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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
FEBRUARY9,2010
UX defends its levels
Worldmarketssentimentwasverypoor lastweekUSS&P500lost0.79%
reaching 1066.19points,pan EuropeanDJ Euro Stoxx50 slid down 5.23%,
S&PAsia50dropped2.81%,JapaneseNikkei 1.38%,ShanghaiComposite
1.67%.Russian MICEX also has shown 3.61% decline coming near 1355.64
pointsfollowingworldexchangesandoilprices.
OnthisbasisUkrainian indicesaresurprisingwithresistancetothefall.Last
week UX shown moderate decline by 0.73% forming Doji candle on the
weeklychart(seefigure1),whichusuallysignstheendoftheprevioustrend.
TradingvolumeisaboutUAH178.5mn(14.7%w/w). Theweeklychartalso
showsthegrowthunsupportedbyoscillatorRSI,andindexcan'tturnbackto
the longtermuptrendas it is limitedwith50%correction fromthehighsof
thebeginningof2008.On the intradaychart (chart2)weobserveastrong
localsupportlevelat1628points(October2009high),thepressureissprung
bythelongtermlineR1.Ingeneralmarketpatternhasntchangedaswellas
ourbearishsentiment.
DespiteUkrainianstocks remainundervalued investorsdonthurry tobring
moneyfroalongtermperiod.TheascentofUkrainianmarketisexplainedby
a number of corporate news. Among the latest are conflict settlement
betweenBankForumshareholders(FORM+18.55%).
We consider Forum shares still obtaining upside for growth as parties are
likely to agree but it will become known only on March 4. The potential
additional share issue may follow at face value UAH10 while Yurushev
conceivablysoldhissharesbyUAH1112.
Motor Sich (MSICH +4.42%) remained another market shank after strong
financial results had been published last week (net income exceeded our
estimatesamountingUAH720mn). Investorsdont intendtosellcompanys
sharesexpectingtoreceivedividendsasadditionalbonus.
Alchevsk Iron&Steel (ALMK 4.41%) also has good prospects in February
plant intends to increaseoutputby10%m/m. Ithasalreadyrestartedblast
furnace 4,whichhadbeenstoppedearlierandinthethirdtendayperiod
ofFebruaryblast furnace 3 isexpected tobe restarted. Itevidences that
companyhasenoughrawmaterialsandwhiledemandforUkrainiansteel is
increasingALMKhasgoodopportunitiestogrowitsproduction.Besides,the
supportisprovidedbyVnesheconombankintensiontopurchaseISDspartof
debts.Theexactamountisunknownbutitiscloseto$1bn.
Goodnewsalsoappeared in chemical sector.Nitric fertilizerproducersare
aimed at external markets, where prices hit their records after crisis
downturn (see chart 3). Carbamide is bought with enthusiasm. Russian
producers dont keep pace with saturating it and make agreements with
Ukrainian plants, reported the representative of trading company to
Ukrainianjournalists.Ammoniumnitrateandcarbamidebrings$5080ofnet
incomefrom1tone.
However, this optimism is restrained by the panic on foreign markets
provoked by PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), whose CDS are
continuing togrow forcingworld investorsexiteuroassets. As the result
euroweakeningandUSdollarstrengtheningontheForex.Strongdollardrags
thedecreasingofcommoditiesandpresses theRussianmarket,withwhich
we correlate very tight. The following week we will watch PIIGS and euro
moreattentively.
WorldEquityIndices
Index Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA -1,04 -1,04 -1,58
-0,89 -0,89 -1,60
-0,70 -0,70 -0,99
-2,21
S&P 500 USA
Nasdaq Comp USA
DAX30 Germany 0,93 0,93
FTSE-100 Great Britain 0,62 0,62
NIKKEI-225 Japan
RTS Russia
Poland
Czech Repu
-1,85
-1,05 -1,05 -2,41
-2,54 -2,54 -6,68
-0,44 -0,44 -6,79
-0,14 -0,14 -7,13
-0,22
-0,45 -0,45 -1,18
PFTS Ukraine 0,31 0,31
UX Ukraine
WSE WIG
Prague Stock Ex.
CommoditiesandCurrencies
DTD,% W TD,% M TD,% YT D,%Gold 1,50 1,50 2,84
3,41
1,58 1,98
21,28
BrentCrudeOil 0,98 0,98 17,97
EUR/USD 0,12 0,12
CurrencyExchangeRate
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
16.09.2009 16.10.2009 16.11.2009 16.12.2009 16.01.2010
UAH/100USD
Officialechangerate
Interbank(bid)
Interbank(ask)
UXIndex
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
02.
04.
2009
24.
04.
2009
20.
05.
2009
11.
06.
2009
03.
07.
2009
24.
07.
2009
14.
08.
2009
07.
09.
2009
28.
09.
2009
19.
10.
2009
09.
11.
2009
30.
11.
2009
21.
12.
2009
15.
01.
2010
Volume,mlnUAH
0
225
450
675
900
1125
1350
1575
1800UX
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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
FEBRUARY9,2010
Mostliquidshares
Ticker
Average
Price, WOW,% M TD ,% Y TD ,%
ALMK 0,21 0,72 0,72 52,85
AVDK 11,54
-0,43 -0,43
-0,37 -0,37
-0,14 -0,14
-0,53 -0,53
-0,50 -0,50
9,38
AZST 3,40 0,44 0,44 25,74
BAVL 0,27 7,70
CEEN 10,20 0,99 0,99 7,37
ENMZ 206,90 22,44
FORM 8,55 0,59 0,59 42,50
MSICH 1889,99 14,61
SMASH 69,50 24,78
STI
R 50,75 1,48 1,48 6,17
UNAF 186,00 10,36
USCB 0,37 0,14 0,14 5,08UTLM 0,44
-2,11 -2,11
-1,31 -1,31 -0,20
YASK 3,95 25,80
ZAEN 333,08 1,30
-0,50 -0,50
-0,26 -0,26
TopGainers,Losers,MostActivelyTraded(25.01.10)
MostActivelyTraded,UAHths
1865,4
1768,9
1200,1
2068,1
2226,2AZST
ALMK
ENMZ
UNAF
AVDK
TopGainers,UAHths
10,5%
1,5%
1,0%
0,7%
0,7%
SGOK
STIR
CEEN
HRTR
LTPL
TopLosers,UAHths2,6%
2,9%
3,2%
3,2%
4,8%KVBZ
PGOK
NVTR
MTBD
KRAZ
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Charts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February 9,2010
Chart1.UXIndex,Weekly
Chart2.UXIndex,Daily
WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
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Charts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February 9,2010
ChemicalFertilizerPrices,$/mt
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
08.01.20
09
12.02.20
09
19.03.20
09
23.04
.20
09
04.06
.20
09
09.07
.20
09
13.08
.20
09
17.09
.20
09
22.10.20
09
26.11.20
09
07.01.20
10
Carbamide(FOBBlackSeaSpot) Ammonia(FOBBlackSeaSpot)AmmoniumNitrate(FOBBlackSeaSpot)
Chart3.Chemicalfertilizerpri
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WorldIndicesDynamic
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February9,2010
DevelopedMarketEquities 5Days,% 1Month,% 3Month,% 6Month,% 9Month,% 1Year,%
WorldMarket
Capitalization 4,90
0,40
3,53 6,68 3,30
3,69 7,71 3,32
2,96 8,25 1,16
5,00 11,72 6,73 0,89
3,06 7,99 2,64
3,30 9,16 2,29
3,15 4,09 0,34
4,35 7,84 4,63
5,65 12,32 12,20 4,33
4,76 10,48 5,34
2,47 9,46 10,07 7,25
3,40 9,15 3,07
3,85 8,40 1,87 0,80
4,40 12,86 4,97
7,19 8,05 6,41
7,61 3,49 0,05
8,75
4,80
4,29
6,93 8,76 6,38
6,93 5,57 5,54 1,98
1,82 1,25
6,31 16,53 12,08
5,89 10,12 4,75
2,04 6,82 0,45
1,13 0,84
0,23 1,71 1,89 4,90 3,78
3,19 1,80
5,07 7,03 4,37
7,52 14,54 11,99 6,81
1,67 5,07 8,59 3,81
5,11 15,83 36,80 55,76DowJonesIndus. USA 5,84 18,93 26,21
S&P500 USA 5,06 18,33 27,80
NasdaqComp USA 6,37 25,86 38,56
DJEuroStoxx50 Europe 13,20 21,46
FTSE100 GreatBritain 7,96 16,73 23,16
DAX30 Germany 2,52 15,75 25,61
SwissMarketIndex Switzerland 6,45 18,42 25,00
Nikkei225 Japan 0,82 9,44 28,41
HangSeng HongKong 18,19 45,30
EmergingMarketEquities
S&PAsia50 Asia 3,75 21,84 51,70
CSI300 China 12,83 27,97
SENSEX India 6,09 34,22 71,25
KOSPI SouthKorea 12,44 32,10
TAIEX Taiwan 4,59 13,38 57,17
NewEuropeBlueChip() Europe 4,46 28,52 61,61
MICEX Russia 21,70 32,13 85,70
RTS Russia 34,16 47,55 125,72WIG Poland 6,00 27,38 63,83
PragueStockEx. Czechia 23,49 56,34
PFTS Ukraine 6,34 42,74 53,50 148,10
S&PLatinAmerica40($) SouthAmerica 7,39 30,79 55,24
BOVESPA Brazil 11,60 27,72 50,93
BOLSA Mexico 9,09 30,95 57,01
Bonds
USATreasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,22
EMUBonds Europe 0,49 1,43 2,08 3,44 7,13 7,56
UKGilts GreatBritain 0,60
UABonds Ukraine 9,88 2,46 16,30 116,12
Commodities
Gold 10,88 13,78 11,63
Oil(Brent) 9,35 30,36
Currency
EUR/USD 0,44 7,09
USA Euroarea Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia UkraineS&P500 DJEuroStoxx50 Nik kei225 CSI300 DAX30 FTSE100 BOVESPA WIG PragueSE MICEX PFTS
Changefrom52whigh,% 8,15 12,48 9,55 16,67 10,00 9,07 11,14 10,52 10,83 10,08 4,42Changefrom52wlow,% 58,48 50,91 41,47 50,87 52,83 47,15 76,79 83,29 80,06 122,49 217,65Priceearningsratio,P/E 18,14 18,63 n/a 26,00 28,81 38,35 19,43 n/a 29,59 19,49 n/aPricesalesratio,P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66Pricebookratio,P/BV 2,09 1,28 1,32 3,08 1,43 1,83 1,93 1,40 1,41 1,21 1,41Dividentyields12M,% 2,18 4,20 1,59 1,42 3,75 3,55 3,33 2,39 5,39 1,57 0,03
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Quotations
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarkets Weekly February9,2010
Close WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 186,02,1
13,1
1,3 2,0 0,2
0,4
0,7
2,2
0,7
0,3
3,2
5,9 14,3
0,4
10,8
3,7
0,1 1,5
1,6 2,3
2,9
8,2
3,2
3,2 0,8
0,4
11,8
0,5 1,0
4,0
22,7 46,9
3,0 3,0
41,7
4,8
0,5
2,4 3,3
0,5
2,6
4,3
2,9 2,9
0,4
10,0
0,3
10,4 121,2 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,4 38,6 1,5
Banks
BA VL Raif fei zenBankAval 0,3 1,1 7,7 4,2 4,4
FORM BankForum 8,6 0,6 19,2 42,5 n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 0,1 5,1 16,1 n/a
ROD B Rodov idBank 50,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 n/a
Electricity
CEEN Centerenergo 10,2 1,0 1,5 7,4 47,1 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 670,0 0,0 0,6 371,6 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 60,9 0,7 10,7 32,0 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 333,1 0,9 1,3 107,1 1,1
Electricity
DNON Dniprooblenergo 271,0 0,0 0,0 20,3 0,2HAON Kharkivoblenergo 2,7 0,0 n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 11,2 0,0 0,0 37,2 0,4KREN Krymenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 10,0 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 3,4 0,4 0,7 25,7 29,0 n/a
ALM K Alc hev skIron&Steel 0,2 0,7 52,8 18,9 0,4
DMKD DMKDzerzhynskogo 0,6 1,9 7,8 27,9 2,0 n/a
DMZP DMPPetrovskogo 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 1625,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 43,8 1,0
ENM Z Enakiev oSteel 206,9 22,4 10,1 0,1
KSTL MittalSteelKriviyRigh 13,3 0,0 2,3 30,4 38,0 1,9
MM KI M ariupolIllychIron&Steel 3,0 25,0 143,0 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ DnipropetrovskTW 114,0 0,0 0,0 1,8 n/a n/a
HR TR K ha rts yzs kTW 1,4 0,7 3,0 121,2 1,0
NITR NizhnyodneprovskyTubes 10,0 21,1 0,0 121,2 1,0
NVTR Novomosk ovskTubes 2,4 0,8 14,3 121,2 1,0
Ironore
CGOK CentralMining 3,7 0,0 4,3 28,1 n/a n/a
PGOK PoltavaMining 30,0 9,1 41,1 0,7
SGOK Piv nic hnyMining 5,7 10,5 27,9 59,8 n/a n/a
Coke
AV DK Avdee vkaCoke 11,5 0,3 9,4 2,6 0,1
ALKZ AlchevskCoke 0,4 0,0 11,1 17,6 16,5 n/a
ZACO ZaporizhyaCoke 1,5 0,0 11,1 13,6 0,0
YA SK Ya sino vkaCoke 4,0 25,8 8,6 0,0
Engineerin
AVTO Ukravto 120,0 0,0 2,6 n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 8,5 0,0 n/a 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,3 0,0 n/a 0,9
HMBZ SvitloShahtarya 0,3 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a
KVBZ KriukovCarBuilding 23,8 8,4 39,2 34,3 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 2,8 0,7 0,7 8,6 395,7 0,4LUAZ LUAZ 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,6 0,8
MS ICH M otorSich 1890,0 3,9 14,6 8,7 n/a
MZVM MariupolHeavyEngineering 26,1 4,5 116,4 0,3
SM ASH S umyFrunzeMachinery 69,5 0,1 24,8 19,9 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 5,0 0,0 29,9 38,9 n/a n/a
SVGZ StakhanovskCarBuilding 4,2 5,3 49,6 81,7 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 16,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a 0,9
KF TP KriukovkaCellulose&Paper 32,5 0,0 0,0 7,7 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 364,0 0,8 187,6 0,3
SHCHZ MineKrasnoarmeyskaya 5,2 6,1 16,0 22,8 n/a
SHKD MineKomsomoletsDonbasa 4,5 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a
STIR Stirol 50,8 1,5 6,2 42,9 0,1
Z ABR Z apor iz hyaAbrasives 1,1 0,0 0,0 6,0 1,4 1,2
Z ALK Z apor iz hyaAlluminum 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a
ZF ER Z apori zhy aFerroalloys 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 20,0 n/a
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FCARTCAPITAL
1NarodnohoOpolchennyaStreet,6thfloor
Kyiv,03151Ukraine
.+380(44)4905185,4905184
www.artcapital.com.ua
ResearchDepartment
+38(044)4905185(184)
StanislavZelenetskiy
Analyst
ZhannaShakhno
DariaTereshchuk
Analyst
Sales&TradingDepartment
+38(044)4909246
KonstantinShylin
HeadofSales Department
OlegKirieiev,MBA(ESCPEAP)
InternationalSalesandTrading/[email protected]
ArturRybai
Investmentmanager
+38(044)4909246
AlexandrSaul
Investmentmanager
VitalijBerdichevsky
Investmentmanager
ValeriyDobrovolski
SvetlanaShevchun
Trader
+38(044)4909245
NinaBazarova
Investmentmanager
NikolayMatveev
Investmentmanager
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