world economic and trade outlook the world of trade data imsf 2009 annual meeting may 4-6, 2009 new...
TRANSCRIPT
World Economic and Trade OutlookThe World of Trade Data
IMSF 2009 Annual MeetingMay 4-6, 2009
New Orleans, LA
Elizabeth RouhaniConsultant
Global Commerce and Transport
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
IHS Global Insight
Global Insight was founded in 2001 with the merger of WEFA (est. 1963) and DRI (est. 1968). In the 7 years that followed, we expanded our offerings and expertise through key acquisitions.
In October 2008, Global Insight became part of the IHS family.
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Real GDP Industrial Production
(Percent change for the world economy)
The Business Cycle is Not DeadThe World Economy Recovers Starting in 2010
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan OtherAmericas
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N. Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
OtherAsia-
Pacific
2007 2008 2009 2010
(Real GDP, percent change)
Economic Performance Varies by RegionDeveloped Country Economies Are Shrinking
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
World Seaborne Tonnage Falls 2.8% in 2009
(Percent Change in Tonnage of World Sea Trade)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
World Container Trade Volume Down 5.8%in 2009
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Percent Change in Volume of Container Trade, in TEUs)
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
World Trade Service
TOTAL TRADE VALUE (Nom-Real)
TOTAL TRADE METRIC TONS
SEA AIR OTHER
CONTAINERTONS
DRYBULK
LIQUIDBULK
GENERALCARGO
20’ 40’
TEUs
16 Trade Concepts
70 Country/regions (World) 77 ISIC Commodity categories History
Value 1980 Tons 1995
20 years forecast horizon Updated quarterly
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
Sources for Trade and other Indicators
IHS Global InsightWorld Trade
Service
IHS Global InsightWorld Trade
Service
UN
StatisticsCanada*
US CensusBureau
OECD
Eurostat
IndustryPublic
Sources
GovernmentAgencies
Ports
Others
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
UN Data Experience
85% of trade is reported in weight. Late reporting: 2 year lag for some countries Data revisions for timeseries Mirror trade discrepancies Countries do not report all their trade
Saudi Arabia exports to Taiwan– Taiwan not official member state of UN, therefore cannot show
their trade.
Areas, nes 9310 SITC Special Transaction commodity Unit Values inconsistencies
Commodity Direction Reporter Partner SITCRice,milled,semi-milled Exports 076 056 0423
Concept Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Value ('000$) 8,470.00$ 9,317.00$ 10,248.70$ 11,273.57$ 12,400.93$ Tons 4,982 5,647 6,405,438 6,263 6,703Unit Value 1.7 1.65 0.0016 1.8 1.85
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
Reconciliation of trade statistics…is it possible? Main difference is the methodology for reporting.
– Belgium maintains 2 different trade datasets
UN – EUROSTAT data differences
Belgium
EU Concept
Country ofConsignments
National Concept
Country ofOrigin for Imports
UnitedNations
Eurostat
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
US Census Bureau
All methods data – vessel, air, and container Custom Districts
– Port level HS 10 digit or 6 digit Only a few commodities have been difficult to size
– Fertilizers
– Coal
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
WTS vs Other Sources
Ports PIERS Other Sources
– Our numbers are based on final destination
– No transshipments
– No military cargo
– For containers, it is based on full not empty.• Do not account for container movements
Copyright © 2009 IHS Global Insight. All Rights Reserved.
Snapshot of the Navigator
