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UK Seafarers Analysis : Ten years on

David GlenCITM

London Metropolitan UniversityPresentation to

IMSF ConferenceApril 2007

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• Origins of the present ‘UK Seafarers Analysis’

• Period of Transition• Widening Scope of STCW95• Inclusion of CEC’s • Details for certificated, uncert, & cadets• The Active Seafarer• Trends and Forecasts

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Background

• Possible development of European wide Database under auspices of EMSA

• Timely to review ‘lessons learned’ in publishing the Analysis from 1997

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Origins of Present ‘Analysis’

• State of play in 1997

• Use of STCW78 information

• Original criteria for ‘counting seafarers’– Certificated officers– Ratings– Cadets

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Period of Transition

• Creation of MCA SDS database in 1998

• Fully operational in 2002

• Use of overlapping databases

• Generated some instability in numbers

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Widening Scope of STCW95

• Yachts - MASTER (yachts) identifiable

• Tugs and Inshore Craft

• CECs on UK registered vessels

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Uncertificated officers

• Not germane to ‘Strategic Interests’

• Germane to employment and significance of sector

• Measured through UKCoS Manpower Survey

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Ratings

• UKCoS main source

• RMT database also examined, but not used

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Cadets• Originally used GAFT• Now use

– Data from SMaRT– Cross referenced with MNTB data from

training colleges and training providers

• Issues– SMaRT includes EU nationals– Central database mooted but not developed– UK Data Protection Act used as barrier

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‘The Active Seafarer’

• Certification method overstates numbers– Proportion ‘Active’ estimated

• NUMAST survey 1999• Cardiff University study of on-shore employment

– Use 16%– Is an issue still

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Seafarer Retirement• Two types

– Retirement from ‘active at sea’– Retirement from working population

• Deal with former by assuming a ‘wastage rate’ per year

• Original assumptions were 57 and 65.

• Now deal with latter by modelling a distribution around mean age of 62.

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Model Assumptions

• Age profile of existing cert officers taken

• Numbers and age distribution of new OOW officers based on cadet entry and wastage rates

• ‘Wastage rates’ for 20-40, 40 to retirement

• Retirement Age distribution applied around mean of 62

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Model PerformanceForecasts of 2006 numbers, 1997-2005

Forecast Retirement for 2006 Age % error

1997 13,400 65 -18.71 1998 12,918 -22.37 1999 12,898 -22.53 2000 13,744 -16.18 2001 13,788 -15.86 2002 13,907 -15.00 2003 15,887 -1.69 2004 14,183 62 -13.03 2005 15,040 -7.16 2006 16,157 Actual

Source: UK Seafarers Analysis, 1997-2005.

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Deck and Engine Forecasts 1997- 2005 Year of Forecast Deck Engine

Deck error %

Engine error %

Actual 1997 17,026 9,116 7,910 1997 13,400 7,102 6,298 -13.96 -5.41 1998 12,918 6,847 6,071 -17.05 -8.81 1999 12,898 6,965 5,933 -15.62 -10.89 2000 13,744 7,422 6,322 -10.08 -5.04 2001 13,788 7,997 5,791 -3.11 -13.02 2002 13,907 7,788 6,119 -5.65 -8.09 2003 15,887 8,897 6,990 7.79 4.99 2004 14,183 7,375 6,808 -10.65 2.25 2005 15,040 7,490 7,550 -9.26 13.40

Actual 2006 14,922 8,254 6,658 Ave -8.62 -3.40 RMSE (%) 25.86 10.21

Source: Calculated by AuthorNote: Figures based on adjusted 2006 total. Proportional splits based onUKCoS survey for the year in which forecast is made.

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Forecast Performance• Not good

• Consistently forecasting gloomier future than reality

• Sources of error– Data – Cadet entry numbers – Assumptions on wastage rates– Model itself flawed

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Forecast Performance

• Data– STCW95 widened scope so numbers are not

strictly comparable– Can adjust for these differences

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Comparison of Unadjusted and Adjusted changes in UK certificated officer numbers 1997 2006 Annual Cumulative Total % change % change Actual 17,026 16,157 -0.58 -5.24 Adjusted 17,026 14,922 -1.47 -13.19 1997 Predicted 13,400 -2.66 -23.95 Deck Actual 9,116 8,987 -0.16 -1.43 Adjusted 9,116 8,254 -1.10 -9.93 1997 Predicted 7,102 -2.77 -24.97 Engine Actual 7,910 7,170 -1.09 -9.82 Adjusted 7,910 6,658 -1.91 -17.23 1997 Predicted 6,298 -2.53 -22.79 Source: Calculated by Author Note: The Adjusted Figure is obtained by removing certificated officers who hold only yacht or TIC endorsements, and those UK nationals who hold Certificates of Equivalent Competency. None of these were included in the 1997 data.

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Lessons for EMSA• Consistency in definition of ‘active seafarer’• Core competencies should be identified – I.e. should

‘Tug & Inshore craft’ be included • Standard format for data transmission between national

agencies & EMSA• Independent Hyperbase or Snapshot of data from

National Agencies• Compliance with National & EU Data protection

legislation may generate issues• Database design should be driven by information

requirements, not admin needs • Certification ignores Ratings and Cadets – how to

measure and monitor?• Projection models – alternatives to the Stock-flow eg

demand based models?

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Concluding Remarks

• Given the impression all is doom and gloom

• Very great improvement since 1996

• Expect that further improvements will take place in the next 10 years