wind energy and climate policy
TRANSCRIPT
Wind energy and Climate policy Fixing the Emission Trading System
Rémi Gruet Senior Advisor - Climate Change & Environment
European Wind Energy Association 1st February 2012
EWEA Members – Across entire supply chain
Outline
• EU power – A clear shift towards renewables
• Reducing emissions is possible - 30% is a minimum
• Macro-economic benefits of wind
• Fixing the Emission Trading System
• Additional content
Current status
2.5 3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7
12.9 17.3
23.1 28.5
34.4 40.5
48.0
56.5
64.7
75.1
84.6
94
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cumulative installations in EU (GW)
0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7
3.2 3.2
4.4
5.9 5.5
5.8 6.2
7.6
8.5 8.3
10.5
9.6 9.6
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual installations in EU (GW)
EU installed power generating capacity per year (MW)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Wind PV Large hydro Geothermal Biomass Waste Small hydro
CSP Ocean Gas Coal Nuclear Fuel oil Peat
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Net electricity generating installations
in EU 2000-2011 (GW)
116
84
47
4 3 2 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.01
-10 -14 -14 20
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gas Large hydro
PV Wind Bio- mass
Waste CSP Small hydro
Geo- thermal
Peat Ocean Coal Nuclear Fuel oil
Wind and nuclear – 2/3
New global annual wind and nuclear capacity from 2001 to 2010
+ 47% more wind capacity
installed in 2010 than nuclear
capacity during the decade.
Source: EWEA – 2010 production from Wind compared to 2008 consumption
Wind is a key generation technology
in several EU Member States
Wind share of electricity consumption
0%
0%
0%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.3%
1.7%
2.3%
2.8%
2.9%
3%
3.3 %
3.4%
3.7%
4.2%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
4.5%
5.2%
5.4%
6.3%
10.6%
12.0%
15.6%
15.9%
25.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Malta
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Czech…
Latvia
Luxembourg
Hungary
Poland
France
Belgium
Lithuania
Austria
Bulgaria
Romania
Italy
Netherlands
Estonia
UK
Sweden
Greece
Cyprus
EU
Germany
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Denmark
Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2011 (MW)
IRELAND
1,631 UNITED
KINGDOM
6,540 NETHERLANDS
2,328
GERMANY
29,060 BELGIUM
1,078
FRANCE
6,800
SPAIN
21,674
LUXEMBOURG
44
CZECH
REPUBLIC
217
NORWAY
520
SWEDEN
2,907
FINLAND
197
POLAND
1,616
AUSTRIA
1,084 SWITZERLAND
46
ITALY
6,747
SLOVENIA
0 CROATIA
131
HUNGARY
329
SLOVAKIA
3
FYROM
0
ROMANIA
982
BULGARIA
612
GREECE
1,629
UKRAINE
151
LITHUANIA
179
LATVIA
31
ESTONIA
184
TURKEY
1,799
FAROE ISLANDS
4
PORTUGAL
4,083
CYPRUS
134
MALTA
0
European Union: 93,957 MW Candidate countries: 1,930 MW EFTA: 565 MW Total Europe: 96,607 MW
DENMARK
3,871
Wind installed capacity -
Development and 230GW scenario to 2020
2011 Capacity: 94 GW Production: 206 TWh 6.3% of EU Demand
2020 230GW 581 TWh 16% of EU demand
Similar targets in other 2020 scenarios…
IEA = 199 GW NREAPs = 213 GW EC = 222 GW
Outline of presentation
• EU power – A clear shift towards renewables
• Reducing emissions is possible - 30% is a minimum
• Fixing the Emission Trading System
• Macro-economic benefits of wind
• Additional content
EWEA Report – Wind Energy and EU climate policy
• Objectives:
• Evaluating mitigation
potential of wind energy
• Examining EU targets and
UNFCCC pledges
• Analysing the EU
Emission Trading System
• Conclusions on the ideal
climate policy mix
31%
30%
Wind power will avoid as much CO2 as...
31% of the EU’s
Kyoto target
31% of the EU’s
20% target
20% of the EU’s
30% Target
2011
140 Mt
2020
342 Mt
2020
342 Mt
Renewable electricity makes a move to 30% possible in the EU
20%
20%
31%
Wind power = domestic reductions
• EU climate package allows for about 60% CDM/JI
• Domestic reductions can be only 40% of the total effort
31%
30%
39%
Renewables
Wind energy
Wind power = domestic reductions
• EU climate package allows for about 60% CDM/JI
• Domestic reductions can be only 40% of the total effort
31%
30%
39%
Renewables
Wind energy
20%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Mt
Reduction Effort and wind-avoided CO2
Kyoto Protocol + Climate Package (2008-2020)
Emission Reduction Effort
Wind-avoided CO2 Emissions
EU-27’s Kyoto Target
(7,8%)
Wind-avoided CO2 = 35% of
EU Kyoto target EU 2020 target
= 20% of EU GHG emissions
Wind-avoided CO2 = 31% of
EU 2020 target
EU 2020 – Wind power versus car emissions
2010 – Wind avoids
126 MtCO2, eq. to
64 million cars
30% of EU fleet !
2020 – wind avoids
342 MtCO2, eq. to
173 million cars
81% of EU fleet !
EU fleet - 214 million cars
Global Wind contribution to Cancun pledges
Source: UNFCCC Secretariat – FCCC/KP/AWG/2009/10/Add.4/Rev.2
Aggregated Annex I pledges
12%-18% of 1990 emissions
Versus Global Wind in 2020
– 1081 GW installed capacity
– 2650 TWh produced
1591 Mt CO2 avoided
-22 to 25%
69% of Annex I
2020 pledges (12%)
36% of Annex I
2010 Kyoto target
2011
Annex I - Global Wind in 2020 will avoid… Copenhagen pledges: 12-18% reduction
2020
46% of Annex I
2020 pledges (18%)
36% 46% 69%
2020
Report conclusions on Wind energy and climate policy
• Wind - Extensive development of wind energy will significantly reduce emissions
– In EU, as much as 31% of the current EU GHG target
– Renewable electricity could avoid 100% of EU domestic reductions
– Wind globally could reduce emissions as much as 69% of pledges
• EU policy framework
– A move to 30% reduction is very achievable
– ETS is undermined by economic crisis and needs fixing
• UNFCCC: Annex I pledges are much too low and need raising
Climate signals to investors are rapidly disappearing !
Outline of presentation
• EU power – A clear shift towards renewables
• Reducing emissions is possible - 30% is a minimum
• Fixing the Emission Trading System
• Macro-economic benefits of wind
• Additional content
Current build-out of the oversupply to 2020
Backloading 900M allowances has a limited impact
Backloading 1,2bn Allowances is still not enough
The ETS – a hidden subsidy to heavy industry
34% oversupply for heavy industry = low CO2-price - €7.89
The ETS – A hidden subsidy to heavy industry
• Heavy industry
– has received too many free EUAs
– sells them on the market (or saves them for later use)
• The power sector
– doesn’t have enough free EUAs
– buys them cheaply to heavy industry via the market
– Passes 100% of the cost of carbon to electricity consumers
• Conclusion:
– EU electricity consumers pay a subsidy to heavy industry via
their electricity bill and electricity companies
– Power sector and heavy industry don’t need to reduce
emissions
Outline of presentation
• EU power goes renewable
• Reducing emissions is possible - 30% is a minimum
• Fixing the Emission Trading System
• Macro-economic benefits of wind
• Additional content
Wind brings macro-economic benefits
• Energy security (EU = 54% dependence)
• Savings from fossil fuel imports (€40bn @ 88$/bbl)
• Avoided health/environmental costs
• Zero fuel/CO2 fluctuation risk
• Jobs
– 188,000 in 2010
– 450,000 in 2020
• Lower electricity prices – the “Merit Order Effect”
• Export opportunities / Market
54% EU Energy dependency , and growing…
Source: European Commission, 2008
83% import dependency
61% dependency
41% dependency
? dependency
0% dependency
% of imports in EU consumption
EU market dominated by EU manufacturer s - 2006 to 2011
95% 97% 96% 96% 98%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU USA Chinese Indian Japanese Others
Source: BTM Consulting data for 2006-2009 and MAKE Consulting data for 2010-2011
Competitiveness – EU manufacturers are leading on world markets
2011 - Market share per turbine manufacturers
85%
5% 10%
EU 27
56% 32%
7% 5%
USA
6% 2%
79%
13% PR China
55% 45%
India
Source: MAKE Consulting data
Wind and PV today represent more jobs than nuclear
wind PVcoal &lignite
gas steel cement nuclear wind 2020
Employment 238.154 265.000 308.739 265.731 355.400 48.000 500.000 520.659
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
Source: EWEA, EPIA, EURACOAL, EUROGAS, EUROFER, CEMBUREAU, FORATOM
Wind creates more jobs per kWh than conventional power
6.3%
25,4%
22,4%
26,6%
15,7%
28,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
wind coal & lignite gas nuclear wind 2020 wind 2030Number of employees % of EU demand
Jobs (000)
Source: EWEA, EPIA, EURACOAL, EUROGAS, EUROFER, CEMBUREAU, FORATOM
PRIMES 2009 update for electricity consumption
Wind creates more jobs per kWh than conventional power
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
wind coal & lignite gas nuclear
Employment per TWh of electricity produced, 2010
wind coal & lignite gas nuclear
Source: EWEA, EURACOAL, EUROGAS, FORATOM
PRIMES 2009 update for electricity consumption
More
Wind
Power market - Wind pushes marginally
expensive technologies out of market…
Emitting
plants are
pushed off
the market
... And lowers electricity prices and CO2 emissions
So
urc
e: P
öyr
y –
Win
d P
ow
er
an
d e
lectr
icit
y p
rice
s
Global Wind installations per region 2003- 2011
Conclusions
• The World will reduce emissions and has already started
– We can either develop our climate products today
– or wait and buy everybody else’s…
• The EU has a technological advantage in renewables
To maintain/enhance EU competitiveness we need:
– Climate signals
• Ambitious climate action : 30% domestic reductions
• Higher price of carbon
backloading of allowances in ETS
structural measures to reform the ETS and re-install scarcity
– 2030 Renewable energy targets
• ETS auctioning revenue to fund investments
• A market-ready pan-European grid
• Financing the SET-plan - leadership through innovation
www.ewea.org
Tel: +32 2 213 1836
M: +32 473 506 423
E-mail: [email protected]
During this presentation EU wind turbines saved 2,700 tCO2
Thank you very much!
