Working Draft

Bonn, Germany

November 2007

The Challenge of Achieving World Class Performance:

Education in the 21st Century

Michael Barber

Three themes

1.The state of education

2.The characteristics of high performing systems

3.Sequencing reform

Theme 1: The state of education

The state of education: quality

•Access doesn’t guarantee achievement

98 100 100

65 69

56

30 34 35

Brazil Indonesia Mexico

Attended school

Still in school age 15

Basic numeracy* age 15% of cohort

* Level 1 or above on PISA mathematics

Source:OECD, PISA

The state of education: quality

• Increased funding alone is not the answer

Source: National Centre for Education Statistics, NEAP, Hanushek (1998), McKinsey

Linear Index

0

10

20

30

40

70

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Literacy (17 years)

Literacy (13 years)

Literacy (9 years)

Spend per student ($2004)

Student-to-teacher ratio

50

60

Theme 2: The characteristics ofhigh performing systems

Teachers make an extraordinary difference

*Among the top 20% of teachers; **Among the bottom 20% of teachersAnalysis of test data from Tennessee showed that teacher quality effected student performance more than any other variable; on average, two students with average performance (50th percentile) would diverge by more than 50 percentile points over a three year period depending on the teacher they were assignedSource: Sanders & Rivers Cumulative and Residual Effects on Future Student Academic Achievement, McKinsey

50th percentile

0th percentile

100th percentile

Student performance

Age 8 Age 11

90th percentile

Student with high-performing* teacher

53 percentile points

37th percentile

Student with low performing** teacher

“The quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers.”

“The only way to improve outcomes is to improve instruction.”

“High performance requires every child to succeed.”

Eight ingredients of great systems

Select great people for teaching

Train them well at the

outsetConstantly strengthen

their classroom practice

Select great leaders and

develop them well

PEOPLEPEOPLE

Setworld-class standardsTackle

failurequickly

Fund equitably

and consistently

Provide universal

pre-school

POLICYPOLICY

Theme 3: A model of reform

A model of reform

A government’s approach to reform needs to change as the system improves

GREAT

Committing

GOOD

Staying

Grumbling

ADEQUATE

Exiting

AWFUL

Choosing between the options

CIRCUM-STANCES

KEY ADVICE

Command and Control

• Where a service is awful• For very high priorities

which are urgent• In emergencies• To drive programmes

designed to tackle poverty (e.g., Surestart)

• Do it excellently

Devolution and Transparency

• Where individual choice is not appropriate (e.g., policing or criminal justice)

• To get from adequate to good or good to great

• Combines well with contestability (e.g., prisons)

• Transparency is crucial

Quasi-markets

• Where individuals can choose (e.g., schools, hospitals)

• Where a range of providers can be developed

• Where diversity is desirable

• Equity needs to be built in

Combination

• During transitions• Where variation of

performance within a service is wide

• Where market pressures are weak

• Needs sophisticated strategic direction

The required cultural shift

• Hit & miss

• Uniformity

• Provision

• Producers

• Inputs

• Generalisation

• Talk equity

• “Received wisdom”

• Regulation

• Haphazard development

• Demarcation

• Look up

• Universal high standards

• Diversity

• Choice

• Customers/citizens

• Outcomes

• Specificity

• Deliver equity

• Data and best practice

• Incentives

• Continuous development

• Flexibility

• Look outwards

Comfortable Demanding