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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
FEBRUARY2,2010
UXBrokeUpwiththeWorldIndices
UkrainianMarketLastweekUkrainianStockExchangeincreasedby4.48%to1671.77
points. Trading volumes were quite high mainly due to activity
upon Ukrnafta shares (UNAF +15.32%) hoping to get dividends
onJanuary29,playersactivelyboughtpaperontherumoursabout
closingtheregistryon January28.Thisrace laterculminated into
the big sale on ThursdayFriday. Nevertheless, positive
developmentshave taken place around the same Ukrnafta. First,
the conflict between the state and minority shareholders was
finally resolved (in the future annual dividend payments are
expected). Secondly, the conflict over the ownership of 7 billion
cubicmeters of gas (about$ 2.6billion)was settled in favour of
the company the Kiev Economic Court ordered Ukrtransgaz to
makeacontractwithUkrnaftaunderthedepositof7billioncubic
meters of gas in the underground storage facilities, thereby
acknowledging ownership after the last one. On the other hand,
theconsolidationofcontroloverUkrnaftaby"Privat"groupwith
the signing of the shareholders' agreement may lead to further
Ukrnaftasincome"washingout"infavourofthegroupbecauseof
Privats reluctance to share dividends with NAK Naftogaz.
Amongtheothersignificanteventsthefollowingshouldbenoted:
In AprilMay 2010, Ukraine plans to enter the market of foreign
loans,saidyesterdaytheMinisterofFinanceIgorUmansky.Itwill
bepossibleaftertheadoptionofthelawOnStateBudgetfor2010,
whichwilldeterminethepotentialvolumeoftheloan,hesaid.
Azovmash(MZVM+1.89%andAZGMunch)inthecomingmonths
will deliver Ilyich Iron & Steel Works of Mariupol equipment,
including converter, blast furnace and steelmaking shops. In
particular, on Monday a contract of 160ton converter
componentssupplywassigned,andthelastweek threecharging
devices (diameter4.2m,4.7and5.4m),sevensteel ladlesanda
slagwasordered.Thecompanyspressserviceremindedthatthe
Ilyich Iron & Steel Works of Mariupol is Azovmashs longtimepartner and noted that the company has already begun to
manufactureequipmentunderthecontractsignedonWednesday,
which cost is not disclosed. News is positive for Mariupol Heavy
EngineeringPlant(MZVM),sinceitisengagedinmanufacturingof
steelequipment.
Although UX moved counter to the world's major stock indices
mainlyon thedomestic news, the main focus for localareas will
continuetobetheworldsituation.
WorldEquityIndices
Index Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%
Dow Jones Indus. USA 1,17 1,17 1,17
S&P 500 USA 1,43 1,43 1,43
Nasdaq Comp USA 1,11 1,11 1,11
DAX30 Germany 0,81 0,81 0,81
FTSE-100 Great Britain 1,14 1,14 1,14
NIKKEI-225 Japan 0,07 0,07 0,07
RTS Russia -0,20 -0,20 -0,20
-0,56 -0,80 -0,80Poland
Czech Repu 1,00 1,00 1,00
PFTS Ukraine
UX Ukraine
WSE WIG
Prague Stock Ex.
-0,63 -0,63 -0,63
-0,79 -0,79 -0,79
CommoditiesandCurrencies
DTD,% W TD,% M TD,% YT D,%Gold 1,70 1,70 0,26 24,82
BrentCrudeOil 2,11 2,11 6,99
2,86 0,42
22,14
EUR/USD 0,38 0,38
CurrencyExchangeRate
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
16.09.2009 16.10.2009 16.11.2009 16.12.2009 16.01.2010
UAH/100USD
Officialechangerate
Interbank(bid)
Interbank(ask)
UXIndex
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
02.
04.
2009
24.
04.
2009
20.
05.
2009
11.
06.
2009
03.
07.
2009
24.
07.
2009
14.
08.
2009
07.
09.
2009
28.
09.
2009
19.
10.
2009
09.
11.
2009
30.
11.
2009
21.
12.
2009
15.
01.
2010
Volume,mlnUAH
0
225
450
675
900
1125
1350
1575
1800UX
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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
FEBRUARY2,2010
Mostliquidshares
Ticker
Average
Price, WOW,% M TD ,% Y TD ,%
ALMK 0,22 -0,69 6,88 57,66
AVDK 11,51 0,09 1,23 9,10
AZST 3,39 0,59 3,13 25,56
BAVL 0,27 1,48 5,14 8,11
CEEN 10,05 0,00 1,11 5,79
ENMZ 210,40 0,18 3,52 24,51
FORM 7,25 1,12 12,23 20,83
MSICH 1847,00 1,51 6,15 12,01
SMASH 70,00 0,85 0,84 25,67
STIR 49,98 4,56
UNAF 198,99 7,21 18,07
USCB 0,37 0,95 5,34UTLM 0,45 0,90
-1,79 -0,52
-7,03
-0,43-0,88 -0,22
YASK 4,00 0,25 4,44 27,39
ZAEN 331,00 0,30 2,48 0,67
TopGainers,Losers,MostActivelyTraded(25.01.10)
MostActivelyTraded,UAHths
2437,8
2352,1
2088,7
3424,9
4264,2UNAF
ENMZ
AZST
AVDK
ALMK
TopGainers,UAHths
2,2%
1,6%
1,5%
1,5%
1,1%
SVGZ
SHCHZ
MSICH
BAVL
FORM
TopLosers,UAHths1,4%
1,5%
1,8%
1,8%
7,0%UNAF
LTPL
STIR
MZVM
DOEN
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WeeklyForecasts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February 2,2010
Chart1.UXweeklychart
Source:ArtCapital
LastweekUkrainianStockExchange increasedby4.48%to1671.77points.Wesawanotherunsuccessfulattemptof
the indextoentrench inthelongtermuptrend,aswellastobreakthelevelof50%correctionofJanuary2008(see
weeklychart).
On the daily chart it is shownhowUX rested against the1682 points,while on Fridaywe saw the socalledcandle
"hangingman",whichusuallysignstheendofanupwardtrend.
Asaresultwestillremainshortterm"bears".
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WeeklyForecasts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February 2,2010
Chart2.UXDailychart
Source:ArtCapital
StanislavZelenetskiy
Analyst
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WeeklyForecasts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February 2,2010
0,02,5
5,0
7,510,0
12,5
15,0
17,520,0
22,525,0
27,5
30,032,5
35,0
37,5
40,042,5
45,0
47,5
50,0
52,555,0
57,5
60,0
62,565,0
67,5
70,0
72,575,0
77,5
80,082,5
85,087,5
90,0
92,5
95,097,5
100,0
28.
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Volume,mln
800820840860880900
9209409609801000102010401060108011001120114011601180120012201240126012801300
13201340136013801400142014401460148015001520154015601580160016201640166016801700
UXIndex
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WorldIndicesDynamic
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly February2,2010
DevelopedMarketEquities 5Days,% 1Month,% 3Month,% 6Month,% 9Month,% 1Year,%
WorldMarket
Capitalization
1,72
4,11
0,49 2,33
0,76 2,32
2,26 4,32
5,79
3,06
5,09
0,76
0,46 3,24 0,46
7,45 4,69 1,22
5,94
1,43 11,83 8,23 15,72
6,35
1,17 4,54
0,47 8,10
0,56 0,62
0,46
7,55
2,94
0,72 5,38
0,16
0,10 1,87 1,46 3,07 0,31
0,42
0,42 1,41 0,20
1,06 8,91 10,61 7,21
1,27 3,22 5,60 3,84
2,39 7,14 27,02 44,00DowJonesIndus. USA 4,23 9,75 21,11 23,15
S&P500 USA 4,19 8,62 20,04 25,21
NasdaqComp USA 5,54 8,94 26,51 36,42
DJEuroStoxx50 Europe 0,21 2,99 5,68 16,09 18,92
FTSE100 GreatBritain 0,57 4,17 12,92 19,30 21,82
DAX30 Germany 0,20 5,63 5,63 17,70 21,16
SwissMarketIndex Switzerland 0,36 4,55 9,89 21,98 25,93
Nikkei225 Japan 4,10 8,73 28,06
HangSeng HongKong 1,05 17,57 47,02
EmergingMarketEquities
S&PAsia50 Asia 0,02 1,70 5,42 20,16 51,83
CSI300 China 13,94 37,27
SENSEX India 0,41 6,17 2,84 34,98 70,66
KOSPI SouthKorea 3,65 3,01 14,66 33,57
TAIEX Taiwan 2,75 9,88 14,48 67,42
NewEuropeBlueChip() Europe 2,05 3,53 9,35 12,62 31,78 55,60
MICEX Russia 1,85 3,43 16,30 30,70 40,07 102,81
RTS Russia 1,69 1,81 12,69 34,41 56,08 158,42WIG Poland 6,27 14,59 33,70 62,39
PragueStockEx. Czechia 0,29 6,37 6,88 6,07 20,94 56,16
PFTS Ukraine 9,95 6,99 44,84 57,62 146,13
S&PLatinAmerica40($) SouthAmerica 1,59 0,57 12,77 38,31 60,66
BOVESPA Brazil 2,31 6,27 18,07 32,99 58,13
BOLSA Mexico 5,21 8,22 28,84 47,98
Bonds
USATreasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 2,80 0,07 0,28
EMUBonds Europe 1,05 0,72 2,52 4,70 8,14
UKGilts GreatBritain 0,40
UABonds Ukraine 9,06 15,61 9,59 22,92 103,14
Commodities
Gold 12,37 18,29 21,34
Oil(Brent) 13,15 27,77
Currency
EUR/USD 3,48 6,17
USA Euroarea Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia UkraineS&P500 DJEuroStoxx50 Nik kei225 CSI300 DAX30 FTSE100 BOVESPA WIG PragueSE MICEX PFTS
Changefrom52whigh,% 5,32 8,25 5,56 17,27 7,22 6,30 6,33 4,77 3,02 4,99 4,81Changefrom52wlow,% 63,35 58,22 47,71 55,01 57,56 51,63 86,36 95,07 95,83 135,10 216,35Priceearningsratio,P/E 18,74 20,85 n/a 26,05 54,99 53,94 20,55 n/a 31,99 21,06 n/aPricesalesratio,P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66Pricebookratio,P/BV 2,16 1,34 1,38 3,07 1,48 1,92 2,04 1,50 1,54 1,28 1,40Dividentyields12M,% 2,14 4,09 1,52 1,42 3,63 3,56 3,16 2,25 4,95 1,49 0,03
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Quotations
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarkets Weekly February2,2010
Close WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/EBITDA EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 199,07,0
7,0
0,9 0,9
0,4 0,4
2,5
1,4 1,4
3,2
8,9
0,4
10,8
0,7 0,7
0,3 0,3
0,7 0,7
8,2
20,6
6,4
22,7 22,7 46,9
41,7
1,8
1,8
1,5 1,5
4,3
1,3 1,3
10,0
1,8 1,8
18,1 121,2 11,9 1,0
UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,4 0,9 38,6 7,8 1,5
Banks
BAVL Raiffei zenBankAval 0,3 1,5 1,5 8,1 4,2 n/a 4,4
FORM BankForum 7,3 1,1 1,1 20,8 n/a n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 5,3 16,1 n/a n/a
RODB R odo vidBank 50,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,5 n/a n/a
ElectricityCEEN Centerenergo 10,1 0,0 0,0 5,8 47,1 34,3 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 668,0 0,3 0,3 371,6 #N/AN/A 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 60,5 10,0 32,0 239,7 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 331,0 0,3 0,3 0,7 107,1 1445,1 1,1
ElectricityDNON Dniprooblenergo 271,0 0,0 0,0 20,3 n/a 0,2HAON Kharkivoblenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 11,2 0,0 0,0 37,2 n/a 0,4KREN Krymenergo 2,9 0,0 0,0 10,0 n/a 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 3,4 0,6 0,6 25,6 29,0 n/a n/a
ALMK AlchevskIron&Steel 0,2 57,7 18,9 15,4 0,4
DMKD DMKDzerzhynskogo 0,5 0,0 0,0 18,6 1,8 n/a n/a
DMZP DMPPetrovskogo 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 1625,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 51,0 14,1 1,0
ENMZ EnakievoSteel 210,4 0,2 0,2 24,5 10,1 32,8 0,1
KSTL MittalSteelKriviyRigh 13,0 0,0 0,0 27,5 37,1 14,6 1,9
MM KI MariupolIllychIron&Steel 3,1 27,5 145,7 15,6 0,1
Tubes
DTRZ DnipropetrovskTW 114,0 0,0 0,0 1,8 n/a n/a n/a
HRTR KhartsyzskTW 1,4 5,3 121,2 11,9 1,0
NITR NizhnyodneprovskyTubes 10,0 0,0 0,0 121,2 11,9 1,0
NVTR NovomoskovskTubes 2,4 0,8 0,8 14,3 121,2 11,9 1,0
IronoreCGOK CentralMining 3,5 0,0 0,0 22,8 n/a n/a n/a
PG OK Polta vaMining 30,4 0,5 0,5 10,5 41,6 11,0 0,7
SGOK P ivnichnyMining 4,5 0,0 0,0 25,0 n/a n/a n/a
Coke
AVD K A vdeevkaCoke 11,5 0,1 0,1 9,1 331,8 5,0 0,1
ALKZ AlchevskCoke 0,4 0,0 0,0 5,9 15,0 7,9 n/a
ZACO ZaporizhyaCoke 1,4 0,0 0,0 12,3 0,1 0,0
YA SK YasinovkaCoke 4,0 0,3 0,3 27,4 8,8 4,9 0,0
Engineerin
AVTO Ukravto 117,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 8,5 n/a 352,8 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,9
HMB Z SvitloShahtarya 0,3 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a n/a
KVBZ KriukovCarBuilding 22,1 0,7 0,7 29,2 31,9 31,1 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 2,7 5,9 385,7 37,9 0,4LUAZ LUAZ 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,6 67,8 0,8
MS ICH Mo torSich 1847,0 1,5 1,5 12,0 8,5 6,6 n/a
MZVM MariupolHeavyEngineering 26,6 6,4 116,4 17,7 0,3
SMASH S umyFrunzeMachinery 70,0 0,9 0,9 25,7 20,1 7,9 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 3,9 0,0 0,0 6,9 n/a n/a n/a
SVGZ StakhanovskCarBuilding 4,1 2,3 2,3 45,4 81,7 47,9 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 16,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a 0,9
KFTP KriukovkaCellulose&Paper 32,5 0,0 0,0 7,7 2,3 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 370,0 2,5 190,7 n/a 0,3
SHCHZ MineKrasnoarmeyskaya 5,0 1,6 1,6 11,1 21,8 n/a n/a
SHKD MineKomsomoletsDonbasa 4,5 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a n/a
STIR Stirol 50,0 4,6 42,9 19,1 0,1
ZABR ZaporizhyaAbrasives 1,1 0,0 0,0 6,0 1,4 n/a 1,2
ZALK ZaporizhyaAlluminum 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 n/a n/a n/a
ZFER Za po rizhyaFerroalloys 0,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 20,0 n/a n/a
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FCARTCAPITAL
1NarodnohoOpolchennyaStreet,6thfloor
Kyiv,03151Ukraine
.+380(44)4905185,4905184
www.artcapital.com.ua
ResearchDepartment
+38(044)4905185(184)
StanislavZelenetskiy
Analyst
ZhannaShakhno
DariaTereshchuk
Analyst
Sales&TradingDepartment
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KonstantinShylin
HeadofSales Department
OlegKirieiev,MBA(ESCPEAP)
InternationalSalesandTrading/[email protected]
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Investmentmanager
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Trader
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