommunications equipment - 4,4I ron ores 0,1 Yarns fabrics - 4,0Wood articles 0,0 Vehicles components - 3,4Electricity 0,0 Plastic articles - 3,2
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 210,8 Refined petroleum products - 32,5Natural gas 27,2 Cars and cycles - 18,5Other edible agricultural prod 7,3 Cereals - 13,0Non- edible agricultural prod. 0,6 Commercial vehicles - 12,8Non ferrous ores 0,3 Engines - 12,0Coals 0,2 Plastic articles - 11,0Manufactured tobaccos 0,1 Miscellaneous hardware - 10,9Leather 0,1 Specialized machines - 9,0I ron ores 0,0 Construction equipment - 8,9Coke 0,0 Telecommunications equipment - 8,6
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
India specialization
85
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Other edible agricultural prod 3,6 Basic organic chemicals - 2,0Yarns fabrics 3,1 Cereals - 1,6Carpets 2,4 Engines - 1,5I ron ores 2,4 Electrical apparatus - 1,2Leather 2,3 Fertilizers - 1,0Refined petroleum products 0,7 Electrical equipment - 0,8Animal food 0,7 Vehicles components - 0,8Jewellery, works of art 0,5 Non ferrous metals - 0,7Non ferrous ores 0,5 Telecommunications equipment- 0,7Clothing 0,3 Specialized machines - 0,6
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Jewellery, works of art 17,3 Crude oil - 32,6Refined petroleum products 14,6 Non-monetary gold - 7,0Clothing 5,5 Coals - 4,4Pharmaceuticals 4,6 Telecommunications equipment- 2,6I ron ores 4,5 Fats - 2,3Knitwear 4,2 Fertilizers - 2,2Yarns fabrics 3,5 Computer equipment - 2,0Carpets 3,3 Specialized machines - 2,0Cereals 3,3 Natural gas - 1,9Leather 3,1 Non ferrous ores - 1,8
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
South Korea specialization
86
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Knitwear 15,8 Crude oil - 6,1Miscellaneous manuf. articles 9,6 Engines - 5,7Clothing 8,9 Commercial vehicles - 5,1Wood articles 7,6 Basic organic chemicals - 5,0Non ferrous ores 4,0 Refined petroleum products - 3,7Meat 3,8 Iron Steel - 3,3Leather 3,1 Ships - 3,1Yarns fabrics 2,7 Specialized machines - 3,0Electronic components 2,0 Electrical equipment - 2,3Other edible agricultural prod 1,3 Pharmaceuticals - 2,1
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Ships 38,3 Crude oil - 64,2Telecommunications equipment 28,5 Natural gas - 21,3Cars and cycles 26,0 Coals - 11,7Optics 23,6 Non ferrous ores - 9,1Plastic articles 11,1 Iron ores - 6,2Vehicles components 8,7 Precision instruments - 4,2Refined petroleum products 7,9 Non ferrous metals - 3,6Yarns fabrics 5,1 Specialized machines - 3,5Consumer electronics 3,4 Meat - 3,4Commercial vehicles 2,8 Cereals - 3,4
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Taiwan specialization
87
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Computer equipment 26,9 Non- monetary gold - 240,1Plastic articles 12,9 Electronic components - 33,3Telecommunications equipment 12,4 Crude oil - 19,9Consumer electronics 11,0 Basic organic chemicals - 12,3Knitwear 9,6 Natural gas - 11,9Miscellaneous hardware 8,8 Engines - 6,8Leather 8,2 Iron Steel - 6,2Clothing 8,2 Refined petroleum products - 5,1Miscellaneous manuf. articles 6,6 Pharmaceuticals - 4,0Electrical apparatus 6,2 Precision instruments - 3,6
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Optics 26,1 Crude oil - 66,2Electronic components 25,0 Natural gas - 15,3Electrical apparatus 21,9 Coals - 14,2Plastic articles 19,6 Non ferrous metals - 10,3Miscellaneous hardware 17,4 Iron ores - 8,4Yarns fabrics 13,9 Specialized machines - 7,7Telecommunications equipment 10,8 Engines - 6,1Refined petroleum products 7,3 Paints - 5,7Computer equipment 7,1 Toiletries - 5,6Miscellaneous manuf. articles 6,8 Precision instruments - 5,5
1967Strong points Weak points
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Russian Federation specialization
88
Revealed comparative advantages1992 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
Agriculture
Services
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Crude oil 59,1 Other edible agricultural prod - 7,8Refined petroleum products 25,9 Pharmaceuticals - 7,7Natural gas 21,0 Cars and cycles - 7,4Non ferrous metals 6,0 Engines - 6,4Iron Steel 5,9 Telecommunications equipment - 6,0Coals 5,0 Specialized machines - 5,9Fertilizers 2,7 Miscellaneous hardware - 5,5Cereals 1,9 Computer equipment - 5,3Basic inorganic chemicals 1,8 Meat - 5,2Non- edible agricultural prod. 1,3 Plastic articles - 4,9
2009Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Ukraine specialization
89
Revealed comparative advantages1992 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
AgricultureServices
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Iron Steel 101,0 Natural gas - 52,1Cereals 25,4 Crude oil - 22,8Iron ores 17,3 Plastic articles - 12,7Tubes 16,9 Pharmaceuticals - 11,7Fats 12,6 Refined petroleum products - 9,5Other edible agricultural prod 5,6 Cars and cycles - 7,8Commercial vehicles 4,3 Vehicles components - 7,0Fertilizers 3,8 Meat - 6,9Basic inorganic chemicals 3,4 Toiletries - 6,8Sugar 3,0 Specialized machines - 6,6
Strong points Weak points2009
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
China specialization
90
Revealed comparative advantages1967 – 2009
thousandths of 2005 PPP GDP in current dollars
Source : CEPII, CHELEM-International Trade, CHELEM-GDP and CHELEM-Balance of Payments databases
Energy Mining
I ndustry
AgricultureServices
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
thousandts of GDP in current dollars
Other edible agricultural prod 1,2 Iron Steel - 1,4Miscellaneous manuf. articles 0,9 Basic organic chemicals - 1,4Meat 0,8 Tubes - 0,8Yarns fabrics 0,7 Fertilizers - 0,7Clothing 0,6 Precision instruments - 0,5Preserved fruits 0,4 Machine tools - 0,4Leather 0,3 Plastic articles - 0,4Coals 0,3 Engines - 0,3Non ferrous ores 0,3 Non ferrous metals - 0,3Knitwear 0,2 Commercial vehicles - 0,3
thousandths of GDP in current dollars
Computer equipment 17,1 Crude oil - 18,7Telecommunications equipment 14,0 Electronic components - 12,2Miscellaneous manuf. articles 10,0 Iron ores - 11,1Leather 8,6 Non ferrous ores - 6,5Knitwear 8,3 Non ferrous metals - 6,1Clothing 7,9 Optics - 5,9Consumer electronics 6,4 Plastic articles - 5,5Furniture 4,5 Basic organic chemicals - 5,0Miscellaneous hardware 3,7 Other edible agricultural prod - 4,1Domestic electrical appliances 3,6 Non- edible agricultural prod. - 3,1
2009Strong points Weak points
1967Strong points Weak points
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201191
Appendix
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Geographical classification
92
3 continents 6 regions 10 zones of which Other countries
America North America (a) North America(a) CanadaMexico
United States
South and Central America South and Central America and the Caribbean (b) and the Caribbean (b) Brazil Argentina
ChileColombia
PeruVenezuela
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Geographical classification (continued)
93
3 continents 6 regions 10 zones of which Other countries
Europe Europe European Union (c) EU15 Austria
Euro Zone (d) Belgium
Africa France Bulgaria
Germany (e) Czech Republic
Middle East Italy Cyprus United Kingdom Denmark
EstoniaFinlandGreece
HungaryIrelandLatvia
LithuaniaLuxembourg
MaltaNetherlands
PolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia
SpainSweden
Other Europe Turkey
CIS Russian FederationUkraine
Africa Middle East Middle East, Maghreb EgyptSaudi Arabia
Sub-saharan Africa NigeriaSouth Africa
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 2011
Geographical classification (continued)
94
3 continents 6 regions 10 zones of which Other countries
Asia Oceania Japan Japan Japan
Other Asia Oceania East and South East Asia ASEAN 10 Hong KongChinea
South KoreaTaiwan
Oceania and other Asia Australia New ZealandIndia
Other Asia and Oceania
(a) including Mexico in the new harmonized classification of the WTO that can be found in the new issue of Internaétional Trade Statistics.(b) South and Central America and the Caribbean is referred to as South America(c) European Union 27 (including Bulgaria, Romania)(d) Euro Zone 13 : Austria, Belgium, Espagne, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, including Slovenia.(e) Former East Germany included since 1991.(f) ASEAN 10 :Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonésia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201195
Sectoral classification*
• • Energy• IA Coals• IB Crude oil• IC Natural gas• IG Coke• IH Refined petroleum products• II Electricity•• Food agriculture • JA Cereals• JB Other edible agricultural products• JC Non-edible agricultural products• KA Cereal products• KB Fats• KC Meat• KD Preserved meat/fish• KE Preserved fruits• KF Sugar• KG Animal food• KH Beverages• KI Manufactured tobaccos•• Textiles• DA Yarns fabrics• DB Clothing• DC Knitwear• DD Carpets• DE Leather•
• Wood Paper• EA Wood articles• EB Furniture• EC Paper• ED Printing• EE Miscellaneous manuf. articles
•• Chemicals• BA Cement• BB Ceramics• BC Glass• GA Basic inorganic chemicals• GB Fertilizers• GC Basic organic chemicals• GD Paints• GE Toiletries• GF Pharmaceuticals• GG Plastics• GH Plastic articles• GI Rubber articles (incl.types)• HC Unprocessed minerals n.e.s.
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World Economic Overview
M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201196
Sectoral classification* (continued)
• Iron & Steel• CA Iron Steel• CB Tubes• HA Iron ores•• Non ferrous• CC Non ferrous metals• HB Non ferrous ores•• Machinery• FA Metallic structures• FB Miscellaneous hardware• FC Engines• FD Agricultural equipment• FE Machine tools• FF Construction equipment• FG Specialized machines• FH Arms• FV Ships• FW Aeronautics•• Vehicles• FS Vehicles components• FT Cars and cycles• FU Commercial vehicles
• Electrical• FP Domestic electrical appliances• FQ Electrical equipment• FR Electrical apparatus•• Electronic• FI Precision instruments• FJ Clockmaking• FK Optics• FL Electronic components• FM Consumer electronics• FN Telecommunications equipment• FO Computer equipment
* CHELEM-International Trade sectoral classification in 71 categories of products, aggregated in 11 chains.
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M. Fouquin, H. Guimbard, C. Herzog & D. Unal December 201197
“CHELEM - International Trade: new classifications”, A. de Saint Vaulry, The CEPII NewsLetter, Databases, n°37, 2nd Quarter, 2008.
«Base de données CHELEM-commerce international du CEPII», A. de Saint Vaulry, Document de travail du CEPII, n°2008-09, juin, 2008.
“CHELEM-GDP: New Basis for PPP Calculation”, C. Herzog et D. Ünal-Kesenci, The CEPII NewsLetter, Databases, n°36, 1st Quarter, 2008.
«Mondialisation des services: de la mesure à l’analyse», I. Bensidoun et D. Ünal-Kesenci, Document de travail du CEPII, n°2007-14, août, 2007.
«Base de données CHELEM-BAL du CEPII», H. Boumellessa et D. Ünal-Kesenci, Document de travail du CEPII, n°2006-08, mars, 2006.
Nations et Mondialisation, G. Lafay, M. Freudenberg, C. Herzog et D. Ünal-Kesenci, Economica, 1999.
Compétitivité des Nations, rapport collectif du CEPII sous la direction de M. Fouquin, Economica, 1998.
«CHELEM, la base de données du CEPII sur CD-ROM», CEPII, juillet, 1997.
“CHELEM, the CEPII database on CD-ROM”, CEPII , July, 1997.
«Les indicateurs de spécialisation internationale», G. Lafay, Document de travail du CEPII, n°88-01, janvier, 1988.
References