woodfuel resource
TRANSCRIPT
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Woodfuel resource and the UK
market
Bruno Prior
Managing DirectorForever Fuels Ltd
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Scientific confidence?
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Energy policy scientistic certainty?Politicians, civil servants and their advisers know:
Future heat/electricity/transport demand & price
Contribution of each:
fuel-type (gas, oil, coal, renewables, etc) to each use
technology to the renewable share of each use
size-band within each technology to the renewable shareof each use
How these components will develop to 2020 and2050, inc. technical and economic developments
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Woodfuel resource uncertainty Supply
Demand
Price
Uses
Impacts
Alternatives
Policy
Nature
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Woodfuel supply/demand (UK)
GWh 2005 2010 2020
Electricity (output) 4,347 5,500 20,590Electricity (input) 13,584 17,188 64,344
Heating & Cooling (output) 5,385 3,547 42,008
Heating & Cooling (input) 6,335 4,172 49,421
Combined (output) 9,732 9,047 62,598
Combined (input) 19,919 21,360 113,765
Projected demand for solid biomass (UK nREAP):
Projected supply of biomass from forests (UK nREAP):
2006: 6,769 GWh 2015: 12,316 GWh 2020: 17,840 GWh
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Woodfuel supply/demand (EU)
GWh 2005 2010 2020
Electricity (output) 57,950 101,069 202,500Electricity (input) 181,094 315,841 632,813
Heating & Cooling (output) 555,682 629,171 915,083
Heating & Cooling (input) 654,920 740,210 1,076,568
Combined (output) 613,632 730,240 1,117,583
Combined (input) 836,014 1,056,051 1,709,381
Projected demand for solid biomass (EU nREAPs):
Projected supply of biomass from forests, inc. imports (EU nREAPs):
2006: 689,182 GWh 2015: 675,191 GWh 2020: 734,155 GWh
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Woodfuel supply (non-EU)Forest area (km2) Forest % of land
Russia 8,087,900 49%
Brazil 4,776,980 56%
Canada 3,101,340 34%
USA 3,030,890 33%
China 1,972,900 21%
Australia 1,636,780 21%
Sweden 275,280 67%
Germany 110,760 32%
UK 28,450 12%
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Price
Not static:
Cost of engaging marginal supply
vs
Economies of scale
(Learning curves? Cherry-picking?)
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Uses Energy uses
CHPbetter than
Heatbetter than
Electricity,but
Local heat use?
Reliable demand?
Conversion efficiencies
Types of woodfuel (e.g. bark, recovered wood)
Non-energy uses
Board, pulp, leisure, etc.
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Impacts Air quality (technology, location, scale,
background)
Land-use (direct/indirect, positive/negative)
Carbon footprint (production, transport,
conversion efficiency) Energy security
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Alternatives Biomass supply (EU nREAPs):
Other renewables
Other fuels
GWh UK EU
2006 2015 2020 2006 2015 2020
Forestry 6,769 12,316 17,840 689,182 675,191 734,155
Agriculture 1,768 19,213 68,896 180,195 313,591 435,939
Waste 25,539 78,351 111,253 94,761 131,314 180,021
Total 34,076 109,881 197,989 964,139 1,120,109 1,350,115
Projected solid biomass demand
in 2020: UK: 113,765 GWh,
EU: 1,709,381 GWh
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Policy Policy competition (targets vs inelastic supply)
Budget constraints (targets vs bankruptcy) Public perception (targets vs vote-buying)
Export promotion (Canada, Brazil)
Export prohibition (Russia) Response to changing scientific advice
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Nature Disease/parasite (mountain pine beetle, phytophthora)
Fire
Drought
Storm-blow
Reduced ice cover (shipping routes)
Changing growth rates (CO2, temperature, land fertility) Earthquake/tsunami (Japanese biomass demand?)
Population change (and changing expectations)
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Dealing with uncertainty Demand > or < Supply?
Central plans: ignorant, out-of-date, inflexible,public-choice
Internalise externality and let market allocate
Allows people close to each opportunity todetermine best option for the circumstances
Discovery through competition
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Changing planners incentives Politicians = short-term vote buyers
Civil servants = unaccountable empire builders Advisers = inexperienced and irresponsible
rent-seekers (heads I win, tails you lose)
If central planners faced real consequences
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Woodfuel resource and the UK marketBruno Prior, Managing Director, Forever Fuels Ltd
European Bioenergy Conference & Exhibition, 2011, Stoneleigh Park
225 Blackamoor LaneMaidenhead
Berks. SL6 8RT
www.forever-fuels.com
01628 509690