world bank...

The World BankLusaka Transmission and Distribution Rehabilitation Project (P133184)

REPORT NO.: RES31589

RESTRUCTURING PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING

OF THE

LUSAKA TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION REHABILITATION PROJECT

APPROVED ON MAY 30, 2013

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICEAFRICA REGION

Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Paul Noumba Um

Senior Global Practice Director: Riccardo PulitiPractice Manager/Manager: Wendy E. Hughes

Task Team Leader: Joseph Mwelwa Kapika, Mirlan Aldayarov

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized


ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CY Calendar YearEIB European Investment BankEIRR Economic Internal Rate of ReturnESIA Environmental and Social Impact AssessmentESMP Environmental and Social Management PlanFAT Factory Acceptance TestFM Financial ManagementFY Financial YearGRM Grievance Redress MechanismGRZ Government of the Republic of ZambiaIDA International Development AssociationIFR Interim Financial ReportkV Kilo VoltLTDRP Lusaka Transmission and Distribution Rehabilitation ProjectMVA Mega Volt AmpereNPV Net Present ValuePDO Project Development ObjectivesPIU Project Implementation UnitRAP Resettlement Action PlanRPF Resettlement Policy FrameworkSAIFI System Average Interruption Frequency IndexSDR Special Drawing RightZEMA Zambia Environmental Management AgencyZESCO ZESCO Limited


BASIC DATA

Product Information

Project ID Financing Instrument

P133184 Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Current EA Category

Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)

Approval Date Current Closing Date

30-May-2013 28-Feb-2019

Organizations

Borrower Responsible Agency

Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Energy ZESCO

Project Development Objective (PDO)

Original PDOThe objectives of this project are to increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission and distribution system in the Lusaka area.OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDOSummary Status of Financing

Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness ClosingNet

Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed

IDA-52600 30-May-2013 03-Oct-2013 28-Feb-2014 28-Feb-2019 105.00 36.98 63.06

Policy Waiver(s)

Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)?No


2

I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

A. SUMMARY

1. This Restructuring Paper proposes to restructure the ongoing Lusaka Transmission and Distribution Rehabilitation Project (LTDRP, P133184) (‘Project’) by: (i) Extending the closing date of the Project by 24 months from February 28, 2019 to February 19, 2021; (ii) Dropping the European Investment Bank (‘EIB’) financed Component 2 (Rehabilitation of the 33 kilo Volt (kV) and 11 kV Distribution Network in Lusaka Area) from the Project; (iii) Cancellation of credit proceeds in the amount of US$4 million from Component 1; (iv) Reallocating SDR 4.3 million (US$6 million equivalent) from Component 1 to Component 3 to increase the allocation for Component 3 (Technical Assistance and Project Management); (v) Changing the project development objectives (PDO) due to the dropping of Component 2; and (vi) Adjusting the results indicators and targets, to reflect the proposed changes.

B. BACKGROUND

2. The Project was approved by the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank on May 30, 2013. It was declared effective on February 28, 2014, with a closing date of February 28, 2019. The Project is co-financed by the IDA, EIB and Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) for a total amount of US$246 million equivalent. The Project financing from IDA is in the amount of SDR 70.1 million (US$105 million equivalent1), with US$101 million equivalent from EIB 2) and US$40 million equivalent from ZESCO Limited (ZESCO).

Table 1: Project Cost and Sources of Financing (in US$ '000)

Component Project Cost IDA EIB BorrowerComponent 1. Transmission network rehabilitation 106,000 95,000 0 11,000Component 2. Distribution network rehabilitation 130,000 0 101,000 29,000Component 3. Project Management and TA 10,000 10,000 0 0Total 246,000 105,000 101,000 40,000

3. The original PDO is to increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission and distribution system in the Lusaka area.

4. The Project has three (3) components, namely: Component 1 (Rehabilitation of the 132 kV and 88 kV Transmission Network in the Lusaka Area); Component 2 (Rehabilitation of the 33 kV and 11 kV Distribution Network in the Lusaka Area); and Component 3 (Technical Assistance and Project Management). Components 1 and 3 are financed by the International Development Association (IDA) whereas Component 2 is financed, in parallel, by the EIB.

5. The Project aims to reinforce and upgrade the electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure in the Lusaka and surrounding areas, and improve reliability of electricity supplies for consumers. The increased transmission capacity that the

1 Based on SDR/US$ exchange rate at appraisal.2 At Board approval, the plan for EIB’s co-financing was US$65 million. Following a comprehensive planning review of the Lusaka network, the scope of the EIB component was expanded and the amount of co-financing increased to US$101 million.


3

Project shall provide will also facilitate the connection of new consumers. In recent years, Lusaka has registered strong demand growth. At preparation, demand including suppressed load was estimated at 469 Mega Volt Ampere (MVA) (2011) and projected to rise to 1,014 MVA in 2031 in the most likely load forecast scenario. During the period 2013 to 2017, unsuppressed3 demand peaked at 674 MVA in 2015. Although maximum demand in the subsequent two years has been lower than the 2015 outturn, due to the impact of the 2015/2016 power crisis, the overall trend is expected to be in line with the appraisal load forecast.

6. At preparation, the Project was aligned with the Government’s Sixth National Development Plan (2011 – 2015). Government’s strategic focus for the energy sector was “adequate and reliable supply of energy through the development of appropriate infrastructure to support the growth sectors of the economy”, especially agriculture and manufacturing. It was also recognized that there was a direct relationship between energy and poverty, and that increasing access to electricity would contribute to poverty alleviation. In 2017, Government promulgated the Seventh National Development Plan (2017 – 2021). Among the intended development outcomes of this plan is “Improved Energy Production and Distribution for Sustainable Development” and one of the strategies to achieve this, is expanding and improving electricity generation, transmission and distribution which aligns with the Project.

C. PROJECT STATUS

Overall

7. Progress towards achieving the PDO has been slow. This is in part due to the comprehensive planning review of the Lusaka transmission and distribution network that was carried out to determine the detailed scope of the Project after effectiveness. This work had not been carried out prior to effectiveness due to funding constraints at the implementing agency, ZESCO. The Project has also faced procurement related delays on two fronts. First, it took some time for the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) to become fully acquainted with procurement practices under World Bank and EIB financed projects. Second, the revision and consolidation of the supply and install procurement packages under Component 1 of the Project led to increased size and complexity that resulted in a longer than anticipated time to complete procurement. Additional delays have been caused by unexpected geotechnical conditions at the Project sites.

8. Since 2017, however, implementation of the Project has improved. A change in management at the PIU and the addition of a field based procurement and contract management specialist at the Project supervision consultant (Owner’s Engineer) has contributed to the improved implementation progress.

9. Overall disbursements under the World Bank financed Components 1 and 3 of the Project are approximately 37 percent (US$37 million). Most of the disbursements have occurred in the latter part of fiscal year (FY) 2017 and in FY 2018, reflecting the improved implementation progress. Procurement of all the major supply and installation contracts has been completed with ZESCO entering into contracts for a total of approximately US$85 million. Disbursements under the EIB financed Component 2 are much lower, however, standing at around 2 percent (US$2.3 million).

Status by Component

10. Component 1: Rehabilitation of the 132 kV and 88 kV Transmission Network in Lusaka Area (US$106 million equivalent). Following revision of the Procurement Plan, this component has three procurement packages that comprise a total of five (5) lots/contracts. As at March 2018, ZESCO had completed procurement of all three packages, namely:

3 Up to 14 percent of demand is unserved at peak due to insufficient network capacity in the Lusaka area.


4

a. Water Works Substation and Switching Stations. This was the first supply and installation contract entered into by ZESCO under the Project. Initially, this was part of a package that included a Lot financed by the EIB. This led to a lengthy procurement process since prior review clearances were sought from both the World Bank and the EIB. Eventually, ZESCO cancelled procurement for the EIB financed Lot while that financed by the World Bank progressed and was completed. Subsequently, the contract for the IDA-financed Lot was signed in September 2016 and the contract became effective in October 2016. Upon commencement of site preparation and foundation works, the contractor encountered rocky outcrops that had not been expected and resolving this delayed contract implementation. A further major delay occurred when a 90 MVA transformer under the contract failed Factory Acceptance Test (FAT) leading to ZESCO requesting for its re-manufacture. Consequently, completion of this contract that had initially been scheduled for April 2018 is now expected in October 2018.

b. 132 kV Overhead Lines and 132 kV Substations. This package comprises two lots. Lot 1 is for the construction of the Lusaka South Multi-Facility Economic Zone – Waterworks, Leopards Hill – Roma, Lusaka West – Industrial, and the Industrial – Coventry 132 kV transmission lines. The contract for this Lot was signed in November 2017 and is on schedule to be completed in the third quarter of calendar year (CY) 2020.

Lot 2 is for the construction of the Roma 132/33/11 kV, Leopards Hill 330/132/88kV, Lusaka West 330/132/33kV and Industrial 132/33/11 kV Substations. The contract was signed in June 2017 and is on schedule to be completed in the third quarter of CY 2020.

c. The last package under this component is the Roma – Lusaka West 132 kV Overhead Transmission Line and Avondale 132/33/11 kV Substation and Switching Stations. There are two lots under this package: Roma – Lusaka West 132 kV Overhead Line; and Avondale 132/33/11 kV Substation and Switching Stations. The contracts for this package were signed in April 2018 and are expected to be completed by end CY 2019.

11. Component 2: Rehabilitation of the 33 kV and 11 kV Distribution Network in Lusaka Area (US$130 million equivalent). Procurement on this component has been completed for four contracts namely: 33 kV Kafue Road – Birdcage – Waterworks Underground Cable, Chilanga 132/33/11 kV Sub/Switching Stations, Chawama 132/11 kV Sub/Switching Stations and the LS-MFEZ – Chawama, and Chawama – Chilanga 132 kV lines. Of the four contracts, only that for the 33 kV cable is under implementation with effectiveness for the others yet to be achieved. Finalization of the bidding documents for the remaining procurement packages under this Component, comprising six contracts, is underway. At the current rate of implementation, it is unlikely that this component can be completed before June 2021.

12. Component 3: Technical Assistance and Project Management (US$10 million equivalent). This component comprises four sub-components:

a. Consultancy Contract (Owner’s Engineer). The contract consists of two phases, namely: engineering design and procurement support to the PIU; and supervision of contractors. As of May 2018, the Owner’s Engineer was engaged in providing support to ZESCO under both phases. The Owner’s Engineer had also carried out the additional work relating to the comprehensive planning review at Project inception.

b. PIU Training and ZESCO Capacity Building. As of May 2018, a total of 219 ZESCO staff, exceeding the target of 175, that included 17 from the PIU, had been trained in areas that included: Project Management; Procurement; Safeguards; Substation and Transmission/Distribution Line Construction & Design; Financial Management (FM); and Power System studies among others.


5

c. Identification and preparation of energy policies and regulations. As of May 2018, no activities had been carried under this sub-component.

d. Project Operating Costs. As of May 2018, proceeds from this sub-component had gone towards the purchase of Project motor vehicles, office furniture and meeting the operational expenses of the PIU.

Environmental and Social Safeguards

13. The safeguards categorization of the ongoing Project is Category B, and the proposed changes will not change this classification nor trigger any new safeguards policies (See Table 2). Consequently, the Project’s Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF), Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), and Grievance Redress Mechanisms (GRM) that have already been developed shall remain applicable.

14. In September and October 2017 GRMs were established for the Project with grievance registers located at two project sites to record and resolve community issues. The World Bank will continue to support ZESCO with the GRMs as physical works activities ramp-up. This will focus on monitoring and evaluation including the development of centralized electronic record keeping.

15. The overall safeguards rating of the Project is Moderately Satisfactory. To bolster implementation of the safeguards instruments, the PIU, in August 2017, recruited an Environmental Specialist and a Social Affairs Specialist on a full-time basis. This is in addition to ZESCO’s well-staffed corporate Environmental and Social Affairs Unit (ESU) which will continue to provide safeguards support to the Project.

16. The environmental safeguards performance rating was upgraded to Satisfactory from Moderately Satisfactory in March 2018, based on improved management. Although social safeguards management has registered some improvement, the performance rating remains at Moderately Satisfactory. Overall, safeguards reporting has been satisfactory.

17. The potential for adverse social impacts however remains high. The remainder of the works activities will take place in areas in and around Lusaka that are more populated and built-up compared to those with works already underway. The RPF for the Project estimates a total of 1,500 PAPs. To-date, a total of 303 PAPs have been identified and compensated in the amount of US$5.5 million equivalent as part of ZESCO’s counterpart funding to the Project. Affected persons have been impacted through physical relocation or restricted land use.

Table 2: Safeguard Policies Triggered under the ProjectYes No

Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 XNatural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 XForests OP/BP 4.36 XPest Management OP 4.09 XPhysical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 XIndigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 XInvoluntary Settlement OP/BP 4.12 XSafety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 XProjects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 XProjects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X


6

Financial Management

18. The adequacy of the FM arrangements has been assessed as Moderately Satisfactory and the FM Risk Rating of the Project as Moderate. The Project is up to date with its Interim Financial Report (IFR) reporting obligations and the external audits of its financial statements have been unqualified.

D. RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

19. The proposed 24 months extension of the Project closing date from February 28, 2019 to February 19, 2021 will provide sufficient time to the implementing agency, ZESCO to supply and install contracts that have already been awarded under the IDA-financed Component 1 to be completed, and by this ZESCO will avoid incurring unplanned financial exposure, which would be the case if the IDA financing were to close before completion of the signed contracts.

20. While the Project has registered overall improvement in implementation progress since 2017, works under EIB-financed Component 2 have not advanced as much as the two IDA financed components. While procurement of the major supply and installation contracts under Component 1 has been concluded, this is not the case for Component 2. Presently, Component 2 cannot be completed within the timeframe of the proposed 24 months extension and will likely take substantially more time to complete. It is therefore proposed that Component 2, that is focused on the rehabilitation of the electricity distribution network in the Lusaka area, be dropped from the scope of the Project. Due to dropping of Component 2, it is also proposed that the PDO and the results indicators are revised to reflect this change (see Annex 1). The activities under Component 2 will however continue to be implemented as a standalone project financed by EIB. The EIB has agreed to this proposal.

21. The proposed restructuring shall also ensure that the World Bank continues to provide implementation support through completion of the IDA-financed activities that have already been contracted. Once the physical works have been completed, the Project funded substations and transmission lines will need to be energized, tested and monitored to ensure achievement of the PDO. The proposed extension of the Project closing date will allow for this work to be completed.

22. It is also proposed to reallocate funds from Component 1 to Component 3, which will ensure that there is adequate project management and supervision support, and enable extension of the project supervision consultant (Owner’s Engineer) contract through to the proposed Project closing date. The reallocation of funds will also support the GRZ, under Sub-component 3 (c) Identification and Preparation of Energy Policies and Regulations, in the implementation of the plans being developed to reform the power sector.

23. The proposed restructuring leaves a project that continues to be positive in terms of its economic benefits. The primary economic benefit is due to the reduction in unserved demand. The updated economic analysis (Annex 2) shows an Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of the “with Project” scenario of 37.6 percent with a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$1,301 million, using US cents 14 per kWh4 as the average Willingness to Pay (WTP) for electricity in Zambia and a discount rate of 3.3 percent5. The analysis has been undertaken over a period of thirty years.

24. ZESCO revenues will also continue to benefit from the restructured Project due to the reduction in unserved demand in the Lusaka area during peak periods, and reduced transmission losses. Despite this, it should be noted that the overall financial situation of ZESCO has deteriorated since 2015 due to a rapid increase in power purchase costs, higher debt service, and high labor costs. The restructured Project’s positive impact on the overall financial position of the utility will be marginal.

4 This WTP for customers is based on expenditures on non-electric forms of lighting such as kerosene and candles as well as on battery-powered appliances. 5 Since Zambia has grown at an average rate of 1.65 percent over the last five years (2012-2016), a 3.3 percent discount rate is used in this analysis.


7

25. GRZ has committed to returning the power sector to a path towards financial sustainability and part of the proposed reallocation of financing from Component 1 to Component 3 is intended to support power sector reform plans in this respect. It is expected that the reform plans also include aspects related to the tariff regime which will have a direct influence on the financial return of the restructured Project.

II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES

26. The proposed changes under this restructuring are: (i) Extending the closing date of the Project by 24 months from February 28, 2019 to February 19, 2021; (ii) Dropping the EIB-financed Component 2 from the Project; (iii) Cancellation of credit proceeds in the amount of US$4 million from Component 1; (iv) Reallocating SDR 4.3 million (US$6.0 million equivalent) from Component 1 to Component 3 to increase the allocation for Component 3; (v) Changing the PDO due to the dropping of Component 2; and (vi) Adjusting the results indicators and targets, to reflect the proposed changes.

27. It is proposed that Component 2, Rehabilitation of the 33 kV and 11 kV Distribution Network in Lusaka Area, be dropped. This component is fully financed by EIB and cannot be completed within the proposed 24-month extension. The activities related to Component 2 shall, however, continue to be implemented under EIB financing separate from the World Bank - financed Project. The current arrangement whereby under Component 3 of the Project, the World Bank finances project supervision that also covers EIB financed activities, shall continue. To this effect, a joint World Bank and EIB implementation support plan shall be agreed upon to cover supervision of the EIB financed activities until the restructured World Bank financed Project closes following the proposed extension, in February 2021. This will also allow ZESCO and EIB sufficient time to put in place adequate supervision arrangements for once the World Bank – financed Project closes through to the completion of the EIB financed activities.

28. The safeguards instruments i.e. ESIA, ESMP, RAP, RPF and Environmental Project Briefs shall remain in effect through to the completion of the EIB-financed activities. In line with good practice, ZESCO will be expected to inform the Zambia Environmental Management Authority (ZEMA) of the restructuring of the Project and that this shall result in a change to the project supervision financing arrangements once the restructured Project closes. The World Bank will also continue to support ZESCO in the overall strengthening of safeguards capacity. This will contribute towards ensuring that the implementation of safeguards instruments continues at the expected level once the World Bank’s financing closes.

29. A total of approximately US$10 million in savings on Component 1 has been generated due to the revised procurement packaging and closer implementation support from the World Bank. It is proposed that US$6 million of these savings be reallocated from Component 1 to Component 3 and US$4 million cancelled. This will allow for the additional project supervision up to the revised Project closing date. In addition, the proposed reallocation will support GRZ with plans to reform the power sector aimed at improving efficiency, increasing competition and positioning the sector on a path to financial sustainability. The proposed reallocation of funds is shown in Table 3 and requires the introduction of an additional Category (Category 3) as reflected in Table 4.

Table 3: Proposed Re-allocation of Funds (US$ ‘000)

Component Total Cost IDA6 EIB BorrowerCurrent Proposed Current Proposed Cancelled Current Proposed Current Proposed

6 For SDR amounts, please refer to Table 4.


8

Component 1. Rehabilitation of Transmission Network in Lusaka Area

106,000 95,000 95,000 80,000 4,000 0 0 11,000 11,000

Component 2. Rehabilitation of Distribution Network in Lusaka Area 7

130,000 0 0 N/A 101,000 N/A 29,000 N/A

Component 3. Technical Assistance and Project Management

10,000 16,000 10,000 16,000 0 0 0 0

Totals 246,000 111,000 105,000 96,0008 101,000 0 40,000 11,000

7 Dropped Component (Marked for deletion)8 Reflecting cancelled amount of US$4 million and SDR/US$ exchange loss of approx. US$5 million since appraisal.


9

Table 4: Eligible Expenditures and Categories (SDR)

Category Amount of the Financing Allocated(Current)

Amount of the Financing Allocated

(Proposed)

Percentage of Expenditures to

be financed(inclusive of

Taxes)(1) Goods, works, non-consulting services, and

consultants’ services under Part A of the Project

63,400,000 56,299,664 90%

(2) Goods, vehicles, non-consulting services, consultants’ services, Training and Operating costs under Part C of the Project.

6,700,000 4,300,000 100%

(3) Goods, vehicles, non-consulting services, consultants’ services, Training and Operating costs under Part B of the Project.

N/A 6,700,000 100%

Amount cancelled (2,800,336)TOTAL 70,100,000 67,299,664

30. The Government request dated May 2, 2018 was asking for a 20-month extension of the Project closing date. To allow for possible slippages in the schedule due to unforeseen events, and provide a period of testing and analyzing operational performance to determine achievement of the PDO, a 24-month extension to the Project closing date, to February 19, 2021 is instead proposed.

31. Component 2 is focused on the rehabilitation of the distribution network in the Lusaka area. Due to the dropping of this component, it is proposed that the PDO is revised from “To increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission and distribution system in the Lusaka area” to “To increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission system in the Lusaka area”.

32. In addition to the revision of the PDO, the results indicators are proposed to be amended due to the impact of dropping Component 2. At PDO level, the indicator “System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) per year in the project target areas in Lusaka Division” is proposed to be dropped and a new indicator “Unserved load on the Lusaka transmission network” 9 introduced to measure the reliability aspect of the PDO. The project beneficiaries (electricity consumers in the Lusaka area) remains the same, since all electricity supplies first go through the transmission network and thereafter the distribution network that serves as the primary interface with end consumers. The intermediate indicators associated with Component 2 are proposed to be dropped. In addition, the end target date of the indicators will be revised to match to the newly established closing date. The revised results indicators are shown in Annex 1.

9 The daily peak load shed, averaged over a month, as a percentage of the monthly peak load on the Lusaka transmission network.


10

III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES

Changed Not Changed

Change in Project's Development Objectives ✔

Change in Results Framework ✔

Change in Components and Cost ✔

Change in Loan Closing Date(s) ✔

Cancellations Proposed ✔

Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔

Change in Disbursement Estimates ✔

Change in Implementation Schedule ✔

Change in Economic and Financial Analysis ✔

Change in Implementing Agency ✔

Change in DDO Status ✔

Change in Disbursements Arrangements ✔

Change in Overall Risk Rating ✔

Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔

Change of EA category ✔

Change in Legal Covenants ✔

Change in Institutional Arrangements ✔

Change in Financial Management ✔

Change in Procurement ✔

Other Change(s) ✔

Change in Technical Analysis ✔

Change in Social Analysis ✔

Change in Environmental Analysis ✔


11

IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S)

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_PDO_TABLE

PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE

Current PDOThe objectives of this project are to increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission and distribution system in the Lusaka area.

Proposed New PDOThe objectives of the Project are to increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission system in the Lusaka area.

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE

RESULTS FRAMEWORK

Project Development Objective Indicators PDO_IND_TABLE

Transmission capacity along the Lusaka transmission ringUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom

Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action

Value 450 MVA 450MVA 900 MVA Revised

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Unserved load on the Lusaka transmission networkUnit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom


Value 14.00 14.00 0.00 New

Date 15-May-2018 15-May-2018 19-Feb-2021

Average interruption frequency per year in the project areaUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 12.00 12.00 6.00 Marked for Deletion

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 28-Feb-2019

Customers served in the project areaUnit of Measure: Number


12

Indicator Type: Custom Supplement



Average interruption frequency per year (SAIFI) in the project targets areas in Lusaka DivisionUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 28-Feb-2019

Direct project beneficiariesUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 1200000.00 Revised

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Female beneficiariesUnit of Measure: PercentageIndicator Type: Custom Supplement


Value 0.00 0.00 51.00 No Change

Intermediate IndicatorsIO_IND_TABLE

Transmission line segment upgraded in Leopards Hill -RomaUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 0.00 25.00 Revised


13

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission line segment upgraded in Roma -Lusaka WestUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom



Date 08-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission line segment upgraded in Lusaka West - CoventryUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission line segment upgraded in Waterworks - Lusaka South MFEZUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission lines constructed or rehabilitated under the projectUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission lines rehabilitated under the projectUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown




14

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Transmission lines constructed under the projectUnit of Measure: KilometersIndicator Type: Custom Breakdown



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Substation capacity upgraded in WaterworksUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom


Value 115 MVA 115MVA 270 MVA Revised

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

New Switching stations installed in Lusaka areaUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom



Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Substation capacity upgraded in Lusaka areaUnit of Measure: TextIndicator Type: Custom


Value 85.0 MVA 180 MVA Marked for Deletion

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 28-Feb-2019

Number of ZESCO Staff TrainedUnit of Measure: NumberIndicator Type: Custom


Value 0.00 220.00 50.00 Revised


15

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

Studies completed for preparation of new infrastructure energy projectsUnit of Measure: Yes/NoIndicator Type: Custom


Value No No Yes Revised

Date 01-Apr-2013 30-Mar-2018 19-Feb-2021

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE

COMPONENTS

Current Component Name

Current Cost

(US$M)Action Proposed

Component NameProposed

Cost (US$M)

Component 1: Rehabilitation of 132kV and 88kV Transmission Network in Lusaka Area

106.00 RevisedComponent 1: Rehabilitation of 132kV and 88kV Transmission Network in Lusaka Area

80.00

Component 2: Rehabilitation of 33kV and 11kV Distribution Network in Lusaka Area

94.00 Marked for Deletion

Component 2: Rehabilitation of 33kV and 11kV Distribution Network in Lusaka Area

94.00

Component 3: Technical Assistance and Project Management

10.00 RevisedComponent 3: Technical Assistance and Project Management

16.00

TOTAL 210.00 190.00

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE

LOAN CLOSING DATE(S)

Ln/Cr/Tf StatusOriginal Closing

Revised Closing(s)

Proposed Closing

Proposed Deadline for Withdrawal

Applications

IDA-52600 Effective 28-Feb-2019 19-Feb-2021 19-Jun-2021

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_CANCELLATIONS_TABLE


16

CANCELLATIONS

Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Current Amount

Cancellation Amount

Value Date of

Cancellation

New Amount

Reason for

Cancellation

IDA-52600-001

Disbursing XDR 70,100,000.00 2,800,336.00 07-May-2018 67,299,664.00

LOAN RESTRUCTUR

ING, COST SAVINGS

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE

REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES

Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation Financing %(Type Total)

Current Proposed

IDA-52600-001 | Currency: XDR

iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: GDS,WKS,NON CS, CS PT A

63,400,000.00 16,086,002.66 56,299,664.00 90.00 90.00

iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: GDS,VEH,CS, NON CS,TRG,OC PT C

6,700,000.00 4,260,420.46 4,300,000.00 100.00 100.00

iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: GDS,VEH,CS, NON CS,TRG,OC PT B

0.00 0.00 6,700,000.00 100

Total 70,100,000.00 20,346,423.12 67,299,664.00

OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE

DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES

Change in Disbursement EstimatesYes

Year Current Proposed

2014 3,000,000.00 10,300,000.00

2015 7,000,000.00 840,000.00


17

2016 15,000,000.00 2,700,000.00

2017 30,000,000.00 12,700,000.00

2018 35,000,000.00 27,460,000.00

2019 15,000,000.00 33,000,000.00

2020 0.00 7,000,000.00

2021 0.00 2,000,000.00


18

Annex 1: Revised Results Framework

Current Proposed

Indicators Baseline Project Closing Baseline Project Closing

PDO Indicators (Current) To increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission and distribution system in the Lusaka area.

PDO Indicators (Proposed) To increase the capacity and improve the reliability of the electricity transmission system in the Lusaka area

Indicator 1: Transmission capacity along the Lusaka transmission ring (MVA)

450 900 450 900

Indicator 2: Average interruption frequency per year (SAIFI) in the project target areas in Lusaka Division (Number)

12 6 DROP DROP

Indicator 2: Unserved load on the Lusaka Transmission network (%)10

NEW NEW 14 0

Indicator 3: Direct project beneficiaries (number), of which female (percentage)

0

N/A

1,200,000

51%

0

N/A

1,200,000

51%

INTERMEDIATE RESULTS

Intermediate Indicators (Component 1) Rehabilitation of the 132kV and 88kV Transmission Network in the Lusaka Area

Transmission line segment upgraded in Leopards Hill - Roma – km

0 25 0 25

Transmission line segment upgraded in Roma -Lusaka West – km

0 20 0 20

Transmission line segment upgraded in Lusaka West – Coventry - km

0 10 0 10

Transmission line segment upgraded in Waterworks – LS-MFEZ -km

0 20 0 20

0 75 0 75Transmission lines rehabilitated / constructed under the project

0 5 0 5

Substation capacity upgraded in Waterworks substation -MVA 115 270 115 270

Intermediate Indicators (Component 2)DROP

Rehabilitation of the 33kV and 11kV Distribution Network in the Lusaka Area

New Switching Stations installed in Lusaka-Numbers 0 6 DROP DROP

Substation capacity upgraded in Lusaka Area – MVA 85 180 DROP DROP

Intermediate Indicators (Component 3) Technical Assistance and Project Supervision

Number of ZESCO staff trained-Numbers 0 50 0 50

Studies completed for new infrastructure energy projects – Yes / No

No Yes No Yes

10 Definition: The daily peak load shed, averaged over a month, as a percentage of the monthly peak load on the Lusaka transmission network.


19

Annex 2: Updated Economic Cost Benefit Analysis (Sample Data Set)

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

LUSAKA TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION REHABILITATION PROJECT (P133184)

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Indicator 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

AssumptionDiscount Rate % 3.30%Demand Growth % 3.0%Unserved Demand (Base) % 14.0%Load Factor % 70.0%WTP Usc/Kwh 14.00Remaining Investment Amount (as of June 2018) US$ mn 58.02Investment Schedule2018 % 35%2019 % 50%2020 % 10%2021 % 5%

Unserved EnergyWith ProjectPeak Demand MW 466 480 494 509 524 540 556 573 590 608Unserved Demand % 14.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Annual Unserved Load MWh 412,053 303,153 312,248 - - - - - -Without ProjectPeak Demand MW 480 494 509 524 540 556 573 590 608Unserved Demand % 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0%Annual Unserved Load MWh 412,053 424,415 437,147 450,262 463,770 477,683 492,013 506,773 521,977DifferenceDifference in unserved load MWh - 121,261 124,899 450,262 463,770 477,683 492,013 506,773 521,977

Cost-Benefit AnalysisProject Benefit US$ mn 2,080.2 - 17.0 17.5 63.0 64.9 66.9 68.9 70.9 73.1Project Cost US$ mn 95.0 10.3 0.8 2.7 12.7 30.7 29.0 5.8 2.9Net Benefit US$ mn 1,985.2 (10.3) (0.8) (2.7) (12.7) (30.7) (12.0) 11.7 60.1 64.9 66.9 68.9 70.9 73.1

EIRR 37.60%NPV 1,030

world bank...

Documents