workshop on cap reform impact analysis, bruxelles 6.11.2003 1 capri farm type models for capri...

Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 2

CAPRI CAPRIOutline

• Why farm type models ?

• FADN as data source

• Integration in the data base

• Integration in the modeling system

• Exploitation

• Unresolved issues


CAPRI CAPRIWhy farm type models

Farm specialization matters:

• regarding environmental impacts

(stocking densities etc.)

• regarding policy impacts

(farm specific ceilings)

• regarding model behavior

<=> linkages between activities,

especially fodder crops and animals


CAPRI CAPRIFADN as data source

Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN):

• single farm records covering revenues and costs,

production program and certain yields, premiums

• but no input allocation

• not always clear link to administrative NUTS regions

(instead own “FADN” regions)

• differences in activity/product breakdown

compared to CAPRI

• restricted access due to confidentiality issues


CAPRI CAPRIIntegration in the data base

Four Step Procedure:

(1) Selection from FADN records

(2) Perfect aggregation of single farms to NUTS II

(3) Aggregation from single farm to farm types

(4) Integration in CAPRI data base


CAPRI CAPRIIntegration of FADN, Step 1

FADNrecords

FADNCAPRIrecords

Mapping toCAPRI

product list

• select/aggregate/distribute FADN items

according to CAPRI product list

Per farm in sample:• Activity levels• Production• Aggregation weights• Farm classification



FADNCAPRIrecords

CAPRIdatabase

Consistency(Levels, Output)

• ensure perfect aggregation from individual FADN records

to NUTS II data in CAPRI data base



• Ensure perfect aggregation by simultaneous determination

of optimal correction factors of single farm records for :

• activity levels (ha, herd sizes)

• yields

• aggregation weights

• aggregation weights are distributed over regions

(a single farm in one region may be “typical” for farms

in other regions as well) => more observations for specific

types => no problems with confidentiality limit

• Technically: entropy penalty function



FADNrecords

CAPRIdatabase


Assignmentto NUTS

6 Typesper

region

• select the five most frequent types per region

• aggregate remaining farms into “residual type”



How are types selected ?

• Three-digit classification of economic specialization

(e.g. 202 Specialist flowers and ornamentals)

• Sum up aggregation weights per type and region

=> represent number of farms

• Select five most frequent ones

=> selection by number of agents, not necessarily by

economic/environmental impact

• all remaining farms aggregated into “residual group”


CAPRI CAPRIIntegration FADN in the data base

CoCo REGIO

CAPREG6 Types

perregion

FADNrecords

CAPRIdatabase


Assignmentto NUTS


CAPRI CAPRIIntegration in the modeling system

• Each farm type is treated like a “NUTS III” region

• No change in the structure of the supply models

• Consequently, now about 1050 regional aggregate models

on the supply side

• aggregation to NUTS II/Member State/EU

for premium and market modules


CAPRI CAPRIExploitation

CAPRIRegionalised

Data Base

CAPRIModellingSystem

Farm types

AggregationNUTS II

AggregationMS,EU

CAPRIResult

Data Base

Mappingtool

HTMLtables

DAOUT

EXCELetc.


CAPRI CAPRIUnresolved Issues

• Continuous access to FADN data

• Farm specific constraints ?

• Farm specific policy ceilings

e.g. stocking density restrictions

• tremendous increase in memory allocation

and solution time of complete modelling system

workshop on cap reform impact analysis, bruxelles 6.11.2003 1 capri farm type models for capri...

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