Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools2014-15 IPSAC and Land Use ReportOPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON

C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY

S E P TE MB E R 2 9 , 2 0 1 5

About ITRE and OREd

The Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) is an inter-institutional research center serves all 16 statewide University of North Carolina systems and partners.

ITRE conducts surface, water, and air transportation research, while providing professional training and technical assistance.

The Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) assists K-12 school systems by providing decision management tools for issues pertaining to student assignment and long-range school planning.

OREd uses GIS analysis, mathematical modeling, and decision science applications to guide school districts to planning solutions that are driven by data and supported by district policy.

www.itre.ncsu.edu/OREdhttp://ored-outcomes.itre.ncsu.edu/

• Alamance-Burlington School System – 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13

• Asheboro City Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07• Berkeley County Schools (SC) – 09, 10, 11, 12• Bladen County Schools – 04• Buncombe County Schools – 98, 99• Brunswick County Schools – 03, 04• Carteret County Schools – 09• Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 05,

06, 07, 12• Chatham County Schools – 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13• Craven County Schools – 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07,

08, 12, 14• Cumberland County Schools – 08, 09• Cleveland County Schools – 08• Currituck County Schools – 09• Duplin County Schools – 09• Durham Public Schools – 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• Edgecombe County Public Schools – 09 • Elizabeth City-Pasquotank County Schools – 07• Franklin County Schools – 08, 11, 12• Iredell-Statesville Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Jones County Schools – 09• Johnston County Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04,

05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14• Gaston County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Granville County Schools – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10• Guilford County Schools – 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14• Harnett County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14

• Haywood County Schools – 99• Hoke County Schools – 99, 08, 09, 11, 12• Lee County Schools – 08, 09• Lenoir County School – 09• Moore County Schools – 04, 06, 07, 08, 12, 13, 14• Mooresville Graded Schools – 99, 00, 01, 04 • Nash-Rocky Mount Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• New Hanover County Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00• Onslow County Schools – 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,

14, 15• Orange County Schools – 95, 09, 10, 11, 13• Pamlico County Schools – 09• Pender County Schools – 09, 13, 14• Randolph County Schools – 05, 06, 07, 08, 09• Richmond County Schools – 00, 08• Robeson County Schools – 08• Rock Hill Schools (SC) – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13• Rowan County Schools – 09, 15• Pitt County Schools – 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01,

02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13• Stafford County Public Schools (VA) – 12, 13• Stanly County Schools – 12• Stokes County Schools – 05, 06, 08• Tupelo Public Schools (MS) – 07• Union County Schools – 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07• Vance County Schools – 09• Wayne County Schools – 95• Wake County Public School System – 97, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14, 15

OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA R C H A N D E D U C AT I ON

Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)

Providing school districts with GIS and Decision Management applications for analysis and planning. Depending on district needs and data requirements, IPSAC typically includes one or more of these services:

Membership Forecasts GIS/Land Use Studies Out-of-Capacity Analysis School Site Optimization Attendance Boundary Optimization

Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)

OutlineUpdated System-wide K-12 10-Year Forecast

Land Use StudyAnalysis and interviews focused on where student population growth/loss occurs within the district.

Out-of-Capacity TablesSchool-level forecasts combined with school capacity data which highlight immediate and long-range facility needs.

WSFCS System-wide K-12 Forecast

Month-1 ADM trend: + 419 K-12 per year

County RLB trend:- 57 RLB per year

WSFCS System-wide K-12 Forecast

OREd uses a number of forecast models for a system-wide forecast. All models are generally consistent for the first few years.

WSFCS System-wide K-12 Forecast

Optimal (4,3,2,1) Forecast Model Result: K-12 Annual growth rate: 0.42%

22,360- ES Capacity

9,677- MS Capacity

A report focused on forecasting student population growth/loss within the district.

ComponentsInterviews with major planning agencies

GIS Analysis

Economic and Demographic trends

The full report is available

OREd Land Use Study

OREd Land Use Study (LUS)LUS Planner Input Regions

Student Population Growth Potential

Current - 2024

High

Low

OREd Land Use Study (LUS)GIS Analysis

Oak Hill Place is a small subdivision in southeastern Forsyth County.

79 developed lots on which 64 students reside (31-15-18).

SGR of 0.81 students per residence.

New phase: 34 lots.

If 34 new are developed they could add 28 students. (34 lots x 0.81 students /lot)

Over/Under Capacity by Zone (2019-20)

Forecasted Membership above Zone Building Capacities

Zone 8:969

Zone 1:475

Zone 5:202

Zone 2:372

Zone 4:308

High

Low

Elementary

Zone 7:54

Zone 6:471

Zone 3:314

7

Over/Under Capacity by Zone (2019-20)

Southwest:1107

Southeast:645

Midwest:595

East:84

North:389

High

Low

Middle School

Forecasted Membership above Zone Building Capacities

Out-of-Capacity Table

School-level forecasts combined with school capacity data which highlight immediate and long-range facility needs.

Building capacity (Brick-and-mortar capacity)Capacities from WSFCS

Out-of-Capacity TableContext and Limitations

School level forecasts may be significantly affected by future Board of Education policies such as:

Changes to Zone boundariesChanges to schools included in each ZoneOut of Zone student transfersChanges to magnet programs

Out-of-Capacity: Elementary

Percent UtilizationBased on Building Capacity

Limited student data available

Out-of-Capacity: Elementary

Percent UtilizationBased on Building Capacity

Limited data available

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Building Capacity Servicable Capacity Zone 8 ES ADM

Elementary Capacities: Case Study

Lack of capacity in elementary level in south

Zone 8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Serviceable Capacity includes mobile units

Out-of-Capacity: Middle

Percent UtilizationBased on Building Capacity

Limited data available

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Building Capacity Servicable Capacity MS ADM

Middle Capacities: Case Study

Lack of capacity in middle school in south

SW and SE Zones

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Serviceable Capacity includes mobile units

Out-of-Capacity: High

Percent UtilizationBased on Building Capacity

Limited data available

Summary

No decline in student membership expected

Immediate capacity needs

Need for ES and MS capacity especially in the south

Capacity needs will continue to increase

Level Over Capacity2019-20

Change from Current

Elementary 3194 (+ 533)Middle 2855 (+ 266)High 651 (+ 100)

Forecasted membership beyond current building capacity in 2019-20 (5 years)

* Includes special needs students

Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools2014-15 IPSAC and Land Use ReportOPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON

C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY

S E P TE MB E R 2 9 , 2 0 1 5