Wind Energy Feasibility

Taylor R. Edwards

Scenario

Client seeking risk analysis and turbine recommendation

Coastal residential property

Humboldt County, CA

PG&E

http://edcallaert.photoshelter.com/image/I0000XV7mSClolgw

Procedure

Wind speed data

Energy productio

n

AnnualRevenue

Feasibility

calculations

Engineering

Economics

Wind Turbines Tested

Turbine make and model Power Rating (kW)

Bergey XL-1 1

Jacobs J31-20 20

Vestas V29/225 225

Micon NM44 750

General Electric 1.5S 1,500

Wind Speed Data

Data 54 years of data Recorded at 10 meters

Average speed 7.5 m/s

Foreign data

Kernel Density Estimation

Kernel Density Estimation

Probability of Present Value

Turbines are compared using respective present values that are estimated to have 95% probability of being met or exceeded The 5th percentile present value

Probability of negative present value

Probability Calculations

Random sampling

5th percentile present value

Probability of negative present value, loss on investment

Results

Turbine 5th Percentile Present Value

Probability of Negative Present Value

Bergey XL-1 $62 0.0405

Jacobs J31-20 ($5372) 0.1506

Vestas V29/225 $111,298 0.0088

Micon NM44 ($123,450) 0.1047

General Electric 1.5S $848,336 0.0104

General Electric 1.5S

1,500 kW turbine is most suitable

http://www.ge-energy.com/products_and_services/products/wind_turbines/ge_1.5_77_wind_turbine.jsp

Energy to Money

http://sfbayview.com/2011/pge-disregards-precautionary-principle-with-smart-meters/

http://reich-chemistry.wikispaces.com/Mann.+McLaughlin

Peter Alstone, SERC

Wind Speed to Energy Produced

Results

Wind turbine Payback time (yrs) Net gain on investment(1x106)

GE 1.5S 9.6 $3.17

Micon NM82 8.8 $3.69

Nordex S70 9.9 $2.98

Results

Wind turbine Return on Investment Rate of Return

GE 1.5S 75.8% 10.3%

Micon NM82 86% 11.2%

Nordex S70 71.7% 10.0%

Results

Wind turbine Annual earning, 90% probability exceedance (1x103)

GE 1.5S $316

Micon NM82 $342

Nordex S70 $307

Probability Density Function

Type I Extremal

Results

Wind turbine Payback time (years)

Net gain on investment (1x103)

Bergey XL-1 11.6 $2.5

Jacobs J31-20 13.9 $23

Vestas V29/225 9.8 $456

Micon NM44 13.5 $798

GE 1.5S 9.6 $3,183

Results

Wind turbine Return on Investment Rate of Return

Bergey XL-1 56% 8.5%

Jacobs J31-20 38% 7.3%

Vestas V29/225 74% 10.1%

Micon NM44 41% 7.7%

GE 1.5S 76% 10.3%